Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   17  2 421 295  0.104  9.702    1  0.675    1  0.665    1  0.387    1 0.6521   24  1.044    8  0.226    1  0.548
INDIANAPOLIS  14  5 540 401  0.193 10.347    2  0.471    2  0.453    2  0.322    2 0.6067    2  1.564    1  0.866   23 -0.222
TENNESSEE     13  5 469 358  0.171  9.632    3  0.420    3  0.412    4  0.293    3 0.5963    5  1.438    3  0.650   18 -0.065
KANSAS CITY   13  4 515 370 -0.047  7.597    4  0.364    4  0.350    6  0.189    7 0.5527    1  1.571    2  0.743   27 -0.366
PHILADELPHIA  13  5 397 318 -0.007  8.717    5  0.341    5  0.325    7  0.171    5 0.5817   14  1.170   11  0.165    9  0.177
CAROLINA      14  6 426 372  0.004  9.765    6  0.330    6  0.317    8  0.152    4 0.5820   17  1.110   13  0.070    7  0.233
ST LOUIS      12  5 470 357 -0.095  7.542    7  0.245    7  0.227    9  0.132    9 0.5337    3  1.445    5  0.499   24 -0.235
MIAMI         10  6 311 261  0.059  8.131    8  0.204    8  0.186   11  0.112    6 0.5623   28  0.960   19 -0.147    3  0.371
GREEN BAY     11  7 492 354  0.025  8.717    9  0.167   10  0.145    3  0.322   11 0.5185    8  1.348    4  0.552   14  0.091
DENVER        10  7 391 342  0.063  8.638   10  0.158    9  0.151   15  0.037   10 0.5186   15  1.162   16  0.021   15  0.054
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SEATTLE       10  7 431 360  0.006  8.147   11  0.118   11  0.107   10  0.129   13 0.5021    9  1.322    7  0.324   19 -0.065
BALTIMORE     10  7 408 301 -0.044  7.867   12  0.100   12  0.080    5  0.224   14 0.5015   16  1.156    9  0.200    6  0.248
DALLAS        10  7 299 289 -0.112  7.794   13  0.083   13  0.061   19 -0.049    8 0.5385   29  0.921   25 -0.351    5  0.253
MINNESOTA      9  7 416 353 -0.105  7.134   14  0.029   14  0.002   13  0.042   17 0.4877    4  1.441    6  0.403   25 -0.320
NEW ORLEANS    8  8 340 326 -0.007  7.899   15  0.010   15 -0.014   16  0.037   12 0.5124   13  1.192   14  0.059   16  0.015
CINCINNATI     8  8 346 384 -0.107  7.507   16 -0.034   16 -0.064   23 -0.146   21 0.4668    7  1.401   12  0.159   31 -0.451
TAMPA BAY      7  9 301 264  0.039  7.993   17 -0.068   17 -0.098   12  0.054   15 0.4950   30  0.859   23 -0.317    2  0.425
SAN FRANCISCO  7  9 384 337  0.004  7.833   18 -0.087   19 -0.119   14  0.039   23 0.4590   12  1.289   10  0.188   21 -0.110
CHICAGO        7  9 283 346 -0.075  7.887   19 -0.104   18 -0.119   21 -0.114   25 0.4543   27  0.979   27 -0.351   12  0.123
BUFFALO        6 10 243 279  0.070  8.593   20 -0.133   20 -0.150   22 -0.130   16 0.4948   32  0.740   32 -0.624    4  0.365
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
N.Y. JETS      6 10 283 299  0.023  8.179   21 -0.161   21 -0.189   17  0.000   18 0.4846   23  1.048   20 -0.155   10  0.156
HOUSTON        5 11 255 380  0.127  9.191   22 -0.185   22 -0.191   25 -0.195   19 0.4752   22  1.062   24 -0.335   17 -0.056
PITTSBURGH     6 10 300 327 -0.041  7.918   23 -0.203   23 -0.214   20 -0.067   27 0.4358   25  1.040   22 -0.233   13  0.099
JACKSONVILLE   5 11 276 331  0.100  8.790   24 -0.215   24 -0.226   18 -0.034   20 0.4685   26  1.030   21 -0.211   11  0.143
ATLANTA        5 11 299 422  0.006  8.448   25 -0.249   25 -0.254   26 -0.197   22 0.4603   10  1.307   17 -0.023   29 -0.371
CLEVELAND      5 11 254 322 -0.020  8.295   26 -0.272   26 -0.280   24 -0.194   28 0.4272   31  0.831   31 -0.594    8  0.206
DETROIT        5 11 270 379 -0.063  8.240   27 -0.280   27 -0.289   27 -0.221   29 0.4256   20  1.069   26 -0.351   20 -0.090
WASHINGTON     5 11 287 372 -0.066  7.908   28 -0.292   28 -0.302   28 -0.260   24 0.4577   11  1.292   18 -0.105   30 -0.414
ARIZONA        4 12 225 452 -0.017  8.477   29 -0.339   29 -0.350   32 -0.456   30 0.4057   19  1.104   30 -0.544   28 -0.367
N.Y. GIANTS    4 12 243 387 -0.054  8.268   30 -0.354   30 -0.367   31 -0.438   26 0.4428   18  1.109   29 -0.521   26 -0.355
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
OAKLAND        4 12 270 379 -0.049  8.121   31 -0.365   31 -0.380   30 -0.290   31 0.4000   21  1.064   28 -0.426   22 -0.153
SAN DIEGO      4 12 313 441 -0.058  8.037   32 -0.374   32 -0.387   29 -0.269   32 0.3972    6  1.403   15  0.038   32 -0.577

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KANSAS CITY   13  4 515 370 -0.047  7.597    4  0.364    4  0.350    6  0.189    7 0.5527    1  1.571    2  0.743   27 -0.366
DENVER        10  7 391 342  0.063  8.638   10  0.158    9  0.151   15  0.037   10 0.5186   15  1.162   16  0.021   15  0.054
OAKLAND        4 12 270 379 -0.049  8.121   31 -0.365   31 -0.380   30 -0.290   31 0.4000   21  1.064   28 -0.426   22 -0.153
SAN DIEGO      4 12 313 441 -0.058  8.037   32 -0.374   32 -0.387   29 -0.269   32 0.3972    6  1.403   15  0.038   32 -0.577

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
INDIANAPOLIS  14  5 540 401  0.193 10.347    2  0.471    2  0.453    2  0.322    2 0.6067    2  1.564    1  0.866   23 -0.222
TENNESSEE     13  5 469 358  0.171  9.632    3  0.420    3  0.412    4  0.293    3 0.5963    5  1.438    3  0.650   18 -0.065
HOUSTON        5 11 255 380  0.127  9.191   22 -0.185   22 -0.191   25 -0.195   19 0.4752   22  1.062   24 -0.335   17 -0.056
JACKSONVILLE   5 11 276 331  0.100  8.790   24 -0.215   24 -0.226   18 -0.034   20 0.4685   26  1.030   21 -0.211   11  0.143

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BALTIMORE     10  7 408 301 -0.044  7.867   12  0.100   12  0.080    5  0.224   14 0.5015   16  1.156    9  0.200    6  0.248
CINCINNATI     8  8 346 384 -0.107  7.507   16 -0.034   16 -0.064   23 -0.146   21 0.4668    7  1.401   12  0.159   31 -0.451
PITTSBURGH     6 10 300 327 -0.041  7.918   23 -0.203   23 -0.214   20 -0.067   27 0.4358   25  1.040   22 -0.233   13  0.099
CLEVELAND      5 11 254 322 -0.020  8.295   26 -0.272   26 -0.280   24 -0.194   28 0.4272   31  0.831   31 -0.594    8  0.206

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   17  2 421 295  0.104  9.702    1  0.675    1  0.665    1  0.387    1 0.6521   24  1.044    8  0.226    1  0.548
MIAMI         10  6 311 261  0.059  8.131    8  0.204    8  0.186   11  0.112    6 0.5623   28  0.960   19 -0.147    3  0.371
BUFFALO        6 10 243 279  0.070  8.593   20 -0.133   20 -0.150   22 -0.130   16 0.4948   32  0.740   32 -0.624    4  0.365
N.Y. JETS      6 10 283 299  0.023  8.179   21 -0.161   21 -0.189   17  0.000   18 0.4846   23  1.048   20 -0.155   10  0.156

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ST LOUIS      12  5 470 357 -0.095  7.542    7  0.245    7  0.227    9  0.132    9 0.5337    3  1.445    5  0.499   24 -0.235
SEATTLE       10  7 431 360  0.006  8.147   11  0.118   11  0.107   10  0.129   13 0.5021    9  1.322    7  0.324   19 -0.065
SAN FRANCISCO  7  9 384 337  0.004  7.833   18 -0.087   19 -0.119   14  0.039   23 0.4590   12  1.289   10  0.188   21 -0.110
ARIZONA        4 12 225 452 -0.017  8.477   29 -0.339   29 -0.350   32 -0.456   30 0.4057   19  1.104   30 -0.544   28 -0.367

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAROLINA      14  6 426 372  0.004  9.765    6  0.330    6  0.317    8  0.152    4 0.5820   17  1.110   13  0.070    7  0.233
NEW ORLEANS    8  8 340 326 -0.007  7.899   15  0.010   15 -0.014   16  0.037   12 0.5124   13  1.192   14  0.059   16  0.015
TAMPA BAY      7  9 301 264  0.039  7.993   17 -0.068   17 -0.098   12  0.054   15 0.4950   30  0.859   23 -0.317    2  0.425
ATLANTA        5 11 299 422  0.006  8.448   25 -0.249   25 -0.254   26 -0.197   22 0.4603   10  1.307   17 -0.023   29 -0.371

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GREEN BAY     11  7 492 354  0.025  8.717    9  0.167   10  0.145    3  0.322   11 0.5185    8  1.348    4  0.552   14  0.091
MINNESOTA      9  7 416 353 -0.105  7.134   14  0.029   14  0.002   13  0.042   17 0.4877    4  1.441    6  0.403   25 -0.320
CHICAGO        7  9 283 346 -0.075  7.887   19 -0.104   18 -0.119   21 -0.114   25 0.4543   27  0.979   27 -0.351   12  0.123
DETROIT        5 11 270 379 -0.063  8.240   27 -0.280   27 -0.289   27 -0.221   29 0.4256   20  1.069   26 -0.351   20 -0.090

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILADELPHIA  13  5 397 318 -0.007  8.717    5  0.341    5  0.325    7  0.171    5 0.5817   14  1.170   11  0.165    9  0.177
DALLAS        10  7 299 289 -0.112  7.794   13  0.083   13  0.061   19 -0.049    8 0.5385   29  0.921   25 -0.351    5  0.253
WASHINGTON     5 11 287 372 -0.066  7.908   28 -0.292   28 -0.302   28 -0.260   24 0.4577   11  1.292   18 -0.105   30 -0.414
N.Y. GIANTS    4 12 243 387 -0.054  8.268   30 -0.354   30 -0.367   31 -0.438   26 0.4428   18  1.109   29 -0.521   26 -0.355

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC EAST   39 28 0.582    1  0.184
AFC SOUTH  37 32 0.536    2  0.175
NFC SOUTH  34 34 0.500    3  0.009
NFC NORTH  32 34 0.485    4 -0.022
NFC WEST   33 33 0.500    5 -0.022
AFC NORTH  29 36 0.446    6 -0.097
AFC WEST   31 35 0.470    7 -0.105
NFC EAST   32 35 0.478    8 -0.253

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.253 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.032 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:01:03 2024
games through: Sun Feb  1 2004

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