Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   17  2 421 295  0.106  9.701    1  0.674    1  0.667    1  0.389    1 0.6521   24  1.044    8  0.228    1  0.550
INDIANAPOLIS  14  5 540 401  0.194 10.346    2  0.471    2  0.455    2  0.324    2 0.6067    2  1.564    1  0.867   23 -0.220
TENNESSEE     13  5 469 358  0.173  9.632    3  0.419    3  0.413    4  0.295    3 0.5963    5  1.438    3  0.652   18 -0.063
KANSAS CITY   13  4 515 370 -0.045  7.598    4  0.364    4  0.351    6  0.190    7 0.5527    1  1.571    2  0.745   27 -0.364
PHILADELPHIA  13  5 397 318 -0.005  8.717    5  0.341    5  0.327    7  0.173    5 0.5817   14  1.170   11  0.167    9  0.178
CAROLINA      14  6 426 372  0.006  9.763    6  0.330    6  0.318    8  0.153    4 0.5820   17  1.110   13  0.072    7  0.234
ST LOUIS      12  5 470 357 -0.093  7.544    7  0.245    7  0.229    9  0.134    9 0.5337    3  1.445    5  0.501   24 -0.233
MIAMI         10  6 311 261  0.061  8.131    8  0.204    8  0.187   11  0.114    6 0.5623   28  0.960   19 -0.145    3  0.373
GREEN BAY     11  7 492 354  0.027  8.717    9  0.166   10  0.146    3  0.323   11 0.5185    8  1.348    4  0.554   14  0.092
DENVER        10  7 391 342  0.065  8.639   10  0.158    9  0.153   15  0.039   10 0.5186   15  1.162   16  0.023   15  0.055
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SEATTLE       10  7 431 360  0.008  8.148   11  0.118   11  0.108   10  0.131   13 0.5021    9  1.322    7  0.325   19 -0.063
BALTIMORE     10  7 408 301 -0.042  7.867   12  0.100   12  0.081    5  0.225   14 0.5015   16  1.156    9  0.201    6  0.249
DALLAS        10  7 299 289 -0.111  7.793   13  0.083   13  0.063   19 -0.047    8 0.5385   29  0.921   26 -0.349    5  0.255
MINNESOTA      9  7 416 353 -0.103  7.135   14  0.029   14  0.004   13  0.043   17 0.4877    4  1.441    6  0.405   25 -0.318
NEW ORLEANS    8  8 340 326 -0.005  7.899   15  0.010   15 -0.013   16  0.039   12 0.5124   13  1.192   14  0.060   16  0.017
CINCINNATI     8  8 346 384 -0.105  7.507   16 -0.034   16 -0.062   23 -0.144   21 0.4668    7  1.401   12  0.160   31 -0.449
TAMPA BAY      7  9 301 264  0.041  7.993   17 -0.068   17 -0.097   12  0.056   15 0.4950   30  0.859   23 -0.315    2  0.426
SAN FRANCISCO  7  9 384 337  0.005  7.833   18 -0.087   19 -0.118   14  0.041   23 0.4590   12  1.289   10  0.190   21 -0.108
CHICAGO        7  9 283 346 -0.073  7.887   19 -0.104   18 -0.117   21 -0.112   25 0.4543   27  0.979   27 -0.350   12  0.125
BUFFALO        6 10 243 279  0.072  8.593   20 -0.133   20 -0.148   22 -0.128   16 0.4948   32  0.740   32 -0.622    4  0.366
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
N.Y. JETS      6 10 283 299  0.025  8.178   21 -0.161   21 -0.187   17  0.002   18 0.4846   23  1.048   20 -0.154   10  0.158
HOUSTON        5 11 255 380  0.129  9.191   22 -0.185   22 -0.189   25 -0.194   19 0.4752   22  1.062   24 -0.333   17 -0.054
PITTSBURGH     6 10 300 327 -0.039  7.918   23 -0.203   23 -0.212   20 -0.065   27 0.4358   25  1.040   22 -0.231   13  0.101
JACKSONVILLE   5 11 276 331  0.102  8.790   24 -0.215   24 -0.224   18 -0.032   20 0.4685   26  1.030   21 -0.209   11  0.145
ATLANTA        5 11 299 422  0.007  8.447   25 -0.249   25 -0.252   26 -0.195   22 0.4603   10  1.307   17 -0.021   29 -0.370
CLEVELAND      5 11 254 322 -0.019  8.295   26 -0.272   26 -0.279   24 -0.192   28 0.4272   31  0.831   31 -0.592    8  0.208
DETROIT        5 11 270 379 -0.061  8.241   27 -0.280   27 -0.287   27 -0.219   29 0.4256   20  1.069   25 -0.349   20 -0.088
WASHINGTON     5 11 287 372 -0.065  7.907   28 -0.292   28 -0.301   28 -0.258   24 0.4577   11  1.292   18 -0.104   30 -0.412
ARIZONA        4 12 225 452 -0.016  8.478   29 -0.339   29 -0.349   32 -0.454   30 0.4057   19  1.104   30 -0.542   28 -0.365
N.Y. GIANTS    4 12 243 387 -0.052  8.266   30 -0.354   30 -0.365   31 -0.436   26 0.4428   18  1.109   29 -0.519   26 -0.354
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
OAKLAND        4 12 270 379 -0.048  8.123   31 -0.365   31 -0.379   30 -0.288   31 0.4000   21  1.064   28 -0.424   22 -0.151
SAN DIEGO      4 12 313 441 -0.056  8.037   32 -0.373   32 -0.385   29 -0.267   32 0.3972    6  1.403   15  0.040   32 -0.575

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KANSAS CITY   13  4 515 370 -0.045  7.598    4  0.364    4  0.351    6  0.190    7 0.5527    1  1.571    2  0.745   27 -0.364
DENVER        10  7 391 342  0.065  8.639   10  0.158    9  0.153   15  0.039   10 0.5186   15  1.162   16  0.023   15  0.055
OAKLAND        4 12 270 379 -0.048  8.123   31 -0.365   31 -0.379   30 -0.288   31 0.4000   21  1.064   28 -0.424   22 -0.151
SAN DIEGO      4 12 313 441 -0.056  8.037   32 -0.373   32 -0.385   29 -0.267   32 0.3972    6  1.403   15  0.040   32 -0.575

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
INDIANAPOLIS  14  5 540 401  0.194 10.346    2  0.471    2  0.455    2  0.324    2 0.6067    2  1.564    1  0.867   23 -0.220
TENNESSEE     13  5 469 358  0.173  9.632    3  0.419    3  0.413    4  0.295    3 0.5963    5  1.438    3  0.652   18 -0.063
HOUSTON        5 11 255 380  0.129  9.191   22 -0.185   22 -0.189   25 -0.194   19 0.4752   22  1.062   24 -0.333   17 -0.054
JACKSONVILLE   5 11 276 331  0.102  8.790   24 -0.215   24 -0.224   18 -0.032   20 0.4685   26  1.030   21 -0.209   11  0.145

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BALTIMORE     10  7 408 301 -0.042  7.867   12  0.100   12  0.081    5  0.225   14 0.5015   16  1.156    9  0.201    6  0.249
CINCINNATI     8  8 346 384 -0.105  7.507   16 -0.034   16 -0.062   23 -0.144   21 0.4668    7  1.401   12  0.160   31 -0.449
PITTSBURGH     6 10 300 327 -0.039  7.918   23 -0.203   23 -0.212   20 -0.065   27 0.4358   25  1.040   22 -0.231   13  0.101
CLEVELAND      5 11 254 322 -0.019  8.295   26 -0.272   26 -0.279   24 -0.192   28 0.4272   31  0.831   31 -0.592    8  0.208

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   17  2 421 295  0.106  9.701    1  0.674    1  0.667    1  0.389    1 0.6521   24  1.044    8  0.228    1  0.550
MIAMI         10  6 311 261  0.061  8.131    8  0.204    8  0.187   11  0.114    6 0.5623   28  0.960   19 -0.145    3  0.373
BUFFALO        6 10 243 279  0.072  8.593   20 -0.133   20 -0.148   22 -0.128   16 0.4948   32  0.740   32 -0.622    4  0.366
N.Y. JETS      6 10 283 299  0.025  8.178   21 -0.161   21 -0.187   17  0.002   18 0.4846   23  1.048   20 -0.154   10  0.158

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ST LOUIS      12  5 470 357 -0.093  7.544    7  0.245    7  0.229    9  0.134    9 0.5337    3  1.445    5  0.501   24 -0.233
SEATTLE       10  7 431 360  0.008  8.148   11  0.118   11  0.108   10  0.131   13 0.5021    9  1.322    7  0.325   19 -0.063
SAN FRANCISCO  7  9 384 337  0.005  7.833   18 -0.087   19 -0.118   14  0.041   23 0.4590   12  1.289   10  0.190   21 -0.108
ARIZONA        4 12 225 452 -0.016  8.478   29 -0.339   29 -0.349   32 -0.454   30 0.4057   19  1.104   30 -0.542   28 -0.365

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAROLINA      14  6 426 372  0.006  9.763    6  0.330    6  0.318    8  0.153    4 0.5820   17  1.110   13  0.072    7  0.234
NEW ORLEANS    8  8 340 326 -0.005  7.899   15  0.010   15 -0.013   16  0.039   12 0.5124   13  1.192   14  0.060   16  0.017
TAMPA BAY      7  9 301 264  0.041  7.993   17 -0.068   17 -0.097   12  0.056   15 0.4950   30  0.859   23 -0.315    2  0.426
ATLANTA        5 11 299 422  0.007  8.447   25 -0.249   25 -0.252   26 -0.195   22 0.4603   10  1.307   17 -0.021   29 -0.370

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GREEN BAY     11  7 492 354  0.027  8.717    9  0.166   10  0.146    3  0.323   11 0.5185    8  1.348    4  0.554   14  0.092
MINNESOTA      9  7 416 353 -0.103  7.135   14  0.029   14  0.004   13  0.043   17 0.4877    4  1.441    6  0.405   25 -0.318
CHICAGO        7  9 283 346 -0.073  7.887   19 -0.104   18 -0.117   21 -0.112   25 0.4543   27  0.979   27 -0.350   12  0.125
DETROIT        5 11 270 379 -0.061  8.241   27 -0.280   27 -0.287   27 -0.219   29 0.4256   20  1.069   25 -0.349   20 -0.088

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILADELPHIA  13  5 397 318 -0.005  8.717    5  0.341    5  0.327    7  0.173    5 0.5817   14  1.170   11  0.167    9  0.178
DALLAS        10  7 299 289 -0.111  7.793   13  0.083   13  0.063   19 -0.047    8 0.5385   29  0.921   26 -0.349    5  0.255
WASHINGTON     5 11 287 372 -0.065  7.907   28 -0.292   28 -0.301   28 -0.258   24 0.4577   11  1.292   18 -0.104   30 -0.412
N.Y. GIANTS    4 12 243 387 -0.052  8.266   30 -0.354   30 -0.365   31 -0.436   26 0.4428   18  1.109   29 -0.519   26 -0.354

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC EAST   39 28 0.582    1  0.186
AFC SOUTH  37 32 0.536    2  0.177
NFC SOUTH  34 34 0.500    3  0.011
NFC NORTH  32 34 0.485    4 -0.020
NFC WEST   33 33 0.500    5 -0.021
AFC NORTH  29 36 0.446    6 -0.095
AFC WEST   31 35 0.470    7 -0.103
NFC EAST   32 35 0.478    8 -0.251

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.253 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.032 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:44:47 2020
games through: Sun Feb  1 2004

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