Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   17  2 522 311  0.352 11.340    1  0.955    1  0.921    1  0.734    1 0.6571   18  1.201    3  0.724    1  0.744
PITTSBURGH    16  2 419 309  0.238 10.417    2  0.856    2  0.851    2  0.441    2 0.6520   19  1.199    6  0.428    5  0.454
INDIANAPOLIS  13  5 574 395  0.208  9.944    3  0.502    3  0.487    3  0.436    4 0.5844    2  1.614    2  1.013   19 -0.142
PHILADELPHIA  15  4 461 308 -0.083  8.751    4  0.477    4  0.457    7  0.239    3 0.5875   23  1.104   11  0.107    7  0.372
SAN DIEGO     12  5 463 333  0.121  9.122    5  0.422    5  0.406    5  0.387    6 0.5645   11  1.313    5  0.525    9  0.249
N.Y. JETS     11  7 370 298  0.304 10.786    6  0.389    6  0.366    6  0.309    5 0.5672   28  0.930   15 -0.027    2  0.645
BALTIMORE      9  7 317 268  0.266  9.550    7  0.281    7  0.252    9  0.197    7 0.5527   29  0.888   21 -0.185    3  0.580
DENVER        10  7 405 353  0.132  9.409    8  0.241    8  0.208    8  0.198    9 0.5297   21  1.195   10  0.180   11  0.215
ATLANTA       12  6 397 381 -0.187  8.089    9  0.202    9  0.179   18 -0.103   12 0.5265   16  1.211   18 -0.100   17 -0.106
BUFFALO        9  7 395 284  0.175  8.744   10  0.186   11  0.167    4  0.389    8 0.5382   14  1.233    8  0.419    8  0.359
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JACKSONVILLE   9  7 261 280  0.102  8.967   11  0.181   10  0.177   15 -0.046   11 0.5267   31  0.692   30 -0.631    4  0.540
CINCINNATI     8  8 374 372  0.197  9.336   12  0.118   12  0.114   11  0.182   10 0.5282    5  1.472    4  0.545   20 -0.181
GREEN BAY     10  7 441 411 -0.195  7.493   13  0.016   13  0.004   14 -0.045   13 0.5054    3  1.544    7  0.426   29 -0.515
KANSAS CITY    7  9 483 435  0.168  9.154   14 -0.011   14 -0.016   10  0.191   14 0.4923    1  1.767    1  1.015   31 -0.634
ST LOUIS       9  9 363 459 -0.156  8.695   15 -0.068   15 -0.077   29 -0.283   16 0.4880   10  1.323   19 -0.131   27 -0.435
HOUSTON        7  9 309 339  0.043  8.577   16 -0.083   16 -0.089   12  0.017   18 0.4804   25  1.044   22 -0.188   10  0.222
MINNESOTA      9  9 450 439 -0.139  8.388   17 -0.089   17 -0.102   16 -0.072   15 0.4887    4  1.500    9  0.331   28 -0.476
SEATTLE        9  8 391 400 -0.256  7.272   18 -0.105   19 -0.124   24 -0.221   17 0.4839    7  1.365   14 -0.012   26 -0.430
NEW ORLEANS    8  8 348 405 -0.203  7.294   19 -0.119   18 -0.120   21 -0.155   19 0.4721    8  1.363   13  0.052   23 -0.361
CAROLINA       7  9 355 339 -0.146  7.419   20 -0.176   20 -0.207   13 -0.021   20 0.4617   20  1.199   16 -0.034   15 -0.007
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
OAKLAND        5 11 320 442  0.137  9.558   21 -0.189   21 -0.213   27 -0.232   24 0.4541    9  1.340   17 -0.057   24 -0.407
N.Y. GIANTS    6 10 303 347 -0.124  7.757   22 -0.262   24 -0.293   26 -0.225   22 0.4575   17  1.206   24 -0.230   22 -0.221
CLEVELAND      4 12 276 390  0.228 10.017   23 -0.263   23 -0.283   22 -0.190   21 0.4582   15  1.217   20 -0.179   21 -0.200
DALLAS         6 10 293 405 -0.139  7.924   24 -0.263   22 -0.281   30 -0.318   23 0.4571   13  1.289   23 -0.212   25 -0.424
TENNESSEE      5 11 344 439  0.027  8.787   25 -0.278   25 -0.294   28 -0.233   28 0.4404    6  1.420   12  0.054   30 -0.521
WASHINGTON     6 10 240 265 -0.171  7.424   26 -0.304   27 -0.324   20 -0.143   25 0.4468   32  0.690   31 -0.730    6  0.444
DETROIT        6 10 296 350 -0.182  7.368   27 -0.314   26 -0.321   25 -0.225   27 0.4432   22  1.125   26 -0.332   18 -0.118
MIAMI          4 12 275 354  0.138  9.458   28 -0.333   28 -0.338   17 -0.073   26 0.4448   24  1.082   25 -0.233   13  0.087
ARIZONA        6 10 284 322 -0.230  7.180   29 -0.356   29 -0.369   23 -0.220   29 0.4359   27  0.980   28 -0.499   14  0.060
CHICAGO        5 11 231 331 -0.224  7.383   30 -0.422   30 -0.434   31 -0.469   30 0.4140   30  0.822   32 -0.923   16 -0.016
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TAMPA BAY      5 11 301 304 -0.219  7.026   31 -0.426   31 -0.463   19 -0.113   31 0.4117   26  0.989   27 -0.383   12  0.156
SAN FRANCISCO  2 14 259 452 -0.271  7.417   32 -0.766   32 -0.787   32 -0.618   32 0.3595   12  1.297   29 -0.501   32 -0.735

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN DIEGO     12  5 463 333  0.121  9.122    5  0.422    5  0.406    5  0.387    6 0.5645   11  1.313    5  0.525    9  0.249
DENVER        10  7 405 353  0.132  9.409    8  0.241    8  0.208    8  0.198    9 0.5297   21  1.195   10  0.180   11  0.215
KANSAS CITY    7  9 483 435  0.168  9.154   14 -0.011   14 -0.016   10  0.191   14 0.4923    1  1.767    1  1.015   31 -0.634
OAKLAND        5 11 320 442  0.137  9.558   21 -0.189   21 -0.213   27 -0.232   24 0.4541    9  1.340   17 -0.057   24 -0.407

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
INDIANAPOLIS  13  5 574 395  0.208  9.944    3  0.502    3  0.487    3  0.436    4 0.5844    2  1.614    2  1.013   19 -0.142
JACKSONVILLE   9  7 261 280  0.102  8.967   11  0.181   10  0.177   15 -0.046   11 0.5267   31  0.692   30 -0.631    4  0.540
HOUSTON        7  9 309 339  0.043  8.577   16 -0.083   16 -0.089   12  0.017   18 0.4804   25  1.044   22 -0.188   10  0.222
TENNESSEE      5 11 344 439  0.027  8.787   25 -0.278   25 -0.294   28 -0.233   28 0.4404    6  1.420   12  0.054   30 -0.521

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PITTSBURGH    16  2 419 309  0.238 10.417    2  0.856    2  0.851    2  0.441    2 0.6520   19  1.199    6  0.428    5  0.454
BALTIMORE      9  7 317 268  0.266  9.550    7  0.281    7  0.252    9  0.197    7 0.5527   29  0.888   21 -0.185    3  0.580
CINCINNATI     8  8 374 372  0.197  9.336   12  0.118   12  0.114   11  0.182   10 0.5282    5  1.472    4  0.545   20 -0.181
CLEVELAND      4 12 276 390  0.228 10.017   23 -0.263   23 -0.283   22 -0.190   21 0.4582   15  1.217   20 -0.179   21 -0.200

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   17  2 522 311  0.352 11.340    1  0.955    1  0.921    1  0.734    1 0.6571   18  1.201    3  0.724    1  0.744
N.Y. JETS     11  7 370 298  0.304 10.786    6  0.389    6  0.366    6  0.309    5 0.5672   28  0.930   15 -0.027    2  0.645
BUFFALO        9  7 395 284  0.175  8.744   10  0.186   11  0.167    4  0.389    8 0.5382   14  1.233    8  0.419    8  0.359
MIAMI          4 12 275 354  0.138  9.458   28 -0.333   28 -0.338   17 -0.073   26 0.4448   24  1.082   25 -0.233   13  0.087

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ST LOUIS       9  9 363 459 -0.156  8.695   15 -0.068   15 -0.077   29 -0.283   16 0.4880   10  1.323   19 -0.131   27 -0.435
SEATTLE        9  8 391 400 -0.256  7.272   18 -0.105   19 -0.124   24 -0.221   17 0.4839    7  1.365   14 -0.012   26 -0.430
ARIZONA        6 10 284 322 -0.230  7.180   29 -0.356   29 -0.369   23 -0.220   29 0.4359   27  0.980   28 -0.499   14  0.060
SAN FRANCISCO  2 14 259 452 -0.271  7.417   32 -0.766   32 -0.787   32 -0.618   32 0.3595   12  1.297   29 -0.501   32 -0.735

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ATLANTA       12  6 397 381 -0.187  8.089    9  0.202    9  0.179   18 -0.103   12 0.5265   16  1.211   18 -0.100   17 -0.106
NEW ORLEANS    8  8 348 405 -0.203  7.294   19 -0.119   18 -0.120   21 -0.155   19 0.4721    8  1.363   13  0.052   23 -0.361
CAROLINA       7  9 355 339 -0.146  7.419   20 -0.176   20 -0.207   13 -0.021   20 0.4617   20  1.199   16 -0.034   15 -0.007
TAMPA BAY      5 11 301 304 -0.219  7.026   31 -0.426   31 -0.463   19 -0.113   31 0.4117   26  0.989   27 -0.383   12  0.156

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GREEN BAY     10  7 441 411 -0.195  7.493   13  0.016   13  0.004   14 -0.045   13 0.5054    3  1.544    7  0.426   29 -0.515
MINNESOTA      9  9 450 439 -0.139  8.388   17 -0.089   17 -0.102   16 -0.072   15 0.4887    4  1.500    9  0.331   28 -0.476
DETROIT        6 10 296 350 -0.182  7.368   27 -0.314   26 -0.321   25 -0.225   27 0.4432   22  1.125   26 -0.332   18 -0.118
CHICAGO        5 11 231 331 -0.224  7.383   30 -0.422   30 -0.434   31 -0.469   30 0.4140   30  0.822   32 -0.923   16 -0.016

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILADELPHIA  15  4 461 308 -0.083  8.751    4  0.477    4  0.457    7  0.239    3 0.5875   23  1.104   11  0.107    7  0.372
N.Y. GIANTS    6 10 303 347 -0.124  7.757   22 -0.262   24 -0.293   26 -0.225   22 0.4575   17  1.206   24 -0.230   22 -0.221
DALLAS         6 10 293 405 -0.139  7.924   24 -0.263   22 -0.281   30 -0.318   23 0.4571   13  1.289   23 -0.212   25 -0.424
WASHINGTON     6 10 240 265 -0.171  7.424   26 -0.304   27 -0.324   20 -0.143   25 0.4468   32  0.690   31 -0.730    6  0.444

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC EAST   41 28 0.594    1  0.507
AFC NORTH  37 29 0.561    2  0.278
AFC WEST   34 32 0.515    3  0.247
AFC SOUTH  34 32 0.515    4  0.103
NFC EAST   33 34 0.493    5 -0.187
NFC SOUTH  32 34 0.485    6 -0.222
NFC NORTH  30 37 0.448    7 -0.309
NFC WEST   26 41 0.388    8 -0.537

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.189 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.021 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:45:13 2020
games through: Sun Feb 13 2005

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.