Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DENVER        14  4 439 305  0.213 10.092    1  0.657    1  0.626    3  0.472    1 0.6035   19  1.151    7  0.455    3  0.490
INDIANAPOLIS  14  3 457 268  0.102  8.331    2  0.651    2  0.619    4  0.423    2 0.5968   18  1.162    9  0.420    4  0.425
PITTSBURGH    15  5 496 320  0.237 11.013    3  0.634    3  0.592    1  0.642    3 0.5955   20  1.140    1  0.612    1  0.672
SEATTLE       15  4 516 316  0.022  9.057    4  0.562    4  0.530    2  0.479    4 0.5835   14  1.208    5  0.535    5  0.423
JACKSONVILLE  12  5 364 297  0.008  8.451    5  0.403    5  0.382   11  0.074    5 0.5584   27  1.053   15 -0.062    9  0.211
WASHINGTON    11  7 386 323  0.176 10.135    6  0.310    6  0.292    9  0.268    6 0.5570   23  1.095   12  0.182    6  0.355
KANSAS CITY   10  6 403 325  0.155  8.763    7  0.306    7  0.280    6  0.335    9 0.5489    5  1.328    4  0.552   13  0.119
CINCINNATI    11  6 438 381  0.047  8.702    8  0.293    8  0.279   13  0.044   12 0.5446    1  1.563    2  0.600   30 -0.512
CAROLINA      13  6 457 314 -0.018  9.045    9  0.290   10  0.273    5  0.386    7 0.5530   11  1.216    8  0.452    7  0.320
N.Y. GIANTS   11  6 422 337  0.073  8.781   10  0.280    9  0.279   10  0.155    8 0.5528    8  1.299   10  0.331   16 -0.021
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   11  7 420 368  0.136  9.644   11  0.272   11  0.272    8  0.289   10 0.5471    6  1.316    6  0.489   14  0.089
SAN DIEGO      9  7 418 312  0.281  9.384   12  0.271   12  0.254    7  0.307   11 0.5453    3  1.362    3  0.569   15  0.045
CHICAGO       11  6 281 231 -0.103  7.830   13  0.204   13  0.182   12  0.052   13 0.5340   32  0.635   29 -0.531    2  0.636
DALLAS         9  7 325 308  0.115  8.767   14  0.192   14  0.175   14  0.030   14 0.5311   26  1.067   17 -0.090   12  0.150
TAMPA BAY     11  6 310 291 -0.164  7.633   15  0.171   15  0.150   18 -0.089   15 0.5302   29  0.957   25 -0.338   11  0.160
MIAMI          9  7 318 317 -0.086  7.761   16  0.082   16  0.069   16 -0.066   17 0.5070   17  1.162   16 -0.069   17 -0.064
MINNESOTA      9  7 306 344 -0.110  7.799   17  0.072   17  0.060   17 -0.076   16 0.5079   16  1.196   14 -0.036   19 -0.117
ATLANTA        8  8 351 341 -0.131  7.420   18 -0.069   18 -0.099   19 -0.140   18 0.4881    4  1.339   13  0.091   26 -0.371
PHILADELPHIA   6 10 310 388  0.077  8.989   19 -0.136   19 -0.151   21 -0.214   19 0.4711   10  1.225   19 -0.136   23 -0.293
BALTIMORE      6 10 265 299 -0.010  8.319   20 -0.210   20 -0.230   15 -0.023   20 0.4620   30  0.941   23 -0.290    8  0.244
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CLEVELAND      6 10 232 301 -0.053  8.194   21 -0.246   21 -0.253   22 -0.216   21 0.4574   31  0.806   32 -0.629   10  0.197
ST. LOUIS      6 10 363 429 -0.188  7.502   22 -0.330   22 -0.339   25 -0.246   22 0.4479    2  1.520   11  0.244   32 -0.737
BUFFALO        5 11 271 367 -0.076  8.193   23 -0.352   23 -0.357   24 -0.242   23 0.4357   24  1.087   24 -0.338   20 -0.146
OAKLAND        4 12 290 383  0.092  9.152   24 -0.361   24 -0.376   26 -0.250   24 0.4346   15  1.204   21 -0.200   25 -0.300
DETROIT        5 11 254 345 -0.128  7.784   25 -0.388   25 -0.406   27 -0.332   26 0.4317   25  1.071   27 -0.447   21 -0.217
ARIZONA        5 11 311 387 -0.123  7.880   26 -0.395   26 -0.413   20 -0.198   25 0.4341    9  1.242   18 -0.098   24 -0.299
N.Y. JETS      4 12 240 355 -0.061  8.476   27 -0.458   27 -0.477   28 -0.341   27 0.4225   28  0.963   30 -0.583   18 -0.100
GREEN BAY      4 12 298 344 -0.081  8.001   28 -0.470   28 -0.488   23 -0.233   29 0.4181   13  1.210   20 -0.174   22 -0.291
SAN FRANCISCO  4 12 239 428 -0.125  8.313   29 -0.472   29 -0.490   31 -0.474   28 0.4199   21  1.124   28 -0.524   27 -0.424
TENNESSEE      4 12 299 421 -0.132  8.099   30 -0.479   30 -0.515   29 -0.398   30 0.4137    7  1.305   22 -0.214   31 -0.582
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ORLEANS    3 13 235 398 -0.161  7.812   31 -0.581   31 -0.617   32 -0.509   31 0.3923   22  1.096   31 -0.594   28 -0.425
HOUSTON        2 14 260 431 -0.120  8.343   32 -0.704   32 -0.746   30 -0.428   32 0.3790   12  1.211   26 -0.367   29 -0.488

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DENVER        14  4 439 305  0.213 10.092    1  0.657    1  0.626    3  0.472    1 0.6035   19  1.151    7  0.455    3  0.490
KANSAS CITY   10  6 403 325  0.155  8.763    7  0.306    7  0.280    6  0.335    9 0.5489    5  1.328    4  0.552   13  0.119
SAN DIEGO      9  7 418 312  0.281  9.384   12  0.271   12  0.254    7  0.307   11 0.5453    3  1.362    3  0.569   15  0.045
OAKLAND        4 12 290 383  0.092  9.152   24 -0.361   24 -0.376   26 -0.250   24 0.4346   15  1.204   21 -0.200   25 -0.300

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
INDIANAPOLIS  14  3 457 268  0.102  8.331    2  0.651    2  0.619    4  0.423    2 0.5968   18  1.162    9  0.420    4  0.425
JACKSONVILLE  12  5 364 297  0.008  8.451    5  0.403    5  0.382   11  0.074    5 0.5584   27  1.053   15 -0.062    9  0.211
TENNESSEE      4 12 299 421 -0.132  8.099   30 -0.479   30 -0.515   29 -0.398   30 0.4137    7  1.305   22 -0.214   31 -0.582
HOUSTON        2 14 260 431 -0.120  8.343   32 -0.704   32 -0.746   30 -0.428   32 0.3790   12  1.211   26 -0.367   29 -0.488

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PITTSBURGH    15  5 496 320  0.237 11.013    3  0.634    3  0.592    1  0.642    3 0.5955   20  1.140    1  0.612    1  0.672
CINCINNATI    11  6 438 381  0.047  8.702    8  0.293    8  0.279   13  0.044   12 0.5446    1  1.563    2  0.600   30 -0.512
BALTIMORE      6 10 265 299 -0.010  8.319   20 -0.210   20 -0.230   15 -0.023   20 0.4620   30  0.941   23 -0.290    8  0.244
CLEVELAND      6 10 232 301 -0.053  8.194   21 -0.246   21 -0.253   22 -0.216   21 0.4574   31  0.806   32 -0.629   10  0.197

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   11  7 420 368  0.136  9.644   11  0.272   11  0.272    8  0.289   10 0.5471    6  1.316    6  0.489   14  0.089
MIAMI          9  7 318 317 -0.086  7.761   16  0.082   16  0.069   16 -0.066   17 0.5070   17  1.162   16 -0.069   17 -0.064
BUFFALO        5 11 271 367 -0.076  8.193   23 -0.352   23 -0.357   24 -0.242   23 0.4357   24  1.087   24 -0.338   20 -0.146
N.Y. JETS      4 12 240 355 -0.061  8.476   27 -0.458   27 -0.477   28 -0.341   27 0.4225   28  0.963   30 -0.583   18 -0.100

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SEATTLE       15  4 516 316  0.022  9.057    4  0.562    4  0.530    2  0.479    4 0.5835   14  1.208    5  0.535    5  0.423
ST. LOUIS      6 10 363 429 -0.188  7.502   22 -0.330   22 -0.339   25 -0.246   22 0.4479    2  1.520   11  0.244   32 -0.737
ARIZONA        5 11 311 387 -0.123  7.880   26 -0.395   26 -0.413   20 -0.198   25 0.4341    9  1.242   18 -0.098   24 -0.299
SAN FRANCISCO  4 12 239 428 -0.125  8.313   29 -0.472   29 -0.490   31 -0.474   28 0.4199   21  1.124   28 -0.524   27 -0.424

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAROLINA      13  6 457 314 -0.018  9.045    9  0.290   10  0.273    5  0.386    7 0.5530   11  1.216    8  0.452    7  0.320
TAMPA BAY     11  6 310 291 -0.164  7.633   15  0.171   15  0.150   18 -0.089   15 0.5302   29  0.957   25 -0.338   11  0.160
ATLANTA        8  8 351 341 -0.131  7.420   18 -0.069   18 -0.099   19 -0.140   18 0.4881    4  1.339   13  0.091   26 -0.371
NEW ORLEANS    3 13 235 398 -0.161  7.812   31 -0.581   31 -0.617   32 -0.509   31 0.3923   22  1.096   31 -0.594   28 -0.425

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHICAGO       11  6 281 231 -0.103  7.830   13  0.204   13  0.182   12  0.052   13 0.5340   32  0.635   29 -0.531    2  0.636
MINNESOTA      9  7 306 344 -0.110  7.799   17  0.072   17  0.060   17 -0.076   16 0.5079   16  1.196   14 -0.036   19 -0.117
DETROIT        5 11 254 345 -0.128  7.784   25 -0.388   25 -0.406   27 -0.332   26 0.4317   25  1.071   27 -0.447   21 -0.217
GREEN BAY      4 12 298 344 -0.081  8.001   28 -0.470   28 -0.488   23 -0.233   29 0.4181   13  1.210   20 -0.174   22 -0.291

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WASHINGTON    11  7 386 323  0.176 10.135    6  0.310    6  0.292    9  0.268    6 0.5570   23  1.095   12  0.182    6  0.355
N.Y. GIANTS   11  6 422 337  0.073  8.781   10  0.280    9  0.279   10  0.155    8 0.5528    8  1.299   10  0.331   16 -0.021
DALLAS         9  7 325 308  0.115  8.767   14  0.192   14  0.175   14  0.030   14 0.5311   26  1.067   17 -0.090   12  0.150
PHILADELPHIA   6 10 310 388  0.077  8.989   19 -0.136   19 -0.151   21 -0.214   19 0.4711   10  1.225   19 -0.136   23 -0.293

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC WEST   37 29 0.561    1  0.395
NFC EAST   37 30 0.552    2  0.178
AFC NORTH  38 31 0.551    3  0.148
AFC SOUTH  32 34 0.485    4 -0.099
NFC SOUTH  35 33 0.515    5 -0.124
AFC EAST   29 37 0.439    6 -0.201
NFC NORTH  29 36 0.446    7 -0.240
NFC WEST   30 37 0.448    8 -0.272

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.255 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.026 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:02:01 2024
games through: Sun Feb  5 2006

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.