Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
INDIANAPOLIS  16  4 532 425  0.272 11.820    1  0.685    1  0.672    2  0.421    1 0.6228    2  1.478    1  0.830   12  0.012
NEW ENGLAND   14  5 480 312  0.227 10.723    2  0.534    3  0.511    1  0.473    2 0.6023   17  1.174    4  0.466    2  0.481
SAN DIEGO     14  3 513 327  0.010  7.953    3  0.524    2  0.511    4  0.317    3 0.5988    1  1.537    2  0.813   24 -0.179
BALTIMORE     13  4 359 216  0.058  8.437    4  0.458    4  0.434    3  0.362    4 0.5815   31  0.784   19 -0.094    1  0.818
CHICAGO       15  4 510 322 -0.090  8.332    5  0.437    5  0.409    6  0.224    5 0.5799   13  1.255    8  0.321    8  0.127
N.Y. JETS     10  7 332 332  0.107  9.254    6  0.219    6  0.206   12  0.065    6 0.5400   19  1.140   14  0.014   10  0.115
PHILADELPHIA  11  7 445 375 -0.007  8.839    7  0.173    8  0.155    7  0.152    8 0.5285    8  1.319    7  0.336   14 -0.031
TENNESSEE      8  8 324 400  0.262  9.877    8  0.168    7  0.160   14  0.043    7 0.5316    7  1.339    9  0.253   23 -0.167
NEW ORLEANS   11  7 454 385 -0.057  8.483    9  0.143    9  0.129   10  0.106   11 0.5215    3  1.450    3  0.474   27 -0.262
DENVER         9  7 319 305  0.016  8.039   10  0.109   10  0.095   16  0.013    9 0.5261   23  1.092   20 -0.098    9  0.123
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JACKSONVILLE   8  8 371 274  0.184  8.935   11  0.093   11  0.079    5  0.308   10 0.5219   21  1.106   11  0.215    4  0.400
KANSAS CITY    9  8 339 338  0.007  8.680   12  0.050   12  0.053   18 -0.017   12 0.5116   20  1.136   18 -0.073   11  0.040
CINCINNATI     8  8 373 331  0.100  8.424   13  0.044   13  0.027    8  0.149   14 0.5067    6  1.361    5  0.390   19 -0.092
BUFFALO        7  9 300 311  0.219  9.363   14  0.027   14  0.012    9  0.141   13 0.5102   25  1.074   15  0.009    5  0.273
DALLAS         9  8 445 371 -0.030  8.176   15  0.025   15  0.006   13  0.050   16 0.4962    5  1.424    6  0.380   28 -0.280
PITTSBURGH     8  8 353 315  0.045  8.240   16  0.020   16  0.001   11  0.093   17 0.4944   10  1.297   10  0.246   17 -0.060
N.Y. GIANTS    8  9 375 385  0.073  9.077   17  0.007   17 -0.011   17 -0.016   18 0.4939   11  1.291   13  0.130   22 -0.161
SEATTLE       10  8 380 388 -0.206  7.788   18 -0.024   19 -0.044   19 -0.081   15 0.4994   15  1.225   16 -0.023   21 -0.139
GREEN BAY      8  8 301 366 -0.087  7.867   19 -0.027   18 -0.033   22 -0.139   19 0.4937   18  1.172   23 -0.149   20 -0.128
CAROLINA       8  8 270 305 -0.105  7.593   20 -0.043   20 -0.052   20 -0.101   21 0.4789   28  0.948   28 -0.381    6  0.178
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MIAMI          6 10 260 283  0.147  9.056   21 -0.101   21 -0.109   15  0.042   20 0.4819   29  0.860   27 -0.333    3  0.418
HOUSTON        6 10 267 366  0.092  9.007   22 -0.115   22 -0.117   21 -0.133   23 0.4737   22  1.098   25 -0.236   15 -0.031
ST. LOUIS      8  8 367 381 -0.272  6.551   23 -0.155   23 -0.166   23 -0.144   22 0.4769    4  1.428   12  0.193   32 -0.480
ATLANTA        7  9 292 328 -0.130  7.484   24 -0.166   24 -0.174   25 -0.181   25 0.4544   24  1.079   26 -0.307   16 -0.055
SAN FRANCISCO  7  9 298 412 -0.218  7.220   25 -0.198   25 -0.210   29 -0.292   24 0.4659   14  1.245   24 -0.208   30 -0.375
MINNESOTA      6 10 282 327 -0.146  7.435   26 -0.264   26 -0.285   27 -0.245   26 0.4490   26  1.044   29 -0.412   18 -0.078
WASHINGTON     5 11 307 376 -0.008  8.312   27 -0.276   27 -0.288   24 -0.178   27 0.4362   16  1.203   22 -0.149   26 -0.208
TAMPA BAY      4 12 211 353 -0.039  8.383   28 -0.388   28 -0.399   31 -0.385   30 0.4132   30  0.847   31 -0.774   13  0.005
CLEVELAND      4 12 238 356 -0.024  8.480   29 -0.390   29 -0.401   30 -0.357   29 0.4208   27  1.040   30 -0.530   25 -0.185
ARIZONA        5 11 314 389 -0.241  6.950   30 -0.417   30 -0.434   28 -0.248   28 0.4233   12  1.277   21 -0.122   29 -0.375
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT        3 13 305 398 -0.122  7.750   31 -0.533   31 -0.554   26 -0.240   31 0.3954    9  1.309   17 -0.071   31 -0.410
OAKLAND        2 14 168 332 -0.114  8.210   32 -0.621   32 -0.649   32 -0.517   32 0.3845   32  0.573   32 -1.178    7  0.143

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN DIEGO     14  3 513 327  0.010  7.953    3  0.524    2  0.511    4  0.317    3 0.5988    1  1.537    2  0.813   24 -0.179
DENVER         9  7 319 305  0.016  8.039   10  0.109   10  0.095   16  0.013    9 0.5261   23  1.092   20 -0.098    9  0.123
KANSAS CITY    9  8 339 338  0.007  8.680   12  0.050   12  0.053   18 -0.017   12 0.5116   20  1.136   18 -0.073   11  0.040
OAKLAND        2 14 168 332 -0.114  8.210   32 -0.621   32 -0.649   32 -0.517   32 0.3845   32  0.573   32 -1.178    7  0.143

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
INDIANAPOLIS  16  4 532 425  0.272 11.820    1  0.685    1  0.672    2  0.421    1 0.6228    2  1.478    1  0.830   12  0.012
TENNESSEE      8  8 324 400  0.262  9.877    8  0.168    7  0.160   14  0.043    7 0.5316    7  1.339    9  0.253   23 -0.167
JACKSONVILLE   8  8 371 274  0.184  8.935   11  0.093   11  0.079    5  0.308   10 0.5219   21  1.106   11  0.215    4  0.400
HOUSTON        6 10 267 366  0.092  9.007   22 -0.115   22 -0.117   21 -0.133   23 0.4737   22  1.098   25 -0.236   15 -0.031

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BALTIMORE     13  4 359 216  0.058  8.437    4  0.458    4  0.434    3  0.362    4 0.5815   31  0.784   19 -0.094    1  0.818
CINCINNATI     8  8 373 331  0.100  8.424   13  0.044   13  0.027    8  0.149   14 0.5067    6  1.361    5  0.390   19 -0.092
PITTSBURGH     8  8 353 315  0.045  8.240   16  0.020   16  0.001   11  0.093   17 0.4944   10  1.297   10  0.246   17 -0.060
CLEVELAND      4 12 238 356 -0.024  8.480   29 -0.390   29 -0.401   30 -0.357   29 0.4208   27  1.040   30 -0.530   25 -0.185

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   14  5 480 312  0.227 10.723    2  0.534    3  0.511    1  0.473    2 0.6023   17  1.174    4  0.466    2  0.481
N.Y. JETS     10  7 332 332  0.107  9.254    6  0.219    6  0.206   12  0.065    6 0.5400   19  1.140   14  0.014   10  0.115
BUFFALO        7  9 300 311  0.219  9.363   14  0.027   14  0.012    9  0.141   13 0.5102   25  1.074   15  0.009    5  0.273
MIAMI          6 10 260 283  0.147  9.056   21 -0.101   21 -0.109   15  0.042   20 0.4819   29  0.860   27 -0.333    3  0.418

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SEATTLE       10  8 380 388 -0.206  7.788   18 -0.024   19 -0.044   19 -0.081   15 0.4994   15  1.225   16 -0.023   21 -0.139
ST. LOUIS      8  8 367 381 -0.272  6.551   23 -0.155   23 -0.166   23 -0.144   22 0.4769    4  1.428   12  0.193   32 -0.480
SAN FRANCISCO  7  9 298 412 -0.218  7.220   25 -0.198   25 -0.210   29 -0.292   24 0.4659   14  1.245   24 -0.208   30 -0.375
ARIZONA        5 11 314 389 -0.241  6.950   30 -0.417   30 -0.434   28 -0.248   28 0.4233   12  1.277   21 -0.122   29 -0.375

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ORLEANS   11  7 454 385 -0.057  8.483    9  0.143    9  0.129   10  0.106   11 0.5215    3  1.450    3  0.474   27 -0.262
CAROLINA       8  8 270 305 -0.105  7.593   20 -0.043   20 -0.052   20 -0.101   21 0.4789   28  0.948   28 -0.381    6  0.178
ATLANTA        7  9 292 328 -0.130  7.484   24 -0.166   24 -0.174   25 -0.181   25 0.4544   24  1.079   26 -0.307   16 -0.055
TAMPA BAY      4 12 211 353 -0.039  8.383   28 -0.388   28 -0.399   31 -0.385   30 0.4132   30  0.847   31 -0.774   13  0.005

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHICAGO       15  4 510 322 -0.090  8.332    5  0.437    5  0.409    6  0.224    5 0.5799   13  1.255    8  0.321    8  0.127
GREEN BAY      8  8 301 366 -0.087  7.867   19 -0.027   18 -0.033   22 -0.139   19 0.4937   18  1.172   23 -0.149   20 -0.128
MINNESOTA      6 10 282 327 -0.146  7.435   26 -0.264   26 -0.285   27 -0.245   26 0.4490   26  1.044   29 -0.412   18 -0.078
DETROIT        3 13 305 398 -0.122  7.750   31 -0.533   31 -0.554   26 -0.240   31 0.3954    9  1.309   17 -0.071   31 -0.410

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILADELPHIA  11  7 445 375 -0.007  8.839    7  0.173    8  0.155    7  0.152    8 0.5285    8  1.319    7  0.336   14 -0.031
DALLAS         9  8 445 371 -0.030  8.176   15  0.025   15  0.006   13  0.050   16 0.4962    5  1.424    6  0.380   28 -0.280
N.Y. GIANTS    8  9 375 385  0.073  9.077   17  0.007   17 -0.011   17 -0.016   18 0.4939   11  1.291   13  0.130   22 -0.161
WASHINGTON     5 11 307 376 -0.008  8.312   27 -0.276   27 -0.288   24 -0.178   27 0.4362   16  1.203   22 -0.149   26 -0.208

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC EAST   37 31 0.544    1  0.282
AFC SOUTH  38 30 0.559    2  0.237
AFC NORTH  33 32 0.508    3  0.145
NFC EAST   33 35 0.485    4  0.078
AFC WEST   34 32 0.515    5 -0.014
NFC NORTH  32 35 0.478    6 -0.183
NFC SOUTH  30 36 0.455    7 -0.253
NFC WEST   30 36 0.455    8 -0.425

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.104 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.015 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:46:04 2020
games through: Sat Feb 10 2007

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