Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   18  1 655 323  0.244 10.192    1  1.076    1  1.093    1  0.791    1 0.6520    2  1.494    1  1.176    3  0.406
DALLAS        13  4 472 346  0.189  9.401    2  0.660    3  0.629    7  0.319    2 0.6070    7  1.445    2  0.632   17  0.006
N.Y. GIANTS   14  6 458 416  0.297 11.986    3  0.637    2  0.635    6  0.421    4 0.6001   14  1.264    7  0.482    6  0.360
GREEN BAY     14  4 497 334  0.102  9.332    4  0.629    4  0.599    4  0.427    3 0.6015   11  1.343    4  0.595   10  0.259
INDIANAPOLIS  13  4 474 290  0.147  8.803    5  0.612    5  0.581    3  0.464    5 0.5945   12  1.287    5  0.556    4  0.372
SAN DIEGO     13  6 469 335  0.264 10.478    6  0.553    6  0.502    2  0.570    6 0.5821   21  1.149    6  0.483    1  0.657
JACKSONVILLE  12  6 462 364  0.184  9.837    7  0.488    7  0.431    5  0.422    7 0.5671   10  1.367    3  0.625   11  0.219
TENNESSEE     10  7 307 314  0.062  9.104    8  0.285    8  0.234   15  0.007    9 0.5334   29  0.935   22 -0.334    7  0.348
WASHINGTON     9  8 348 345  0.235  9.995    9  0.259    9  0.206    9  0.224    8 0.5394   23  1.108   16  0.086    5  0.362
PHILADELPHIA   8  8 336 300  0.239  9.379   10  0.214   10  0.149    8  0.246   10 0.5317   26  1.052   19  0.040    2  0.452
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PITTSBURGH    10  7 422 300 -0.113  7.410   11  0.125   12  0.038   11  0.169   16 0.4997   22  1.121   18  0.046    9  0.291
CLEVELAND     10  6 402 382 -0.213  6.888   12  0.118   11  0.092   17 -0.026   17 0.4993    5  1.462    9  0.311   24 -0.364
MINNESOTA      8  8 365 311  0.075  8.417   13  0.064   13  0.033   10  0.176   11 0.5152   17  1.196   14  0.148   12  0.204
SEATTLE       11  7 448 347 -0.217  7.382   14  0.064   14  0.027   12  0.131   15 0.5009   13  1.267   13  0.196   16  0.067
CHICAGO        7  9 334 348  0.159  9.191   15  0.024   15 -0.001   13  0.110   12 0.5049   16  1.198   17  0.085   14  0.135
DETROIT        7  9 346 444  0.136  9.332   16  0.005   16 -0.012   21 -0.197   13 0.5042    6  1.461   15  0.139   29 -0.533
HOUSTON        8  8 379 384 -0.005  8.152   17  0.002   17 -0.020   14  0.042   14 0.5014    8  1.436    8  0.343   22 -0.258
DENVER         7  9 320 409  0.055  8.885   18 -0.055   18 -0.065   20 -0.180   19 0.4906    9  1.368   20  0.024   25 -0.383
BUFFALO        7  9 252 354  0.022  8.827   19 -0.070   19 -0.072   23 -0.224   20 0.4843   30  0.894   27 -0.610   13  0.162
TAMPA BAY      9  8 348 294 -0.168  7.455   20 -0.089   20 -0.100   16 -0.011   18 0.4945   28  0.956   21 -0.328    8  0.307
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAROLINA       7  9 267 347 -0.168  7.745   21 -0.231   21 -0.215   25 -0.322   21 0.4712   27  0.980   28 -0.612   19 -0.032
ARIZONA        8  8 404 399 -0.345  6.333   22 -0.265   22 -0.256   24 -0.228   23 0.4565    1  1.553   11  0.245   32 -0.701
NEW ORLEANS    7  9 379 388 -0.191  7.206   23 -0.267   23 -0.268   18 -0.100   22 0.4616    3  1.490   10  0.279   27 -0.480
CINCINNATI     7  9 380 385 -0.207  7.062   24 -0.279   24 -0.281   19 -0.122   24 0.4455    4  1.469   12  0.226   26 -0.471
BALTIMORE      5 11 275 384 -0.130  8.025   25 -0.442   25 -0.433   27 -0.348   28 0.4203   24  1.089   26 -0.509   20 -0.186
KANSAS CITY    4 12 226 335  0.014  8.751   26 -0.448   26 -0.437   28 -0.372   25 0.4286   32  0.838   31 -0.818   15  0.075
OAKLAND        4 12 283 398 -0.007  8.664   27 -0.487   27 -0.488   26 -0.333   26 0.4284   19  1.175   23 -0.387   23 -0.279
N.Y. JETS      4 12 268 355 -0.012  8.593   28 -0.490   28 -0.493   22 -0.201   27 0.4233   25  1.054   24 -0.404   18  0.002
SAN FRANCISCO  5 11 219 364 -0.347  6.931   29 -0.550   29 -0.567   31 -0.629   30 0.4048   31  0.842   32 -1.071   21 -0.187
ATLANTA        4 12 259 414 -0.204  7.777   30 -0.564   30 -0.591   30 -0.602   29 0.4104   20  1.169   29 -0.664   30 -0.539
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ST. LOUIS      3 13 263 438 -0.328  7.224   31 -0.738   31 -0.803   32 -0.634   31 0.3729   18  1.182   30 -0.679   31 -0.589
MIAMI          1 15 267 437 -0.029  8.817   32 -0.839   32 -0.928   29 -0.466   32 0.3659   15  1.242   25 -0.433   28 -0.500

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN DIEGO     13  6 469 335  0.264 10.478    6  0.553    6  0.502    2  0.570    6 0.5821   21  1.149    6  0.483    1  0.657
DENVER         7  9 320 409  0.055  8.885   18 -0.055   18 -0.065   20 -0.180   19 0.4906    9  1.368   20  0.024   25 -0.383
KANSAS CITY    4 12 226 335  0.014  8.751   26 -0.448   26 -0.437   28 -0.372   25 0.4286   32  0.838   31 -0.818   15  0.075
OAKLAND        4 12 283 398 -0.007  8.664   27 -0.487   27 -0.488   26 -0.333   26 0.4284   19  1.175   23 -0.387   23 -0.279

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
INDIANAPOLIS  13  4 474 290  0.147  8.803    5  0.612    5  0.581    3  0.464    5 0.5945   12  1.287    5  0.556    4  0.372
JACKSONVILLE  12  6 462 364  0.184  9.837    7  0.488    7  0.431    5  0.422    7 0.5671   10  1.367    3  0.625   11  0.219
TENNESSEE     10  7 307 314  0.062  9.104    8  0.285    8  0.234   15  0.007    9 0.5334   29  0.935   22 -0.334    7  0.348
HOUSTON        8  8 379 384 -0.005  8.152   17  0.002   17 -0.020   14  0.042   14 0.5014    8  1.436    8  0.343   22 -0.258

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PITTSBURGH    10  7 422 300 -0.113  7.410   11  0.125   12  0.038   11  0.169   16 0.4997   22  1.121   18  0.046    9  0.291
CLEVELAND     10  6 402 382 -0.213  6.888   12  0.118   11  0.092   17 -0.026   17 0.4993    5  1.462    9  0.311   24 -0.364
CINCINNATI     7  9 380 385 -0.207  7.062   24 -0.279   24 -0.281   19 -0.122   24 0.4455    4  1.469   12  0.226   26 -0.471
BALTIMORE      5 11 275 384 -0.130  8.025   25 -0.442   25 -0.433   27 -0.348   28 0.4203   24  1.089   26 -0.509   20 -0.186

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   18  1 655 323  0.244 10.192    1  1.076    1  1.093    1  0.791    1 0.6520    2  1.494    1  1.176    3  0.406
BUFFALO        7  9 252 354  0.022  8.827   19 -0.070   19 -0.072   23 -0.224   20 0.4843   30  0.894   27 -0.610   13  0.162
N.Y. JETS      4 12 268 355 -0.012  8.593   28 -0.490   28 -0.493   22 -0.201   27 0.4233   25  1.054   24 -0.404   18  0.002
MIAMI          1 15 267 437 -0.029  8.817   32 -0.839   32 -0.928   29 -0.466   32 0.3659   15  1.242   25 -0.433   28 -0.500

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SEATTLE       11  7 448 347 -0.217  7.382   14  0.064   14  0.027   12  0.131   15 0.5009   13  1.267   13  0.196   16  0.067
ARIZONA        8  8 404 399 -0.345  6.333   22 -0.265   22 -0.256   24 -0.228   23 0.4565    1  1.553   11  0.245   32 -0.701
SAN FRANCISCO  5 11 219 364 -0.347  6.931   29 -0.550   29 -0.567   31 -0.629   30 0.4048   31  0.842   32 -1.071   21 -0.187
ST. LOUIS      3 13 263 438 -0.328  7.224   31 -0.738   31 -0.803   32 -0.634   31 0.3729   18  1.182   30 -0.679   31 -0.589

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TAMPA BAY      9  8 348 294 -0.168  7.455   20 -0.089   20 -0.100   16 -0.011   18 0.4945   28  0.956   21 -0.328    8  0.307
CAROLINA       7  9 267 347 -0.168  7.745   21 -0.231   21 -0.215   25 -0.322   21 0.4712   27  0.980   28 -0.612   19 -0.032
NEW ORLEANS    7  9 379 388 -0.191  7.206   23 -0.267   23 -0.268   18 -0.100   22 0.4616    3  1.490   10  0.279   27 -0.480
ATLANTA        4 12 259 414 -0.204  7.777   30 -0.564   30 -0.591   30 -0.602   29 0.4104   20  1.169   29 -0.664   30 -0.539

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GREEN BAY     14  4 497 334  0.102  9.332    4  0.629    4  0.599    4  0.427    3 0.6015   11  1.343    4  0.595   10  0.259
MINNESOTA      8  8 365 311  0.075  8.417   13  0.064   13  0.033   10  0.176   11 0.5152   17  1.196   14  0.148   12  0.204
CHICAGO        7  9 334 348  0.159  9.191   15  0.024   15 -0.001   13  0.110   12 0.5049   16  1.198   17  0.085   14  0.135
DETROIT        7  9 346 444  0.136  9.332   16  0.005   16 -0.012   21 -0.197   13 0.5042    6  1.461   15  0.139   29 -0.533

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DALLAS        13  4 472 346  0.189  9.401    2  0.660    3  0.629    7  0.319    2 0.6070    7  1.445    2  0.632   17  0.006
N.Y. GIANTS   14  6 458 416  0.297 11.986    3  0.637    2  0.635    6  0.421    4 0.6001   14  1.264    7  0.482    6  0.360
WASHINGTON     9  8 348 345  0.235  9.995    9  0.259    9  0.206    9  0.224    8 0.5394   23  1.108   16  0.086    5  0.362
PHILADELPHIA   8  8 336 300  0.239  9.379   10  0.214   10  0.149    8  0.246   10 0.5317   26  1.052   19  0.040    2  0.452

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC EAST   44 26 0.629    1  0.439
AFC SOUTH  43 25 0.632    2  0.352
NFC NORTH  36 30 0.545    3  0.205
AFC EAST   30 37 0.448    4 -0.101
AFC NORTH  32 33 0.492    5 -0.103
AFC WEST   28 39 0.418    6 -0.155
NFC SOUTH  27 38 0.415    7 -0.382
NFC WEST   27 39 0.409    8 -0.565

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.206 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.022 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:02:57 2024
games through: Sun Feb 10 2008

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