Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   18  1 655 323  0.243 10.192    1  1.076    1  1.092    1  0.790    1 0.6520    2  1.494    1  1.175    3  0.405
DALLAS        13  4 472 346  0.187  9.401    2  0.660    3  0.628    7  0.318    2 0.6070    7  1.445    2  0.631   17  0.005
N.Y. GIANTS   14  6 458 416  0.296 11.988    3  0.637    2  0.634    6  0.420    4 0.6001   14  1.264    7  0.481    6  0.359
GREEN BAY     14  4 497 334  0.101  9.331    4  0.629    4  0.598    4  0.426    3 0.6015   11  1.343    4  0.594   10  0.258
INDIANAPOLIS  13  4 474 290  0.145  8.802    5  0.612    5  0.579    3  0.463    5 0.5945   12  1.287    5  0.555    4  0.371
SAN DIEGO     13  6 469 335  0.263 10.478    6  0.553    6  0.501    2  0.569    6 0.5821   21  1.149    6  0.482    1  0.656
JACKSONVILLE  12  6 462 364  0.183  9.837    7  0.488    7  0.430    5  0.421    7 0.5671   10  1.367    3  0.624   11  0.218
TENNESSEE     10  7 307 314  0.061  9.105    8  0.285    8  0.233   15  0.006    9 0.5334   29  0.935   22 -0.335    7  0.347
WASHINGTON     9  8 348 345  0.234  9.996    9  0.259    9  0.205    9  0.223    8 0.5394   23  1.108   16  0.085    5  0.361
PHILADELPHIA   8  8 336 300  0.238  9.379   10  0.214   10  0.147    8  0.245   10 0.5317   26  1.052   19  0.039    2  0.451
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PITTSBURGH    10  7 422 300 -0.114  7.410   11  0.125   12  0.037   11  0.168   16 0.4997   22  1.121   18  0.045    9  0.290
CLEVELAND     10  6 402 382 -0.214  6.888   12  0.118   11  0.091   17 -0.028   17 0.4993    5  1.462    9  0.310   24 -0.365
MINNESOTA      8  8 365 311  0.074  8.417   13  0.064   13  0.032   10  0.175   11 0.5152   17  1.196   14  0.147   12  0.203
SEATTLE       11  7 448 347 -0.218  7.381   14  0.063   14  0.026   12  0.130   15 0.5009   13  1.267   13  0.195   16  0.065
CHICAGO        7  9 334 348  0.158  9.191   15  0.023   15 -0.002   13  0.109   12 0.5049   16  1.198   17  0.084   14  0.134
DETROIT        7  9 346 444  0.135  9.331   16  0.005   16 -0.013   21 -0.198   13 0.5042    6  1.461   15  0.138   29 -0.534
HOUSTON        8  8 379 384 -0.006  8.152   17  0.002   17 -0.022   14  0.041   14 0.5014    8  1.436    8  0.342   22 -0.259
DENVER         7  9 320 409  0.054  8.886   18 -0.055   18 -0.066   20 -0.181   19 0.4906    9  1.368   20  0.022   25 -0.384
BUFFALO        7  9 252 354  0.021  8.828   19 -0.070   19 -0.073   23 -0.225   20 0.4843   30  0.894   27 -0.611   13  0.161
TAMPA BAY      9  8 348 294 -0.170  7.455   20 -0.089   20 -0.101   16 -0.012   18 0.4945   28  0.956   21 -0.329    8  0.305
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAROLINA       7  9 267 347 -0.169  7.746   21 -0.231   21 -0.216   25 -0.323   21 0.4712   27  0.980   28 -0.613   19 -0.033
ARIZONA        8  8 404 399 -0.347  6.333   22 -0.265   22 -0.257   24 -0.229   23 0.4565    1  1.553   11  0.244   32 -0.702
NEW ORLEANS    7  9 379 388 -0.192  7.206   23 -0.268   23 -0.269   18 -0.101   22 0.4616    3  1.490   10  0.278   27 -0.481
CINCINNATI     7  9 380 385 -0.208  7.062   24 -0.279   24 -0.282   19 -0.124   24 0.4455    4  1.469   12  0.225   26 -0.472
BALTIMORE      5 11 275 384 -0.132  8.026   25 -0.442   25 -0.434   27 -0.349   28 0.4203   24  1.089   26 -0.510   20 -0.187
KANSAS CITY    4 12 226 335  0.013  8.751   26 -0.448   26 -0.438   28 -0.373   25 0.4286   32  0.838   31 -0.820   15  0.074
OAKLAND        4 12 283 398 -0.008  8.664   27 -0.487   27 -0.489   26 -0.334   26 0.4284   19  1.175   23 -0.388   23 -0.280
N.Y. JETS      4 12 268 355 -0.012  8.594   28 -0.490   28 -0.494   22 -0.202   27 0.4233   25  1.054   24 -0.405   18  0.001
SAN FRANCISCO  5 11 219 364 -0.348  6.931   29 -0.551   29 -0.568   31 -0.630   30 0.4048   31  0.842   32 -1.073   21 -0.188
ATLANTA        4 12 259 414 -0.205  7.777   30 -0.565   30 -0.592   30 -0.603   29 0.4104   20  1.169   29 -0.665   30 -0.541
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ST. LOUIS      3 13 263 438 -0.329  7.223   31 -0.738   31 -0.805   32 -0.635   31 0.3729   18  1.182   30 -0.681   31 -0.590
MIAMI          1 15 267 437 -0.030  8.817   32 -0.839   32 -0.929   29 -0.468   32 0.3659   15  1.243   25 -0.434   28 -0.501

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN DIEGO     13  6 469 335  0.263 10.478    6  0.553    6  0.501    2  0.569    6 0.5821   21  1.149    6  0.482    1  0.656
DENVER         7  9 320 409  0.054  8.886   18 -0.055   18 -0.066   20 -0.181   19 0.4906    9  1.368   20  0.022   25 -0.384
KANSAS CITY    4 12 226 335  0.013  8.751   26 -0.448   26 -0.438   28 -0.373   25 0.4286   32  0.838   31 -0.820   15  0.074
OAKLAND        4 12 283 398 -0.008  8.664   27 -0.487   27 -0.489   26 -0.334   26 0.4284   19  1.175   23 -0.388   23 -0.280

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
INDIANAPOLIS  13  4 474 290  0.145  8.802    5  0.612    5  0.579    3  0.463    5 0.5945   12  1.287    5  0.555    4  0.371
JACKSONVILLE  12  6 462 364  0.183  9.837    7  0.488    7  0.430    5  0.421    7 0.5671   10  1.367    3  0.624   11  0.218
TENNESSEE     10  7 307 314  0.061  9.105    8  0.285    8  0.233   15  0.006    9 0.5334   29  0.935   22 -0.335    7  0.347
HOUSTON        8  8 379 384 -0.006  8.152   17  0.002   17 -0.022   14  0.041   14 0.5014    8  1.436    8  0.342   22 -0.259

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PITTSBURGH    10  7 422 300 -0.114  7.410   11  0.125   12  0.037   11  0.168   16 0.4997   22  1.121   18  0.045    9  0.290
CLEVELAND     10  6 402 382 -0.214  6.888   12  0.118   11  0.091   17 -0.028   17 0.4993    5  1.462    9  0.310   24 -0.365
CINCINNATI     7  9 380 385 -0.208  7.062   24 -0.279   24 -0.282   19 -0.124   24 0.4455    4  1.469   12  0.225   26 -0.472
BALTIMORE      5 11 275 384 -0.132  8.026   25 -0.442   25 -0.434   27 -0.349   28 0.4203   24  1.089   26 -0.510   20 -0.187

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   18  1 655 323  0.243 10.192    1  1.076    1  1.092    1  0.790    1 0.6520    2  1.494    1  1.175    3  0.405
BUFFALO        7  9 252 354  0.021  8.828   19 -0.070   19 -0.073   23 -0.225   20 0.4843   30  0.894   27 -0.611   13  0.161
N.Y. JETS      4 12 268 355 -0.012  8.594   28 -0.490   28 -0.494   22 -0.202   27 0.4233   25  1.054   24 -0.405   18  0.001
MIAMI          1 15 267 437 -0.030  8.817   32 -0.839   32 -0.929   29 -0.468   32 0.3659   15  1.243   25 -0.434   28 -0.501

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SEATTLE       11  7 448 347 -0.218  7.381   14  0.063   14  0.026   12  0.130   15 0.5009   13  1.267   13  0.195   16  0.065
ARIZONA        8  8 404 399 -0.347  6.333   22 -0.265   22 -0.257   24 -0.229   23 0.4565    1  1.553   11  0.244   32 -0.702
SAN FRANCISCO  5 11 219 364 -0.348  6.931   29 -0.551   29 -0.568   31 -0.630   30 0.4048   31  0.842   32 -1.073   21 -0.188
ST. LOUIS      3 13 263 438 -0.329  7.223   31 -0.738   31 -0.805   32 -0.635   31 0.3729   18  1.182   30 -0.681   31 -0.590

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TAMPA BAY      9  8 348 294 -0.170  7.455   20 -0.089   20 -0.101   16 -0.012   18 0.4945   28  0.956   21 -0.329    8  0.305
CAROLINA       7  9 267 347 -0.169  7.746   21 -0.231   21 -0.216   25 -0.323   21 0.4712   27  0.980   28 -0.613   19 -0.033
NEW ORLEANS    7  9 379 388 -0.192  7.206   23 -0.268   23 -0.269   18 -0.101   22 0.4616    3  1.490   10  0.278   27 -0.481
ATLANTA        4 12 259 414 -0.205  7.777   30 -0.565   30 -0.592   30 -0.603   29 0.4104   20  1.169   29 -0.665   30 -0.541

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GREEN BAY     14  4 497 334  0.101  9.331    4  0.629    4  0.598    4  0.426    3 0.6015   11  1.343    4  0.594   10  0.258
MINNESOTA      8  8 365 311  0.074  8.417   13  0.064   13  0.032   10  0.175   11 0.5152   17  1.196   14  0.147   12  0.203
CHICAGO        7  9 334 348  0.158  9.191   15  0.023   15 -0.002   13  0.109   12 0.5049   16  1.198   17  0.084   14  0.134
DETROIT        7  9 346 444  0.135  9.331   16  0.005   16 -0.013   21 -0.198   13 0.5042    6  1.461   15  0.138   29 -0.534

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DALLAS        13  4 472 346  0.187  9.401    2  0.660    3  0.628    7  0.318    2 0.6070    7  1.445    2  0.631   17  0.005
N.Y. GIANTS   14  6 458 416  0.296 11.988    3  0.637    2  0.634    6  0.420    4 0.6001   14  1.264    7  0.481    6  0.359
WASHINGTON     9  8 348 345  0.234  9.996    9  0.259    9  0.205    9  0.223    8 0.5394   23  1.108   16  0.085    5  0.361
PHILADELPHIA   8  8 336 300  0.238  9.379   10  0.214   10  0.147    8  0.245   10 0.5317   26  1.052   19  0.039    2  0.451

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC EAST   44 26 0.629    1  0.438
AFC SOUTH  43 25 0.632    2  0.351
NFC NORTH  36 30 0.545    3  0.204
AFC EAST   30 37 0.448    4 -0.102
AFC NORTH  32 33 0.492    5 -0.104
AFC WEST   28 39 0.418    6 -0.157
NFC SOUTH  27 38 0.415    7 -0.383
NFC WEST   27 39 0.409    8 -0.566

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.206 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.022 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:46:32 2020
games through: Sun Feb 10 2008

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