Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PITTSBURGH    15  4  0 432 284  0.238 10.460    1  0.674    1  0.675    2  0.521    1 0.6197   28  0.985   12  0.214    1  0.828
TENNESSEE     13  4  0 385 247  0.117  8.594    2  0.537    2  0.519    5  0.305    3 0.5863   30  0.929   19 -0.065    3  0.675
BALTIMORE     13  6  0 439 286  0.254 10.378    3  0.505    3  0.472    1  0.540    2 0.5944   26  1.096    8  0.365    2  0.715
INDIANAPOLIS  12  5  0 394 321  0.188  9.198    4  0.490    4  0.458    4  0.365    5 0.5756   20  1.182    9  0.298    4  0.432
N.Y. GIANTS   12  5  0 438 317  0.143  8.768    5  0.466    5  0.432    6  0.294    4 0.5802   10  1.325    6  0.416    9  0.173
CAROLINA      12  5  0 427 362  0.049  8.466    6  0.411    6  0.385   11  0.132    6 0.5551   16  1.239   14  0.138   12  0.126
PHILADELPHIA  11  7  1 490 346  0.174 10.029    7  0.293    8  0.257    3  0.447    7 0.5550   14  1.257    4  0.477    5  0.417
ATLANTA       11  6  0 415 355  0.021  8.349    8  0.275    7  0.258   12  0.120   11 0.5304   18  1.202   17  0.078   10  0.162
MINNESOTA     10  7  0 393 359  0.144  9.216    9  0.251    9  0.238   10  0.160   13 0.5256   17  1.211   15  0.130    7  0.191
NEW ENGLAND   11  5  0 410 309 -0.132  6.774   10  0.237   10  0.218    7  0.240    8 0.5470   13  1.272   10  0.289    8  0.190
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ARIZONA       12  8  0 545 515 -0.004  9.726   11  0.193   11  0.181   13  0.085   10 0.5345    1  1.631    2  0.657   29 -0.487
MIAMI         11  6  0 354 344 -0.140  7.502   12  0.177   12  0.173   19 -0.062    9 0.5347   25  1.102   23 -0.230   14  0.105
CHICAGO        9  7  0 375 350  0.066  8.210   13  0.150   13  0.146   15  0.034   15 0.5058   12  1.276   16  0.089   15 -0.021
DALLAS         9  7  0 362 365  0.082  8.362   14  0.145   14  0.140   16  0.020   12 0.5293    8  1.382   11  0.220   21 -0.181
TAMPA BAY      9  7  0 361 323 -0.024  7.636   15  0.080   15  0.067   18 -0.004   19 0.5014   23  1.143   20 -0.120   13  0.113
HOUSTON        8  8  0 366 394  0.074  8.437   16  0.057   16  0.045   17  0.013   14 0.5087    4  1.490    7  0.369   25 -0.344
WASHINGTON     8  8  0 265 296  0.011  8.192   17  0.022   17  0.003   21 -0.114   17 0.5037   32  0.851   28 -0.568    6  0.341
SAN DIEGO      9  9  0 486 399  0.010  8.673   18 -0.001   18 -0.022    8  0.199   16 0.5038    6  1.453    3  0.502   18 -0.104
N.Y. JETS      9  7  0 405 356 -0.214  6.579   19 -0.024   19 -0.034   20 -0.099   18 0.5015    7  1.431   13  0.172   27 -0.371
NEW ORLEANS    8  8  0 463 393 -0.030  7.549   20 -0.032   20 -0.040    9  0.164   20 0.4841    2  1.600    1  0.688   26 -0.361
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DENVER         8  8  0 370 448 -0.200  7.064   21 -0.121   21 -0.118   28 -0.354   21 0.4771    3  1.531   18  0.065   32 -0.772
GREEN BAY      6 10  0 419 380  0.057  8.132   22 -0.200   22 -0.200   14  0.085   27 0.4505    5  1.474    5  0.419   24 -0.249
SAN FRANCISCO  7  9  0 339 381 -0.199  7.021   23 -0.225   23 -0.232   23 -0.182   22 0.4590   15  1.252   21 -0.159   22 -0.205
BUFFALO        7  9  0 336 342 -0.268  6.465   24 -0.273   24 -0.277   26 -0.287   24 0.4565   21  1.171   25 -0.368   23 -0.206
JACKSONVILLE   5 11  0 302 367  0.049  8.515   25 -0.289   26 -0.288   22 -0.182   26 0.4512   19  1.198   22 -0.229   19 -0.134
CINCINNATI     4 11  1 204 364  0.086  9.158   26 -0.293   25 -0.284   25 -0.284   23 0.4580   31  0.878   31 -0.710   11  0.142
CLEVELAND      4 12  0 232 350  0.087  9.042   27 -0.356   27 -0.368   29 -0.371   25 0.4520   29  0.970   30 -0.695   16 -0.047
OAKLAND        5 11  0 263 388 -0.124  7.699   28 -0.369   28 -0.384   27 -0.333   28 0.4326   27  1.012   29 -0.608   17 -0.058
SEATTLE        4 12  0 294 392 -0.145  7.511   29 -0.490   29 -0.522   24 -0.280   29 0.4104   22  1.149   27 -0.390   20 -0.171
ST. LOUIS      2 14  0 232 465 -0.149  7.821   30 -0.707   30 -0.723   32 -0.611   30 0.3780   24  1.126   32 -0.749   28 -0.473
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KANSAS CITY    2 14  0 291 440 -0.158  7.553   31 -0.737   31 -0.760   30 -0.434   31 0.3737   11  1.289   24 -0.361   30 -0.507
DETROIT        0 16  0 268 517  0.061  8.922   32 -0.848   32 -0.892   31 -0.537   32 0.3405    9  1.358   26 -0.370   31 -0.704

AFC WEST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN DIEGO      9  9  0 486 399  0.010  8.673   18 -0.001   18 -0.022    8  0.199   16 0.5038    6  1.453    3  0.502   18 -0.104
DENVER         8  8  0 370 448 -0.200  7.064   21 -0.121   21 -0.118   28 -0.354   21 0.4771    3  1.531   18  0.065   32 -0.772
OAKLAND        5 11  0 263 388 -0.124  7.699   28 -0.369   28 -0.384   27 -0.333   28 0.4326   27  1.012   29 -0.608   17 -0.058
KANSAS CITY    2 14  0 291 440 -0.158  7.553   31 -0.737   31 -0.760   30 -0.434   31 0.3737   11  1.289   24 -0.361   30 -0.507

AFC SOUTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TENNESSEE     13  4  0 385 247  0.117  8.594    2  0.537    2  0.519    5  0.305    3 0.5863   30  0.929   19 -0.065    3  0.675
INDIANAPOLIS  12  5  0 394 321  0.188  9.198    4  0.490    4  0.458    4  0.365    5 0.5756   20  1.182    9  0.298    4  0.432
HOUSTON        8  8  0 366 394  0.074  8.437   16  0.057   16  0.045   17  0.013   14 0.5087    4  1.490    7  0.369   25 -0.344
JACKSONVILLE   5 11  0 302 367  0.049  8.515   25 -0.289   26 -0.288   22 -0.182   26 0.4512   19  1.198   22 -0.229   19 -0.134

AFC NORTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PITTSBURGH    15  4  0 432 284  0.238 10.460    1  0.674    1  0.675    2  0.521    1 0.6197   28  0.985   12  0.214    1  0.828
BALTIMORE     13  6  0 439 286  0.254 10.378    3  0.505    3  0.472    1  0.540    2 0.5944   26  1.096    8  0.365    2  0.715
CINCINNATI     4 11  1 204 364  0.086  9.158   26 -0.293   25 -0.284   25 -0.284   23 0.4580   31  0.878   31 -0.710   11  0.142
CLEVELAND      4 12  0 232 350  0.087  9.042   27 -0.356   27 -0.368   29 -0.371   25 0.4520   29  0.970   30 -0.695   16 -0.047

AFC EAST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   11  5  0 410 309 -0.132  6.774   10  0.237   10  0.218    7  0.240    8 0.5470   13  1.272   10  0.289    8  0.190
MIAMI         11  6  0 354 344 -0.140  7.502   12  0.177   12  0.173   19 -0.062    9 0.5347   25  1.102   23 -0.230   14  0.105
N.Y. JETS      9  7  0 405 356 -0.214  6.579   19 -0.024   19 -0.034   20 -0.099   18 0.5015    7  1.431   13  0.172   27 -0.371
BUFFALO        7  9  0 336 342 -0.268  6.465   24 -0.273   24 -0.277   26 -0.287   24 0.4565   21  1.171   25 -0.368   23 -0.206

NFC WEST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ARIZONA       12  8  0 545 515 -0.004  9.726   11  0.193   11  0.181   13  0.085   10 0.5345    1  1.631    2  0.657   29 -0.487
SAN FRANCISCO  7  9  0 339 381 -0.199  7.021   23 -0.225   23 -0.232   23 -0.182   22 0.4590   15  1.252   21 -0.159   22 -0.205
SEATTLE        4 12  0 294 392 -0.145  7.511   29 -0.490   29 -0.522   24 -0.280   29 0.4104   22  1.149   27 -0.390   20 -0.171
ST. LOUIS      2 14  0 232 465 -0.149  7.821   30 -0.707   30 -0.723   32 -0.611   30 0.3780   24  1.126   32 -0.749   28 -0.473

NFC SOUTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAROLINA      12  5  0 427 362  0.049  8.466    6  0.411    6  0.385   11  0.132    6 0.5551   16  1.239   14  0.138   12  0.126
ATLANTA       11  6  0 415 355  0.021  8.349    8  0.275    7  0.258   12  0.120   11 0.5304   18  1.202   17  0.078   10  0.162
TAMPA BAY      9  7  0 361 323 -0.024  7.636   15  0.080   15  0.067   18 -0.004   19 0.5014   23  1.143   20 -0.120   13  0.113
NEW ORLEANS    8  8  0 463 393 -0.030  7.549   20 -0.032   20 -0.040    9  0.164   20 0.4841    2  1.600    1  0.688   26 -0.361

NFC NORTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MINNESOTA     10  7  0 393 359  0.144  9.216    9  0.251    9  0.238   10  0.160   13 0.5256   17  1.211   15  0.130    7  0.191
CHICAGO        9  7  0 375 350  0.066  8.210   13  0.150   13  0.146   15  0.034   15 0.5058   12  1.276   16  0.089   15 -0.021
GREEN BAY      6 10  0 419 380  0.057  8.132   22 -0.200   22 -0.200   14  0.085   27 0.4505    5  1.474    5  0.419   24 -0.249
DETROIT        0 16  0 268 517  0.061  8.922   32 -0.848   32 -0.892   31 -0.537   32 0.3405    9  1.358   26 -0.370   31 -0.704

NFC EAST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
N.Y. GIANTS   12  5  0 438 317  0.143  8.768    5  0.466    5  0.432    6  0.294    4 0.5802   10  1.325    6  0.416    9  0.173
PHILADELPHIA  11  7  1 490 346  0.174 10.029    7  0.293    8  0.257    3  0.447    7 0.5550   14  1.257    4  0.477    5  0.417
DALLAS         9  7  0 362 365  0.082  8.362   14  0.145   14  0.140   16  0.020   12 0.5293    8  1.382   11  0.220   21 -0.181
WASHINGTON     8  8  0 265 296  0.011  8.192   17  0.022   17  0.003   21 -0.114   17 0.5037   32  0.851   28 -0.568    6  0.341

DIVISION    W  L  T   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC EAST   40 27  1 0.596    1  0.295
AFC SOUTH  38 28  0 0.576    2  0.225
NFC SOUTH  40 26  0 0.606    3  0.225
AFC NORTH  36 33  1 0.521    4  0.128
NFC NORTH  25 40  0 0.385    5 -0.045
AFC EAST   38 27  0 0.585    6 -0.062
AFC WEST   24 42  0 0.364    7 -0.433
NFC WEST   25 43  0 0.368    8 -0.471

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.176 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.023 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:47:01 2020
games through: Sun Feb  8 2009

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