Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GREEN BAY     15  2 580 396  0.007  7.870    1  0.626    1  0.612    6  0.277    1 0.6239    2  1.654    2  0.884   27 -0.330
NEW ENGLAND   15  4 598 393  0.042  9.195    2  0.520    2  0.498    2  0.407    2 0.5911    4  1.549    3  0.850   17 -0.037
SAN FRANCISCO 14  4 433 281  0.062  8.758    3  0.498    3  0.474    4  0.332    3 0.5850   27  1.031   13  0.076    1  0.588
NEW ORLEANS   14  4 624 403  0.028  8.420    4  0.454    4  0.425    1  0.458    4 0.5814    1  1.657    1  1.069   21 -0.152
NY GIANTS     13  7 496 456  0.279 11.750    5  0.436    5  0.423    3  0.371    5 0.5710    9  1.367    5  0.549    9  0.193
BALTIMORE     13  5 418 302  0.053  8.914    6  0.398    6  0.381    7  0.242    6 0.5655   21  1.177    9  0.165    5  0.319
PITTSBURGH    12  5 348 256 -0.019  7.938    7  0.312    7  0.305    8  0.201    7 0.5598   28  0.943   21 -0.155    2  0.557
DETROIT       10  7 502 432  0.080  8.709    8  0.186    8  0.169   10  0.148    8 0.5449    3  1.554    4  0.599   25 -0.302
ATLANTA       10  7 404 374  0.028  8.592    9  0.170    9  0.152   16  0.030    9 0.5230   16  1.208   18 -0.006   14  0.067
HOUSTON       11  7 425 308 -0.050  8.145   10  0.142   10  0.104    9  0.156   10 0.5177   22  1.144   14  0.038    6  0.273
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILADELPHIA   8  8 396 328  0.107  8.425   11  0.080   11  0.043    5  0.277   17 0.5010   11  1.338    6  0.415   10  0.140
DALLAS         8  8 369 347  0.079  8.388   12  0.047   12  0.040   15  0.032   19 0.4975   15  1.228   15  0.022   15  0.042
CINCINNATI     9  8 354 354 -0.033  8.341   13  0.035   13  0.025   20 -0.081   16 0.5023   14  1.307   16  0.014   22 -0.176
TENNESSEE      9  7 325 317 -0.122  7.278   14  0.027   14  0.023   18 -0.048   18 0.4981   23  1.144   22 -0.166   13  0.070
NY JETS        8  8 377 363  0.061  8.270   15  0.019   15  0.017   14  0.045   15 0.5028   13  1.322   10  0.161   20 -0.071
ARIZONA        8  8 312 348 -0.036  8.026   16 -0.002   16 -0.005   21 -0.114   20 0.4899   19  1.190   23 -0.174   19 -0.053
CHICAGO        8  8 353 341 -0.005  7.948   17 -0.013   18 -0.019   17 -0.047   12 0.5082   25  1.099   24 -0.220   11  0.126
DENVER         9  9 348 458 -0.031  9.174   18 -0.019   17 -0.013   29 -0.275   11 0.5141   18  1.192   25 -0.332   24 -0.218
SAN DIEGO      8  8 406 377 -0.069  7.489   19 -0.031   20 -0.065   12  0.060   13 0.5067    8  1.433    7  0.331   23 -0.211
OAKLAND        8  8 359 433 -0.088  7.783   20 -0.044   19 -0.044   25 -0.233   14 0.5036    6  1.476   12  0.101   31 -0.568
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SEATTLE        7  9 321 315  0.020  8.144   21 -0.090   21 -0.092   13  0.060   22 0.4807   17  1.193   17  0.004   12  0.117
KANSAS CITY    7  9 212 338 -0.120  7.779   22 -0.141   22 -0.147   27 -0.252   21 0.4850   32  0.671   31 -0.891    3  0.387
MIAMI          6 10 329 313  0.054  8.263   23 -0.150   24 -0.192   11  0.108   24 0.4625   26  1.043   20 -0.134    4  0.350
BUFFALO        6 10 372 434  0.046  8.482   24 -0.160   23 -0.168   22 -0.172   23 0.4662    7  1.475   11  0.161   30 -0.504
CAROLINA       6 10 406 429 -0.078  7.691   25 -0.233   26 -0.250   19 -0.062   25 0.4510    5  1.513    8  0.327   29 -0.451
WASHINGTON     5 11 288 367  0.063  8.679   26 -0.242   25 -0.249   23 -0.175   26 0.4360   24  1.100   26 -0.348   16 -0.002
JACKSONVILLE   5 11 243 329 -0.094  7.874   27 -0.328   27 -0.343   26 -0.239   27 0.4255   30  0.871   29 -0.675    8  0.197
TAMPA BAY      4 12 287 494 -0.032  8.611   28 -0.377   28 -0.381   32 -0.493   28 0.4226   12  1.323   27 -0.376   32 -0.609
CLEVELAND      4 12 218 307 -0.075  8.016   29 -0.436   29 -0.448   24 -0.226   29 0.4159   31  0.818   30 -0.718    7  0.266
MINNESOTA      3 13 340 449 -0.067  8.060   30 -0.523   30 -0.543   28 -0.255   30 0.4123   10  1.353   19 -0.098   28 -0.413
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ST. LOUIS      2 14 193 407  0.063  9.224   31 -0.526   31 -0.544   31 -0.482   31 0.3976   29  0.872   32 -0.917   18 -0.047
INDIANAPOLIS   2 14 243 430 -0.147  8.012   32 -0.632   32 -0.667   30 -0.390   32 0.3735   20  1.184   28 -0.458   26 -0.323

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DENVER         9  9 348 458 -0.031  9.174   18 -0.019   17 -0.013   29 -0.275   11 0.5141   18  1.192   25 -0.332   24 -0.218
SAN DIEGO      8  8 406 377 -0.069  7.489   19 -0.031   20 -0.065   12  0.060   13 0.5067    8  1.433    7  0.331   23 -0.211
OAKLAND        8  8 359 433 -0.088  7.783   20 -0.044   19 -0.044   25 -0.233   14 0.5036    6  1.476   12  0.101   31 -0.568
KANSAS CITY    7  9 212 338 -0.120  7.779   22 -0.141   22 -0.147   27 -0.252   21 0.4850   32  0.671   31 -0.891    3  0.387

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HOUSTON       11  7 425 308 -0.050  8.145   10  0.142   10  0.104    9  0.156   10 0.5177   22  1.144   14  0.038    6  0.273
TENNESSEE      9  7 325 317 -0.122  7.278   14  0.027   14  0.023   18 -0.048   18 0.4981   23  1.144   22 -0.166   13  0.070
JACKSONVILLE   5 11 243 329 -0.094  7.874   27 -0.328   27 -0.343   26 -0.239   27 0.4255   30  0.871   29 -0.675    8  0.197
INDIANAPOLIS   2 14 243 430 -0.147  8.012   32 -0.632   32 -0.667   30 -0.390   32 0.3735   20  1.184   28 -0.458   26 -0.323

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BALTIMORE     13  5 418 302  0.053  8.914    6  0.398    6  0.381    7  0.242    6 0.5655   21  1.177    9  0.165    5  0.319
PITTSBURGH    12  5 348 256 -0.019  7.938    7  0.312    7  0.305    8  0.201    7 0.5598   28  0.943   21 -0.155    2  0.557
CINCINNATI     9  8 354 354 -0.033  8.341   13  0.035   13  0.025   20 -0.081   16 0.5023   14  1.307   16  0.014   22 -0.176
CLEVELAND      4 12 218 307 -0.075  8.016   29 -0.436   29 -0.448   24 -0.226   29 0.4159   31  0.818   30 -0.718    7  0.266

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   15  4 598 393  0.042  9.195    2  0.520    2  0.498    2  0.407    2 0.5911    4  1.549    3  0.850   17 -0.037
NY JETS        8  8 377 363  0.061  8.270   15  0.019   15  0.017   14  0.045   15 0.5028   13  1.322   10  0.161   20 -0.071
MIAMI          6 10 329 313  0.054  8.263   23 -0.150   24 -0.192   11  0.108   24 0.4625   26  1.043   20 -0.134    4  0.350
BUFFALO        6 10 372 434  0.046  8.482   24 -0.160   23 -0.168   22 -0.172   23 0.4662    7  1.475   11  0.161   30 -0.504

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN FRANCISCO 14  4 433 281  0.062  8.758    3  0.498    3  0.474    4  0.332    3 0.5850   27  1.031   13  0.076    1  0.588
ARIZONA        8  8 312 348 -0.036  8.026   16 -0.002   16 -0.005   21 -0.114   20 0.4899   19  1.190   23 -0.174   19 -0.053
SEATTLE        7  9 321 315  0.020  8.144   21 -0.090   21 -0.092   13  0.060   22 0.4807   17  1.193   17  0.004   12  0.117
ST. LOUIS      2 14 193 407  0.063  9.224   31 -0.526   31 -0.544   31 -0.482   31 0.3976   29  0.872   32 -0.917   18 -0.047

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ORLEANS   14  4 624 403  0.028  8.420    4  0.454    4  0.425    1  0.458    4 0.5814    1  1.657    1  1.069   21 -0.152
ATLANTA       10  7 404 374  0.028  8.592    9  0.170    9  0.152   16  0.030    9 0.5230   16  1.208   18 -0.006   14  0.067
CAROLINA       6 10 406 429 -0.078  7.691   25 -0.233   26 -0.250   19 -0.062   25 0.4510    5  1.513    8  0.327   29 -0.451
TAMPA BAY      4 12 287 494 -0.032  8.611   28 -0.377   28 -0.381   32 -0.493   28 0.4226   12  1.323   27 -0.376   32 -0.609

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GREEN BAY     15  2 580 396  0.007  7.870    1  0.626    1  0.612    6  0.277    1 0.6239    2  1.654    2  0.884   27 -0.330
DETROIT       10  7 502 432  0.080  8.709    8  0.186    8  0.169   10  0.148    8 0.5449    3  1.554    4  0.599   25 -0.302
CHICAGO        8  8 353 341 -0.005  7.948   17 -0.013   18 -0.019   17 -0.047   12 0.5082   25  1.099   24 -0.220   11  0.126
MINNESOTA      3 13 340 449 -0.067  8.060   30 -0.523   30 -0.543   28 -0.255   30 0.4123   10  1.353   19 -0.098   28 -0.413

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NY GIANTS     13  7 496 456  0.279 11.750    5  0.436    5  0.423    3  0.371    5 0.5710    9  1.367    5  0.549    9  0.193
PHILADELPHIA   8  8 396 328  0.107  8.425   11  0.080   11  0.043    5  0.277   17 0.5010   11  1.338    6  0.415   10  0.140
DALLAS         8  8 369 347  0.079  8.388   12  0.047   12  0.040   15  0.032   19 0.4975   15  1.228   15  0.022   15  0.042
WASHINGTON     5 11 288 367  0.063  8.679   26 -0.242   25 -0.249   23 -0.175   26 0.4360   24  1.100   26 -0.348   16 -0.002

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC EAST   35 32 0.522    1  0.202
NFC EAST   34 34 0.500    2  0.178
NFC NORTH  36 30 0.545    3  0.132
AFC NORTH  38 30 0.559    4  0.096
NFC SOUTH  34 33 0.507    5 -0.034
NFC WEST   31 35 0.470    6 -0.120
AFC SOUTH  27 39 0.409    7 -0.252
AFC WEST   32 34 0.485    8 -0.333

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.225 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.023 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:47:47 2020
games through: Sun Feb  5 2012

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.