Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ATLANTA       14  4  0 473 355  0.056  8.931    1  0.574    1  0.543    7  0.321    6 0.5698   16  1.272   10  0.326    4  0.317
SAN FRANCISCO 13  5  1 501 362  0.251 10.643    2  0.574    2  0.527    3  0.455    1 0.5911   17  1.271    6  0.459    3  0.452
DENVER        13  4  0 516 327  0.038  7.871    3  0.530    3  0.478    2  0.472    8 0.5632    8  1.391    3  0.640    5  0.303
BALTIMORE     14  6  0 522 432  0.137 10.584    4  0.500    4  0.470    5  0.362    7 0.5688   12  1.347    5  0.467    7  0.256
SEATTLE       12  6  0 464 289  0.218  9.874    5  0.448    5  0.416    1  0.604    4 0.5755   26  1.108    8  0.398    1  0.810
GREEN BAY     12  6  0 488 391  0.177  9.701    6  0.424    6  0.407    6  0.340    5 0.5749    7  1.415    4  0.542   13  0.137
NEW ENGLAND   13  5  0 611 387  0.028  8.320    7  0.408    8  0.386    4  0.455    2 0.5817    2  1.666    1  1.038   19 -0.127
HOUSTON       13  5  0 463 385 -0.033  8.375    8  0.376    7  0.398   15  0.052    3 0.5795   15  1.286   15  0.075   16  0.029
CHICAGO       10  6  0 375 277  0.086  8.145    9  0.249    9  0.254    8  0.221    9 0.5556   29  1.031   19 -0.077    2  0.520
MINNESOTA     10  7  0 389 372  0.132  9.208   10  0.221   10  0.244   11  0.159   10 0.5501   19  1.256   13  0.142   11  0.175
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WASHINGTON    10  7  0 450 412  0.094  9.020   11  0.200   11  0.213   12  0.142   12 0.5271    4  1.488    7  0.450   21 -0.166
NY GIANTS      9  7  0 429 344  0.130  8.481   12  0.178   12  0.171    9  0.220   13 0.5222   11  1.353    9  0.335   15  0.106
INDIANAPOLIS  11  6  0 366 411 -0.240  7.304   13  0.138   13  0.123   23 -0.199   11 0.5392   14  1.290   20 -0.170   23 -0.227
CINCINNATI    10  7  0 404 339 -0.071  7.797   14  0.108   14  0.092   10  0.179   15 0.5085   18  1.259   12  0.166   10  0.192
DALLAS         8  8  0 376 400  0.120  8.797   15  0.097   15  0.084   18 -0.027   16 0.5017    9  1.382   14  0.128   22 -0.181
ST. LOUIS      7  8  1 299 348  0.163  9.100   16  0.092   16  0.079   16  0.008   14 0.5122   25  1.108   21 -0.198    8  0.214
PITTSBURGH     8  8  0 336 314 -0.107  7.297   17 -0.047   18 -0.077   17 -0.009   18 0.4788   27  1.101   24 -0.223    9  0.206
CAROLINA       7  9  0 357 363  0.081  8.490   18 -0.049   17 -0.075   14  0.089   20 0.4718   20  1.233   17  0.042   14  0.137
NEW ORLEANS    7  9  0 461 454  0.088  8.444   19 -0.072   19 -0.094   13  0.120   19 0.4737    1  1.675    2  0.717   29 -0.478
TAMPA BAY      7  9  0 389 394  0.018  8.180   20 -0.105   20 -0.103   19 -0.096   21 0.4680   10  1.378   16  0.054   24 -0.246
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MIAMI          7  9  0 288 317 -0.144  7.391   21 -0.194   21 -0.204   21 -0.160   17 0.4794   32  0.923   28 -0.583    6  0.262
SAN DIEGO      7  9  0 350 350 -0.162  7.165   22 -0.213   22 -0.225   20 -0.146   26 0.4489   21  1.216   22 -0.217   18 -0.076
ARIZONA        5 11  0 250 357  0.118  9.183   23 -0.221   23 -0.228   25 -0.250   22 0.4652   30  0.931   30 -0.662   12  0.163
NY JETS        6 10  0 281 375 -0.144  7.633   24 -0.284   24 -0.301   27 -0.381   23 0.4624   28  1.085   29 -0.615   20 -0.146
TENNESSEE      6 10  0 330 471 -0.219  7.313   25 -0.323   25 -0.343   28 -0.432   24 0.4606    6  1.422   23 -0.221   32 -0.644
BUFFALO        6 10  0 344 435 -0.215  7.294   26 -0.330   26 -0.354   26 -0.295   25 0.4546    5  1.445   18 -0.050   31 -0.540
CLEVELAND      5 11  0 302 368 -0.104  7.711   27 -0.385   28 -0.414   24 -0.225   28 0.4270   23  1.127   26 -0.408   17 -0.042
DETROIT        4 12  0 372 437  0.054  8.571   28 -0.394   29 -0.422   22 -0.166   27 0.4449    3  1.523   11  0.195   30 -0.527
PHILADELPHIA   4 12  0 280 444  0.043  8.660   29 -0.404   27 -0.401   30 -0.455   29 0.4152   22  1.197   27 -0.549   26 -0.361
OAKLAND        4 12  0 290 443 -0.217  7.587   30 -0.550   30 -0.573   29 -0.434   30 0.3900   13  1.295   25 -0.399   28 -0.470
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KANSAS CITY    2 14  0 211 425 -0.168  7.864   31 -0.743   31 -0.760   32 -0.711   32 0.3601   31  0.923   32 -1.133   25 -0.289
JACKSONVILLE   2 14  0 255 444 -0.245  7.335   32 -0.803   32 -0.832   31 -0.646   31 0.3848   24  1.117   31 -0.841   27 -0.451

AFC WEST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DENVER        13  4  0 516 327  0.038  7.871    3  0.530    3  0.478    2  0.472    8 0.5632    8  1.391    3  0.640    5  0.303
SAN DIEGO      7  9  0 350 350 -0.162  7.165   22 -0.213   22 -0.225   20 -0.146   26 0.4489   21  1.216   22 -0.217   18 -0.076
OAKLAND        4 12  0 290 443 -0.217  7.587   30 -0.550   30 -0.573   29 -0.434   30 0.3900   13  1.295   25 -0.399   28 -0.470
KANSAS CITY    2 14  0 211 425 -0.168  7.864   31 -0.743   31 -0.760   32 -0.711   32 0.3601   31  0.923   32 -1.133   25 -0.289

AFC SOUTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HOUSTON       13  5  0 463 385 -0.033  8.375    8  0.376    7  0.398   15  0.052    3 0.5795   15  1.286   15  0.075   16  0.029
INDIANAPOLIS  11  6  0 366 411 -0.240  7.304   13  0.138   13  0.123   23 -0.199   11 0.5392   14  1.290   20 -0.170   23 -0.227
TENNESSEE      6 10  0 330 471 -0.219  7.313   25 -0.323   25 -0.343   28 -0.432   24 0.4606    6  1.422   23 -0.221   32 -0.644
JACKSONVILLE   2 14  0 255 444 -0.245  7.335   32 -0.803   32 -0.832   31 -0.646   31 0.3848   24  1.117   31 -0.841   27 -0.451

AFC NORTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BALTIMORE     14  6  0 522 432  0.137 10.584    4  0.500    4  0.470    5  0.362    7 0.5688   12  1.347    5  0.467    7  0.256
CINCINNATI    10  7  0 404 339 -0.071  7.797   14  0.108   14  0.092   10  0.179   15 0.5085   18  1.259   12  0.166   10  0.192
PITTSBURGH     8  8  0 336 314 -0.107  7.297   17 -0.047   18 -0.077   17 -0.009   18 0.4788   27  1.101   24 -0.223    9  0.206
CLEVELAND      5 11  0 302 368 -0.104  7.711   27 -0.385   28 -0.414   24 -0.225   28 0.4270   23  1.127   26 -0.408   17 -0.042

AFC EAST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   13  5  0 611 387  0.028  8.320    7  0.408    8  0.386    4  0.455    2 0.5817    2  1.666    1  1.038   19 -0.127
MIAMI          7  9  0 288 317 -0.144  7.391   21 -0.194   21 -0.204   21 -0.160   17 0.4794   32  0.923   28 -0.583    6  0.262
NY JETS        6 10  0 281 375 -0.144  7.633   24 -0.284   24 -0.301   27 -0.381   23 0.4624   28  1.085   29 -0.615   20 -0.146
BUFFALO        6 10  0 344 435 -0.215  7.294   26 -0.330   26 -0.354   26 -0.295   25 0.4546    5  1.445   18 -0.050   31 -0.540

NFC WEST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN FRANCISCO 13  5  1 501 362  0.251 10.643    2  0.574    2  0.527    3  0.455    1 0.5911   17  1.271    6  0.459    3  0.452
SEATTLE       12  6  0 464 289  0.218  9.874    5  0.448    5  0.416    1  0.604    4 0.5755   26  1.108    8  0.398    1  0.810
ST. LOUIS      7  8  1 299 348  0.163  9.100   16  0.092   16  0.079   16  0.008   14 0.5122   25  1.108   21 -0.198    8  0.214
ARIZONA        5 11  0 250 357  0.118  9.183   23 -0.221   23 -0.228   25 -0.250   22 0.4652   30  0.931   30 -0.662   12  0.163

NFC SOUTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ATLANTA       14  4  0 473 355  0.056  8.931    1  0.574    1  0.543    7  0.321    6 0.5698   16  1.272   10  0.326    4  0.317
CAROLINA       7  9  0 357 363  0.081  8.490   18 -0.049   17 -0.075   14  0.089   20 0.4718   20  1.233   17  0.042   14  0.137
NEW ORLEANS    7  9  0 461 454  0.088  8.444   19 -0.072   19 -0.094   13  0.120   19 0.4737    1  1.675    2  0.717   29 -0.478
TAMPA BAY      7  9  0 389 394  0.018  8.180   20 -0.105   20 -0.103   19 -0.096   21 0.4680   10  1.378   16  0.054   24 -0.246

NFC NORTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GREEN BAY     12  6  0 488 391  0.177  9.701    6  0.424    6  0.407    6  0.340    5 0.5749    7  1.415    4  0.542   13  0.137
CHICAGO       10  6  0 375 277  0.086  8.145    9  0.249    9  0.254    8  0.221    9 0.5556   29  1.031   19 -0.077    2  0.520
MINNESOTA     10  7  0 389 372  0.132  9.208   10  0.221   10  0.244   11  0.159   10 0.5501   19  1.256   13  0.142   11  0.175
DETROIT        4 12  0 372 437  0.054  8.571   28 -0.394   29 -0.422   22 -0.166   27 0.4449    3  1.523   11  0.195   30 -0.527

NFC EAST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WASHINGTON    10  7  0 450 412  0.094  9.020   11  0.200   11  0.213   12  0.142   12 0.5271    4  1.488    7  0.450   21 -0.166
NY GIANTS      9  7  0 429 344  0.130  8.481   12  0.178   12  0.171    9  0.220   13 0.5222   11  1.353    9  0.335   15  0.106
DALLAS         8  8  0 376 400  0.120  8.797   15  0.097   15  0.084   18 -0.027   16 0.5017    9  1.382   14  0.128   22 -0.181
PHILADELPHIA   4 12  0 280 444  0.043  8.660   29 -0.404   27 -0.401   30 -0.455   29 0.4152   22  1.197   27 -0.549   26 -0.361

DIVISION    W  L  T   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC WEST   37 30  2 0.551    1  0.309
NFC NORTH  36 31  0 0.537    2  0.241
NFC SOUTH  35 31  0 0.530    3  0.165
AFC NORTH  37 32  0 0.536    4  0.064
NFC EAST   31 34  0 0.477    5  0.004
AFC EAST   32 34  0 0.485    6 -0.161
AFC WEST   26 39  0 0.400    7 -0.358
AFC SOUTH  32 35  0 0.478    8 -0.475

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.175 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.023 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:48:01 2020
games through: Sun Feb  3 2013

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