Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ATLANTA       14  4  0 473 355  0.056  8.932    1  0.575    1  0.543    7  0.321    6 0.5698   16  1.272   10  0.325    4  0.317
SAN FRANCISCO 13  5  1 501 362  0.250 10.643    2  0.574    2  0.526    3  0.455    1 0.5911   17  1.271    6  0.458    3  0.452
DENVER        13  4  0 516 327  0.038  7.871    3  0.530    3  0.477    2  0.471    8 0.5632    8  1.391    3  0.639    5  0.303
BALTIMORE     14  6  0 522 432  0.136 10.584    4  0.500    4  0.470    5  0.361    7 0.5688   12  1.347    5  0.467    7  0.256
SEATTLE       12  6  0 464 289  0.218  9.874    5  0.448    5  0.416    1  0.603    4 0.5755   26  1.108    8  0.397    1  0.809
GREEN BAY     12  6  0 488 391  0.176  9.701    6  0.424    6  0.407    6  0.339    5 0.5749    7  1.415    4  0.541   13  0.137
NEW ENGLAND   13  5  0 611 387  0.028  8.319    7  0.408    8  0.385    4  0.454    2 0.5817    2  1.666    1  1.037   19 -0.128
HOUSTON       13  5  0 463 385 -0.034  8.375    8  0.376    7  0.398   15  0.052    3 0.5795   15  1.286   15  0.074   16  0.029
CHICAGO       10  6  0 375 277  0.086  8.145    9  0.249    9  0.254    8  0.221    9 0.5556   29  1.031   19 -0.078    2  0.520
MINNESOTA     10  7  0 389 372  0.132  9.208   10  0.222   10  0.243   11  0.158   10 0.5501   19  1.256   13  0.141   11  0.175
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WASHINGTON    10  7  0 450 412  0.093  9.020   11  0.200   11  0.212   12  0.141   12 0.5271    4  1.488    7  0.449   21 -0.166
NY GIANTS      9  7  0 429 344  0.129  8.481   12  0.178   12  0.171    9  0.220   13 0.5222   11  1.353    9  0.334   15  0.105
INDIANAPOLIS  11  6  0 366 411 -0.240  7.303   13  0.138   13  0.123   23 -0.200   11 0.5392   14  1.290   20 -0.171   23 -0.228
CINCINNATI    10  7  0 404 339 -0.072  7.796   14  0.108   14  0.092   10  0.178   15 0.5085   18  1.259   12  0.165   10  0.191
DALLAS         8  8  0 376 400  0.119  8.797   15  0.097   15  0.083   18 -0.027   16 0.5017    9  1.382   14  0.127   22 -0.182
ST. LOUIS      7  8  1 299 348  0.162  9.100   16  0.092   16  0.078   16  0.008   14 0.5122   25  1.108   21 -0.198    8  0.214
PITTSBURGH     8  8  0 336 314 -0.107  7.297   17 -0.047   18 -0.078   17 -0.009   18 0.4788   27  1.101   24 -0.224    9  0.205
CAROLINA       7  9  0 357 363  0.080  8.490   18 -0.049   17 -0.076   14  0.089   20 0.4718   20  1.233   17  0.041   14  0.136
NEW ORLEANS    7  9  0 461 454  0.088  8.444   19 -0.072   19 -0.095   13  0.119   19 0.4737    1  1.675    2  0.716   29 -0.478
TAMPA BAY      7  9  0 389 394  0.018  8.180   20 -0.105   20 -0.104   19 -0.096   21 0.4680   10  1.378   16  0.054   24 -0.246
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MIAMI          7  9  0 288 317 -0.145  7.390   21 -0.195   21 -0.205   21 -0.161   17 0.4794   32  0.923   28 -0.583    6  0.261
SAN DIEGO      7  9  0 350 350 -0.163  7.165   22 -0.213   22 -0.226   20 -0.147   26 0.4489   21  1.216   22 -0.217   18 -0.077
ARIZONA        5 11  0 250 357  0.118  9.182   23 -0.221   23 -0.229   25 -0.250   22 0.4652   30  0.931   30 -0.663   12  0.163
NY JETS        6 10  0 281 375 -0.145  7.632   24 -0.284   24 -0.302   27 -0.381   23 0.4624   28  1.085   29 -0.616   20 -0.147
TENNESSEE      6 10  0 330 471 -0.220  7.312   25 -0.323   25 -0.344   28 -0.433   24 0.4606    6  1.422   23 -0.221   32 -0.644
BUFFALO        6 10  0 344 435 -0.216  7.293   26 -0.330   26 -0.355   26 -0.296   25 0.4546    5  1.445   18 -0.051   31 -0.541
CLEVELAND      5 11  0 302 368 -0.104  7.712   27 -0.385   28 -0.415   24 -0.226   28 0.4270   23  1.127   26 -0.409   17 -0.043
DETROIT        4 12  0 372 437  0.053  8.571   28 -0.394   29 -0.422   22 -0.166   27 0.4449    3  1.523   11  0.195   30 -0.527
PHILADELPHIA   4 12  0 280 444  0.042  8.659   29 -0.404   27 -0.402   30 -0.455   29 0.4152   22  1.197   27 -0.549   26 -0.362
OAKLAND        4 12  0 290 443 -0.217  7.588   30 -0.550   30 -0.573   29 -0.435   30 0.3900   13  1.295   25 -0.399   28 -0.470
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KANSAS CITY    2 14  0 211 425 -0.168  7.865   31 -0.743   31 -0.761   32 -0.712   32 0.3601   31  0.923   32 -1.133   25 -0.290
JACKSONVILLE   2 14  0 255 444 -0.246  7.335   32 -0.803   32 -0.833   31 -0.647   31 0.3848   24  1.117   31 -0.842   27 -0.452

AFC WEST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DENVER        13  4  0 516 327  0.038  7.871    3  0.530    3  0.477    2  0.471    8 0.5632    8  1.391    3  0.639    5  0.303
SAN DIEGO      7  9  0 350 350 -0.163  7.165   22 -0.213   22 -0.226   20 -0.147   26 0.4489   21  1.216   22 -0.217   18 -0.077
OAKLAND        4 12  0 290 443 -0.217  7.588   30 -0.550   30 -0.573   29 -0.435   30 0.3900   13  1.295   25 -0.399   28 -0.470
KANSAS CITY    2 14  0 211 425 -0.168  7.865   31 -0.743   31 -0.761   32 -0.712   32 0.3601   31  0.923   32 -1.133   25 -0.290

AFC SOUTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HOUSTON       13  5  0 463 385 -0.034  8.375    8  0.376    7  0.398   15  0.052    3 0.5795   15  1.286   15  0.074   16  0.029
INDIANAPOLIS  11  6  0 366 411 -0.240  7.303   13  0.138   13  0.123   23 -0.200   11 0.5392   14  1.290   20 -0.171   23 -0.228
TENNESSEE      6 10  0 330 471 -0.220  7.312   25 -0.323   25 -0.344   28 -0.433   24 0.4606    6  1.422   23 -0.221   32 -0.644
JACKSONVILLE   2 14  0 255 444 -0.246  7.335   32 -0.803   32 -0.833   31 -0.647   31 0.3848   24  1.117   31 -0.842   27 -0.452

AFC NORTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BALTIMORE     14  6  0 522 432  0.136 10.584    4  0.500    4  0.470    5  0.361    7 0.5688   12  1.347    5  0.467    7  0.256
CINCINNATI    10  7  0 404 339 -0.072  7.796   14  0.108   14  0.092   10  0.178   15 0.5085   18  1.259   12  0.165   10  0.191
PITTSBURGH     8  8  0 336 314 -0.107  7.297   17 -0.047   18 -0.078   17 -0.009   18 0.4788   27  1.101   24 -0.224    9  0.205
CLEVELAND      5 11  0 302 368 -0.104  7.712   27 -0.385   28 -0.415   24 -0.226   28 0.4270   23  1.127   26 -0.409   17 -0.043

AFC EAST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   13  5  0 611 387  0.028  8.319    7  0.408    8  0.385    4  0.454    2 0.5817    2  1.666    1  1.037   19 -0.128
MIAMI          7  9  0 288 317 -0.145  7.390   21 -0.195   21 -0.205   21 -0.161   17 0.4794   32  0.923   28 -0.583    6  0.261
NY JETS        6 10  0 281 375 -0.145  7.632   24 -0.284   24 -0.302   27 -0.381   23 0.4624   28  1.085   29 -0.616   20 -0.147
BUFFALO        6 10  0 344 435 -0.216  7.293   26 -0.330   26 -0.355   26 -0.296   25 0.4546    5  1.445   18 -0.051   31 -0.541

NFC WEST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN FRANCISCO 13  5  1 501 362  0.250 10.643    2  0.574    2  0.526    3  0.455    1 0.5911   17  1.271    6  0.458    3  0.452
SEATTLE       12  6  0 464 289  0.218  9.874    5  0.448    5  0.416    1  0.603    4 0.5755   26  1.108    8  0.397    1  0.809
ST. LOUIS      7  8  1 299 348  0.162  9.100   16  0.092   16  0.078   16  0.008   14 0.5122   25  1.108   21 -0.198    8  0.214
ARIZONA        5 11  0 250 357  0.118  9.182   23 -0.221   23 -0.229   25 -0.250   22 0.4652   30  0.931   30 -0.663   12  0.163

NFC SOUTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ATLANTA       14  4  0 473 355  0.056  8.932    1  0.575    1  0.543    7  0.321    6 0.5698   16  1.272   10  0.325    4  0.317
CAROLINA       7  9  0 357 363  0.080  8.490   18 -0.049   17 -0.076   14  0.089   20 0.4718   20  1.233   17  0.041   14  0.136
NEW ORLEANS    7  9  0 461 454  0.088  8.444   19 -0.072   19 -0.095   13  0.119   19 0.4737    1  1.675    2  0.716   29 -0.478
TAMPA BAY      7  9  0 389 394  0.018  8.180   20 -0.105   20 -0.104   19 -0.096   21 0.4680   10  1.378   16  0.054   24 -0.246

NFC NORTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GREEN BAY     12  6  0 488 391  0.176  9.701    6  0.424    6  0.407    6  0.339    5 0.5749    7  1.415    4  0.541   13  0.137
CHICAGO       10  6  0 375 277  0.086  8.145    9  0.249    9  0.254    8  0.221    9 0.5556   29  1.031   19 -0.078    2  0.520
MINNESOTA     10  7  0 389 372  0.132  9.208   10  0.222   10  0.243   11  0.158   10 0.5501   19  1.256   13  0.141   11  0.175
DETROIT        4 12  0 372 437  0.053  8.571   28 -0.394   29 -0.422   22 -0.166   27 0.4449    3  1.523   11  0.195   30 -0.527

NFC EAST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WASHINGTON    10  7  0 450 412  0.093  9.020   11  0.200   11  0.212   12  0.141   12 0.5271    4  1.488    7  0.449   21 -0.166
NY GIANTS      9  7  0 429 344  0.129  8.481   12  0.178   12  0.171    9  0.220   13 0.5222   11  1.353    9  0.334   15  0.105
DALLAS         8  8  0 376 400  0.119  8.797   15  0.097   15  0.083   18 -0.027   16 0.5017    9  1.382   14  0.127   22 -0.182
PHILADELPHIA   4 12  0 280 444  0.042  8.659   29 -0.404   27 -0.402   30 -0.455   29 0.4152   22  1.197   27 -0.549   26 -0.362

DIVISION    W  L  T   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC WEST   37 30  2 0.551    1  0.309
NFC NORTH  36 31  0 0.537    2  0.240
NFC SOUTH  35 31  0 0.530    3  0.164
AFC NORTH  37 32  0 0.536    4  0.064
NFC EAST   31 34  0 0.477    5  0.003
AFC EAST   32 34  0 0.485    6 -0.162
AFC WEST   26 39  0 0.400    7 -0.358
AFC SOUTH  32 35  0 0.478    8 -0.476

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.175 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.023 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:04:29 2024
games through: Sun Feb  3 2013

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