Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SEAHAWKS   16  3  0 506 271  0.309 10.919    1  0.811    1  0.778    1  0.760    1 0.6364   30  1.034    3  0.428    1  1.093
49ERS      14  5  0 469 325  0.319 11.138    2  0.614    2  0.600    2  0.519    2 0.6057   26  1.140    5  0.315    3  0.723
BRONCOS    15  4  0 664 475  0.085  9.683    3  0.575    3  0.555    3  0.336    3 0.5901    1  1.764    1  1.044   25 -0.371
PANTHERS   12  5  0 376 264  0.184  9.407    4  0.469    4  0.444    6  0.277    4 0.5857   32  0.929   22 -0.176    2  0.729
SAINTS     12  6  0 455 351  0.248 10.415    5  0.444    5  0.417    4  0.332    5 0.5819   19  1.259    9  0.281    4  0.382
PATRIOTS   13  5  0 503 386  0.007  8.945    6  0.405    6  0.374    7  0.265    6 0.5750    9  1.415    2  0.430   13  0.099
CARDINALS  10  6  0 379 324  0.263  9.412    7  0.386    8  0.360    5  0.323    7 0.5665   17  1.271    8  0.289    5  0.358
COLTS      12  6  0 458 423  0.117  9.765    8  0.383    7  0.366   11  0.138    8 0.5633    7  1.443    4  0.344   16 -0.067
CHIEFS     11  6  0 474 350 -0.031  8.083    9  0.235    9  0.201    9  0.206    9 0.5327   16  1.306   11  0.220    8  0.193
BENGALS    11  6  0 440 332 -0.131  7.691   10  0.186   10  0.147   10  0.143   10 0.5281   21  1.236   16  0.062    7  0.223
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHARGERS   10  8  0 440 382  0.052  9.386   11  0.145   11  0.104    8  0.223   11 0.5187   22  1.206   14  0.103    6  0.344
EAGLES     10  7  0 466 408 -0.096  8.050   12  0.099   12  0.069   13  0.096   13 0.5072    8  1.438    7  0.295   19 -0.102
RAMS        7  9  0 348 364  0.228  9.608   13  0.052   13  0.025   12  0.098   12 0.5106   18  1.260   17  0.049   10  0.147
DOLPHINS    8  8  0 317 335 -0.032  8.178   14  0.005   14 -0.029   18 -0.127   14 0.5058   27  1.119   25 -0.356   12  0.103
JETS        8  8  0 290 387 -0.105  8.072   15 -0.035   15 -0.041   27 -0.272   15 0.4958   25  1.163   27 -0.447   18 -0.098
COWBOYS     8  8  0 439 432 -0.095  7.642   16 -0.066   16 -0.074   16 -0.083   17 0.4811    4  1.546   10  0.276   29 -0.442
RAVENS      8  8  0 320 352 -0.180  7.302   17 -0.102   17 -0.114   24 -0.193   18 0.4787   29  1.061   29 -0.493   11  0.106
PACKERS     8  8  1 437 451 -0.170  7.811   18 -0.105   20 -0.127   22 -0.173   20 0.4737    6  1.477   15  0.082   27 -0.429
BEARS       8  8  0 445 478 -0.190  7.233   19 -0.108   18 -0.123   25 -0.234   21 0.4703    2  1.662    6  0.307   32 -0.774
GIANTS      7  9  0 294 383 -0.065  8.299   20 -0.120   19 -0.126   23 -0.193   22 0.4697   31  1.009   30 -0.555    9  0.169
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TITANS      7  9  0 362 381  0.004  8.320   21 -0.121   21 -0.128   15 -0.056   16 0.4865   14  1.316   19 -0.029   17 -0.083
STEELERS    8  8  0 379 370 -0.214  6.940   22 -0.148   22 -0.148   14 -0.008   19 0.4739   11  1.336   18  0.046   15 -0.062
LIONS       7  9  0 395 376 -0.222  6.912   23 -0.257   23 -0.258   17 -0.119   25 0.4475   15  1.307   21 -0.105   20 -0.132
BILLS       6 10  0 339 388 -0.089  7.912   24 -0.265   24 -0.264   19 -0.134   23 0.4618   13  1.329   20 -0.091   21 -0.178
BUCCANEERS  4 12  0 288 389  0.162  9.598   25 -0.326   25 -0.332   21 -0.149   24 0.4501   24  1.167   24 -0.318   14  0.021
VIKINGS     5 10  1 391 480 -0.160  7.694   26 -0.335   26 -0.347   26 -0.263   27 0.4311    3  1.561   13  0.118   31 -0.644
FALCONS     4 12  0 353 443  0.116  9.326   27 -0.356   27 -0.366   20 -0.143   26 0.4448    5  1.502   12  0.150   28 -0.436
JAGUARS     4 12  0 247 449 -0.054  8.814   28 -0.406   28 -0.422   31 -0.434   28 0.4250   28  1.113   32 -0.671   22 -0.197
RAIDERS     4 12  0 322 453 -0.096  8.245   29 -0.437   29 -0.475   28 -0.361   29 0.4146   12  1.331   23 -0.314   26 -0.407
BROWNS      4 12  0 308 406 -0.209  7.424   30 -0.500   30 -0.544   29 -0.393   30 0.4028   20  1.244   28 -0.464   24 -0.322
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
REDSKINS    3 13  0 334 478 -0.111  8.071   31 -0.543   31 -0.588   32 -0.435   32 0.3860   10  1.349   26 -0.363   30 -0.507
TEXANS      2 14  0 276 428  0.010  9.116   32 -0.579   32 -0.627   30 -0.405   31 0.3984   23  1.178   31 -0.561   23 -0.250

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRONCOS    15  4  0 664 475  0.085  9.683    3  0.575    3  0.555    3  0.336    3 0.5901    1  1.764    1  1.044   25 -0.371
CHIEFS     11  6  0 474 350 -0.031  8.083    9  0.235    9  0.201    9  0.206    9 0.5327   16  1.306   11  0.220    8  0.193
CHARGERS   10  8  0 440 382  0.052  9.386   11  0.145   11  0.104    8  0.223   11 0.5187   22  1.206   14  0.103    6  0.344
RAIDERS     4 12  0 322 453 -0.096  8.245   29 -0.437   29 -0.475   28 -0.361   29 0.4146   12  1.331   23 -0.314   26 -0.407

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COLTS      12  6  0 458 423  0.117  9.765    8  0.383    7  0.366   11  0.138    8 0.5633    7  1.443    4  0.344   16 -0.067
TITANS      7  9  0 362 381  0.004  8.320   21 -0.121   21 -0.128   15 -0.056   16 0.4865   14  1.316   19 -0.029   17 -0.083
JAGUARS     4 12  0 247 449 -0.054  8.814   28 -0.406   28 -0.422   31 -0.434   28 0.4250   28  1.113   32 -0.671   22 -0.197
TEXANS      2 14  0 276 428  0.010  9.116   32 -0.579   32 -0.627   30 -0.405   31 0.3984   23  1.178   31 -0.561   23 -0.250

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BENGALS    11  6  0 440 332 -0.131  7.691   10  0.186   10  0.147   10  0.143   10 0.5281   21  1.236   16  0.062    7  0.223
RAVENS      8  8  0 320 352 -0.180  7.302   17 -0.102   17 -0.114   24 -0.193   18 0.4787   29  1.061   29 -0.493   11  0.106
STEELERS    8  8  0 379 370 -0.214  6.940   22 -0.148   22 -0.148   14 -0.008   19 0.4739   11  1.336   18  0.046   15 -0.062
BROWNS      4 12  0 308 406 -0.209  7.424   30 -0.500   30 -0.544   29 -0.393   30 0.4028   20  1.244   28 -0.464   24 -0.322

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PATRIOTS   13  5  0 503 386  0.007  8.945    6  0.405    6  0.374    7  0.265    6 0.5750    9  1.415    2  0.430   13  0.099
DOLPHINS    8  8  0 317 335 -0.032  8.178   14  0.005   14 -0.029   18 -0.127   14 0.5058   27  1.119   25 -0.356   12  0.103
JETS        8  8  0 290 387 -0.105  8.072   15 -0.035   15 -0.041   27 -0.272   15 0.4958   25  1.163   27 -0.447   18 -0.098
BILLS       6 10  0 339 388 -0.089  7.912   24 -0.265   24 -0.264   19 -0.134   23 0.4618   13  1.329   20 -0.091   21 -0.178

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SEAHAWKS   16  3  0 506 271  0.309 10.919    1  0.811    1  0.778    1  0.760    1 0.6364   30  1.034    3  0.428    1  1.093
49ERS      14  5  0 469 325  0.319 11.138    2  0.614    2  0.600    2  0.519    2 0.6057   26  1.140    5  0.315    3  0.723
CARDINALS  10  6  0 379 324  0.263  9.412    7  0.386    8  0.360    5  0.323    7 0.5665   17  1.271    8  0.289    5  0.358
RAMS        7  9  0 348 364  0.228  9.608   13  0.052   13  0.025   12  0.098   12 0.5106   18  1.260   17  0.049   10  0.147

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PANTHERS   12  5  0 376 264  0.184  9.407    4  0.469    4  0.444    6  0.277    4 0.5857   32  0.929   22 -0.176    2  0.729
SAINTS     12  6  0 455 351  0.248 10.415    5  0.444    5  0.417    4  0.332    5 0.5819   19  1.259    9  0.281    4  0.382
BUCCANEERS  4 12  0 288 389  0.162  9.598   25 -0.326   25 -0.332   21 -0.149   24 0.4501   24  1.167   24 -0.318   14  0.021
FALCONS     4 12  0 353 443  0.116  9.326   27 -0.356   27 -0.366   20 -0.143   26 0.4448    5  1.502   12  0.150   28 -0.436

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PACKERS     8  8  1 437 451 -0.170  7.811   18 -0.105   20 -0.127   22 -0.173   20 0.4737    6  1.477   15  0.082   27 -0.429
BEARS       8  8  0 445 478 -0.190  7.233   19 -0.108   18 -0.123   25 -0.234   21 0.4703    2  1.662    6  0.307   32 -0.774
LIONS       7  9  0 395 376 -0.222  6.912   23 -0.257   23 -0.258   17 -0.119   25 0.4475   15  1.307   21 -0.105   20 -0.132
VIKINGS     5 10  1 391 480 -0.160  7.694   26 -0.335   26 -0.347   26 -0.263   27 0.4311    3  1.561   13  0.118   31 -0.644

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
EAGLES     10  7  0 466 408 -0.096  8.050   12  0.099   12  0.069   13  0.096   13 0.5072    8  1.438    7  0.295   19 -0.102
COWBOYS     8  8  0 439 432 -0.095  7.642   16 -0.066   16 -0.074   16 -0.083   17 0.4811    4  1.546   10  0.276   29 -0.442
GIANTS      7  9  0 294 383 -0.065  8.299   20 -0.120   19 -0.126   23 -0.193   22 0.4697   31  1.009   30 -0.555    9  0.169
REDSKINS    3 13  0 334 478 -0.111  8.071   31 -0.543   31 -0.588   32 -0.435   32 0.3860   10  1.349   26 -0.363   30 -0.507

DIVISION    W  L  T   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC WEST   47 23  0 0.671    1  0.626
AFC WEST   40 30  0 0.571    2  0.210
NFC SOUTH  32 35  0 0.478    3  0.172
AFC EAST   35 31  0 0.530    4 -0.131
AFC NORTH  31 34  0 0.477    5 -0.184
NFC EAST   28 37  0 0.431    6 -0.257
NFC NORTH  28 35  2 0.446    7 -0.295
AFC SOUTH  25 41  0 0.379    8 -0.312

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.202 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.029 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:48:16 2020
games through: Sun Feb  2 2014

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