Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SEAHAWKS   16  3  0 506 271  0.310 10.920    1  0.811    1  0.780    1  0.761    1 0.6364   30  1.034    3  0.429    1  1.094
49ERS      14  5  0 469 325  0.320 11.139    2  0.615    2  0.601    2  0.520    2 0.6057   26  1.140    5  0.316    3  0.724
BRONCOS    15  4  0 664 475  0.086  9.684    3  0.575    3  0.556    3  0.337    3 0.5901    1  1.764    1  1.045   25 -0.370
PANTHERS   12  5  0 376 264  0.185  9.406    4  0.469    4  0.445    6  0.277    4 0.5857   32  0.929   22 -0.175    2  0.730
SAINTS     12  6  0 455 351  0.249 10.416    5  0.444    5  0.418    4  0.333    5 0.5819   19  1.259    9  0.283    4  0.383
PATRIOTS   13  5  0 503 386  0.008  8.944    6  0.405    6  0.375    7  0.265    6 0.5750    9  1.415    2  0.431   13  0.100
CARDINALS  10  6  0 379 324  0.265  9.412    7  0.386    8  0.361    5  0.324    7 0.5665   17  1.271    8  0.290    5  0.359
COLTS      12  6  0 458 423  0.118  9.766    8  0.383    7  0.367   11  0.139    8 0.5633    7  1.443    4  0.345   16 -0.066
CHIEFS     11  6  0 474 350 -0.030  8.084    9  0.234    9  0.202    9  0.207    9 0.5327   16  1.306   11  0.221    8  0.194
BENGALS    11  6  0 440 332 -0.131  7.691   10  0.186   10  0.148   10  0.144   10 0.5281   21  1.236   16  0.063    7  0.224
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHARGERS   10  8  0 440 382  0.053  9.386   11  0.145   11  0.104    8  0.224   11 0.5187   22  1.206   14  0.104    6  0.345
EAGLES     10  7  0 466 408 -0.095  8.051   12  0.099   12  0.070   13  0.097   13 0.5072    8  1.438    7  0.296   19 -0.101
RAMS        7  9  0 348 364  0.229  9.608   13  0.052   13  0.026   12  0.099   12 0.5106   18  1.260   17  0.050   10  0.148
DOLPHINS    8  8  0 317 335 -0.031  8.178   14  0.005   14 -0.028   18 -0.126   14 0.5058   27  1.119   25 -0.355   12  0.103
JETS        8  8  0 290 387 -0.104  8.071   15 -0.035   15 -0.040   27 -0.272   15 0.4958   25  1.163   27 -0.446   18 -0.097
COWBOYS     8  8  0 439 432 -0.094  7.643   16 -0.065   16 -0.073   16 -0.082   17 0.4811    4  1.546   10  0.277   29 -0.441
RAVENS      8  8  0 320 352 -0.180  7.301   17 -0.102   17 -0.113   24 -0.192   18 0.4787   29  1.061   29 -0.492   11  0.107
PACKERS     8  8  1 437 451 -0.169  7.811   18 -0.105   20 -0.126   22 -0.173   20 0.4737    6  1.477   15  0.083   27 -0.428
BEARS       8  8  0 445 478 -0.189  7.233   19 -0.108   18 -0.122   25 -0.233   21 0.4703    2  1.662    6  0.308   32 -0.773
GIANTS      7  9  0 294 383 -0.064  8.300   20 -0.120   19 -0.125   23 -0.192   22 0.4697   31  1.009   30 -0.553    9  0.170
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TITANS      7  9  0 362 381  0.005  8.321   21 -0.121   21 -0.127   15 -0.055   16 0.4865   14  1.316   19 -0.028   17 -0.082
STEELERS    8  8  0 379 370 -0.213  6.939   22 -0.149   22 -0.147   14 -0.007   19 0.4739   11  1.336   18  0.046   15 -0.061
LIONS       7  9  0 395 376 -0.221  6.912   23 -0.257   23 -0.257   17 -0.118   25 0.4475   15  1.307   21 -0.104   20 -0.131
BILLS       6 10  0 339 388 -0.088  7.911   24 -0.265   24 -0.263   19 -0.133   23 0.4618   13  1.329   20 -0.090   21 -0.177
BUCCANEERS  4 12  0 288 389  0.163  9.598   25 -0.326   25 -0.332   21 -0.148   24 0.4501   24  1.167   24 -0.318   14  0.022
VIKINGS     5 10  1 391 480 -0.159  7.694   26 -0.335   26 -0.346   26 -0.262   27 0.4311    3  1.561   13  0.119   31 -0.643
FALCONS     4 12  0 353 443  0.117  9.327   27 -0.356   27 -0.365   20 -0.142   26 0.4448    5  1.502   12  0.151   28 -0.435
JAGUARS     4 12  0 247 449 -0.053  8.814   28 -0.406   28 -0.421   31 -0.433   28 0.4250   28  1.113   32 -0.670   22 -0.196
RAIDERS     4 12  0 322 453 -0.095  8.247   29 -0.437   29 -0.474   28 -0.360   29 0.4146   12  1.331   23 -0.313   26 -0.406
BROWNS      4 12  0 308 406 -0.208  7.423   30 -0.500   30 -0.543   29 -0.392   30 0.4028   20  1.244   28 -0.463   24 -0.321
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
REDSKINS    3 13  0 334 478 -0.110  8.072   31 -0.543   31 -0.587   32 -0.434   32 0.3860   10  1.349   26 -0.362   30 -0.506
TEXANS      2 14  0 276 428  0.011  9.116   32 -0.579   32 -0.626   30 -0.404   31 0.3984   23  1.178   31 -0.560   23 -0.249

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRONCOS    15  4  0 664 475  0.086  9.684    3  0.575    3  0.556    3  0.337    3 0.5901    1  1.764    1  1.045   25 -0.370
CHIEFS     11  6  0 474 350 -0.030  8.084    9  0.234    9  0.202    9  0.207    9 0.5327   16  1.306   11  0.221    8  0.194
CHARGERS   10  8  0 440 382  0.053  9.386   11  0.145   11  0.104    8  0.224   11 0.5187   22  1.206   14  0.104    6  0.345
RAIDERS     4 12  0 322 453 -0.095  8.247   29 -0.437   29 -0.474   28 -0.360   29 0.4146   12  1.331   23 -0.313   26 -0.406

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COLTS      12  6  0 458 423  0.118  9.766    8  0.383    7  0.367   11  0.139    8 0.5633    7  1.443    4  0.345   16 -0.066
TITANS      7  9  0 362 381  0.005  8.321   21 -0.121   21 -0.127   15 -0.055   16 0.4865   14  1.316   19 -0.028   17 -0.082
JAGUARS     4 12  0 247 449 -0.053  8.814   28 -0.406   28 -0.421   31 -0.433   28 0.4250   28  1.113   32 -0.670   22 -0.196
TEXANS      2 14  0 276 428  0.011  9.116   32 -0.579   32 -0.626   30 -0.404   31 0.3984   23  1.178   31 -0.560   23 -0.249

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BENGALS    11  6  0 440 332 -0.131  7.691   10  0.186   10  0.148   10  0.144   10 0.5281   21  1.236   16  0.063    7  0.224
RAVENS      8  8  0 320 352 -0.180  7.301   17 -0.102   17 -0.113   24 -0.192   18 0.4787   29  1.061   29 -0.492   11  0.107
STEELERS    8  8  0 379 370 -0.213  6.939   22 -0.149   22 -0.147   14 -0.007   19 0.4739   11  1.336   18  0.046   15 -0.061
BROWNS      4 12  0 308 406 -0.208  7.423   30 -0.500   30 -0.543   29 -0.392   30 0.4028   20  1.244   28 -0.463   24 -0.321

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PATRIOTS   13  5  0 503 386  0.008  8.944    6  0.405    6  0.375    7  0.265    6 0.5750    9  1.415    2  0.431   13  0.100
DOLPHINS    8  8  0 317 335 -0.031  8.178   14  0.005   14 -0.028   18 -0.126   14 0.5058   27  1.119   25 -0.355   12  0.103
JETS        8  8  0 290 387 -0.104  8.071   15 -0.035   15 -0.040   27 -0.272   15 0.4958   25  1.163   27 -0.446   18 -0.097
BILLS       6 10  0 339 388 -0.088  7.911   24 -0.265   24 -0.263   19 -0.133   23 0.4618   13  1.329   20 -0.090   21 -0.177

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SEAHAWKS   16  3  0 506 271  0.310 10.920    1  0.811    1  0.780    1  0.761    1 0.6364   30  1.034    3  0.429    1  1.094
49ERS      14  5  0 469 325  0.320 11.139    2  0.615    2  0.601    2  0.520    2 0.6057   26  1.140    5  0.316    3  0.724
CARDINALS  10  6  0 379 324  0.265  9.412    7  0.386    8  0.361    5  0.324    7 0.5665   17  1.271    8  0.290    5  0.359
RAMS        7  9  0 348 364  0.229  9.608   13  0.052   13  0.026   12  0.099   12 0.5106   18  1.260   17  0.050   10  0.148

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PANTHERS   12  5  0 376 264  0.185  9.406    4  0.469    4  0.445    6  0.277    4 0.5857   32  0.929   22 -0.175    2  0.730
SAINTS     12  6  0 455 351  0.249 10.416    5  0.444    5  0.418    4  0.333    5 0.5819   19  1.259    9  0.283    4  0.383
BUCCANEERS  4 12  0 288 389  0.163  9.598   25 -0.326   25 -0.332   21 -0.148   24 0.4501   24  1.167   24 -0.318   14  0.022
FALCONS     4 12  0 353 443  0.117  9.327   27 -0.356   27 -0.365   20 -0.142   26 0.4448    5  1.502   12  0.151   28 -0.435

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PACKERS     8  8  1 437 451 -0.169  7.811   18 -0.105   20 -0.126   22 -0.173   20 0.4737    6  1.477   15  0.083   27 -0.428
BEARS       8  8  0 445 478 -0.189  7.233   19 -0.108   18 -0.122   25 -0.233   21 0.4703    2  1.662    6  0.308   32 -0.773
LIONS       7  9  0 395 376 -0.221  6.912   23 -0.257   23 -0.257   17 -0.118   25 0.4475   15  1.307   21 -0.104   20 -0.131
VIKINGS     5 10  1 391 480 -0.159  7.694   26 -0.335   26 -0.346   26 -0.262   27 0.4311    3  1.561   13  0.119   31 -0.643

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
EAGLES     10  7  0 466 408 -0.095  8.051   12  0.099   12  0.070   13  0.097   13 0.5072    8  1.438    7  0.296   19 -0.101
COWBOYS     8  8  0 439 432 -0.094  7.643   16 -0.065   16 -0.073   16 -0.082   17 0.4811    4  1.546   10  0.277   29 -0.441
GIANTS      7  9  0 294 383 -0.064  8.300   20 -0.120   19 -0.125   23 -0.192   22 0.4697   31  1.009   30 -0.553    9  0.170
REDSKINS    3 13  0 334 478 -0.110  8.072   31 -0.543   31 -0.587   32 -0.434   32 0.3860   10  1.349   26 -0.362   30 -0.506

DIVISION    W  L  T   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC WEST   47 23  0 0.671    1  0.627
AFC WEST   40 30  0 0.571    2  0.211
NFC SOUTH  32 35  0 0.478    3  0.173
AFC EAST   35 31  0 0.530    4 -0.130
AFC NORTH  31 34  0 0.477    5 -0.183
NFC EAST   28 37  0 0.431    6 -0.256
NFC NORTH  28 35  2 0.446    7 -0.295
AFC SOUTH  25 41  0 0.379    8 -0.311

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.202 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.029 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:04:43 2024
games through: Sun Feb  2 2014

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