Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PATRIOTS   15  4  0 576 375  0.237 10.529    1  0.641    1  0.609    1  0.568    1 0.6149    6  1.472    1  0.858    6  0.278
SEAHAWKS   14  5  0 477 321  0.133  9.945    2  0.487    2  0.455    2  0.461    2 0.5953   25  1.086    9  0.234    1  0.687
PACKERS    13  5  0 534 397  0.117  9.286    3  0.433    3  0.415    3  0.336    4 0.5765    5  1.512    2  0.686   17 -0.014
BRONCOS    12  5  0 495 378  0.169  9.186    4  0.424    4  0.406    4  0.271    3 0.5906    3  1.538    3  0.660   21 -0.118
COLTS      13  6  0 515 437  0.069  9.532    5  0.354    5  0.340    9  0.156    7 0.5595   10  1.408    7  0.354   19 -0.042
COWBOYS    13  5  0 512 398 -0.045  8.350    6  0.330    6  0.308    5  0.236    5 0.5613    8  1.462    5  0.511   18 -0.040
CARDINALS  11  6  0 326 326  0.058  8.877    7  0.286    7  0.266   19 -0.025    6 0.5609   31  1.002   26 -0.352    5  0.301
LIONS      11  6  0 341 306  0.016  8.479    8  0.260    8  0.239   13  0.057    8 0.5445   32  0.932   24 -0.349    3  0.463
CHARGERS    9  7  0 348 348  0.129  8.770    9  0.200    9  0.177   18 -0.015    9 0.5375   16  1.250   15 -0.035   15  0.004
BENGALS    10  6  1 375 370 -0.006  8.466   10  0.199   10  0.173   16 -0.006   13 0.5308   19  1.186   20 -0.108   11  0.095
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
EAGLES     10  6  0 474 400 -0.014  7.622   11  0.193   11  0.166   10  0.118   12 0.5330    1  1.623    4  0.639   29 -0.403
BILLS       9  7  0 343 289  0.140  8.613   12  0.188   12  0.163    7  0.221   11 0.5342   30  1.034   18 -0.069    2  0.510
RAVENS     11  7  0 470 354 -0.005  8.504   13  0.176   14  0.148    6  0.229   14 0.5267   14  1.264   10  0.229    7  0.230
STEELERS   11  6  0 453 398 -0.102  7.762   14  0.140   13  0.151   12  0.062   15 0.5233    2  1.539    6  0.452   25 -0.328
CHIEFS      9  7  0 353 281  0.116  8.396   15  0.119   15  0.126    8  0.182   10 0.5361   27  1.070   16 -0.064    4  0.429
DOLPHINS    8  8  0 388 373  0.128  8.660   16  0.041   16  0.057   14  0.038   16 0.5135    9  1.414    8  0.245   23 -0.168
49ERS       8  8  0 306 340  0.030  8.355   17  0.002   17  0.014   22 -0.108   17 0.5131   26  1.073   25 -0.351    9  0.135
TEXANS      9  7  0 372 307 -0.138  6.976   18 -0.008   18  0.001   11  0.069   18 0.4951   21  1.151   19 -0.078    8  0.216
PANTHERS    8  9  1 383 421 -0.043  8.853   19 -0.078   19 -0.073   17 -0.015   19 0.4837   15  1.253   14 -0.030   16  0.000
VIKINGS     7  9  0 325 343 -0.057  7.834   20 -0.132   20 -0.134   21 -0.084   21 0.4698   24  1.096   22 -0.299   10  0.131
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAINTS      7  9  0 401 424 -0.127  7.335   21 -0.162   21 -0.172   24 -0.159   22 0.4609    4  1.523   11  0.207   32 -0.526
BROWNS      7  9  0 299 337 -0.145  7.367   22 -0.168   22 -0.179   26 -0.227   23 0.4588   28  1.063   29 -0.481   13  0.027
RAMS        6 10  0 324 354  0.019  8.244   23 -0.175   23 -0.185   15  0.002   20 0.4717   18  1.211   17 -0.067   12  0.072
GIANTS      6 10  0 380 400 -0.081  7.667   24 -0.230   24 -0.252   20 -0.077   24 0.4545   11  1.407   12  0.119   24 -0.274
FALCONS     6 10  0 381 417 -0.149  7.304   25 -0.268   25 -0.283   25 -0.194   26 0.4391    7  1.465   13  0.086   31 -0.474
BEARS       5 11  0 319 442 -0.005  8.357   26 -0.273   26 -0.291   27 -0.274   25 0.4435   12  1.359   21 -0.145   28 -0.403
JETS        4 12  0 283 401  0.078  8.987   27 -0.326   27 -0.344   23 -0.154   27 0.4378   22  1.139   23 -0.316   14  0.008
RAIDERS     3 13  0 253 452  0.114  9.314   28 -0.403   28 -0.414   29 -0.363   28 0.4283   17  1.242   28 -0.392   26 -0.334
REDSKINS    4 12  0 301 438 -0.136  7.902   29 -0.426   29 -0.442   31 -0.423   29 0.4087   13  1.291   27 -0.388   30 -0.459
JAGUARS     3 13  0 249 412 -0.139  7.879   30 -0.540   30 -0.564   30 -0.364   30 0.3887   29  1.045   31 -0.640   20 -0.088
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TITANS      2 14  0 254 438 -0.168  7.804   31 -0.632   31 -0.663   32 -0.527   31 0.3659   20  1.162   32 -0.660   27 -0.394
BUCCANEERS  2 14  0 277 410 -0.173  7.286   32 -0.653   32 -0.686   28 -0.342   32 0.3574   23  1.111   30 -0.538   22 -0.146

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRONCOS    12  5  0 495 378  0.169  9.186    4  0.424    4  0.406    4  0.271    3 0.5906    3  1.538    3  0.660   21 -0.118
CHARGERS    9  7  0 348 348  0.129  8.770    9  0.200    9  0.177   18 -0.015    9 0.5375   16  1.250   15 -0.035   15  0.004
CHIEFS      9  7  0 353 281  0.116  8.396   15  0.119   15  0.126    8  0.182   10 0.5361   27  1.070   16 -0.064    4  0.429
RAIDERS     3 13  0 253 452  0.114  9.314   28 -0.403   28 -0.414   29 -0.363   28 0.4283   17  1.242   28 -0.392   26 -0.334

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COLTS      13  6  0 515 437  0.069  9.532    5  0.354    5  0.340    9  0.156    7 0.5595   10  1.408    7  0.354   19 -0.042
TEXANS      9  7  0 372 307 -0.138  6.976   18 -0.008   18  0.001   11  0.069   18 0.4951   21  1.151   19 -0.078    8  0.216
JAGUARS     3 13  0 249 412 -0.139  7.879   30 -0.540   30 -0.564   30 -0.364   30 0.3887   29  1.045   31 -0.640   20 -0.088
TITANS      2 14  0 254 438 -0.168  7.804   31 -0.632   31 -0.663   32 -0.527   31 0.3659   20  1.162   32 -0.660   27 -0.394

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BENGALS    10  6  1 375 370 -0.006  8.466   10  0.199   10  0.173   16 -0.006   13 0.5308   19  1.186   20 -0.108   11  0.095
RAVENS     11  7  0 470 354 -0.005  8.504   13  0.176   14  0.148    6  0.229   14 0.5267   14  1.264   10  0.229    7  0.230
STEELERS   11  6  0 453 398 -0.102  7.762   14  0.140   13  0.151   12  0.062   15 0.5233    2  1.539    6  0.452   25 -0.328
BROWNS      7  9  0 299 337 -0.145  7.367   22 -0.168   22 -0.179   26 -0.227   23 0.4588   28  1.063   29 -0.481   13  0.027

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PATRIOTS   15  4  0 576 375  0.237 10.529    1  0.641    1  0.609    1  0.568    1 0.6149    6  1.472    1  0.858    6  0.278
BILLS       9  7  0 343 289  0.140  8.613   12  0.188   12  0.163    7  0.221   11 0.5342   30  1.034   18 -0.069    2  0.510
DOLPHINS    8  8  0 388 373  0.128  8.660   16  0.041   16  0.057   14  0.038   16 0.5135    9  1.414    8  0.245   23 -0.168
JETS        4 12  0 283 401  0.078  8.987   27 -0.326   27 -0.344   23 -0.154   27 0.4378   22  1.139   23 -0.316   14  0.008

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SEAHAWKS   14  5  0 477 321  0.133  9.945    2  0.487    2  0.455    2  0.461    2 0.5953   25  1.086    9  0.234    1  0.687
CARDINALS  11  6  0 326 326  0.058  8.877    7  0.286    7  0.266   19 -0.025    6 0.5609   31  1.002   26 -0.352    5  0.301
49ERS       8  8  0 306 340  0.030  8.355   17  0.002   17  0.014   22 -0.108   17 0.5131   26  1.073   25 -0.351    9  0.135
RAMS        6 10  0 324 354  0.019  8.244   23 -0.175   23 -0.185   15  0.002   20 0.4717   18  1.211   17 -0.067   12  0.072

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PANTHERS    8  9  1 383 421 -0.043  8.853   19 -0.078   19 -0.073   17 -0.015   19 0.4837   15  1.253   14 -0.030   16  0.000
SAINTS      7  9  0 401 424 -0.127  7.335   21 -0.162   21 -0.172   24 -0.159   22 0.4609    4  1.523   11  0.207   32 -0.526
FALCONS     6 10  0 381 417 -0.149  7.304   25 -0.268   25 -0.283   25 -0.194   26 0.4391    7  1.465   13  0.086   31 -0.474
BUCCANEERS  2 14  0 277 410 -0.173  7.286   32 -0.653   32 -0.686   28 -0.342   32 0.3574   23  1.111   30 -0.538   22 -0.146

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PACKERS    13  5  0 534 397  0.117  9.286    3  0.433    3  0.415    3  0.336    4 0.5765    5  1.512    2  0.686   17 -0.014
LIONS      11  6  0 341 306  0.016  8.479    8  0.260    8  0.239   13  0.057    8 0.5445   32  0.932   24 -0.349    3  0.463
VIKINGS     7  9  0 325 343 -0.057  7.834   20 -0.132   20 -0.134   21 -0.084   21 0.4698   24  1.096   22 -0.299   10  0.131
BEARS       5 11  0 319 442 -0.005  8.357   26 -0.273   26 -0.291   27 -0.274   25 0.4435   12  1.359   21 -0.145   28 -0.403

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COWBOYS    13  5  0 512 398 -0.045  8.350    6  0.330    6  0.308    5  0.236    5 0.5613    8  1.462    5  0.511   18 -0.040
EAGLES     10  6  0 474 400 -0.014  7.622   11  0.193   11  0.166   10  0.118   12 0.5330    1  1.623    4  0.639   29 -0.403
GIANTS      6 10  0 380 400 -0.081  7.667   24 -0.230   24 -0.252   20 -0.077   24 0.4545   11  1.407   12  0.119   24 -0.274
REDSKINS    4 12  0 301 438 -0.136  7.902   29 -0.426   29 -0.442   31 -0.423   29 0.4087   13  1.291   27 -0.388   30 -0.459

DIVISION    W  L  T   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC EAST   36 31  0 0.537    1  0.266
NFC WEST   39 29  0 0.574    2  0.136
AFC WEST   33 32  0 0.508    3  0.113
AFC NORTH  39 28  1 0.581    4  0.042
NFC NORTH  36 31  0 0.537    5  0.025
NFC EAST   33 33  0 0.500    6 -0.065
AFC SOUTH  27 40  0 0.403    7 -0.302
NFC SOUTH  23 42  1 0.356    8 -0.346

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.176 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.023 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:48:33 2020
games through: Sun Feb  1 2015

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