Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PANTHERS   17  2 590 371 -0.045  8.695    1  0.747    1  0.705    3  0.459    1 0.6164    6  1.422    1  0.673   10  0.245
BRONCOS    15  4 422 340  0.244 11.343    2  0.708    2  0.667    6  0.379    2 0.6153   28  1.032   14  0.084    1  0.675
CARDINALS  14  4 530 382  0.192 10.073    3  0.640    3  0.602    7  0.339    3 0.6086    4  1.493    2  0.656   15  0.021
BENGALS    12  5 435 297  0.214  9.615    4  0.502    4  0.464    4  0.400    4 0.5752   23  1.193    8  0.303    5  0.497
CHIEFS     12  6 455 314  0.218 10.324    5  0.441    5  0.404    2  0.521    5 0.5709   24  1.190    6  0.420    3  0.622
PATRIOTS   13  5 510 355  0.003  8.800    6  0.397    6  0.360    8  0.290    9 0.5599    9  1.368    5  0.429   12  0.152
STEELERS   11  7 457 358  0.277 10.627    7  0.376    8  0.347    5  0.385   10 0.5589   15  1.311    4  0.443    6  0.326
SEAHAWKS   11  7 457 317  0.263 10.415    8  0.364    9  0.323    1  0.548    8 0.5652   21  1.210    3  0.473    2  0.623
VIKINGS    11  6 374 312  0.182  9.811    9  0.349    7  0.356    9  0.272    6 0.5688   27  1.083   15  0.038    4  0.506
PACKERS    11  7 423 367  0.219 10.569   10  0.319   10  0.320   10  0.223    7 0.5665   18  1.239   10  0.186    9  0.260
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JETS       10  6 387 314 -0.196  6.961   11  0.076   11  0.073   11  0.040   12 0.5044   25  1.169   21 -0.087   11  0.168
RAMS        7  9 280 330  0.112  9.202   12 -0.013   12 -0.009   17 -0.081   13 0.4991   31  0.961   29 -0.457    7  0.296
RAIDERS     7  9 359 399  0.142  9.341   13 -0.019   13 -0.016   14 -0.022   14 0.4946    7  1.419    9  0.189   24 -0.233
LIONS       7  9 358 400  0.128  9.258   14 -0.024   14 -0.027   12  0.008   11 0.5055    8  1.378   12  0.160   18 -0.145
TEXANS      9  8 339 343 -0.137  7.992   15 -0.032   15 -0.039   15 -0.035   15 0.4915   29  1.027   25 -0.336    8  0.266
BILLS       8  8 379 359 -0.085  7.761   16 -0.056   16 -0.074   13  0.007   18 0.4804   12  1.326   13  0.087   17 -0.072
REDSKINS    9  8 406 414 -0.177  7.812   17 -0.059   17 -0.076   18 -0.091   16 0.4879   10  1.360   16  0.036   23 -0.218
COLTS       8  8 333 408 -0.218  7.421   18 -0.103   18 -0.119   27 -0.304   19 0.4803   16  1.310   23 -0.246   26 -0.362
BEARS       6 10 335 397  0.131  9.321   19 -0.112   19 -0.122   16 -0.075   17 0.4868   13  1.325   17  0.004   20 -0.153
FALCONS     8  8 339 345 -0.299  6.663   20 -0.179   20 -0.196   23 -0.247   20 0.4759   26  1.119   28 -0.436   16 -0.057
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
EAGLES      7  9 377 430 -0.162  7.598   21 -0.195   21 -0.204   22 -0.240   21 0.4637    5  1.426   19 -0.021   28 -0.460
49ERS       5 11 238 387  0.117  9.611   22 -0.229   22 -0.233   28 -0.312   23 0.4615   32  0.957   32 -0.694   13  0.069
RAVENS      5 11 328 401  0.094  9.205   23 -0.247   23 -0.260   19 -0.140   24 0.4490   14  1.317   20 -0.072   22 -0.207
SAINTS      7  9 408 476 -0.265  7.094   24 -0.258   24 -0.277   24 -0.285   22 0.4620    2  1.584   11  0.171   32 -0.741
DOLPHINS    6 10 310 389 -0.196  7.453   25 -0.309   25 -0.326   25 -0.298   28 0.4289   22  1.197   27 -0.390   21 -0.206
GIANTS      6 10 420 442 -0.197  7.251   26 -0.311   26 -0.347   21 -0.182   25 0.4405    1  1.616    7  0.324   30 -0.688
CHARGERS    4 12 320 398  0.112  9.352   27 -0.347   27 -0.379   20 -0.145   26 0.4367   17  1.270   22 -0.141   19 -0.149
BUCCANEERS  6 10 342 417 -0.302  6.865   28 -0.365   28 -0.404   30 -0.351   27 0.4363   11  1.328   24 -0.268   27 -0.434
BROWNS      3 13 278 432  0.095  9.604   29 -0.452   29 -0.488   26 -0.301   29 0.4140   19  1.230   26 -0.350   25 -0.252
JAGUARS     5 11 376 448 -0.297  6.882   30 -0.464   31 -0.506   31 -0.354   31 0.4086    3  1.515   18 -0.002   31 -0.705
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COWBOYS     4 12 275 374 -0.121  7.968   31 -0.467   30 -0.506   29 -0.325   30 0.4090   30  0.969   31 -0.693   14  0.043
TITANS      3 13 299 423 -0.303  7.019   32 -0.677   32 -0.723   32 -0.553   32 0.3728   20  1.216   30 -0.621   29 -0.486

AFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRONCOS    15  4 422 340  0.244 11.343    2  0.708    2  0.667    6  0.379    2 0.6153   28  1.032   14  0.084    1  0.675
CHIEFS     12  6 455 314  0.218 10.324    5  0.441    5  0.404    2  0.521    5 0.5709   24  1.190    6  0.420    3  0.622
RAIDERS     7  9 359 399  0.142  9.341   13 -0.019   13 -0.016   14 -0.022   14 0.4946    7  1.419    9  0.189   24 -0.233
CHARGERS    4 12 320 398  0.112  9.352   27 -0.347   27 -0.379   20 -0.145   26 0.4367   17  1.270   22 -0.141   19 -0.149

AFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEXANS      9  8 339 343 -0.137  7.992   15 -0.032   15 -0.039   15 -0.035   15 0.4915   29  1.027   25 -0.336    8  0.266
COLTS       8  8 333 408 -0.218  7.421   18 -0.103   18 -0.119   27 -0.304   19 0.4803   16  1.310   23 -0.246   26 -0.362
JAGUARS     5 11 376 448 -0.297  6.882   30 -0.464   31 -0.506   31 -0.354   31 0.4086    3  1.515   18 -0.002   31 -0.705
TITANS      3 13 299 423 -0.303  7.019   32 -0.677   32 -0.723   32 -0.553   32 0.3728   20  1.216   30 -0.621   29 -0.486

AFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BENGALS    12  5 435 297  0.214  9.615    4  0.502    4  0.464    4  0.400    4 0.5752   23  1.193    8  0.303    5  0.497
STEELERS   11  7 457 358  0.277 10.627    7  0.376    8  0.347    5  0.385   10 0.5589   15  1.311    4  0.443    6  0.326
RAVENS      5 11 328 401  0.094  9.205   23 -0.247   23 -0.260   19 -0.140   24 0.4490   14  1.317   20 -0.072   22 -0.207
BROWNS      3 13 278 432  0.095  9.604   29 -0.452   29 -0.488   26 -0.301   29 0.4140   19  1.230   26 -0.350   25 -0.252

AFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PATRIOTS   13  5 510 355  0.003  8.800    6  0.397    6  0.360    8  0.290    9 0.5599    9  1.368    5  0.429   12  0.152
JETS       10  6 387 314 -0.196  6.961   11  0.076   11  0.073   11  0.040   12 0.5044   25  1.169   21 -0.087   11  0.168
BILLS       8  8 379 359 -0.085  7.761   16 -0.056   16 -0.074   13  0.007   18 0.4804   12  1.326   13  0.087   17 -0.072
DOLPHINS    6 10 310 389 -0.196  7.453   25 -0.309   25 -0.326   25 -0.298   28 0.4289   22  1.197   27 -0.390   21 -0.206

NFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CARDINALS  14  4 530 382  0.192 10.073    3  0.640    3  0.602    7  0.339    3 0.6086    4  1.493    2  0.656   15  0.021
SEAHAWKS   11  7 457 317  0.263 10.415    8  0.364    9  0.323    1  0.548    8 0.5652   21  1.210    3  0.473    2  0.623
RAMS        7  9 280 330  0.112  9.202   12 -0.013   12 -0.009   17 -0.081   13 0.4991   31  0.961   29 -0.457    7  0.296
49ERS       5 11 238 387  0.117  9.611   22 -0.229   22 -0.233   28 -0.312   23 0.4615   32  0.957   32 -0.694   13  0.069

NFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PANTHERS   17  2 590 371 -0.045  8.695    1  0.747    1  0.705    3  0.459    1 0.6164    6  1.422    1  0.673   10  0.245
FALCONS     8  8 339 345 -0.299  6.663   20 -0.179   20 -0.196   23 -0.247   20 0.4759   26  1.119   28 -0.436   16 -0.057
SAINTS      7  9 408 476 -0.265  7.094   24 -0.258   24 -0.277   24 -0.285   22 0.4620    2  1.584   11  0.171   32 -0.741
BUCCANEERS  6 10 342 417 -0.302  6.865   28 -0.365   28 -0.404   30 -0.351   27 0.4363   11  1.328   24 -0.268   27 -0.434

NFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
VIKINGS    11  6 374 312  0.182  9.811    9  0.349    7  0.356    9  0.272    6 0.5688   27  1.083   15  0.038    4  0.506
PACKERS    11  7 423 367  0.219 10.569   10  0.319   10  0.320   10  0.223    7 0.5665   18  1.239   10  0.186    9  0.260
LIONS       7  9 358 400  0.128  9.258   14 -0.024   14 -0.027   12  0.008   11 0.5055    8  1.378   12  0.160   18 -0.145
BEARS       6 10 335 397  0.131  9.321   19 -0.112   19 -0.122   16 -0.075   17 0.4868   13  1.325   17  0.004   20 -0.153

NFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
REDSKINS    9  8 406 414 -0.177  7.812   17 -0.059   17 -0.076   18 -0.091   16 0.4879   10  1.360   16  0.036   23 -0.218
EAGLES      7  9 377 430 -0.162  7.598   21 -0.195   21 -0.204   22 -0.240   21 0.4637    5  1.426   19 -0.021   28 -0.460
GIANTS      6 10 420 442 -0.197  7.251   26 -0.311   26 -0.347   21 -0.182   25 0.4405    1  1.616    7  0.324   30 -0.688
COWBOYS     4 12 275 374 -0.121  7.968   31 -0.467   30 -0.506   29 -0.325   30 0.4090   30  0.969   31 -0.693   14  0.043

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC WEST   38 31 0.551    1  0.262
NFC WEST   37 31 0.544    2  0.226
NFC NORTH  35 32 0.522    3  0.169
AFC NORTH  31 36 0.463    4  0.158
AFC EAST   37 29 0.561    5  0.047
NFC SOUTH  38 29 0.567    6 -0.228
NFC EAST   26 39 0.400    7 -0.334
AFC SOUTH  25 40 0.385    8 -0.509

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.129 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.017 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:48:49 2020
games through: Sun Feb  7 2016

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