Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PANTHERS   17  2 590 371 -0.045  8.695    1  1.422    1  0.705    3  0.459    1 0.6164  1.431  0.680  0.238  0.000
BRONCOS    15  4 422 340  0.244 11.343    2  1.382    2  0.667    6  0.379    2 0.6153  1.030  0.076  0.683  0.000
CARDINALS  14  4 530 382  0.192 10.073    3  1.313    3  0.602    7  0.339    3 0.6086  1.500  0.661  0.016  0.000
BENGALS    12  5 435 297  0.214  9.615    4  1.175    4  0.464    4  0.400    4 0.5752  1.201  0.307  0.493  0.000
CHIEFS     12  6 455 314  0.218 10.324    5  1.113    5  0.404    2  0.521    5 0.5709  1.199  0.426  0.616  0.000
PATRIOTS   13  5 510 355  0.003  8.800    6  1.068    6  0.360    8  0.290    9 0.5599  1.377  0.435  0.146  0.000
STEELERS   11  7 457 358  0.277 10.627    7  1.047    8  0.347    5  0.385   10 0.5589  1.317  0.445  0.324  0.000
SEAHAWKS   11  7 457 317  0.263 10.415    8  1.034    9  0.323    1  0.548    8 0.5652  1.215  0.473  0.623  0.000
VIKINGS    11  6 374 312  0.182  9.811    9  1.019    7  0.356    9  0.272    6 0.5688  1.088  0.038  0.506  0.000
PACKERS    11  7 423 367  0.219 10.569   10  0.989   10  0.320   10  0.223    7 0.5665  1.242  0.183  0.262  0.000
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
JETS       10  6 387 314 -0.196  6.961   11  0.756   11  0.073   11  0.040   12 0.5044  1.172 -0.090  0.170  0.000
RAMS        7  9 280 330  0.112  9.202   12  0.666   12 -0.009   17 -0.081   13 0.4991  0.963 -0.461  0.300  0.000
RAIDERS     7  9 359 399  0.142  9.341   13  0.659   13 -0.016   14 -0.022   14 0.4946  1.420  0.184 -0.228  0.000
LIONS       7  9 358 400  0.128  9.258   14  0.655   14 -0.027   12  0.008   11 0.5055  1.384  0.161 -0.146  0.000
TEXANS      9  8 339 343 -0.137  7.992   15  0.647   15 -0.039   15 -0.035   15 0.4915  1.034 -0.334  0.264  0.000
BILLS       8  8 379 359 -0.085  7.761   16  0.622   16 -0.074   13  0.007   18 0.4804  1.327  0.083 -0.068  0.000
REDSKINS    9  8 406 414 -0.177  7.812   17  0.619   17 -0.076   18 -0.091   16 0.4879  1.363  0.033 -0.216  0.000
COLTS       8  8 333 408 -0.218  7.421   18  0.574   18 -0.119   27 -0.304   19 0.4803  1.313 -0.248 -0.360  0.000
BEARS       6 10 335 397  0.131  9.321   19  0.566   19 -0.122   16 -0.075   17 0.4868  1.327  0.000 -0.149  0.000
FALCONS     8  8 339 345 -0.299  6.663   20  0.497   20 -0.196   23 -0.247   20 0.4759  1.119 -0.442 -0.051  0.000
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
EAGLES      7  9 377 430 -0.162  7.598   21  0.481   21 -0.204   22 -0.240   21 0.4637  1.427 -0.025 -0.455  0.000
49ERS       5 11 238 387  0.117  9.611   22  0.446   22 -0.233   28 -0.312   23 0.4615  0.970 -0.686  0.061  0.000
RAVENS      5 11 328 401  0.094  9.205   23  0.428   23 -0.260   19 -0.140   24 0.4490  1.318 -0.078 -0.202  0.000
SAINTS      7  9 408 476 -0.265  7.094   24  0.416   24 -0.277   24 -0.285   22 0.4620  1.585  0.167 -0.736  0.000
DOLPHINS    6 10 310 389 -0.196  7.453   25  0.364   25 -0.326   25 -0.298   28 0.4289  1.201 -0.391 -0.206  0.000
GIANTS      6 10 420 442 -0.197  7.251   26  0.362   26 -0.347   21 -0.182   25 0.4405  1.616  0.317 -0.682  0.000
CHARGERS    4 12 320 398  0.112  9.352   27  0.327   27 -0.379   20 -0.145   26 0.4367  1.276 -0.139 -0.150  0.000
BUCCANEERS  6 10 342 417 -0.302  6.865   28  0.307   28 -0.404   30 -0.351   27 0.4363  1.331 -0.270 -0.431  0.000
BROWNS      3 13 278 432  0.095  9.604   29  0.220   29 -0.488   26 -0.301   29 0.4140  1.242 -0.340 -0.262  0.000
JAGUARS     5 11 376 448 -0.297  6.882   30  0.207   31 -0.506   31 -0.354   31 0.4086  1.518 -0.005 -0.703  0.000
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
COWBOYS     4 12 275 374 -0.121  7.968   31  0.205   30 -0.506   29 -0.325   30 0.4090  0.977 -0.690  0.040  0.000
TITANS      3 13 299 423 -0.303  7.019   32  0.000   32 -0.723   32 -0.553   32 0.3728  1.225 -0.614 -0.492  0.000

AFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BRONCOS    15  4 422 340  0.244 11.343    2  1.382    2  0.667    6  0.379    2 0.6153  1.030  0.076  0.683  0.000
CHIEFS     12  6 455 314  0.218 10.324    5  1.113    5  0.404    2  0.521    5 0.5709  1.199  0.426  0.616  0.000
RAIDERS     7  9 359 399  0.142  9.341   13  0.659   13 -0.016   14 -0.022   14 0.4946  1.420  0.184 -0.228  0.000
CHARGERS    4 12 320 398  0.112  9.352   27  0.327   27 -0.379   20 -0.145   26 0.4367  1.276 -0.139 -0.150  0.000

AFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TEXANS      9  8 339 343 -0.137  7.992   15  0.647   15 -0.039   15 -0.035   15 0.4915  1.034 -0.334  0.264  0.000
COLTS       8  8 333 408 -0.218  7.421   18  0.574   18 -0.119   27 -0.304   19 0.4803  1.313 -0.248 -0.360  0.000
JAGUARS     5 11 376 448 -0.297  6.882   30  0.207   31 -0.506   31 -0.354   31 0.4086  1.518 -0.005 -0.703  0.000
TITANS      3 13 299 423 -0.303  7.019   32  0.000   32 -0.723   32 -0.553   32 0.3728  1.225 -0.614 -0.492  0.000

AFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BENGALS    12  5 435 297  0.214  9.615    4  1.175    4  0.464    4  0.400    4 0.5752  1.201  0.307  0.493  0.000
STEELERS   11  7 457 358  0.277 10.627    7  1.047    8  0.347    5  0.385   10 0.5589  1.317  0.445  0.324  0.000
RAVENS      5 11 328 401  0.094  9.205   23  0.428   23 -0.260   19 -0.140   24 0.4490  1.318 -0.078 -0.202  0.000
BROWNS      3 13 278 432  0.095  9.604   29  0.220   29 -0.488   26 -0.301   29 0.4140  1.242 -0.340 -0.262  0.000

AFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PATRIOTS   13  5 510 355  0.003  8.800    6  1.068    6  0.360    8  0.290    9 0.5599  1.377  0.435  0.146  0.000
JETS       10  6 387 314 -0.196  6.961   11  0.756   11  0.073   11  0.040   12 0.5044  1.172 -0.090  0.170  0.000
BILLS       8  8 379 359 -0.085  7.761   16  0.622   16 -0.074   13  0.007   18 0.4804  1.327  0.083 -0.068  0.000
DOLPHINS    6 10 310 389 -0.196  7.453   25  0.364   25 -0.326   25 -0.298   28 0.4289  1.201 -0.391 -0.206  0.000

NFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CARDINALS  14  4 530 382  0.192 10.073    3  1.313    3  0.602    7  0.339    3 0.6086  1.500  0.661  0.016  0.000
SEAHAWKS   11  7 457 317  0.263 10.415    8  1.034    9  0.323    1  0.548    8 0.5652  1.215  0.473  0.623  0.000
RAMS        7  9 280 330  0.112  9.202   12  0.666   12 -0.009   17 -0.081   13 0.4991  0.963 -0.461  0.300  0.000
49ERS       5 11 238 387  0.117  9.611   22  0.446   22 -0.233   28 -0.312   23 0.4615  0.970 -0.686  0.061  0.000

NFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PANTHERS   17  2 590 371 -0.045  8.695    1  1.422    1  0.705    3  0.459    1 0.6164  1.431  0.680  0.238  0.000
FALCONS     8  8 339 345 -0.299  6.663   20  0.497   20 -0.196   23 -0.247   20 0.4759  1.119 -0.442 -0.051  0.000
SAINTS      7  9 408 476 -0.265  7.094   24  0.416   24 -0.277   24 -0.285   22 0.4620  1.585  0.167 -0.736  0.000
BUCCANEERS  6 10 342 417 -0.302  6.865   28  0.307   28 -0.404   30 -0.351   27 0.4363  1.331 -0.270 -0.431  0.000

NFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
VIKINGS    11  6 374 312  0.182  9.811    9  1.019    7  0.356    9  0.272    6 0.5688  1.088  0.038  0.506  0.000
PACKERS    11  7 423 367  0.219 10.569   10  0.989   10  0.320   10  0.223    7 0.5665  1.242  0.183  0.262  0.000
LIONS       7  9 358 400  0.128  9.258   14  0.655   14 -0.027   12  0.008   11 0.5055  1.384  0.161 -0.146  0.000
BEARS       6 10 335 397  0.131  9.321   19  0.566   19 -0.122   16 -0.075   17 0.4868  1.327  0.000 -0.149  0.000

NFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
REDSKINS    9  8 406 414 -0.177  7.812   17  0.619   17 -0.076   18 -0.091   16 0.4879  1.363  0.033 -0.216  0.000
EAGLES      7  9 377 430 -0.162  7.598   21  0.481   21 -0.204   22 -0.240   21 0.4637  1.427 -0.025 -0.455  0.000
GIANTS      6 10 420 442 -0.197  7.251   26  0.362   26 -0.347   21 -0.182   25 0.4405  1.616  0.317 -0.682  0.000
COWBOYS     4 12 275 374 -0.121  7.968   31  0.205   30 -0.506   29 -0.325   30 0.4090  0.977 -0.690  0.040  0.000

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC WEST   38 31 0.551    1  0.262
NFC WEST   37 31 0.544    2  0.226
NFC NORTH  35 32 0.522    3  0.169
AFC NORTH  31 36 0.463    4  0.158
AFC EAST   37 29 0.561    5  0.047
NFC SOUTH  38 29 0.567    6 -0.228
NFC EAST   26 39 0.400    7 -0.334
AFC SOUTH  25 40 0.385    8 -0.509

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.129 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.017 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Apr 16 10:27:16 2016
games through: Sun Feb  7 2016

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