Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PATRIOTS   17  2  0 545 311 -0.014  8.405    1  0.541    1  0.511    1  0.411    1 0.6170   17  1.249    4  0.377    2  0.445
COWBOYS    13  4  0 452 340  0.037  8.296    2  0.383    2  0.343    5  0.155    2 0.5823   12  1.339    9  0.242   13  0.068
STEELERS   13  6  0 464 391  0.104  9.830    3  0.326    4  0.291    6  0.147    5 0.5708   15  1.304   12  0.187   12  0.107
FALCONS    13  6  0 648 481  0.109  9.716    4  0.316    6  0.280    2  0.330    6 0.5609    2  1.716    1  0.987   29 -0.327
CHIEFS     12  5  0 405 329  0.070  8.566    5  0.314    5  0.281    3  0.175    3 0.5772   25  1.124   16 -0.019    5  0.369
RAIDERS    12  5  0 430 412  0.080  8.890    6  0.305    3  0.296   18  0.002    4 0.5757    8  1.428   10  0.215   22 -0.211
PACKERS    12  7  0 525 476  0.082  9.747    7  0.223    8  0.209    4  0.164    7 0.5544    3  1.588    3  0.617   26 -0.289
GIANTS     11  6  0 323 322  0.056  8.707    8  0.211    7  0.214   15  0.032    8 0.5503   31  0.948   27 -0.369    3  0.434
SEAHAWKS   11  6  1 400 334 -0.029  8.408    9  0.165    9  0.163    7  0.098   11 0.5265   28  1.009   24 -0.234    4  0.429
BRONCOS     9  7  0 333 297  0.123  8.538   10  0.126   10  0.123    9  0.076    9 0.5375   30  0.958   25 -0.314    1  0.466
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCCANEERS  9  7  0 354 369  0.045  8.190   11  0.084   11  0.091   14  0.033   13 0.5142   21  1.188   18 -0.080   11  0.146
DOLPHINS   10  7  0 375 410 -0.081  8.128   12  0.082   13  0.088   26 -0.123   12 0.5162   14  1.311   17 -0.073   21 -0.172
TEXANS     10  8  0 322 376  0.020  9.223   13  0.082   12  0.089   24 -0.076   10 0.5307   29  0.962   30 -0.461    6  0.310
REDSKINS    8  7  1 396 383  0.080  8.360   14  0.066   14  0.073   13  0.034   14 0.5138    6  1.479    6  0.321   25 -0.253
TITANS      9  7  0 381 378 -0.114  7.206   15  0.021   15  0.022   21 -0.040   15 0.5118   10  1.406   13  0.141   24 -0.221
LIONS       9  8  0 352 384 -0.045  8.259   16  0.008   16  0.018   25 -0.120   16 0.5057   19  1.209   23 -0.206   15 -0.034
RAVENS      8  8  0 343 321  0.001  7.797   17 -0.023   17 -0.015   12  0.047   18 0.4992   22  1.147   19 -0.119    9  0.212
VIKINGS     8  8  0 327 307 -0.027  7.666   18 -0.031   18 -0.025   19 -0.017   19 0.4961   27  1.014   26 -0.342    7  0.309
EAGLES      7  9  0 367 331  0.123  8.502   19 -0.032   19 -0.033    8  0.086   20 0.4948   18  1.226   15  0.022   10  0.149
COLTS       8  8  0 411 392 -0.079  7.364   20 -0.041   20 -0.045   17  0.024   17 0.4999    4  1.510    5  0.358   27 -0.311
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAINTS      7  9  0 469 454  0.044  8.141   21 -0.063   21 -0.067   16  0.026   21 0.4812    1  1.718    2  0.687   32 -0.634
CARDINALS   7  8  1 418 362 -0.081  7.195   22 -0.096   22 -0.102   10  0.069   23 0.4679    9  1.411    8  0.257   18 -0.120
BENGALS     6  9  1 325 315  0.023  7.974   23 -0.115   23 -0.121   11  0.057   22 0.4762   26  1.118   21 -0.145    8  0.259
PANTHERS    6 10  0 369 402  0.058  8.358   24 -0.127   24 -0.134   20 -0.037   25 0.4601   13  1.327   14  0.034   17 -0.109
BILLS       7  9  0 399 378 -0.107  7.177   25 -0.129   25 -0.137   22 -0.059   24 0.4663    7  1.455   11  0.193   28 -0.311
CHARGERS    5 11  0 410 423  0.019  8.038   26 -0.213   26 -0.226   23 -0.064   26 0.4517    5  1.510    7  0.269   30 -0.398
JETS        5 11  0 275 409 -0.106  7.889   27 -0.252   27 -0.268   29 -0.292   27 0.4346   24  1.142   31 -0.464   19 -0.120
RAMS        4 12  0 224 394 -0.132  7.745   28 -0.326   28 -0.350   32 -0.394   28 0.4055   32  0.924   32 -0.823   14  0.034
JAGUARS     3 13  0 318 400 -0.042  7.823   29 -0.384   29 -0.413   27 -0.140   29 0.4049   16  1.273   20 -0.142   20 -0.138
BEARS       3 13  0 279 399 -0.070  7.861   30 -0.401   30 -0.421   28 -0.238   30 0.4006   23  1.143   29 -0.407   16 -0.068
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
49ERS       2 14  0 309 480 -0.134  7.737   31 -0.501   31 -0.526   31 -0.314   32 0.3644   11  1.387   22 -0.159   31 -0.469
BROWNS      1 15  0 264 452  0.015  8.580   32 -0.519   32 -0.544   30 -0.307   31 0.3683   20  1.208   28 -0.394   23 -0.220

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHIEFS     12  5  0 405 329  0.070  8.566    5  0.314    5  0.281    3  0.175    3 0.5772   25  1.124   16 -0.019    5  0.369
RAIDERS    12  5  0 430 412  0.080  8.890    6  0.305    3  0.296   18  0.002    4 0.5757    8  1.428   10  0.215   22 -0.211
BRONCOS     9  7  0 333 297  0.123  8.538   10  0.126   10  0.123    9  0.076    9 0.5375   30  0.958   25 -0.314    1  0.466
CHARGERS    5 11  0 410 423  0.019  8.038   26 -0.213   26 -0.226   23 -0.064   26 0.4517    5  1.510    7  0.269   30 -0.398

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEXANS     10  8  0 322 376  0.020  9.223   13  0.082   12  0.089   24 -0.076   10 0.5307   29  0.962   30 -0.461    6  0.310
TITANS      9  7  0 381 378 -0.114  7.206   15  0.021   15  0.022   21 -0.040   15 0.5118   10  1.406   13  0.141   24 -0.221
COLTS       8  8  0 411 392 -0.079  7.364   20 -0.041   20 -0.045   17  0.024   17 0.4999    4  1.510    5  0.358   27 -0.311
JAGUARS     3 13  0 318 400 -0.042  7.823   29 -0.384   29 -0.413   27 -0.140   29 0.4049   16  1.273   20 -0.142   20 -0.138

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
STEELERS   13  6  0 464 391  0.104  9.830    3  0.326    4  0.291    6  0.147    5 0.5708   15  1.304   12  0.187   12  0.107
RAVENS      8  8  0 343 321  0.001  7.797   17 -0.023   17 -0.015   12  0.047   18 0.4992   22  1.147   19 -0.119    9  0.212
BENGALS     6  9  1 325 315  0.023  7.974   23 -0.115   23 -0.121   11  0.057   22 0.4762   26  1.118   21 -0.145    8  0.259
BROWNS      1 15  0 264 452  0.015  8.580   32 -0.519   32 -0.544   30 -0.307   31 0.3683   20  1.208   28 -0.394   23 -0.220

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PATRIOTS   17  2  0 545 311 -0.014  8.405    1  0.541    1  0.511    1  0.411    1 0.6170   17  1.249    4  0.377    2  0.445
DOLPHINS   10  7  0 375 410 -0.081  8.128   12  0.082   13  0.088   26 -0.123   12 0.5162   14  1.311   17 -0.073   21 -0.172
BILLS       7  9  0 399 378 -0.107  7.177   25 -0.129   25 -0.137   22 -0.059   24 0.4663    7  1.455   11  0.193   28 -0.311
JETS        5 11  0 275 409 -0.106  7.889   27 -0.252   27 -0.268   29 -0.292   27 0.4346   24  1.142   31 -0.464   19 -0.120

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SEAHAWKS   11  6  1 400 334 -0.029  8.408    9  0.165    9  0.163    7  0.098   11 0.5265   28  1.009   24 -0.234    4  0.429
CARDINALS   7  8  1 418 362 -0.081  7.195   22 -0.096   22 -0.102   10  0.069   23 0.4679    9  1.411    8  0.257   18 -0.120
RAMS        4 12  0 224 394 -0.132  7.745   28 -0.326   28 -0.350   32 -0.394   28 0.4055   32  0.924   32 -0.823   14  0.034
49ERS       2 14  0 309 480 -0.134  7.737   31 -0.501   31 -0.526   31 -0.314   32 0.3644   11  1.387   22 -0.159   31 -0.469

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
FALCONS    13  6  0 648 481  0.109  9.716    4  0.316    6  0.280    2  0.330    6 0.5609    2  1.716    1  0.987   29 -0.327
BUCCANEERS  9  7  0 354 369  0.045  8.190   11  0.084   11  0.091   14  0.033   13 0.5142   21  1.188   18 -0.080   11  0.146
SAINTS      7  9  0 469 454  0.044  8.141   21 -0.063   21 -0.067   16  0.026   21 0.4812    1  1.718    2  0.687   32 -0.634
PANTHERS    6 10  0 369 402  0.058  8.358   24 -0.127   24 -0.134   20 -0.037   25 0.4601   13  1.327   14  0.034   17 -0.109

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PACKERS    12  7  0 525 476  0.082  9.747    7  0.223    8  0.209    4  0.164    7 0.5544    3  1.588    3  0.617   26 -0.289
LIONS       9  8  0 352 384 -0.045  8.259   16  0.008   16  0.018   25 -0.120   16 0.5057   19  1.209   23 -0.206   15 -0.034
VIKINGS     8  8  0 327 307 -0.027  7.666   18 -0.031   18 -0.025   19 -0.017   19 0.4961   27  1.014   26 -0.342    7  0.309
BEARS       3 13  0 279 399 -0.070  7.861   30 -0.401   30 -0.421   28 -0.238   30 0.4006   23  1.143   29 -0.407   16 -0.068

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COWBOYS    13  4  0 452 340  0.037  8.296    2  0.383    2  0.343    5  0.155    2 0.5823   12  1.339    9  0.242   13  0.068
GIANTS     11  6  0 323 322  0.056  8.707    8  0.211    7  0.214   15  0.032    8 0.5503   31  0.948   27 -0.369    3  0.434
REDSKINS    8  7  1 396 383  0.080  8.360   14  0.066   14  0.073   13  0.034   14 0.5138    6  1.479    6  0.321   25 -0.253
EAGLES      7  9  0 367 331  0.123  8.502   19 -0.032   19 -0.033    8  0.086   20 0.4948   18  1.226   15  0.022   10  0.149

DIVISION    W  L  T   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC EAST   39 26  1 0.598    1  0.237
AFC WEST   38 28  0 0.576    2  0.187
NFC SOUTH  35 32  0 0.522    3  0.154
AFC EAST   39 29  0 0.574    4 -0.051
AFC NORTH  28 38  1 0.425    5 -0.053
NFC NORTH  32 36  0 0.471    6 -0.097
AFC SOUTH  30 36  0 0.455    7 -0.179
NFC WEST   24 40  2 0.379    8 -0.302

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.203 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.025 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:49:05 2020
games through: Sun Feb  5 2017

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