Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
EAGLES     16  3 551 345  0.127  9.788    1  0.689    1  0.648    1  0.502    1 0.6170    8  1.395    1  0.727    6  0.276
VIKINGS    14  4 418 314  0.184  9.961    2  0.602    2  0.564    3  0.337    2 0.6064   26  1.062   11  0.127    1  0.546
PATRIOTS   15  4 550 371  0.027  9.189    3  0.534    3  0.486    2  0.428    3 0.5961    4  1.420    2  0.689    7  0.167
STEELERS   13  4 448 353 -0.013  8.180    4  0.454    4  0.419    9  0.177    7 0.5613    7  1.401    6  0.412   16 -0.058
SAINTS     12  6 503 381  0.199 10.061    5  0.413    5  0.375    4  0.336    4 0.5880    3  1.459    3  0.655   14  0.018
PANTHERS   11  6 389 358  0.204  9.755    6  0.353    6  0.358   11  0.147    5 0.5814   15  1.239   10  0.159    8  0.134
FALCONS    11  7 389 343  0.226 10.452    7  0.302    7  0.296    6  0.265    6 0.5722   23  1.097   12  0.098    3  0.432
RAMS       11  6 491 355  0.074  8.605    8  0.261    8  0.248    7  0.241    8 0.5507    2  1.479    4  0.589   18 -0.107
JAGUARS    12  7 492 337 -0.057  8.607    9  0.165    9  0.147    5  0.278   11 0.5208   18  1.210    8  0.253    5  0.303
LIONS       9  7 410 376  0.035  8.182   10  0.126   10  0.108   13  0.085    9 0.5246    1  1.541    5  0.525   31 -0.355
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COWBOYS     9  7 354 332  0.016  8.127   11  0.119   11  0.099   12  0.091   10 0.5218   17  1.226   13  0.087   11  0.095
SEAHAWKS    9  7 366 332 -0.016  7.893   12  0.109   12  0.080   14  0.061   12 0.5159   12  1.248   14  0.087   12  0.036
CHIEFS     10  7 436 361 -0.091  7.818   13  0.104   13  0.073   15  0.043   13 0.5155    6  1.406    7  0.285   25 -0.198
TITANS     10  8 370 412 -0.126  8.513   14  0.054   15  0.028   21 -0.117   17 0.4940   16  1.238   19 -0.105   19 -0.129
CHARGERS    9  7 355 272 -0.065  7.365   15  0.048   16  0.021    8  0.203   15 0.5020   30  1.043   18 -0.029    2  0.435
BILLS       9  8 305 369 -0.059  8.592   16  0.035   14  0.034   22 -0.193   14 0.5109   29  1.047   28 -0.420   13  0.034
CARDINALS   8  8 295 361 -0.034  8.184   17 -0.004   17 -0.009   20 -0.091   18 0.4931   28  1.049   24 -0.316    9  0.134
RAVENS      9  7 395 303 -0.135  6.886   18 -0.014   18 -0.024   10  0.152   20 0.4894   13  1.247    9  0.176   10  0.129
PACKERS     7  9 320 384  0.092  8.998   19 -0.057   19 -0.036   24 -0.220   16 0.4952   14  1.244   21 -0.201   28 -0.239
REDSKINS    7  9 342 388  0.074  8.714   20 -0.072   20 -0.054   19 -0.086   19 0.4918    9  1.327   16  0.045   26 -0.217
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BENGALS     7  9 290 349 -0.172  7.504   21 -0.187   21 -0.185   23 -0.218   26 0.4531   24  1.092   27 -0.392   15 -0.045
DOLPHINS    6 10 281 393 -0.034  8.445   22 -0.191   22 -0.187   27 -0.266   21 0.4704   22  1.164   26 -0.350   22 -0.182
49ERS       6 10 331 383 -0.026  8.209   23 -0.204   23 -0.203   16 -0.048   24 0.4588   11  1.298   17  0.044   20 -0.140
RAIDERS     6 10 301 373 -0.070  8.037   24 -0.232   24 -0.235   25 -0.240   25 0.4540   21  1.188   23 -0.293   23 -0.187
BEARS       5 11 264 320  0.103  8.970   25 -0.241   25 -0.241   18 -0.057   23 0.4602   32  0.859   29 -0.496    4  0.382
BUCCANEERS  5 11 335 382  0.077  8.764   26 -0.252   26 -0.262   17 -0.048   22 0.4680   10  1.313   15  0.064   21 -0.160
JETS        5 11 298 382 -0.047  8.218   27 -0.314   27 -0.318   26 -0.255   27 0.4441   19  1.207   22 -0.283   27 -0.227
BRONCOS     5 11 289 382 -0.149  7.628   28 -0.368   28 -0.383   28 -0.289   28 0.4278   20  1.192   25 -0.336   29 -0.242
TEXANS      4 12 338 436 -0.127  7.954   29 -0.451   29 -0.477   31 -0.406   30 0.4023    5  1.411   20 -0.158   32 -0.655
GIANTS      3 13 246 388  0.024  8.708   30 -0.463   30 -0.486   29 -0.351   29 0.4064   31  0.995   31 -0.639   17 -0.063
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COLTS       4 12 263 404 -0.219  7.479   31 -0.486   31 -0.517   30 -0.369   31 0.3927   25  1.088   30 -0.547   24 -0.192
BROWNS      0 16 234 410 -0.131  8.048   32 -0.828   32 -0.916   32 -0.460   32 0.3236   27  1.059   32 -0.673   30 -0.247

AFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHIEFS     10  7 436 361 -0.091  7.818   13  0.104   13  0.073   15  0.043   13 0.5155    6  1.406    7  0.285   25 -0.198
CHARGERS    9  7 355 272 -0.065  7.365   15  0.048   16  0.021    8  0.203   15 0.5020   30  1.043   18 -0.029    2  0.435
RAIDERS     6 10 301 373 -0.070  8.037   24 -0.232   24 -0.235   25 -0.240   25 0.4540   21  1.188   23 -0.293   23 -0.187
BRONCOS     5 11 289 382 -0.149  7.628   28 -0.368   28 -0.383   28 -0.289   28 0.4278   20  1.192   25 -0.336   29 -0.242

AFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JAGUARS    12  7 492 337 -0.057  8.607    9  0.165    9  0.147    5  0.278   11 0.5208   18  1.210    8  0.253    5  0.303
TITANS     10  8 370 412 -0.126  8.513   14  0.054   15  0.028   21 -0.117   17 0.4940   16  1.238   19 -0.105   19 -0.129
TEXANS      4 12 338 436 -0.127  7.954   29 -0.451   29 -0.477   31 -0.406   30 0.4023    5  1.411   20 -0.158   32 -0.655
COLTS       4 12 263 404 -0.219  7.479   31 -0.486   31 -0.517   30 -0.369   31 0.3927   25  1.088   30 -0.547   24 -0.192

AFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
STEELERS   13  4 448 353 -0.013  8.180    4  0.454    4  0.419    9  0.177    7 0.5613    7  1.401    6  0.412   16 -0.058
RAVENS      9  7 395 303 -0.135  6.886   18 -0.014   18 -0.024   10  0.152   20 0.4894   13  1.247    9  0.176   10  0.129
BENGALS     7  9 290 349 -0.172  7.504   21 -0.187   21 -0.185   23 -0.218   26 0.4531   24  1.092   27 -0.392   15 -0.045
BROWNS      0 16 234 410 -0.131  8.048   32 -0.828   32 -0.916   32 -0.460   32 0.3236   27  1.059   32 -0.673   30 -0.247

AFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PATRIOTS   15  4 550 371  0.027  9.189    3  0.534    3  0.486    2  0.428    3 0.5961    4  1.420    2  0.689    7  0.167
BILLS       9  8 305 369 -0.059  8.592   16  0.035   14  0.034   22 -0.193   14 0.5109   29  1.047   28 -0.420   13  0.034
DOLPHINS    6 10 281 393 -0.034  8.445   22 -0.191   22 -0.187   27 -0.266   21 0.4704   22  1.164   26 -0.350   22 -0.182
JETS        5 11 298 382 -0.047  8.218   27 -0.314   27 -0.318   26 -0.255   27 0.4441   19  1.207   22 -0.283   27 -0.227

NFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAMS       11  6 491 355  0.074  8.605    8  0.261    8  0.248    7  0.241    8 0.5507    2  1.479    4  0.589   18 -0.107
SEAHAWKS    9  7 366 332 -0.016  7.893   12  0.109   12  0.080   14  0.061   12 0.5159   12  1.248   14  0.087   12  0.036
CARDINALS   8  8 295 361 -0.034  8.184   17 -0.004   17 -0.009   20 -0.091   18 0.4931   28  1.049   24 -0.316    9  0.134
49ERS       6 10 331 383 -0.026  8.209   23 -0.204   23 -0.203   16 -0.048   24 0.4588   11  1.298   17  0.044   20 -0.140

NFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAINTS     12  6 503 381  0.199 10.061    5  0.413    5  0.375    4  0.336    4 0.5880    3  1.459    3  0.655   14  0.018
PANTHERS   11  6 389 358  0.204  9.755    6  0.353    6  0.358   11  0.147    5 0.5814   15  1.239   10  0.159    8  0.134
FALCONS    11  7 389 343  0.226 10.452    7  0.302    7  0.296    6  0.265    6 0.5722   23  1.097   12  0.098    3  0.432
BUCCANEERS  5 11 335 382  0.077  8.764   26 -0.252   26 -0.262   17 -0.048   22 0.4680   10  1.313   15  0.064   21 -0.160

NFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
VIKINGS    14  4 418 314  0.184  9.961    2  0.602    2  0.564    3  0.337    2 0.6064   26  1.062   11  0.127    1  0.546
LIONS       9  7 410 376  0.035  8.182   10  0.126   10  0.108   13  0.085    9 0.5246    1  1.541    5  0.525   31 -0.355
PACKERS     7  9 320 384  0.092  8.998   19 -0.057   19 -0.036   24 -0.220   16 0.4952   14  1.244   21 -0.201   28 -0.239
BEARS       5 11 264 320  0.103  8.970   25 -0.241   25 -0.241   18 -0.057   23 0.4602   32  0.859   29 -0.496    4  0.382

NFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
EAGLES     16  3 551 345  0.127  9.788    1  0.689    1  0.648    1  0.502    1 0.6170    8  1.395    1  0.727    6  0.276
COWBOYS     9  7 354 332  0.016  8.127   11  0.119   11  0.099   12  0.091   10 0.5218   17  1.226   13  0.087   11  0.095
REDSKINS    7  9 342 388  0.074  8.714   20 -0.072   20 -0.054   19 -0.086   19 0.4918    9  1.327   16  0.045   26 -0.217
GIANTS      3 13 246 388  0.024  8.708   30 -0.463   30 -0.486   29 -0.351   29 0.4064   31  0.995   31 -0.639   17 -0.063

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC SOUTH  39 30 0.565    1  0.314
NFC NORTH  35 31 0.530    2  0.098
NFC EAST   35 32 0.522    3  0.057
NFC WEST   34 31 0.523    4  0.033
AFC WEST   30 35 0.462    5 -0.104
AFC EAST   35 33 0.515    6 -0.156
AFC NORTH  29 36 0.446    7 -0.159
AFC SOUTH  30 39 0.435    8 -0.274

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.170 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.022 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:49:21 2020
games through: Sun Feb  4 2018

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