Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAMS       15  4  0 586 442  0.087  9.617    1  0.493    1  0.487    7  0.213    1 0.5945    2  1.575    2  0.622   22 -0.196
SAINTS     14  4  0 547 393  0.094  9.362    2  0.461    2  0.446    3  0.293    2 0.5911    6  1.453    3  0.519   13  0.068
PATRIOTS   14  5  0 527 387  0.054  9.363    3  0.387    4  0.371    1  0.357    3 0.5841   17  1.315    4  0.388    5  0.325
CHIEFS     13  5  0 627 471  0.110  9.116    4  0.381    5  0.370    2  0.317    5 0.5736    1  1.808    1  1.105   30 -0.471
CHARGERS   13  5  0 479 387  0.105  9.266    5  0.377    3  0.380    4  0.229    4 0.5765   14  1.363    6  0.327    9  0.131
BEARS      12  5  0 436 299 -0.112  7.422    6  0.221    6  0.215    5  0.227    7 0.5430   24  1.138   15  0.027    2  0.427
COWBOYS    11  7  0 385 376  0.048  9.383    7  0.193    7  0.190   16  0.004    9 0.5393   25  1.126   24 -0.210    7  0.219
TEXANS     11  6  0 409 337 -0.055  7.977    8  0.186    8  0.171   12  0.107    6 0.5450   18  1.290   12  0.104   11  0.109
STEELERS    9  6  1 428 360  0.112  8.520    9  0.183    9  0.170    9  0.153   10 0.5343   10  1.409    7  0.315   19 -0.009
RAVENS     10  7  0 406 310  0.101  8.783   10  0.182   10  0.159    6  0.215   11 0.5325   28  1.054   19 -0.087    1  0.517
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
EAGLES     10  8  0 397 383  0.092  9.567   11  0.149   11  0.125   10  0.143   12 0.5325   23  1.181   17 -0.002    6  0.288
COLTS      11  7  0 467 382 -0.038  8.447   12  0.144   12  0.119    8  0.195    8 0.5396   11  1.388    5  0.328   15  0.061
SEAHAWKS   10  7  0 450 371 -0.007  8.178   13  0.128   13  0.103   11  0.136   14 0.5224   12  1.384    9  0.264   18  0.009
TITANS      9  7  0 310 303 -0.005  7.980   14  0.100   14  0.074   13  0.033   13 0.5275   29  1.040   26 -0.286    4  0.351
VIKINGS     8  7  1 360 341 -0.039  7.783   15  0.037   15  0.009   15  0.012   15 0.5028   21  1.215   20 -0.089   10  0.114
BROWNS      7  8  1 359 392  0.081  8.622   16  0.021   16 -0.006   17 -0.003   16 0.4929   19  1.251   18 -0.058   16  0.052
PANTHERS    7  9  0 376 382  0.066  8.457   17 -0.026   17 -0.054   14  0.015   17 0.4790   16  1.320   14  0.052   21 -0.023
FALCONS     7  9  0 414 423 -0.000  8.075   18 -0.063   18 -0.101   18 -0.003   19 0.4723    4  1.496    8  0.287   25 -0.293
REDSKINS    7  9  0 281 359 -0.062  7.870   19 -0.100   19 -0.123   28 -0.247   18 0.4747   27  1.062   29 -0.539   17  0.045
BENGALS     6 10  0 368 455  0.079  8.842   20 -0.107   20 -0.128   23 -0.159   21 0.4677    8  1.448   13  0.060   28 -0.378
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DOLPHINS    7  9  0 319 433 -0.197  7.324   21 -0.159   21 -0.172   30 -0.347   20 0.4691   13  1.365   25 -0.247   29 -0.447
BRONCOS     6 10  0 329 349  0.006  8.183   22 -0.171   22 -0.182   20 -0.082   22 0.4625   26  1.084   27 -0.349    8  0.184
PACKERS     6  9  1 376 400 -0.120  7.480   23 -0.196   23 -0.210   24 -0.168   24 0.4559    9  1.420   16  0.010   26 -0.347
BILLS       6 10  0 269 374 -0.086  8.010   24 -0.216   24 -0.215   27 -0.222   23 0.4624   30  1.040   30 -0.541   12  0.096
BUCCANEERS  5 11  0 396 464  0.062  8.626   25 -0.232   25 -0.230   22 -0.122   28 0.4408    3  1.558   10  0.261   31 -0.505
LIONS       6 10  0 324 360 -0.088  7.610   26 -0.233   26 -0.234   19 -0.057   26 0.4506   22  1.199   23 -0.180   14  0.066
JAGUARS     5 11  0 245 316 -0.005  8.267   27 -0.268   28 -0.269   25 -0.182   25 0.4533   32  0.803   31 -0.762    3  0.399
GIANTS      5 11  0 369 412  0.006  8.243   28 -0.270   27 -0.266   21 -0.098   27 0.4433    5  1.471   11  0.155   27 -0.351
RAIDERS     4 12  0 290 467 -0.002  8.698   29 -0.345   29 -0.343   31 -0.351   29 0.4280   20  1.238   28 -0.423   24 -0.279
49ERS       4 12  0 342 435 -0.085  7.973   30 -0.391   30 -0.412   26 -0.200   31 0.4103   15  1.338   22 -0.137   23 -0.263
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JETS        4 12  0 333 441 -0.138  7.629   31 -0.404   31 -0.426   29 -0.344   30 0.4168    7  1.450   21 -0.121   32 -0.567
CARDINALS   3 13  0 225 425 -0.092  8.324   32 -0.459   32 -0.482   32 -0.437   32 0.3953   31  0.948   32 -0.862   20 -0.012

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHIEFS     13  5  0 627 471  0.110  9.116    4  0.381    5  0.370    2  0.317    5 0.5736    1  1.808    1  1.105   30 -0.471
CHARGERS   13  5  0 479 387  0.105  9.266    5  0.377    3  0.380    4  0.229    4 0.5765   14  1.363    6  0.327    9  0.131
BRONCOS     6 10  0 329 349  0.006  8.183   22 -0.171   22 -0.182   20 -0.082   22 0.4625   26  1.084   27 -0.349    8  0.184
RAIDERS     4 12  0 290 467 -0.002  8.698   29 -0.345   29 -0.343   31 -0.351   29 0.4280   20  1.238   28 -0.423   24 -0.279

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEXANS     11  6  0 409 337 -0.055  7.977    8  0.186    8  0.171   12  0.107    6 0.5450   18  1.290   12  0.104   11  0.109
COLTS      11  7  0 467 382 -0.038  8.447   12  0.144   12  0.119    8  0.195    8 0.5396   11  1.388    5  0.328   15  0.061
TITANS      9  7  0 310 303 -0.005  7.980   14  0.100   14  0.074   13  0.033   13 0.5275   29  1.040   26 -0.286    4  0.351
JAGUARS     5 11  0 245 316 -0.005  8.267   27 -0.268   28 -0.269   25 -0.182   25 0.4533   32  0.803   31 -0.762    3  0.399

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
STEELERS    9  6  1 428 360  0.112  8.520    9  0.183    9  0.170    9  0.153   10 0.5343   10  1.409    7  0.315   19 -0.009
RAVENS     10  7  0 406 310  0.101  8.783   10  0.182   10  0.159    6  0.215   11 0.5325   28  1.054   19 -0.087    1  0.517
BROWNS      7  8  1 359 392  0.081  8.622   16  0.021   16 -0.006   17 -0.003   16 0.4929   19  1.251   18 -0.058   16  0.052
BENGALS     6 10  0 368 455  0.079  8.842   20 -0.107   20 -0.128   23 -0.159   21 0.4677    8  1.448   13  0.060   28 -0.378

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PATRIOTS   14  5  0 527 387  0.054  9.363    3  0.387    4  0.371    1  0.357    3 0.5841   17  1.315    4  0.388    5  0.325
DOLPHINS    7  9  0 319 433 -0.197  7.324   21 -0.159   21 -0.172   30 -0.347   20 0.4691   13  1.365   25 -0.247   29 -0.447
BILLS       6 10  0 269 374 -0.086  8.010   24 -0.216   24 -0.215   27 -0.222   23 0.4624   30  1.040   30 -0.541   12  0.096
JETS        4 12  0 333 441 -0.138  7.629   31 -0.404   31 -0.426   29 -0.344   30 0.4168    7  1.450   21 -0.121   32 -0.567

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAMS       15  4  0 586 442  0.087  9.617    1  0.493    1  0.487    7  0.213    1 0.5945    2  1.575    2  0.622   22 -0.196
SEAHAWKS   10  7  0 450 371 -0.007  8.178   13  0.128   13  0.103   11  0.136   14 0.5224   12  1.384    9  0.264   18  0.009
49ERS       4 12  0 342 435 -0.085  7.973   30 -0.391   30 -0.412   26 -0.200   31 0.4103   15  1.338   22 -0.137   23 -0.263
CARDINALS   3 13  0 225 425 -0.092  8.324   32 -0.459   32 -0.482   32 -0.437   32 0.3953   31  0.948   32 -0.862   20 -0.012

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAINTS     14  4  0 547 393  0.094  9.362    2  0.461    2  0.446    3  0.293    2 0.5911    6  1.453    3  0.519   13  0.068
PANTHERS    7  9  0 376 382  0.066  8.457   17 -0.026   17 -0.054   14  0.015   17 0.4790   16  1.320   14  0.052   21 -0.023
FALCONS     7  9  0 414 423 -0.000  8.075   18 -0.063   18 -0.101   18 -0.003   19 0.4723    4  1.496    8  0.287   25 -0.293
BUCCANEERS  5 11  0 396 464  0.062  8.626   25 -0.232   25 -0.230   22 -0.122   28 0.4408    3  1.558   10  0.261   31 -0.505

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BEARS      12  5  0 436 299 -0.112  7.422    6  0.221    6  0.215    5  0.227    7 0.5430   24  1.138   15  0.027    2  0.427
VIKINGS     8  7  1 360 341 -0.039  7.783   15  0.037   15  0.009   15  0.012   15 0.5028   21  1.215   20 -0.089   10  0.114
PACKERS     6  9  1 376 400 -0.120  7.480   23 -0.196   23 -0.210   24 -0.168   24 0.4559    9  1.420   16  0.010   26 -0.347
LIONS       6 10  0 324 360 -0.088  7.610   26 -0.233   26 -0.234   19 -0.057   26 0.4506   22  1.199   23 -0.180   14  0.066

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COWBOYS    11  7  0 385 376  0.048  9.383    7  0.193    7  0.190   16  0.004    9 0.5393   25  1.126   24 -0.210    7  0.219
EAGLES     10  8  0 397 383  0.092  9.567   11  0.149   11  0.125   10  0.143   12 0.5325   23  1.181   17 -0.002    6  0.288
REDSKINS    7  9  0 281 359 -0.062  7.870   19 -0.100   19 -0.123   28 -0.247   18 0.4747   27  1.062   29 -0.539   17  0.045
GIANTS      5 11  0 369 412  0.006  8.243   28 -0.270   27 -0.266   21 -0.098   27 0.4433    5  1.471   11  0.155   27 -0.351

DIVISION    W  L  T   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC NORTH  32 31  2 0.508    1  0.150
NFC SOUTH  33 33  0 0.500    2  0.101
AFC SOUTH  36 31  0 0.537    3  0.068
AFC WEST   36 32  0 0.529    4  0.063
NFC NORTH  32 31  2 0.508    5  0.012
NFC EAST   33 35  0 0.485    6 -0.089
NFC WEST   32 36  0 0.471    7 -0.123
AFC EAST   31 36  0 0.463    8 -0.342

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.145 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.028 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:06:06 2024
games through: Sun Feb  3 2019

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