Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAMS       15  4  0 586 442  0.087  9.614    1  0.493    1  0.488    7  0.214    1 0.5945    2  1.575    2  0.623   22 -0.195
SAINTS     14  4  0 547 393  0.095  9.362    2  0.461    2  0.447    3  0.294    2 0.5911    6  1.453    3  0.520   13  0.069
PATRIOTS   14  5  0 527 387  0.055  9.363    3  0.387    4  0.372    1  0.358    3 0.5841   17  1.315    4  0.389    5  0.326
CHIEFS     13  5  0 627 471  0.110  9.114    4  0.381    5  0.371    2  0.318    5 0.5736    1  1.808    1  1.106   30 -0.471
CHARGERS   13  5  0 479 387  0.105  9.264    5  0.376    3  0.381    4  0.230    4 0.5765   14  1.363    6  0.328    9  0.132
BEARS      12  5  0 436 299 -0.111  7.421    6  0.221    6  0.216    5  0.228    7 0.5430   24  1.138   15  0.028    2  0.428
COWBOYS    11  7  0 385 376  0.049  9.384    7  0.193    7  0.191   16  0.006    9 0.5393   25  1.126   24 -0.209    7  0.220
TEXANS     11  6  0 409 337 -0.053  7.979    8  0.186    8  0.172   12  0.108    6 0.5450   18  1.290   12  0.105   11  0.111
STEELERS    9  6  1 428 360  0.113  8.520    9  0.183    9  0.171    9  0.154   10 0.5343   10  1.409    7  0.316   19 -0.008
RAVENS     10  7  0 406 310  0.102  8.784   10  0.182   10  0.160    6  0.216   11 0.5325   28  1.054   19 -0.085    1  0.518
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
EAGLES     10  8  0 397 383  0.093  9.567   11  0.149   11  0.126   10  0.144   12 0.5325   23  1.181   17 -0.001    6  0.289
COLTS      11  7  0 467 382 -0.037  8.449   12  0.145   12  0.120    8  0.196    8 0.5396   11  1.388    5  0.329   15  0.062
SEAHAWKS   10  7  0 450 371 -0.007  8.173   13  0.127   13  0.104   11  0.137   14 0.5224   12  1.384    9  0.264   18  0.009
TITANS      9  7  0 310 303 -0.003  7.982   14  0.100   14  0.075   13  0.034   13 0.5275   29  1.040   26 -0.284    4  0.352
VIKINGS     8  7  1 360 341 -0.038  7.780   15  0.037   15  0.010   15  0.013   15 0.5028   21  1.215   20 -0.089   10  0.115
BROWNS      7  8  1 359 392  0.082  8.621   16  0.021   16 -0.005   17 -0.002   16 0.4929   19  1.251   18 -0.057   16  0.053
PANTHERS    7  9  0 376 382  0.067  8.458   17 -0.026   17 -0.053   14  0.016   17 0.4790   16  1.320   14  0.054   21 -0.022
FALCONS     7  9  0 414 423  0.001  8.075   18 -0.063   18 -0.100   18 -0.002   19 0.4723    4  1.496    8  0.288   25 -0.292
REDSKINS    7  9  0 281 359 -0.061  7.872   19 -0.100   19 -0.122   28 -0.246   18 0.4747   27  1.062   29 -0.538   17  0.046
BENGALS     6 10  0 368 455  0.081  8.842   20 -0.107   20 -0.127   23 -0.158   21 0.4677    8  1.448   13  0.061   28 -0.377
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DOLPHINS    7  9  0 319 433 -0.195  7.325   21 -0.159   21 -0.171   30 -0.346   20 0.4691   13  1.365   25 -0.246   29 -0.446
BRONCOS     6 10  0 329 349  0.006  8.181   22 -0.171   22 -0.181   20 -0.082   22 0.4625   26  1.084   27 -0.348    8  0.185
PACKERS     6  9  1 376 400 -0.120  7.478   23 -0.196   23 -0.209   24 -0.168   24 0.4559    9  1.420   16  0.011   26 -0.346
BILLS       6 10  0 269 374 -0.085  8.010   24 -0.216   24 -0.214   27 -0.221   23 0.4624   30  1.040   30 -0.540   12  0.097
BUCCANEERS  5 11  0 396 464  0.063  8.627   25 -0.232   25 -0.229   22 -0.121   28 0.4408    3  1.558   10  0.262   31 -0.504
LIONS       6 10  0 324 360 -0.087  7.607   26 -0.233   26 -0.233   19 -0.056   26 0.4506   22  1.199   23 -0.179   14  0.067
JAGUARS     5 11  0 245 316 -0.003  8.269   27 -0.268   28 -0.267   25 -0.180   25 0.4533   32  0.803   31 -0.761    3  0.400
GIANTS      5 11  0 369 412  0.007  8.244   28 -0.270   27 -0.265   21 -0.097   27 0.4433    5  1.471   11  0.156   27 -0.350
RAIDERS     4 12  0 290 467 -0.002  8.695   29 -0.345   29 -0.342   31 -0.350   29 0.4280   20  1.238   28 -0.422   24 -0.279
49ERS       4 12  0 342 435 -0.084  7.968   30 -0.392   30 -0.412   26 -0.199   31 0.4103   15  1.338   22 -0.137   23 -0.262
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JETS        4 12  0 333 441 -0.137  7.631   31 -0.404   31 -0.425   29 -0.343   30 0.4168    7  1.450   21 -0.120   32 -0.565
CARDINALS   3 13  0 225 425 -0.092  8.320   32 -0.459   32 -0.482   32 -0.436   32 0.3953   31  0.948   32 -0.861   20 -0.011

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHIEFS     13  5  0 627 471  0.110  9.114    4  0.381    5  0.371    2  0.318    5 0.5736    1  1.808    1  1.106   30 -0.471
CHARGERS   13  5  0 479 387  0.105  9.264    5  0.376    3  0.381    4  0.230    4 0.5765   14  1.363    6  0.328    9  0.132
BRONCOS     6 10  0 329 349  0.006  8.181   22 -0.171   22 -0.181   20 -0.082   22 0.4625   26  1.084   27 -0.348    8  0.185
RAIDERS     4 12  0 290 467 -0.002  8.695   29 -0.345   29 -0.342   31 -0.350   29 0.4280   20  1.238   28 -0.422   24 -0.279

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEXANS     11  6  0 409 337 -0.053  7.979    8  0.186    8  0.172   12  0.108    6 0.5450   18  1.290   12  0.105   11  0.111
COLTS      11  7  0 467 382 -0.037  8.449   12  0.145   12  0.120    8  0.196    8 0.5396   11  1.388    5  0.329   15  0.062
TITANS      9  7  0 310 303 -0.003  7.982   14  0.100   14  0.075   13  0.034   13 0.5275   29  1.040   26 -0.284    4  0.352
JAGUARS     5 11  0 245 316 -0.003  8.269   27 -0.268   28 -0.267   25 -0.180   25 0.4533   32  0.803   31 -0.761    3  0.400

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
STEELERS    9  6  1 428 360  0.113  8.520    9  0.183    9  0.171    9  0.154   10 0.5343   10  1.409    7  0.316   19 -0.008
RAVENS     10  7  0 406 310  0.102  8.784   10  0.182   10  0.160    6  0.216   11 0.5325   28  1.054   19 -0.085    1  0.518
BROWNS      7  8  1 359 392  0.082  8.621   16  0.021   16 -0.005   17 -0.002   16 0.4929   19  1.251   18 -0.057   16  0.053
BENGALS     6 10  0 368 455  0.081  8.842   20 -0.107   20 -0.127   23 -0.158   21 0.4677    8  1.448   13  0.061   28 -0.377

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PATRIOTS   14  5  0 527 387  0.055  9.363    3  0.387    4  0.372    1  0.358    3 0.5841   17  1.315    4  0.389    5  0.326
DOLPHINS    7  9  0 319 433 -0.195  7.325   21 -0.159   21 -0.171   30 -0.346   20 0.4691   13  1.365   25 -0.246   29 -0.446
BILLS       6 10  0 269 374 -0.085  8.010   24 -0.216   24 -0.214   27 -0.221   23 0.4624   30  1.040   30 -0.540   12  0.097
JETS        4 12  0 333 441 -0.137  7.631   31 -0.404   31 -0.425   29 -0.343   30 0.4168    7  1.450   21 -0.120   32 -0.565

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAMS       15  4  0 586 442  0.087  9.614    1  0.493    1  0.488    7  0.214    1 0.5945    2  1.575    2  0.623   22 -0.195
SEAHAWKS   10  7  0 450 371 -0.007  8.173   13  0.127   13  0.104   11  0.137   14 0.5224   12  1.384    9  0.264   18  0.009
49ERS       4 12  0 342 435 -0.084  7.968   30 -0.392   30 -0.412   26 -0.199   31 0.4103   15  1.338   22 -0.137   23 -0.262
CARDINALS   3 13  0 225 425 -0.092  8.320   32 -0.459   32 -0.482   32 -0.436   32 0.3953   31  0.948   32 -0.861   20 -0.011

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAINTS     14  4  0 547 393  0.095  9.362    2  0.461    2  0.447    3  0.294    2 0.5911    6  1.453    3  0.520   13  0.069
PANTHERS    7  9  0 376 382  0.067  8.458   17 -0.026   17 -0.053   14  0.016   17 0.4790   16  1.320   14  0.054   21 -0.022
FALCONS     7  9  0 414 423  0.001  8.075   18 -0.063   18 -0.100   18 -0.002   19 0.4723    4  1.496    8  0.288   25 -0.292
BUCCANEERS  5 11  0 396 464  0.063  8.627   25 -0.232   25 -0.229   22 -0.121   28 0.4408    3  1.558   10  0.262   31 -0.504

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BEARS      12  5  0 436 299 -0.111  7.421    6  0.221    6  0.216    5  0.228    7 0.5430   24  1.138   15  0.028    2  0.428
VIKINGS     8  7  1 360 341 -0.038  7.780   15  0.037   15  0.010   15  0.013   15 0.5028   21  1.215   20 -0.089   10  0.115
PACKERS     6  9  1 376 400 -0.120  7.478   23 -0.196   23 -0.209   24 -0.168   24 0.4559    9  1.420   16  0.011   26 -0.346
LIONS       6 10  0 324 360 -0.087  7.607   26 -0.233   26 -0.233   19 -0.056   26 0.4506   22  1.199   23 -0.179   14  0.067

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COWBOYS    11  7  0 385 376  0.049  9.384    7  0.193    7  0.191   16  0.006    9 0.5393   25  1.126   24 -0.209    7  0.220
EAGLES     10  8  0 397 383  0.093  9.567   11  0.149   11  0.126   10  0.144   12 0.5325   23  1.181   17 -0.001    6  0.289
REDSKINS    7  9  0 281 359 -0.061  7.872   19 -0.100   19 -0.122   28 -0.246   18 0.4747   27  1.062   29 -0.538   17  0.046
GIANTS      5 11  0 369 412  0.007  8.244   28 -0.270   27 -0.265   21 -0.097   27 0.4433    5  1.471   11  0.156   27 -0.350

DIVISION    W  L  T   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC NORTH  32 31  2 0.508    1  0.151
NFC SOUTH  33 33  0 0.500    2  0.103
AFC SOUTH  36 31  0 0.537    3  0.070
AFC WEST   36 32  0 0.529    4  0.063
NFC NORTH  32 31  2 0.508    5  0.013
NFC EAST   33 35  0 0.485    6 -0.088
NFC WEST   32 36  0 0.471    7 -0.123
AFC EAST   31 36  0 0.463    8 -0.340

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.145 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.028 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:49:37 2020
games through: Sun Feb  3 2019

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