Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAVENS     14  3  0 543 310  0.149  8.729    1  0.637    1  0.615    2  0.555    2 0.6079    4  1.435    2  0.780    6  0.331
49ERS      15  4  0 563 371  0.177 10.235    2  0.623    2  0.607    3  0.507    1 0.6142   13  1.348    3  0.609    3  0.404
CHIEFS     15  4  0 568 383  0.146 10.072    3  0.609    3  0.588    1  0.596    3 0.6076    3  1.481    1  0.889    7  0.304
PACKERS    14  4  0 424 373  0.015  9.040    4  0.520    4  0.509   10  0.110    5 0.5853   21  1.255   13  0.086   12  0.135
SAINTS     13  4  0 478 367  0.081  8.900    5  0.506    5  0.493    4  0.356    4 0.5957   12  1.376    5  0.497   11  0.215
SEAHAWKS   12  6  0 445 435  0.149 10.145    6  0.390    6  0.388   12  0.081    6 0.5747   11  1.377    9  0.223   18 -0.061
PATRIOTS   12  5  0 433 245 -0.007  7.731    7  0.294    7  0.281    6  0.298    8 0.5459   28  0.980   17 -0.065    1  0.661
TEXANS     11  7  0 431 455  0.114  9.989    8  0.261    8  0.270   15 -0.011    7 0.5540    5  1.434   10  0.212   23 -0.234
TITANS     11  8  0 474 391  0.115 10.249    9  0.216    9  0.200    5  0.314    9 0.5435   18  1.288    6  0.333    8  0.294
VIKINGS    11  7  0 443 350  0.033  9.082   10  0.211   10  0.194    7  0.167   11 0.5375   22  1.222   12  0.100   10  0.234
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAMS        9  7  0 394 364  0.149  8.866   11  0.195   11  0.179    8  0.166   10 0.5379   17  1.320    8  0.230   13  0.102
BILLS      10  7  0 333 281 -0.092  7.857   12  0.102   12  0.074   13  0.066   12 0.5055   31  0.902   25 -0.384    2  0.517
STEELERS    8  8  0 289 303  0.028  8.374   13  0.029   13  0.009   17 -0.059   14 0.4971   30  0.906   30 -0.505    5  0.386
BEARS       8  8  0 280 298 -0.021  8.155   14  0.011   14 -0.011   19 -0.093   15 0.4948   32  0.869   31 -0.579    4  0.394
FALCONS     7  9  0 381 399  0.077  8.676   15 -0.025   15 -0.049   11  0.095   13 0.5004   16  1.330   11  0.173   15  0.017
EAGLES      9  8  0 394 371 -0.141  7.765   16 -0.034   16 -0.052   16 -0.046   19 0.4833   19  1.285   15 -0.030   19 -0.062
COWBOYS     8  8  0 434 321 -0.106  7.154   17 -0.057   17 -0.105    9  0.150   21 0.4728   10  1.378    7  0.295   17  0.005
BRONCOS     7  9  0 282 316 -0.015  8.224   18 -0.070   18 -0.117   21 -0.100   17 0.4849   29  0.956   28 -0.490    9  0.290
BUCCANEERS  7  9  0 458 449  0.004  8.154   19 -0.075   19 -0.122   14  0.048   16 0.4876    1  1.609    4  0.534   28 -0.439
COLTS       7  9  0 361 373 -0.065  7.825   20 -0.107   21 -0.147   20 -0.097   18 0.4846   20  1.276   19 -0.092   20 -0.101
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAIDERS     7  9  0 313 419 -0.081  8.045   21 -0.115   20 -0.146   26 -0.314   20 0.4775   15  1.340   23 -0.222   27 -0.405
BROWNS      6 10  0 335 393  0.042  8.638   22 -0.140   22 -0.172   23 -0.142   22 0.4655   14  1.347   16 -0.041   24 -0.243
JETS        7  9  0 276 359 -0.219  7.379   23 -0.199   23 -0.219   24 -0.240   26 0.4508   27  1.073   29 -0.494   16  0.014
CARDINALS   5 10  1 361 442  0.063  8.859   24 -0.212   24 -0.230   22 -0.105   23 0.4630    7  1.411   14  0.086   25 -0.296
JAGUARS     6 10  0 300 397 -0.078  8.014   25 -0.228   25 -0.248   28 -0.326   24 0.4619   26  1.180   27 -0.447   21 -0.204
PANTHERS    5 11  0 340 470  0.024  8.760   26 -0.261   26 -0.288   31 -0.415   25 0.4600    9  1.401   24 -0.239   31 -0.591
CHARGERS    5 11  0 337 345 -0.063  7.852   27 -0.332   27 -0.368   18 -0.076   27 0.4444   24  1.190   22 -0.185   14  0.032
DOLPHINS    5 11  0 306 494 -0.178  7.904   28 -0.373   28 -0.377   30 -0.405   28 0.4131    2  1.501   18 -0.083   32 -0.727
LIONS       3 12  1 341 423 -0.081  7.966   29 -0.509   29 -0.525   25 -0.294   29 0.4012    8  1.408   20 -0.107   29 -0.481
GIANTS      4 12  0 341 451 -0.200  7.446   30 -0.534   30 -0.539   29 -0.368   30 0.3884    6  1.419   21 -0.166   30 -0.570
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
REDSKINS    3 13  0 266 435 -0.187  7.804   31 -0.645   31 -0.633   32 -0.491   32 0.3767   25  1.180   32 -0.612   26 -0.370
BENGALS     2 14  0 279 420 -0.045  8.518   32 -0.688   32 -0.682   27 -0.316   31 0.3863   23  1.204   26 -0.407   22 -0.225

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHIEFS     15  4  0 568 383  0.146 10.072    3  0.609    3  0.588    1  0.596    3 0.6076    3  1.481    1  0.889    7  0.304
BRONCOS     7  9  0 282 316 -0.015  8.224   18 -0.070   18 -0.117   21 -0.100   17 0.4849   29  0.956   28 -0.490    9  0.290
RAIDERS     7  9  0 313 419 -0.081  8.045   21 -0.115   20 -0.146   26 -0.314   20 0.4775   15  1.340   23 -0.222   27 -0.405
CHARGERS    5 11  0 337 345 -0.063  7.852   27 -0.332   27 -0.368   18 -0.076   27 0.4444   24  1.190   22 -0.185   14  0.032

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEXANS     11  7  0 431 455  0.114  9.989    8  0.261    8  0.270   15 -0.011    7 0.5540    5  1.434   10  0.212   23 -0.234
TITANS     11  8  0 474 391  0.115 10.249    9  0.216    9  0.200    5  0.314    9 0.5435   18  1.288    6  0.333    8  0.294
COLTS       7  9  0 361 373 -0.065  7.825   20 -0.107   21 -0.147   20 -0.097   18 0.4846   20  1.276   19 -0.092   20 -0.101
JAGUARS     6 10  0 300 397 -0.078  8.014   25 -0.228   25 -0.248   28 -0.326   24 0.4619   26  1.180   27 -0.447   21 -0.204

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAVENS     14  3  0 543 310  0.149  8.729    1  0.637    1  0.615    2  0.555    2 0.6079    4  1.435    2  0.780    6  0.331
STEELERS    8  8  0 289 303  0.028  8.374   13  0.029   13  0.009   17 -0.059   14 0.4971   30  0.906   30 -0.505    5  0.386
BROWNS      6 10  0 335 393  0.042  8.638   22 -0.140   22 -0.172   23 -0.142   22 0.4655   14  1.347   16 -0.041   24 -0.243
BENGALS     2 14  0 279 420 -0.045  8.518   32 -0.688   32 -0.682   27 -0.316   31 0.3863   23  1.204   26 -0.407   22 -0.225

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PATRIOTS   12  5  0 433 245 -0.007  7.731    7  0.294    7  0.281    6  0.298    8 0.5459   28  0.980   17 -0.065    1  0.661
BILLS      10  7  0 333 281 -0.092  7.857   12  0.102   12  0.074   13  0.066   12 0.5055   31  0.902   25 -0.384    2  0.517
JETS        7  9  0 276 359 -0.219  7.379   23 -0.199   23 -0.219   24 -0.240   26 0.4508   27  1.073   29 -0.494   16  0.014
DOLPHINS    5 11  0 306 494 -0.178  7.904   28 -0.373   28 -0.377   30 -0.405   28 0.4131    2  1.501   18 -0.083   32 -0.727

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
49ERS      15  4  0 563 371  0.177 10.235    2  0.623    2  0.607    3  0.507    1 0.6142   13  1.348    3  0.609    3  0.404
SEAHAWKS   12  6  0 445 435  0.149 10.145    6  0.390    6  0.388   12  0.081    6 0.5747   11  1.377    9  0.223   18 -0.061
RAMS        9  7  0 394 364  0.149  8.866   11  0.195   11  0.179    8  0.166   10 0.5379   17  1.320    8  0.230   13  0.102
CARDINALS   5 10  1 361 442  0.063  8.859   24 -0.212   24 -0.230   22 -0.105   23 0.4630    7  1.411   14  0.086   25 -0.296

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAINTS     13  4  0 478 367  0.081  8.900    5  0.506    5  0.493    4  0.356    4 0.5957   12  1.376    5  0.497   11  0.215
FALCONS     7  9  0 381 399  0.077  8.676   15 -0.025   15 -0.049   11  0.095   13 0.5004   16  1.330   11  0.173   15  0.017
BUCCANEERS  7  9  0 458 449  0.004  8.154   19 -0.075   19 -0.122   14  0.048   16 0.4876    1  1.609    4  0.534   28 -0.439
PANTHERS    5 11  0 340 470  0.024  8.760   26 -0.261   26 -0.288   31 -0.415   25 0.4600    9  1.401   24 -0.239   31 -0.591

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PACKERS    14  4  0 424 373  0.015  9.040    4  0.520    4  0.509   10  0.110    5 0.5853   21  1.255   13  0.086   12  0.135
VIKINGS    11  7  0 443 350  0.033  9.082   10  0.211   10  0.194    7  0.167   11 0.5375   22  1.222   12  0.100   10  0.234
BEARS       8  8  0 280 298 -0.021  8.155   14  0.011   14 -0.011   19 -0.093   15 0.4948   32  0.869   31 -0.579    4  0.394
LIONS       3 12  1 341 423 -0.081  7.966   29 -0.509   29 -0.525   25 -0.294   29 0.4012    8  1.408   20 -0.107   29 -0.481

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
EAGLES      9  8  0 394 371 -0.141  7.765   16 -0.034   16 -0.052   16 -0.046   19 0.4833   19  1.285   15 -0.030   19 -0.062
COWBOYS     8  8  0 434 321 -0.106  7.154   17 -0.057   17 -0.105    9  0.150   21 0.4728   10  1.378    7  0.295   17  0.005
GIANTS      4 12  0 341 451 -0.200  7.446   30 -0.534   30 -0.539   29 -0.368   30 0.3884    6  1.419   21 -0.166   30 -0.570
REDSKINS    3 13  0 266 435 -0.187  7.804   31 -0.645   31 -0.633   32 -0.491   32 0.3767   25  1.180   32 -0.612   26 -0.370

DIVISION    W  L  T   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC WEST   41 27  1 0.601    1  0.276
AFC NORTH  30 35  0 0.462    2  0.026
NFC SOUTH  32 33  0 0.492    3  0.025
NFC NORTH  36 31  1 0.537    4  0.006
AFC WEST   34 33  0 0.507    5 -0.011
AFC SOUTH  35 34  0 0.507    6 -0.043
AFC EAST   34 32  0 0.515    7 -0.154
NFC EAST   24 41  0 0.369    8 -0.327

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.040 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Feb  8 18:14:26 2020
games through: Sun Feb  2 2020

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