Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHIEFS     16  3  0 542 434  0.106  9.843    1  0.606    1  0.615    7  0.189    1 0.6283   13  1.415    8  0.268   12  0.111
BUCCANEERS 15  5  0 615 433  0.217 11.139    2  0.540    2  0.526    1  0.523    3 0.5939   10  1.471    1  0.683    4  0.364
BILLS      15  4  0 569 440  0.094  9.838    3  0.530    3  0.515    3  0.378    2 0.6138    6  1.545    2  0.648   14  0.107
PACKERS    14  4  0 567 418  0.070  8.988    4  0.482    4  0.465    4  0.342    4 0.5745    8  1.516    3  0.567   11  0.116
SAINTS     13  5  0 523 376  0.158  9.618    5  0.438    5  0.418    2  0.417    5 0.5729   18  1.349    5  0.402    3  0.431
SEAHAWKS   12  5  0 479 401  0.059  8.677    6  0.356    6  0.334    8  0.183    7 0.5538    9  1.515    4  0.408   19 -0.041
RAMS       11  7  0 420 348  0.139  9.702    7  0.271    7  0.227    6  0.212   10 0.5401   28  1.124   22 -0.099    1  0.522
STEELERS   12  5  0 453 360 -0.134  7.366    8  0.267    8  0.221   11  0.063    6 0.5542   20  1.315   17  0.001   10  0.125
RAVENS     12  6  0 491 333 -0.062  8.129    9  0.258    9  0.202    5  0.258    8 0.5515   26  1.174   16  0.009    2  0.506
BROWNS     12  6  0 473 478 -0.136  8.224   10  0.189   10  0.185   19 -0.053    9 0.5434    7  1.543    9  0.214   25 -0.319
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TITANS     11  6  0 504 459 -0.095  7.849   11  0.175   11  0.168   16  0.004   12 0.5352    3  1.599    6  0.358   26 -0.350
DOLPHINS   10  6  0 404 338 -0.054  7.400   12  0.144   12  0.137    9  0.099   11 0.5392   22  1.281   18 -0.009    9  0.207
COLTS      11  6  0 475 389 -0.137  7.392   13  0.136   13  0.127   10  0.086   13 0.5311   15  1.365   12  0.094   15  0.079
RAIDERS     8  8  0 434 478  0.035  8.366   14  0.023   14  0.026   22 -0.105   14 0.5214    1  1.646    7  0.323   30 -0.532
CARDINALS   8  8  0 410 367  0.012  7.989   15 -0.008   15 -0.008   13  0.049   16 0.4886   14  1.385   13  0.084   18  0.014
BEARS       8  9  0 381 391  0.051  8.908   16 -0.022   16 -0.021   17 -0.010   18 0.4847   27  1.171   25 -0.262    7  0.242
PATRIOTS    7  9  0 326 353  0.021  8.325   17 -0.081   17 -0.082   20 -0.095   15 0.4941   29  1.112   28 -0.421    8  0.230
VIKINGS     7  9  0 430 475 -0.000  8.203   18 -0.089   18 -0.091   21 -0.097   19 0.4704    5  1.562   11  0.200   28 -0.393
CHARGERS    7  9  0 384 426 -0.062  7.892   19 -0.118   19 -0.123   23 -0.117   17 0.4863   12  1.416   20 -0.037   23 -0.197
49ERS       6 10  0 376 390  0.115  8.743   20 -0.128   20 -0.132   14  0.021   21 0.4663   17  1.363   15  0.025   17  0.017
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WASHINGTON  7 10  0 358 360 -0.066  8.117   21 -0.175   21 -0.186   15  0.009   22 0.4533   30  1.110   26 -0.319    5  0.337
GIANTS      6 10  0 280 357 -0.037  8.101   22 -0.201   22 -0.201   26 -0.201   24 0.4475   32  1.011   31 -0.646    6  0.245
PANTHERS    5 11  0 350 402  0.151  9.053   23 -0.215   23 -0.214   18 -0.040   23 0.4503   24  1.251   23 -0.189   13  0.109
COWBOYS     6 10  0 395 473 -0.080  7.794   24 -0.229   24 -0.230   24 -0.169   25 0.4379    2  1.612   10  0.206   31 -0.543
BRONCOS     5 11  0 323 446  0.050  8.744   25 -0.246   25 -0.246   28 -0.238   20 0.4666   23  1.276   27 -0.352   21 -0.124
LIONS       5 11  0 377 519  0.014  8.576   26 -0.259   26 -0.260   29 -0.325   27 0.4305    4  1.562   19 -0.028   32 -0.622
FALCONS     4 12  0 396 414  0.141  8.924   27 -0.306   27 -0.328   12  0.053   26 0.4345   16  1.365   14  0.059   16  0.046
EAGLES      4 11  1 334 418 -0.007  8.269   28 -0.312   28 -0.335   25 -0.184   28 0.4235   19  1.332   24 -0.223   22 -0.145
BENGALS     4 11  1 311 424 -0.136  7.666   29 -0.378   29 -0.390   30 -0.367   29 0.4222   25  1.236   29 -0.535   24 -0.199
TEXANS      4 12  0 384 464 -0.122  7.630   30 -0.434   30 -0.453   27 -0.238   30 0.4163   11  1.463   21 -0.091   27 -0.386
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JETS        2 14  0 243 457  0.024  8.841   31 -0.519   31 -0.542   31 -0.433   31 0.4072   31  1.075   32 -0.803   20 -0.064
JAGUARS     1 15  0 306 492 -0.131  7.813   32 -0.697   32 -0.739   32 -0.480   32 0.3553   21  1.306   30 -0.554   29 -0.405

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHIEFS     16  3  0 542 434  0.106  9.843    1  0.606    1  0.615    7  0.189    1 0.6283   13  1.415    8  0.268   12  0.111
RAIDERS     8  8  0 434 478  0.035  8.366   14  0.023   14  0.026   22 -0.105   14 0.5214    1  1.646    7  0.323   30 -0.532
CHARGERS    7  9  0 384 426 -0.062  7.892   19 -0.118   19 -0.123   23 -0.117   17 0.4863   12  1.416   20 -0.037   23 -0.197
BRONCOS     5 11  0 323 446  0.050  8.744   25 -0.246   25 -0.246   28 -0.238   20 0.4666   23  1.276   27 -0.352   21 -0.124

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TITANS     11  6  0 504 459 -0.095  7.849   11  0.175   11  0.168   16  0.004   12 0.5352    3  1.599    6  0.358   26 -0.350
COLTS      11  6  0 475 389 -0.137  7.392   13  0.136   13  0.127   10  0.086   13 0.5311   15  1.365   12  0.094   15  0.079
TEXANS      4 12  0 384 464 -0.122  7.630   30 -0.434   30 -0.453   27 -0.238   30 0.4163   11  1.463   21 -0.091   27 -0.386
JAGUARS     1 15  0 306 492 -0.131  7.813   32 -0.697   32 -0.739   32 -0.480   32 0.3553   21  1.306   30 -0.554   29 -0.405

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
STEELERS   12  5  0 453 360 -0.134  7.366    8  0.267    8  0.221   11  0.063    6 0.5542   20  1.315   17  0.001   10  0.125
RAVENS     12  6  0 491 333 -0.062  8.129    9  0.258    9  0.202    5  0.258    8 0.5515   26  1.174   16  0.009    2  0.506
BROWNS     12  6  0 473 478 -0.136  8.224   10  0.189   10  0.185   19 -0.053    9 0.5434    7  1.543    9  0.214   25 -0.319
BENGALS     4 11  1 311 424 -0.136  7.666   29 -0.378   29 -0.390   30 -0.367   29 0.4222   25  1.236   29 -0.535   24 -0.199

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BILLS      15  4  0 569 440  0.094  9.838    3  0.530    3  0.515    3  0.378    2 0.6138    6  1.545    2  0.648   14  0.107
DOLPHINS   10  6  0 404 338 -0.054  7.400   12  0.144   12  0.137    9  0.099   11 0.5392   22  1.281   18 -0.009    9  0.207
PATRIOTS    7  9  0 326 353  0.021  8.325   17 -0.081   17 -0.082   20 -0.095   15 0.4941   29  1.112   28 -0.421    8  0.230
JETS        2 14  0 243 457  0.024  8.841   31 -0.519   31 -0.542   31 -0.433   31 0.4072   31  1.075   32 -0.803   20 -0.064

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SEAHAWKS   12  5  0 479 401  0.059  8.677    6  0.356    6  0.334    8  0.183    7 0.5538    9  1.515    4  0.408   19 -0.041
RAMS       11  7  0 420 348  0.139  9.702    7  0.271    7  0.227    6  0.212   10 0.5401   28  1.124   22 -0.099    1  0.522
CARDINALS   8  8  0 410 367  0.012  7.989   15 -0.008   15 -0.008   13  0.049   16 0.4886   14  1.385   13  0.084   18  0.014
49ERS       6 10  0 376 390  0.115  8.743   20 -0.128   20 -0.132   14  0.021   21 0.4663   17  1.363   15  0.025   17  0.017

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCCANEERS 15  5  0 615 433  0.217 11.139    2  0.540    2  0.526    1  0.523    3 0.5939   10  1.471    1  0.683    4  0.364
SAINTS     13  5  0 523 376  0.158  9.618    5  0.438    5  0.418    2  0.417    5 0.5729   18  1.349    5  0.402    3  0.431
PANTHERS    5 11  0 350 402  0.151  9.053   23 -0.215   23 -0.214   18 -0.040   23 0.4503   24  1.251   23 -0.189   13  0.109
FALCONS     4 12  0 396 414  0.141  8.924   27 -0.306   27 -0.328   12  0.053   26 0.4345   16  1.365   14  0.059   16  0.046

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PACKERS    14  4  0 567 418  0.070  8.988    4  0.482    4  0.465    4  0.342    4 0.5745    8  1.516    3  0.567   11  0.116
BEARS       8  9  0 381 391  0.051  8.908   16 -0.022   16 -0.021   17 -0.010   18 0.4847   27  1.171   25 -0.262    7  0.242
VIKINGS     7  9  0 430 475 -0.000  8.203   18 -0.089   18 -0.091   21 -0.097   19 0.4704    5  1.562   11  0.200   28 -0.393
LIONS       5 11  0 377 519  0.014  8.576   26 -0.259   26 -0.260   29 -0.325   27 0.4305    4  1.562   19 -0.028   32 -0.622

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WASHINGTON  7 10  0 358 360 -0.066  8.117   21 -0.175   21 -0.186   15  0.009   22 0.4533   30  1.110   26 -0.319    5  0.337
GIANTS      6 10  0 280 357 -0.037  8.101   22 -0.201   22 -0.201   26 -0.201   24 0.4475   32  1.011   31 -0.646    6  0.245
COWBOYS     6 10  0 395 473 -0.080  7.794   24 -0.229   24 -0.230   24 -0.169   25 0.4379    2  1.612   10  0.206   31 -0.543
EAGLES      4 11  1 334 418 -0.007  8.269   28 -0.312   28 -0.335   25 -0.184   28 0.4235   19  1.332   24 -0.223   22 -0.145

DIVISION    W  L  T   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC SOUTH  37 33  0 0.529    1  0.388
NFC WEST   37 30  0 0.552    2  0.266
AFC NORTH  40 28  1 0.587    3 -0.015
NFC NORTH  34 33  0 0.507    4 -0.036
AFC EAST   34 33  0 0.507    5 -0.051
AFC WEST   36 31  0 0.537    6 -0.088
AFC SOUTH  27 39  0 0.409    7 -0.278
NFC EAST   23 41  1 0.362    8 -0.297

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.059 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.006 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri Apr  2 20:24:15 2021
games through: Sun Feb  7 2021

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