Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAMS       16  5  0 567 447  0.125 10.973    1  0.541    1  0.541    3  0.336    1 0.5946    9  1.376    6  0.467    6  0.204
BUCCANEERS 14  5  0 569 398  0.042  9.083    2  0.427    2  0.414    5  0.311    4 0.5650    2  1.480    3  0.591   16  0.030
CHIEFS     14  6  0 588 448  0.099 10.271    3  0.411    3  0.397    2  0.373    3 0.5778    3  1.480    1  0.653   11  0.092
PACKERS    13  5  0 460 384  0.045  8.986    4  0.396    4  0.390    9  0.186    2 0.5807   12  1.340    9  0.267    9  0.106
COWBOYS    12  6  0 547 381  0.047  8.680    5  0.294    5  0.276    4  0.328    5 0.5493    4  1.478    2  0.606   14  0.051
TITANS     12  6  0 435 373  0.025  8.784    6  0.283    6  0.263   11  0.152    9 0.5443   17  1.266   15  0.132    7  0.171
49ERS      12  8  0 480 412  0.138 10.673    7  0.273    7  0.257    7  0.260    6 0.5491   23  1.207   14  0.163    3  0.357
CARDINALS  11  7  0 460 400  0.098  9.349    8  0.256    8  0.229   14  0.043    8 0.5450    6  1.404   11  0.214   24 -0.127
BILLS      12  7  0 566 348  0.084  8.944    9  0.241    9  0.211    1  0.457   10 0.5277   15  1.328    5  0.522    1  0.392
BENGALS    13  8  0 552 458 -0.015 10.001   10  0.213   10  0.180    8  0.203    7 0.5485   10  1.375    7  0.332   13  0.073
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAIDERS    10  8  0 393 465  0.013  9.239   11  0.103   11  0.104   23 -0.154   11 0.5254   13  1.332   18 -0.084   26 -0.225
PATRIOTS   10  8  0 479 350  0.073  8.734   12  0.098   12  0.097    6  0.283   15 0.5013   21  1.242   10  0.232    4  0.333
STEELERS    9  8  1 364 440  0.067  9.585   13  0.082   13  0.082   22 -0.125   12 0.5250   22  1.221   22 -0.204   19 -0.047
CHARGERS    9  8  0 474 459 -0.007  8.336   14  0.056   14  0.038   16  0.014   13 0.5123    1  1.642    4  0.543   32 -0.515
SAINTS      9  8  0 364 335  0.013  8.365   15  0.053   15  0.035   15  0.032   16 0.5007   28  1.111   19 -0.186    5  0.249
COLTS       9  8  0 451 365  0.020  8.121   16  0.051   16  0.034   10  0.166   17 0.5004    8  1.390    8  0.316   17  0.015
DOLPHINS    9  8  0 341 373 -0.111  7.943   17 -0.011   17 -0.011   19 -0.048   21 0.4846   24  1.148   23 -0.220    8  0.123
RAVENS      8  9  0 387 392  0.013  8.494   18 -0.040   19 -0.046   18 -0.030   14 0.5053   18  1.262   17 -0.054   18 -0.005
VIKINGS     8  9  0 425 426  0.026  8.585   19 -0.042   18 -0.042   17 -0.018   18 0.5004    5  1.434   13  0.196   27 -0.231
EAGLES      9  9  0 459 416 -0.042  8.457   20 -0.046   20 -0.048   13  0.046   20 0.4922    7  1.392   12  0.199   22 -0.107
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BROWNS      8  9  0 349 371 -0.018  8.381   21 -0.058   21 -0.061   21 -0.077   19 0.4985   25  1.147   24 -0.250   10  0.096
SEAHAWKS    7 10  0 395 366  0.044  8.650   22 -0.113   23 -0.122   12  0.047   22 0.4817   19  1.253   16  0.011   12  0.084
WASHINGTON  7 10  0 335 434  0.021  8.875   23 -0.121   22 -0.121   24 -0.157   23 0.4731   20  1.251   20 -0.196   23 -0.118
FALCONS     7 10  0 313 459 -0.136  8.291   24 -0.198   24 -0.193   28 -0.348   26 0.4523   16  1.275   26 -0.355   30 -0.341
BRONCOS     7 10  0 335 322 -0.111  7.682   25 -0.220   25 -0.218   20 -0.052   24 0.4666   32  0.937   28 -0.473    2  0.370
BEARS       6 11  0 311 407 -0.008  8.672   26 -0.239   26 -0.238   25 -0.174   25 0.4665   27  1.112   27 -0.391   15  0.043
PANTHERS    5 12  0 304 404 -0.090  8.337   27 -0.367   27 -0.387   27 -0.326   27 0.4221   29  1.101   29 -0.556   21 -0.095
JETS        4 13  0 310 504 -0.064  8.833   28 -0.435   28 -0.449   29 -0.403   31 0.3997   11  1.362   25 -0.291   31 -0.514
GIANTS      4 13  0 258 416 -0.056  8.672   29 -0.442   29 -0.457   31 -0.458   28 0.4181   31  0.954   32 -0.861   20 -0.055
TEXANS      4 13  0 280 452 -0.103  8.686   30 -0.453   30 -0.469   30 -0.408   30 0.4039   26  1.130   30 -0.602   25 -0.214
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIONS       3 13  1 325 467 -0.005  8.726   31 -0.456   31 -0.472   26 -0.271   29 0.4174   14  1.331   21 -0.202   29 -0.339
JAGUARS     3 14  0 253 457 -0.103  8.727   32 -0.533   32 -0.561   32 -0.486   32 0.3881   30  1.095   31 -0.724   28 -0.248
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHIEFS     14  6  0 588 448  0.099 10.271    3  0.411    3  0.397    2  0.373    3 0.5778    3  1.480    1  0.653   11  0.092
RAIDERS    10  8  0 393 465  0.013  9.239   11  0.103   11  0.104   23 -0.154   11 0.5254   13  1.332   18 -0.084   26 -0.225
CHARGERS    9  8  0 474 459 -0.007  8.336   14  0.056   14  0.038   16  0.014   13 0.5123    1  1.642    4  0.543   32 -0.515
BRONCOS     7 10  0 335 322 -0.111  7.682   25 -0.220   25 -0.218   20 -0.052   24 0.4666   32  0.937   28 -0.473    2  0.370

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TITANS     12  6  0 435 373  0.025  8.784    6  0.283    6  0.263   11  0.152    9 0.5443   17  1.266   15  0.132    7  0.171
COLTS       9  8  0 451 365  0.020  8.121   16  0.051   16  0.034   10  0.166   17 0.5004    8  1.390    8  0.316   17  0.015
TEXANS      4 13  0 280 452 -0.103  8.686   30 -0.453   30 -0.469   30 -0.408   30 0.4039   26  1.130   30 -0.602   25 -0.214
JAGUARS     3 14  0 253 457 -0.103  8.727   32 -0.533   32 -0.561   32 -0.486   32 0.3881   30  1.095   31 -0.724   28 -0.248

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BENGALS    13  8  0 552 458 -0.015 10.001   10  0.213   10  0.180    8  0.203    7 0.5485   10  1.375    7  0.332   13  0.073
STEELERS    9  8  1 364 440  0.067  9.585   13  0.082   13  0.082   22 -0.125   12 0.5250   22  1.221   22 -0.204   19 -0.047
RAVENS      8  9  0 387 392  0.013  8.494   18 -0.040   19 -0.046   18 -0.030   14 0.5053   18  1.262   17 -0.054   18 -0.005
BROWNS      8  9  0 349 371 -0.018  8.381   21 -0.058   21 -0.061   21 -0.077   19 0.4985   25  1.147   24 -0.250   10  0.096

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BILLS      12  7  0 566 348  0.084  8.944    9  0.241    9  0.211    1  0.457   10 0.5277   15  1.328    5  0.522    1  0.392
PATRIOTS   10  8  0 479 350  0.073  8.734   12  0.098   12  0.097    6  0.283   15 0.5013   21  1.242   10  0.232    4  0.333
DOLPHINS    9  8  0 341 373 -0.111  7.943   17 -0.011   17 -0.011   19 -0.048   21 0.4846   24  1.148   23 -0.220    8  0.123
JETS        4 13  0 310 504 -0.064  8.833   28 -0.435   28 -0.449   29 -0.403   31 0.3997   11  1.362   25 -0.291   31 -0.514

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAMS       16  5  0 567 447  0.125 10.973    1  0.541    1  0.541    3  0.336    1 0.5946    9  1.376    6  0.467    6  0.204
49ERS      12  8  0 480 412  0.138 10.673    7  0.273    7  0.257    7  0.260    6 0.5491   23  1.207   14  0.163    3  0.357
CARDINALS  11  7  0 460 400  0.098  9.349    8  0.256    8  0.229   14  0.043    8 0.5450    6  1.404   11  0.214   24 -0.127
SEAHAWKS    7 10  0 395 366  0.044  8.650   22 -0.113   23 -0.122   12  0.047   22 0.4817   19  1.253   16  0.011   12  0.084

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCCANEERS 14  5  0 569 398  0.042  9.083    2  0.427    2  0.414    5  0.311    4 0.5650    2  1.480    3  0.591   16  0.030
SAINTS      9  8  0 364 335  0.013  8.365   15  0.053   15  0.035   15  0.032   16 0.5007   28  1.111   19 -0.186    5  0.249
FALCONS     7 10  0 313 459 -0.136  8.291   24 -0.198   24 -0.193   28 -0.348   26 0.4523   16  1.275   26 -0.355   30 -0.341
PANTHERS    5 12  0 304 404 -0.090  8.337   27 -0.367   27 -0.387   27 -0.326   27 0.4221   29  1.101   29 -0.556   21 -0.095

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PACKERS    13  5  0 460 384  0.045  8.986    4  0.396    4  0.390    9  0.186    2 0.5807   12  1.340    9  0.267    9  0.106
VIKINGS     8  9  0 425 426  0.026  8.585   19 -0.042   18 -0.042   17 -0.018   18 0.5004    5  1.434   13  0.196   27 -0.231
BEARS       6 11  0 311 407 -0.008  8.672   26 -0.239   26 -0.238   25 -0.174   25 0.4665   27  1.112   27 -0.391   15  0.043
LIONS       3 13  1 325 467 -0.005  8.726   31 -0.456   31 -0.472   26 -0.271   29 0.4174   14  1.331   21 -0.202   29 -0.339

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COWBOYS    12  6  0 547 381  0.047  8.680    5  0.294    5  0.276    4  0.328    5 0.5493    4  1.478    2  0.606   14  0.051
EAGLES      9  9  0 459 416 -0.042  8.457   20 -0.046   20 -0.048   13  0.046   20 0.4922    7  1.392   12  0.199   22 -0.107
WASHINGTON  7 10  0 335 434  0.021  8.875   23 -0.121   22 -0.121   24 -0.157   23 0.4731   20  1.251   20 -0.196   23 -0.118
GIANTS      4 13  0 258 416 -0.056  8.672   29 -0.442   29 -0.457   31 -0.458   28 0.4181   31  0.954   32 -0.861   20 -0.055

DIVISION    W  L  T   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC WEST   46 30  0 0.605    1  0.311
AFC EAST   35 36  0 0.493    2  0.100
AFC WEST   40 32  0 0.556    3  0.058
AFC NORTH  38 34  1 0.527    4  0.010
NFC EAST   32 38  0 0.457    5 -0.075
NFC SOUTH  35 35  0 0.500    6 -0.113
NFC NORTH  30 38  1 0.442    7 -0.146
AFC SOUTH  28 41  0 0.406    8 -0.269

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.141 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sun Feb 20 15:54:48 2022
games through: Sun Feb 13 2022

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