Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHIEFS     17  3  0 584 444  0.010  9.851    1  0.444    1  0.428    4  0.198    2 0.6016    1  1.532    1  0.608   25 -0.212
EAGLES     16  4  0 581 396 -0.010  9.654    2  0.362    3  0.347    1  0.274    1 0.6031    5  1.447    2  0.558   17 -0.010
BENGALS    14  5  0 489 372  0.178 10.692    3  0.360    2  0.348    2  0.268    4 0.5982   11  1.339    4  0.399   10  0.137
BILLS      14  4  0 499 344  0.087  9.410    4  0.353    4  0.343    5  0.195    3 0.6007    9  1.344    5  0.333   13  0.058
49ERS      15  5  0 517 343 -0.071  9.222    5  0.264    5  0.256    3  0.234    7 0.5563   22  1.141   13  0.105    2  0.364
VIKINGS    13  5  0 448 458 -0.042  8.972    6  0.251    6  0.246   22 -0.075    5 0.5740    3  1.483    8  0.261   32 -0.411
COWBOYS    13  6  0 510 375  0.043  9.574    7  0.243    7  0.219    6  0.176    6 0.5701    8  1.350    6  0.322   15  0.031
RAVENS     10  8  0 367 339  0.131  9.998    8  0.126    8  0.110    9  0.050    9 0.5323   24  1.100   21 -0.130    5  0.230
GIANTS     10  8  1 403 433  0.036 10.053    9  0.083    9  0.072   18 -0.035    8 0.5357   18  1.214   18 -0.072   16  0.002
STEELERS    9  8  0 308 346  0.089  9.365   10  0.081   10  0.071   12  0.014   12 0.5191   29  1.013   24 -0.270    3  0.298
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DOLPHINS    9  9  0 428 433  0.158 10.227   11  0.076   11  0.058   10  0.049   11 0.5230    6  1.438    7  0.319   26 -0.220
LIONS       9  8  0 453 427  0.034  8.875   12  0.048   12  0.036    8  0.069   10 0.5236    2  1.521    3  0.462   30 -0.323
CHARGERS   10  8  0 421 415 -0.096  8.518   13  0.025   13  0.014   14  0.010   17 0.4937   10  1.340   11  0.143   22 -0.122
COMMANDERS  8  8  1 321 343  0.006  8.787   14  0.011   14  0.001   16 -0.015   13 0.5115   28  1.017   25 -0.294    4  0.265
JAGUARS    10  9  0 455 407 -0.051  9.148   15 -0.003   15 -0.016    7  0.072   14 0.5037   13  1.324   10  0.182   19 -0.039
PATRIOTS    8  9  0 364 347  0.056  8.948   16 -0.017   16 -0.027   11  0.046   16 0.4990   21  1.148   19 -0.075    9  0.166
SEAHAWKS    9  9  0 430 442 -0.065  8.791   17 -0.027   17 -0.038   20 -0.043   20 0.4806    4  1.450    9  0.245   31 -0.331
PACKERS     8  9  0 370 371 -0.009  8.662   18 -0.035   18 -0.045   13  0.013   15 0.5024   19  1.211   16 -0.027   14  0.054
JETS        7 10  0 296 316  0.116  9.550   19 -0.040   19 -0.054   21 -0.064   18 0.4889   32  0.867   32 -0.512    1  0.384
BUCCANEERS  8 10  0 327 389  0.002  9.377   20 -0.050   20 -0.064   26 -0.137   21 0.4774   27  1.057   27 -0.369   11  0.095
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BROWNS      7 10  0 361 381  0.069  9.174   21 -0.057   21 -0.079   15 -0.002   19 0.4810   15  1.308   14  0.087   20 -0.090
SAINTS      7 10  0 330 345 -0.050  8.428   22 -0.099   22 -0.123   17 -0.021   23 0.4614   25  1.082   23 -0.223    8  0.181
TITANS      7 10  0 298 359 -0.047  8.624   23 -0.102   23 -0.125   25 -0.112   22 0.4722   30  0.993   30 -0.419    7  0.196
PANTHERS    7 10  0 347 374 -0.078  8.255   24 -0.119   24 -0.143   19 -0.040   24 0.4543   17  1.232   17 -0.053   18 -0.027
FALCONS     7 10  0 365 386 -0.094  8.172   25 -0.122   25 -0.144   23 -0.081   25 0.4515   12  1.326   15  0.032   24 -0.193
RAIDERS     6 11  0 395 418 -0.110  8.133   26 -0.205   26 -0.223   24 -0.094   26 0.4317    7  1.403   12  0.127   28 -0.315
RAMS        5 12  0 307 384 -0.047  8.679   27 -0.242   27 -0.259   27 -0.143   28 0.4205   26  1.066   26 -0.364   12  0.078
BRONCOS     5 12  0 287 359 -0.110  8.221   28 -0.265   28 -0.280   28 -0.145   30 0.4140   31  0.961   31 -0.489    6  0.198
COLTS       4 12  1 289 427 -0.097  8.521   29 -0.295   29 -0.304   32 -0.283   27 0.4225   20  1.154   29 -0.396   23 -0.170
CARDINALS   4 13  0 340 449 -0.058  8.615   30 -0.319   30 -0.327   29 -0.202   31 0.4031   14  1.314   20 -0.105   27 -0.298
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BEARS       3 14  0 326 463  0.032  9.287   31 -0.343   31 -0.349   30 -0.235   29 0.4162   16  1.306   22 -0.149   29 -0.320
TEXANS      3 13  1 289 420 -0.120  8.336   32 -0.386   32 -0.387   31 -0.239   32 0.3959   23  1.133   28 -0.378   21 -0.099

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHIEFS     17  3  0 584 444  0.010  9.851    1  0.444    1  0.428    4  0.198    2 0.6016    1  1.532    1  0.608   25 -0.212
CHARGERS   10  8  0 421 415 -0.096  8.518   13  0.025   13  0.014   14  0.010   17 0.4937   10  1.340   11  0.143   22 -0.122
RAIDERS     6 11  0 395 418 -0.110  8.133   26 -0.205   26 -0.223   24 -0.094   26 0.4317    7  1.403   12  0.127   28 -0.315
BRONCOS     5 12  0 287 359 -0.110  8.221   28 -0.265   28 -0.280   28 -0.145   30 0.4140   31  0.961   31 -0.489    6  0.198

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JAGUARS    10  9  0 455 407 -0.051  9.148   15 -0.003   15 -0.016    7  0.072   14 0.5037   13  1.324   10  0.182   19 -0.039
TITANS      7 10  0 298 359 -0.047  8.624   23 -0.102   23 -0.125   25 -0.112   22 0.4722   30  0.993   30 -0.419    7  0.196
COLTS       4 12  1 289 427 -0.097  8.521   29 -0.295   29 -0.304   32 -0.283   27 0.4225   20  1.154   29 -0.396   23 -0.170
TEXANS      3 13  1 289 420 -0.120  8.336   32 -0.386   32 -0.387   31 -0.239   32 0.3959   23  1.133   28 -0.378   21 -0.099

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BENGALS    14  5  0 489 372  0.178 10.692    3  0.360    2  0.348    2  0.268    4 0.5982   11  1.339    4  0.399   10  0.137
RAVENS     10  8  0 367 339  0.131  9.998    8  0.126    8  0.110    9  0.050    9 0.5323   24  1.100   21 -0.130    5  0.230
STEELERS    9  8  0 308 346  0.089  9.365   10  0.081   10  0.071   12  0.014   12 0.5191   29  1.013   24 -0.270    3  0.298
BROWNS      7 10  0 361 381  0.069  9.174   21 -0.057   21 -0.079   15 -0.002   19 0.4810   15  1.308   14  0.087   20 -0.090

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BILLS      14  4  0 499 344  0.087  9.410    4  0.353    4  0.343    5  0.195    3 0.6007    9  1.344    5  0.333   13  0.058
DOLPHINS    9  9  0 428 433  0.158 10.227   11  0.076   11  0.058   10  0.049   11 0.5230    6  1.438    7  0.319   26 -0.220
PATRIOTS    8  9  0 364 347  0.056  8.948   16 -0.017   16 -0.027   11  0.046   16 0.4990   21  1.148   19 -0.075    9  0.166
JETS        7 10  0 296 316  0.116  9.550   19 -0.040   19 -0.054   21 -0.064   18 0.4889   32  0.867   32 -0.512    1  0.384

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
49ERS      15  5  0 517 343 -0.071  9.222    5  0.264    5  0.256    3  0.234    7 0.5563   22  1.141   13  0.105    2  0.364
SEAHAWKS    9  9  0 430 442 -0.065  8.791   17 -0.027   17 -0.038   20 -0.043   20 0.4806    4  1.450    9  0.245   31 -0.331
RAMS        5 12  0 307 384 -0.047  8.679   27 -0.242   27 -0.259   27 -0.143   28 0.4205   26  1.066   26 -0.364   12  0.078
CARDINALS   4 13  0 340 449 -0.058  8.615   30 -0.319   30 -0.327   29 -0.202   31 0.4031   14  1.314   20 -0.105   27 -0.298

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCCANEERS  8 10  0 327 389  0.002  9.377   20 -0.050   20 -0.064   26 -0.137   21 0.4774   27  1.057   27 -0.369   11  0.095
SAINTS      7 10  0 330 345 -0.050  8.428   22 -0.099   22 -0.123   17 -0.021   23 0.4614   25  1.082   23 -0.223    8  0.181
PANTHERS    7 10  0 347 374 -0.078  8.255   24 -0.119   24 -0.143   19 -0.040   24 0.4543   17  1.232   17 -0.053   18 -0.027
FALCONS     7 10  0 365 386 -0.094  8.172   25 -0.122   25 -0.144   23 -0.081   25 0.4515   12  1.326   15  0.032   24 -0.193

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
VIKINGS    13  5  0 448 458 -0.042  8.972    6  0.251    6  0.246   22 -0.075    5 0.5740    3  1.483    8  0.261   32 -0.411
LIONS       9  8  0 453 427  0.034  8.875   12  0.048   12  0.036    8  0.069   10 0.5236    2  1.521    3  0.462   30 -0.323
PACKERS     8  9  0 370 371 -0.009  8.662   18 -0.035   18 -0.045   13  0.013   15 0.5024   19  1.211   16 -0.027   14  0.054
BEARS       3 14  0 326 463  0.032  9.287   31 -0.343   31 -0.349   30 -0.235   29 0.4162   16  1.306   22 -0.149   29 -0.320

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
EAGLES     16  4  0 581 396 -0.010  9.654    2  0.362    3  0.347    1  0.274    1 0.6031    5  1.447    2  0.558   17 -0.010
COWBOYS    13  6  0 510 375  0.043  9.574    7  0.243    7  0.219    6  0.176    6 0.5701    8  1.350    6  0.322   15  0.031
GIANTS     10  8  1 403 433  0.036 10.053    9  0.083    9  0.072   18 -0.035    8 0.5357   18  1.214   18 -0.072   16  0.002
COMMANDERS  8  8  1 321 343  0.006  8.787   14  0.011   14  0.001   16 -0.015   13 0.5115   28  1.017   25 -0.294    4  0.265

DIVISION    W  L  T   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC EAST   47 26  2 0.640    1  0.248
AFC EAST   38 32  0 0.543    2  0.246
AFC NORTH  40 31  0 0.563    3  0.204
AFC WEST   38 34  0 0.528    4 -0.058
NFC WEST   33 39  0 0.458    5 -0.116
NFC NORTH  33 36  0 0.478    6 -0.132
NFC SOUTH  29 40  0 0.420    7 -0.169
AFC SOUTH  24 44  2 0.357    8 -0.363

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.164 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.022 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Apr  4 19:02:03 2023
games through: Sun Feb 12 2023

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