Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAVENS     14  5 527 307  0.114  9.852    1  0.436    2  0.402    1  0.463    1 0.6014   21  1.171    5  0.384    2  0.542
CHIEFS     15  6 466 357  0.125 11.183    2  0.431    1  0.407    3  0.304    3 0.5734   27  1.007   17  0.027    1  0.582
LIONS      14  6 547 475  0.147 10.842    3  0.417    3  0.392    6  0.208    4 0.5622    2  1.555    1  0.666   27 -0.250
49ERS      14  6 571 375  0.089 10.152    4  0.382    4  0.342    2  0.343    2 0.5794    8  1.343    3  0.493    6  0.194
BROWNS     11  7 410 407  0.070  9.461    5  0.235    5  0.213   18 -0.018    5 0.5581   10  1.338   12  0.125   24 -0.160
COWBOYS    12  6 541 363 -0.107  7.632    6  0.181    6  0.156    5  0.209    9 0.5348    6  1.404    4  0.444   17 -0.026
BILLS      12  7 506 355 -0.071  8.549    7  0.161    9  0.132    4  0.240   10 0.5325   11  1.334    6  0.377    9  0.102
STEELERS   10  8 321 355  0.100  9.855    8  0.145    7  0.138   16  0.004    7 0.5414   28  0.992   27 -0.291    4  0.299
EAGLES     11  7 442 460 -0.072  8.715    9  0.141    8  0.132   26 -0.189   11 0.5287    3  1.525    9  0.223   31 -0.602
BENGALS     9  8 366 384  0.143  9.542   10  0.129   10  0.124   13  0.033    6 0.5416   15  1.283   14  0.101   18 -0.035
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAMS       10  8 427 401  0.076  9.436   11  0.126   11  0.119   10  0.097    8 0.5364   18  1.257   11  0.129   14  0.064
DOLPHINS   11  7 503 417 -0.068  8.248   12  0.118   12  0.109   11  0.065   14 0.5199    1  1.593    2  0.582   30 -0.451
TEXANS     11  8 432 401 -0.030  9.231   13  0.095   13  0.086   12  0.038   12 0.5277   13  1.289   13  0.114   19 -0.037
JAGUARS     9  8 377 371  0.082  9.046   14  0.091   14  0.083   15  0.015   13 0.5209   16  1.279   16  0.077   20 -0.047
PACKERS    10  9 452 406  0.087 10.049   15  0.088   15  0.079    7  0.181   17 0.5059    7  1.359    7  0.353   16  0.009
SEAHAWKS    9  8 364 402 -0.026  8.584   16  0.048   16  0.039   23 -0.100   15 0.5196   19  1.255   20 -0.069   23 -0.131
BUCCANEERS 10  9 403 365  0.026  9.580   17  0.046   17  0.037    9  0.126   18 0.5009   24  1.075   21 -0.071    3  0.323
COLTS       9  8 396 415 -0.056  8.233   18  0.024   18  0.020   21 -0.088   16 0.5073    4  1.473    8  0.247   29 -0.424
SAINTS      9  8 402 327 -0.102  7.664   19 -0.009   19 -0.033    8  0.139   19 0.4831   17  1.271   10  0.190   11  0.087
RAIDERS     8  9 332 331 -0.027  8.435   20 -0.038   20 -0.061   14  0.024   20 0.4826   25  1.057   25 -0.194    5  0.243
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRONCOS     8  9 357 413 -0.019  8.599   21 -0.063   21 -0.071   20 -0.059   21 0.4825    9  1.341   15  0.088   26 -0.206
VIKINGS     7 10 344 362  0.076  9.082   22 -0.085   22 -0.091   19 -0.019   22 0.4699   23  1.143   23 -0.132   10  0.095
BEARS       7 10 360 379 -0.020  8.523   23 -0.150   23 -0.151   17  0.000   25 0.4567   20  1.220   18 -0.015   15  0.016
JETS        7 10 268 355 -0.140  8.108   24 -0.198   24 -0.201   28 -0.264   23 0.4598   31  0.867   30 -0.698    7  0.171
FALCONS     7 10 321 373 -0.145  7.834   25 -0.202   25 -0.218   25 -0.185   27 0.4432   22  1.155   26 -0.283   22 -0.087
TITANS      6 11 305 367 -0.014  8.704   26 -0.208   26 -0.228   24 -0.174   24 0.4571   26  1.021   28 -0.435   12  0.087
GIANTS      6 11 266 407 -0.153  8.320   27 -0.260   28 -0.282   29 -0.264   26 0.4461   29  0.947   29 -0.610   13  0.082
CHARGERS    5 12 346 398  0.073  9.132   28 -0.261   27 -0.281   22 -0.091   28 0.4351   14  1.286   19 -0.018   25 -0.163
CARDINALS   4 13 330 455 -0.008  8.997   29 -0.374   29 -0.396   27 -0.226   29 0.4337   12  1.319   22 -0.109   28 -0.343
PATRIOTS    4 13 236 366 -0.131  8.307   30 -0.431   30 -0.455   30 -0.337   30 0.4073   32  0.822   32 -0.819    8  0.145
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COMMANDERS  4 13 329 518 -0.179  8.067   31 -0.456   31 -0.482   32 -0.455   31 0.4063    5  1.426   24 -0.189   32 -0.721
PANTHERS    2 15 236 416 -0.000  9.049   32 -0.557   32 -0.585   31 -0.414   32 0.3697   30  0.933   31 -0.776   21 -0.052

AFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHIEFS     15  6 466 357  0.125 11.183    2  0.431    1  0.407    3  0.304    3 0.5734   27  1.007   17  0.027    1  0.582
RAIDERS     8  9 332 331 -0.027  8.435   20 -0.038   20 -0.061   14  0.024   20 0.4826   25  1.057   25 -0.194    5  0.243
BRONCOS     8  9 357 413 -0.019  8.599   21 -0.063   21 -0.071   20 -0.059   21 0.4825    9  1.341   15  0.088   26 -0.206
CHARGERS    5 12 346 398  0.073  9.132   28 -0.261   27 -0.281   22 -0.091   28 0.4351   14  1.286   19 -0.018   25 -0.163

AFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEXANS     11  8 432 401 -0.030  9.231   13  0.095   13  0.086   12  0.038   12 0.5277   13  1.289   13  0.114   19 -0.037
JAGUARS     9  8 377 371  0.082  9.046   14  0.091   14  0.083   15  0.015   13 0.5209   16  1.279   16  0.077   20 -0.047
COLTS       9  8 396 415 -0.056  8.233   18  0.024   18  0.020   21 -0.088   16 0.5073    4  1.473    8  0.247   29 -0.424
TITANS      6 11 305 367 -0.014  8.704   26 -0.208   26 -0.228   24 -0.174   24 0.4571   26  1.021   28 -0.435   12  0.087

AFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAVENS     14  5 527 307  0.114  9.852    1  0.436    2  0.402    1  0.463    1 0.6014   21  1.171    5  0.384    2  0.542
BROWNS     11  7 410 407  0.070  9.461    5  0.235    5  0.213   18 -0.018    5 0.5581   10  1.338   12  0.125   24 -0.160
STEELERS   10  8 321 355  0.100  9.855    8  0.145    7  0.138   16  0.004    7 0.5414   28  0.992   27 -0.291    4  0.299
BENGALS     9  8 366 384  0.143  9.542   10  0.129   10  0.124   13  0.033    6 0.5416   15  1.283   14  0.101   18 -0.035

AFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BILLS      12  7 506 355 -0.071  8.549    7  0.161    9  0.132    4  0.240   10 0.5325   11  1.334    6  0.377    9  0.102
DOLPHINS   11  7 503 417 -0.068  8.248   12  0.118   12  0.109   11  0.065   14 0.5199    1  1.593    2  0.582   30 -0.451
JETS        7 10 268 355 -0.140  8.108   24 -0.198   24 -0.201   28 -0.264   23 0.4598   31  0.867   30 -0.698    7  0.171
PATRIOTS    4 13 236 366 -0.131  8.307   30 -0.431   30 -0.455   30 -0.337   30 0.4073   32  0.822   32 -0.819    8  0.145

NFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
49ERS      14  6 571 375  0.089 10.152    4  0.382    4  0.342    2  0.343    2 0.5794    8  1.343    3  0.493    6  0.194
RAMS       10  8 427 401  0.076  9.436   11  0.126   11  0.119   10  0.097    8 0.5364   18  1.257   11  0.129   14  0.064
SEAHAWKS    9  8 364 402 -0.026  8.584   16  0.048   16  0.039   23 -0.100   15 0.5196   19  1.255   20 -0.069   23 -0.131
CARDINALS   4 13 330 455 -0.008  8.997   29 -0.374   29 -0.396   27 -0.226   29 0.4337   12  1.319   22 -0.109   28 -0.343

NFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCCANEERS 10  9 403 365  0.026  9.580   17  0.046   17  0.037    9  0.126   18 0.5009   24  1.075   21 -0.071    3  0.323
SAINTS      9  8 402 327 -0.102  7.664   19 -0.009   19 -0.033    8  0.139   19 0.4831   17  1.271   10  0.190   11  0.087
FALCONS     7 10 321 373 -0.145  7.834   25 -0.202   25 -0.218   25 -0.185   27 0.4432   22  1.155   26 -0.283   22 -0.087
PANTHERS    2 15 236 416 -0.000  9.049   32 -0.557   32 -0.585   31 -0.414   32 0.3697   30  0.933   31 -0.776   21 -0.052

NFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIONS      14  6 547 475  0.147 10.842    3  0.417    3  0.392    6  0.208    4 0.5622    2  1.555    1  0.666   27 -0.250
PACKERS    10  9 452 406  0.087 10.049   15  0.088   15  0.079    7  0.181   17 0.5059    7  1.359    7  0.353   16  0.009
VIKINGS     7 10 344 362  0.076  9.082   22 -0.085   22 -0.091   19 -0.019   22 0.4699   23  1.143   23 -0.132   10  0.095
BEARS       7 10 360 379 -0.020  8.523   23 -0.150   23 -0.151   17  0.000   25 0.4567   20  1.220   18 -0.015   15  0.016

NFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COWBOYS    12  6 541 363 -0.107  7.632    6  0.181    6  0.156    5  0.209    9 0.5348    6  1.404    4  0.444   17 -0.026
EAGLES     11  7 442 460 -0.072  8.715    9  0.141    8  0.132   26 -0.189   11 0.5287    3  1.525    9  0.223   31 -0.602
GIANTS      6 11 266 407 -0.153  8.320   27 -0.260   28 -0.282   29 -0.264   26 0.4461   29  0.947   29 -0.610   13  0.082
COMMANDERS  4 13 329 518 -0.179  8.067   31 -0.456   31 -0.482   32 -0.455   31 0.4063    5  1.426   24 -0.189   32 -0.721

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC NORTH  44 28 0.611    1  0.246
NFC NORTH  38 35 0.521    2  0.146
NFC WEST   37 35 0.514    3  0.054
AFC WEST   36 36 0.500    4  0.044
AFC SOUTH  35 35 0.500    5 -0.048
AFC EAST   34 37 0.479    6 -0.134
NFC SOUTH  28 42 0.400    7 -0.182
NFC EAST   33 37 0.471    8 -0.315

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.188 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.020 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Feb 13 19:27:24 2024
games through: Sun Feb 11 2024

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