Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RED WINGS    66 28 10 319 231  0.057 53.346    1  0.380    1  0.370    1  0.355    1 0.5494   15  0.945    2  0.380    2  0.331
AVALANCHE    55 39  8 263 224  0.079 53.422    2  0.220    2  0.194    5  0.189    2 0.5264   28  0.751   16  0.004    1  0.374
SHARKS       51 34  8 279 227  0.032 46.991    3  0.207    3  0.181    3  0.193    3 0.5250    6  1.057    3  0.348   14  0.039
BLUES        48 36  7 248 204  0.057 46.853    4  0.179    4  0.156    2  0.200    4 0.5218   23  0.829   11  0.097    3  0.303
MAPLE LEAFS  53 38 10 289 251 -0.010 49.422    5  0.128    5  0.119    7  0.130    6 0.5162    8  0.964    5  0.176   11  0.083
CANUCKS      44 36  7 266 228  0.060 44.885    6  0.126    6  0.116    4  0.192    5 0.5168    2  1.127    1  0.432   20 -0.048
BLACKHAWKS   41 32 13 216 216  0.038 43.899    7  0.119    7  0.116   15  0.039    7 0.5156   18  0.906   13  0.019   12  0.059
KINGS        43 35 10 225 204  0.041 44.894    8  0.107    8  0.104    9  0.110    8 0.5146   24  0.828   15  0.005    6  0.215
OILERS       38 31 12 205 181  0.025 40.761    9  0.093    9  0.090    8  0.121    9 0.5123   26  0.781   18 -0.034    5  0.275
COYOTES      41 37  8 233 221  0.039 43.841   10  0.067   10  0.068   12  0.075   11 0.5086   12  0.958   10  0.114   15  0.037
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ISLANDERS    45 36  8 260 242 -0.023 43.231   11  0.062   11  0.065   14  0.041   10 0.5097    5  1.092    4  0.239   22 -0.156
SENATORS     45 38  9 263 216 -0.012 44.901   12  0.054   12  0.051    6  0.175   13 0.5075   17  0.917    6  0.168    8  0.182
FLYERS       42 34 10 231 201 -0.028 41.534   13  0.047   13  0.049   10  0.082   14 0.5074   22  0.856   14  0.007    9  0.156
STARS        36 33 13 215 213  0.022 41.336   14  0.043   14  0.047   16  0.023   16 0.5061   14  0.953   12  0.056   17 -0.010
BRUINS       44 37  6 250 219 -0.041 41.569   15  0.036   16  0.037   11  0.076   17 0.5052   10  0.961    9  0.119   16  0.033
DEVILS       43 36  9 216 196 -0.035 42.316   16  0.034   17  0.037   13  0.048   15 0.5065   29  0.700   25 -0.188    4  0.285
HURRICANES   48 41 16 264 260 -0.007 51.828   17  0.030   15  0.042   18 -0.000   12 0.5075   25  0.808   23 -0.127   10  0.126
CANADIENS    41 40 12 233 244 -0.036 44.865   18 -0.007   18 -0.016   19 -0.048   18 0.4974   19  0.903   20 -0.071   18 -0.026
SABRES       35 35 11 212 198 -0.029 39.207   19 -0.013   19 -0.027   17  0.013   19 0.4967   20  0.893   17 -0.021   13  0.047
CAPITALS     36 35 11 228 240 -0.057 38.965   20 -0.022   20 -0.034   22 -0.086   20 0.4953    4  1.112    8  0.135   26 -0.307
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
FLAMES       31 38 12 200 220  0.023 41.054   21 -0.036   21 -0.051   20 -0.074   21 0.4912   13  0.954   19 -0.039   21 -0.109
RANGERS      36 42  4 227 258 -0.039 39.699   22 -0.080   22 -0.092   25 -0.186   22 0.4871    1  1.199    7  0.145   29 -0.517
PREDATORS    28 41 13 196 230  0.032 41.943   23 -0.100   23 -0.110   23 -0.125   23 0.4835   11  0.958   21 -0.086   23 -0.164
DUCKS        29 44  8 173 194  0.018 40.899   24 -0.138   24 -0.143   21 -0.078   24 0.4791   30  0.664   28 -0.351    7  0.194
WILD         26 44 12 195 238  0.033 41.990   25 -0.161   25 -0.160   24 -0.138   25 0.4764    9  0.962   22 -0.095   24 -0.181
PENGUINS     28 45  8 197 246 -0.039 39.296   26 -0.207   26 -0.206   27 -0.240   26 0.4704    7  1.001   24 -0.152   28 -0.329
LIGHTNING    27 44 11 178 219 -0.053 39.269   27 -0.211   27 -0.211   26 -0.206   27 0.4696   27  0.770   29 -0.372   19 -0.040
BLUE JACKETS 22 52  7 161 252  0.035 41.838   28 -0.275   28 -0.296   29 -0.340   28 0.4587   21  0.862   30 -0.407   25 -0.272
PANTHERS     22 49 10 178 245 -0.056 38.884   29 -0.294   29 -0.319   28 -0.319   29 0.4542   16  0.924   27 -0.318   27 -0.320
THRASHERS    18 52 11 185 287 -0.049 39.258   30 -0.388   30 -0.395   30 -0.446   30 0.4443    3  1.119   26 -0.216   30 -0.675
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SHARKS       51 34  8 279 227  0.032 46.991    3  0.207    3  0.181    3  0.193    3 0.5250    6  1.057    3  0.348   14  0.039
KINGS        43 35 10 225 204  0.041 44.894    8  0.107    8  0.104    9  0.110    8 0.5146   24  0.828   15  0.005    6  0.215
COYOTES      41 37  8 233 221  0.039 43.841   10  0.067   10  0.068   12  0.075   11 0.5086   12  0.958   10  0.114   15  0.037
STARS        36 33 13 215 213  0.022 41.336   14  0.043   14  0.047   16  0.023   16 0.5061   14  0.953   12  0.056   17 -0.010
DUCKS        29 44  8 173 194  0.018 40.899   24 -0.138   24 -0.143   21 -0.078   24 0.4791   30  0.664   28 -0.351    7  0.194

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
AVALANCHE    55 39  8 263 224  0.079 53.422    2  0.220    2  0.194    5  0.189    2 0.5264   28  0.751   16  0.004    1  0.374
CANUCKS      44 36  7 266 228  0.060 44.885    6  0.126    6  0.116    4  0.192    5 0.5168    2  1.127    1  0.432   20 -0.048
OILERS       38 31 12 205 181  0.025 40.761    9  0.093    9  0.090    8  0.121    9 0.5123   26  0.781   18 -0.034    5  0.275
FLAMES       31 38 12 200 220  0.023 41.054   21 -0.036   21 -0.051   20 -0.074   21 0.4912   13  0.954   19 -0.039   21 -0.109
WILD         26 44 12 195 238  0.033 41.990   25 -0.161   25 -0.160   24 -0.138   25 0.4764    9  0.962   22 -0.095   24 -0.181

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RED WINGS    66 28 10 319 231  0.057 53.346    1  0.380    1  0.370    1  0.355    1 0.5494   15  0.945    2  0.380    2  0.331
BLUES        48 36  7 248 204  0.057 46.853    4  0.179    4  0.156    2  0.200    4 0.5218   23  0.829   11  0.097    3  0.303
BLACKHAWKS   41 32 13 216 216  0.038 43.899    7  0.119    7  0.116   15  0.039    7 0.5156   18  0.906   13  0.019   12  0.059
PREDATORS    28 41 13 196 230  0.032 41.943   23 -0.100   23 -0.110   23 -0.125   23 0.4835   11  0.958   21 -0.086   23 -0.164
BLUE JACKETS 22 52  7 161 252  0.035 41.838   28 -0.275   28 -0.296   29 -0.340   28 0.4587   21  0.862   30 -0.407   25 -0.272

NORTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAPLE LEAFS  53 38 10 289 251 -0.010 49.422    5  0.128    5  0.119    7  0.130    6 0.5162    8  0.964    5  0.176   11  0.083
SENATORS     45 38  9 263 216 -0.012 44.901   12  0.054   12  0.051    6  0.175   13 0.5075   17  0.917    6  0.168    8  0.182
BRUINS       44 37  6 250 219 -0.041 41.569   15  0.036   16  0.037   11  0.076   17 0.5052   10  0.961    9  0.119   16  0.033
CANADIENS    41 40 12 233 244 -0.036 44.865   18 -0.007   18 -0.016   19 -0.048   18 0.4974   19  0.903   20 -0.071   18 -0.026
SABRES       35 35 11 212 198 -0.029 39.207   19 -0.013   19 -0.027   17  0.013   19 0.4967   20  0.893   17 -0.021   13  0.047

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ISLANDERS    45 36  8 260 242 -0.023 43.231   11  0.062   11  0.065   14  0.041   10 0.5097    5  1.092    4  0.239   22 -0.156
FLYERS       42 34 10 231 201 -0.028 41.534   13  0.047   13  0.049   10  0.082   14 0.5074   22  0.856   14  0.007    9  0.156
DEVILS       43 36  9 216 196 -0.035 42.316   16  0.034   17  0.037   13  0.048   15 0.5065   29  0.700   25 -0.188    4  0.285
RANGERS      36 42  4 227 258 -0.039 39.699   22 -0.080   22 -0.092   25 -0.186   22 0.4871    1  1.199    7  0.145   29 -0.517
PENGUINS     28 45  8 197 246 -0.039 39.296   26 -0.207   26 -0.206   27 -0.240   26 0.4704    7  1.001   24 -0.152   28 -0.329

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HURRICANES   48 41 16 264 260 -0.007 51.828   17  0.030   15  0.042   18 -0.000   12 0.5075   25  0.808   23 -0.127   10  0.126
CAPITALS     36 35 11 228 240 -0.057 38.965   20 -0.022   20 -0.034   22 -0.086   20 0.4953    4  1.112    8  0.135   26 -0.307
LIGHTNING    27 44 11 178 219 -0.053 39.269   27 -0.211   27 -0.211   26 -0.206   27 0.4696   27  0.770   29 -0.372   19 -0.040
PANTHERS     22 49 10 178 245 -0.056 38.884   29 -0.294   29 -0.319   28 -0.319   29 0.4542   16  0.924   27 -0.318   27 -0.320
THRASHERS    18 52 11 185 287 -0.049 39.258   30 -0.388   30 -0.395   30 -0.446   30 0.4443    3  1.119   26 -0.216   30 -0.675

DIVISION             W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHEAST DIVISION 218 188  48 0.533    1  0.088
PACIFIC DIVISION   200 183  47 0.520    2  0.084
NORTHWEST DIVISION 194 188  51 0.507    3  0.075
CENTRAL DIVISION   205 189  50 0.518    4  0.031
ATLANTIC DIVISION  194 193  39 0.501    5 -0.063
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 151 221  59 0.419    6 -0.269

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.128 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:00:09 2024
games through: Thu Jun 13 2002

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