Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
OTTAWA         63 29  8 306 216 -0.008 49.971    1  0.289    1  0.294    2  0.278    1 0.5408   18  0.937    5  0.288    6  0.268
DALLAS         52 27 15 279 194  0.017 47.935    2  0.255    2  0.239    1  0.332    2 0.5334   22  0.833    7  0.228    2  0.437
NEW JERSEY     62 34 10 279 207 -0.011 52.912    3  0.244    3  0.221    3  0.258    3 0.5324   30  0.620   18 -0.063    1  0.578
DETROIT        48 28 10 275 213  0.024 44.267    4  0.233    4  0.211    5  0.217    4 0.5299    6  1.086    1  0.401    9  0.033
VANCOUVER      52 31 13 298 255  0.036 49.997    5  0.230    5  0.206    8  0.145    5 0.5292    3  1.144    2  0.400   18 -0.111
ANAHEIM        55 39  9 248 233  0.076 55.271    6  0.212    6  0.184    9  0.114    6 0.5249   26  0.696   23 -0.132    4  0.361
PHILADELPHIA   51 31 13 245 199 -0.019 47.330    7  0.186    7  0.161    7  0.151    7 0.5247   29  0.662   22 -0.129    3  0.430
COLORADO       45 31 13 268 210  0.025 45.772    8  0.166    8  0.144    4  0.252    8 0.5214   15  0.960    4  0.288    7  0.217
MINNESOTA      50 40 10 241 221  0.063 53.232    9  0.125    9  0.130   10  0.081    9 0.5177   28  0.667   24 -0.194    5  0.357
ST LOUIS       44 34 11 274 239  0.028 46.020   10  0.110   10  0.115    6  0.165   10 0.5161    5  1.098    3  0.364   13 -0.035
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TORONTO        47 35  7 252 232 -0.026 44.282   11  0.075   11  0.087   11  0.039   11 0.5148   10  1.007   10  0.129   15 -0.051
EDMONTON       38 39 11 242 250  0.053 46.602   12  0.018   12  0.023   12  0.019   13 0.5028    7  1.046    8  0.155   19 -0.116
TAMPA BAY      41 36 16 241 239 -0.039 45.838   13  0.007   13  0.006   13  0.002   12 0.5030   19  0.915   15 -0.014   10  0.017
WASHINGTON     41 39  8 239 234 -0.054 42.892   14 -0.012   14 -0.023   14 -0.024   14 0.4979   14  0.968   13  0.020   17 -0.069
BOSTON         37 39 11 253 250 -0.025 43.465   15 -0.023   15 -0.037   16 -0.043   15 0.4950    2  1.156    6  0.228   27 -0.314
N.Y. ISLANDERS 36 40 11 231 244 -0.021 43.710   16 -0.037   16 -0.053   21 -0.102   16 0.4932    9  1.023   14  0.007   26 -0.211
PHOENIX        31 40 11 204 230  0.017 42.459   17 -0.061   17 -0.076   20 -0.100   18 0.4873   16  0.951   20 -0.075   21 -0.125
CHICAGO        30 39 13 207 226  0.017 42.348   18 -0.070   20 -0.089   15 -0.038   17 0.4874   17  0.940   16 -0.025   14 -0.050
CALGARY        29 40 13 186 228  0.036 43.109   19 -0.071   18 -0.086   24 -0.142   20 0.4864   21  0.849   26 -0.230   16 -0.055
LOS ANGELES    33 43  6 203 221  0.021 42.523   20 -0.072   19 -0.088   17 -0.065   19 0.4864   20  0.887   21 -0.111   11 -0.020
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
N.Y. RANGERS   32 40 10 210 231 -0.047 40.352   21 -0.097   21 -0.110   22 -0.108   21 0.4841   11  0.996   17 -0.030   23 -0.185
NASHVILLE      27 42 13 183 206  0.029 42.828   22 -0.125   22 -0.132   19 -0.095   22 0.4799   27  0.695   28 -0.342    8  0.152
COLUMBUS       29 45  8 213 263  0.021 42.666   23 -0.154   23 -0.152   26 -0.170   23 0.4773    4  1.141   11  0.082   29 -0.423
SAN JOSE       28 45  9 214 239  0.024 42.614   24 -0.161   24 -0.163   18 -0.070   24 0.4764    8  1.036   12  0.054   24 -0.194
ATLANTA        31 44  7 226 284 -0.051 40.532   25 -0.166   25 -0.166   28 -0.279   25 0.4763    1  1.275    9  0.145   30 -0.703
MONTREAL       30 44  8 206 234 -0.041 40.590   26 -0.170   26 -0.177   23 -0.128   26 0.4762   13  0.976   19 -0.074   22 -0.182
BUFFALO        27 45 10 190 219 -0.039 40.694   27 -0.201   27 -0.212   25 -0.151   27 0.4705   25  0.815   27 -0.275   12 -0.027
FLORIDA        24 45 13 176 237 -0.039 40.853   28 -0.220   28 -0.233   27 -0.246   28 0.4662   24  0.816   29 -0.368   20 -0.123
PITTSBURGH     27 49  6 189 255 -0.041 40.857   29 -0.237   29 -0.257   29 -0.298   29 0.4639   12  0.993   25 -0.224   28 -0.372
CAROLINA       22 49 11 171 240 -0.048 40.652   30 -0.275   30 -0.308   30 -0.317   30 0.4564   23  0.828   30 -0.428   25 -0.207
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DALLAS         52 27 15 279 194  0.017 47.935    2  0.255    2  0.239    1  0.332    2 0.5334   22  0.833    7  0.228    2  0.437
ANAHEIM        55 39  9 248 233  0.076 55.271    6  0.212    6  0.184    9  0.114    6 0.5249   26  0.696   23 -0.132    4  0.361
PHOENIX        31 40 11 204 230  0.017 42.459   17 -0.061   17 -0.076   20 -0.100   18 0.4873   16  0.951   20 -0.075   21 -0.125
LOS ANGELES    33 43  6 203 221  0.021 42.523   20 -0.072   19 -0.088   17 -0.065   19 0.4864   20  0.887   21 -0.111   11 -0.020
SAN JOSE       28 45  9 214 239  0.024 42.614   24 -0.161   24 -0.163   18 -0.070   24 0.4764    8  1.036   12  0.054   24 -0.194

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
VANCOUVER      52 31 13 298 255  0.036 49.997    5  0.230    5  0.206    8  0.145    5 0.5292    3  1.144    2  0.400   18 -0.111
COLORADO       45 31 13 268 210  0.025 45.772    8  0.166    8  0.144    4  0.252    8 0.5214   15  0.960    4  0.288    7  0.217
MINNESOTA      50 40 10 241 221  0.063 53.232    9  0.125    9  0.130   10  0.081    9 0.5177   28  0.667   24 -0.194    5  0.357
EDMONTON       38 39 11 242 250  0.053 46.602   12  0.018   12  0.023   12  0.019   13 0.5028    7  1.046    8  0.155   19 -0.116
CALGARY        29 40 13 186 228  0.036 43.109   19 -0.071   18 -0.086   24 -0.142   20 0.4864   21  0.849   26 -0.230   16 -0.055

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT        48 28 10 275 213  0.024 44.267    4  0.233    4  0.211    5  0.217    4 0.5299    6  1.086    1  0.401    9  0.033
ST LOUIS       44 34 11 274 239  0.028 46.020   10  0.110   10  0.115    6  0.165   10 0.5161    5  1.098    3  0.364   13 -0.035
CHICAGO        30 39 13 207 226  0.017 42.348   18 -0.070   20 -0.089   15 -0.038   17 0.4874   17  0.940   16 -0.025   14 -0.050
NASHVILLE      27 42 13 183 206  0.029 42.828   22 -0.125   22 -0.132   19 -0.095   22 0.4799   27  0.695   28 -0.342    8  0.152
COLUMBUS       29 45  8 213 263  0.021 42.666   23 -0.154   23 -0.152   26 -0.170   23 0.4773    4  1.141   11  0.082   29 -0.423

NORTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
OTTAWA         63 29  8 306 216 -0.008 49.971    1  0.289    1  0.294    2  0.278    1 0.5408   18  0.937    5  0.288    6  0.268
TORONTO        47 35  7 252 232 -0.026 44.282   11  0.075   11  0.087   11  0.039   11 0.5148   10  1.007   10  0.129   15 -0.051
BOSTON         37 39 11 253 250 -0.025 43.465   15 -0.023   15 -0.037   16 -0.043   15 0.4950    2  1.156    6  0.228   27 -0.314
MONTREAL       30 44  8 206 234 -0.041 40.590   26 -0.170   26 -0.177   23 -0.128   26 0.4762   13  0.976   19 -0.074   22 -0.182
BUFFALO        27 45 10 190 219 -0.039 40.694   27 -0.201   27 -0.212   25 -0.151   27 0.4705   25  0.815   27 -0.275   12 -0.027

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW JERSEY     62 34 10 279 207 -0.011 52.912    3  0.244    3  0.221    3  0.258    3 0.5324   30  0.620   18 -0.063    1  0.578
PHILADELPHIA   51 31 13 245 199 -0.019 47.330    7  0.186    7  0.161    7  0.151    7 0.5247   29  0.662   22 -0.129    3  0.430
N.Y. ISLANDERS 36 40 11 231 244 -0.021 43.710   16 -0.037   16 -0.053   21 -0.102   16 0.4932    9  1.023   14  0.007   26 -0.211
N.Y. RANGERS   32 40 10 210 231 -0.047 40.352   21 -0.097   21 -0.110   22 -0.108   21 0.4841   11  0.996   17 -0.030   23 -0.185
PITTSBURGH     27 49  6 189 255 -0.041 40.857   29 -0.237   29 -0.257   29 -0.298   29 0.4639   12  0.993   25 -0.224   28 -0.372

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TAMPA BAY      41 36 16 241 239 -0.039 45.838   13  0.007   13  0.006   13  0.002   12 0.5030   19  0.915   15 -0.014   10  0.017
WASHINGTON     41 39  8 239 234 -0.054 42.892   14 -0.012   14 -0.023   14 -0.024   14 0.4979   14  0.968   13  0.020   17 -0.069
ATLANTA        31 44  7 226 284 -0.051 40.532   25 -0.166   25 -0.166   28 -0.279   25 0.4763    1  1.275    9  0.145   30 -0.703
FLORIDA        24 45 13 176 237 -0.039 40.853   28 -0.220   28 -0.233   27 -0.246   28 0.4662   24  0.816   29 -0.368   20 -0.123
CAROLINA       22 49 11 171 240 -0.048 40.652   30 -0.275   30 -0.308   30 -0.317   30 0.4564   23  0.828   30 -0.428   25 -0.207

DIVISION             W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHWEST DIVISION 214 181  60 0.536    1  0.093
PACIFIC DIVISION   199 194  50 0.506    2  0.053
CENTRAL DIVISION   178 188  55 0.488    3  0.023
NORTHEAST DIVISION 204 192  44 0.514    4 -0.002
ATLANTIC DIVISION  208 194  50 0.515    5 -0.027
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 159 213  55 0.437    6 -0.221

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.113 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.012 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:00:37 2024
games through: Mon Jun  9 2003

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