Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TAMPA BAY      62 35  8 305 235  0.003 52.235    1  0.250    1  0.231    3  0.216    1 0.5309   17  0.912    5  0.234    6  0.197
DETROIT        54 29 11 279 209 -0.027 45.595    2  0.230    2  0.205    2  0.219    2 0.5304   13  0.964    2  0.296   11  0.142
TORONTO        51 34 10 269 232  0.045 48.818    3  0.212    3  0.183    4  0.197    3 0.5243   10  0.975    3  0.286   12  0.107
PHILADELPHIA   51 34 15 279 229  0.026 50.648    4  0.187    5  0.157    5  0.192    5 0.5226   18  0.890    8  0.186    5  0.198
SAN JOSE       53 34 12 257 215 -0.008 48.931    5  0.186    4  0.158    6  0.164    4 0.5232   23  0.789   12  0.050    3  0.279
CALGARY        57 44  7 260 229  0.062 56.386    6  0.177    6  0.150    9  0.153    6 0.5209   29  0.678   17 -0.075    2  0.380
OTTAWA         46 33 10 273 203  0.023 44.835    7  0.156    7  0.133    1  0.273    7 0.5197   11  0.972    1  0.359    9  0.187
BOSTON         44 30 15 223 207  0.012 44.806    8  0.139    8  0.133   12  0.056    8 0.5197   24  0.764   19 -0.084    7  0.197
VANCOUVER      46 33 10 251 213  0.016 44.816    9  0.134    9  0.128    7  0.156    9 0.5192   12  0.966    4  0.235   14  0.077
NEW JERSEY     44 31 12 222 178 -0.007 42.955   10  0.119   11  0.116    8  0.155   11 0.5164   30  0.659   20 -0.092    1  0.401
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COLORADO       46 34 13 262 222  0.013 46.787   11  0.118   10  0.117   10  0.125   10 0.5174   14  0.954    6  0.191   15  0.060
DALLAS         42 32 13 204 194 -0.004 43.311   12  0.075   12  0.088   15  0.028   12 0.5132   26  0.714   24 -0.164    4  0.220
MONTREAL       45 41  7 232 220  0.028 47.438   13  0.038   13  0.050   13  0.050   13 0.5085   22  0.791   16 -0.063   10  0.163
ST LOUIS       40 36 11 200 210 -0.007 43.405   14  0.024   14  0.031   20 -0.084   14 0.5048   25  0.738   28 -0.252   13  0.084
EDMONTON       36 34 12 221 208  0.008 41.188   15  0.024   15  0.025   14  0.038   15 0.5036    9  0.986    9  0.140   19 -0.065
NASHVILLE      40 37 11 225 229 -0.012 43.664   16  0.013   16  0.013   19 -0.048   16 0.5033   16  0.933   15 -0.006   21 -0.090
N.Y. ISLANDERS 39 37 11 242 222 -0.002 43.286   17  0.013   17  0.012   11  0.062   17 0.5025    6  1.006    7  0.188   18 -0.064
BUFFALO        37 38  7 220 221  0.005 41.183   18 -0.003   18 -0.008   16 -0.013   18 0.4984    5  1.022   10  0.132   23 -0.157
MINNESOTA      30 32 20 188 183 -0.007 40.795   19 -0.010   19 -0.021   17 -0.015   19 0.4964   27  0.702   26 -0.218    8  0.188
ATLANTA        33 41  8 214 243 -0.025 40.456   20 -0.089   20 -0.103   23 -0.155   20 0.4854    2  1.078   11  0.056   27 -0.367
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LOS ANGELES    28 38 16 205 217 -0.019 40.441   21 -0.098   21 -0.113   18 -0.042   21 0.4836   15  0.951   14  0.020   22 -0.105
FLORIDA        28 39 15 188 221 -0.023 40.496   22 -0.119   22 -0.128   22 -0.140   22 0.4816   20  0.846   25 -0.194   20 -0.086
CAROLINA       28 40 14 172 209 -0.023 40.550   23 -0.129   23 -0.134   25 -0.164   23 0.4799   28  0.691   30 -0.379   16  0.051
ANAHEIM        29 43 10 184 213 -0.014 40.724   24 -0.154   24 -0.158   21 -0.132   24 0.4780   21  0.812   27 -0.223   17 -0.042
PHOENIX        22 42 18 188 245 -0.009 40.991   25 -0.208   25 -0.208   26 -0.217   25 0.4696    8  0.988   21 -0.113   25 -0.322
N.Y. RANGERS   27 48  7 206 250 -0.008 41.034   26 -0.218   26 -0.226   24 -0.164   26 0.4683    3  1.064   13  0.030   26 -0.358
COLUMBUS       25 49  8 177 238 -0.016 40.855   27 -0.243   27 -0.261   27 -0.262   27 0.4637   19  0.887   29 -0.271   24 -0.252
WASHINGTON     23 49 10 186 253 -0.017 40.929   28 -0.253   28 -0.276   28 -0.279   28 0.4599    7  1.002   23 -0.158   28 -0.400
PITTSBURGH     23 51  8 190 303 -0.003 41.582   29 -0.266   29 -0.289   30 -0.426   29 0.4576    1  1.186   18 -0.080   30 -0.771
CHICAGO        20 51 11 188 259 -0.023 40.703   30 -0.306   30 -0.336   29 -0.281   30 0.4530    4  1.039   22 -0.116   29 -0.446
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN JOSE       53 34 12 257 215 -0.008 48.931    5  0.186    4  0.158    6  0.164    4 0.5232   23  0.789   12  0.050    3  0.279
DALLAS         42 32 13 204 194 -0.004 43.311   12  0.075   12  0.088   15  0.028   12 0.5132   26  0.714   24 -0.164    4  0.220
LOS ANGELES    28 38 16 205 217 -0.019 40.441   21 -0.098   21 -0.113   18 -0.042   21 0.4836   15  0.951   14  0.020   22 -0.105
ANAHEIM        29 43 10 184 213 -0.014 40.724   24 -0.154   24 -0.158   21 -0.132   24 0.4780   21  0.812   27 -0.223   17 -0.042
PHOENIX        22 42 18 188 245 -0.009 40.991   25 -0.208   25 -0.208   26 -0.217   25 0.4696    8  0.988   21 -0.113   25 -0.322

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CALGARY        57 44  7 260 229  0.062 56.386    6  0.177    6  0.150    9  0.153    6 0.5209   29  0.678   17 -0.075    2  0.380
VANCOUVER      46 33 10 251 213  0.016 44.816    9  0.134    9  0.128    7  0.156    9 0.5192   12  0.966    4  0.235   14  0.077
COLORADO       46 34 13 262 222  0.013 46.787   11  0.118   10  0.117   10  0.125   10 0.5174   14  0.954    6  0.191   15  0.060
EDMONTON       36 34 12 221 208  0.008 41.188   15  0.024   15  0.025   14  0.038   15 0.5036    9  0.986    9  0.140   19 -0.065
MINNESOTA      30 32 20 188 183 -0.007 40.795   19 -0.010   19 -0.021   17 -0.015   19 0.4964   27  0.702   26 -0.218    8  0.188

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT        54 29 11 279 209 -0.027 45.595    2  0.230    2  0.205    2  0.219    2 0.5304   13  0.964    2  0.296   11  0.142
ST LOUIS       40 36 11 200 210 -0.007 43.405   14  0.024   14  0.031   20 -0.084   14 0.5048   25  0.738   28 -0.252   13  0.084
NASHVILLE      40 37 11 225 229 -0.012 43.664   16  0.013   16  0.013   19 -0.048   16 0.5033   16  0.933   15 -0.006   21 -0.090
COLUMBUS       25 49  8 177 238 -0.016 40.855   27 -0.243   27 -0.261   27 -0.262   27 0.4637   19  0.887   29 -0.271   24 -0.252
CHICAGO        20 51 11 188 259 -0.023 40.703   30 -0.306   30 -0.336   29 -0.281   30 0.4530    4  1.039   22 -0.116   29 -0.446

NORTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TORONTO        51 34 10 269 232  0.045 48.818    3  0.212    3  0.183    4  0.197    3 0.5243   10  0.975    3  0.286   12  0.107
OTTAWA         46 33 10 273 203  0.023 44.835    7  0.156    7  0.133    1  0.273    7 0.5197   11  0.972    1  0.359    9  0.187
BOSTON         44 30 15 223 207  0.012 44.806    8  0.139    8  0.133   12  0.056    8 0.5197   24  0.764   19 -0.084    7  0.197
MONTREAL       45 41  7 232 220  0.028 47.438   13  0.038   13  0.050   13  0.050   13 0.5085   22  0.791   16 -0.063   10  0.163
BUFFALO        37 38  7 220 221  0.005 41.183   18 -0.003   18 -0.008   16 -0.013   18 0.4984    5  1.022   10  0.132   23 -0.157

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILADELPHIA   51 34 15 279 229  0.026 50.648    4  0.187    5  0.157    5  0.192    5 0.5226   18  0.890    8  0.186    5  0.198
NEW JERSEY     44 31 12 222 178 -0.007 42.955   10  0.119   11  0.116    8  0.155   11 0.5164   30  0.659   20 -0.092    1  0.401
N.Y. ISLANDERS 39 37 11 242 222 -0.002 43.286   17  0.013   17  0.012   11  0.062   17 0.5025    6  1.006    7  0.188   18 -0.064
N.Y. RANGERS   27 48  7 206 250 -0.008 41.034   26 -0.218   26 -0.226   24 -0.164   26 0.4683    3  1.064   13  0.030   26 -0.358
PITTSBURGH     23 51  8 190 303 -0.003 41.582   29 -0.266   29 -0.289   30 -0.426   29 0.4576    1  1.186   18 -0.080   30 -0.771

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TAMPA BAY      62 35  8 305 235  0.003 52.235    1  0.250    1  0.231    3  0.216    1 0.5309   17  0.912    5  0.234    6  0.197
ATLANTA        33 41  8 214 243 -0.025 40.456   20 -0.089   20 -0.103   23 -0.155   20 0.4854    2  1.078   11  0.056   27 -0.367
FLORIDA        28 39 15 188 221 -0.023 40.496   22 -0.119   22 -0.128   22 -0.140   22 0.4816   20  0.846   25 -0.194   20 -0.086
CAROLINA       28 40 14 172 209 -0.023 40.550   23 -0.129   23 -0.134   25 -0.164   23 0.4799   28  0.691   30 -0.379   16  0.051
WASHINGTON     23 49 10 186 253 -0.017 40.929   28 -0.253   28 -0.276   28 -0.279   28 0.4599    7  1.002   23 -0.158   28 -0.400

DIVISION             W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHEAST DIVISION 223 176  49 0.552    1  0.146
NORTHWEST DIVISION 215 177  62 0.542    2  0.118
ATLANTIC DIVISION  184 201  53 0.481    3 -0.043
PACIFIC DIVISION   174 189  69 0.483    4 -0.050
CENTRAL DIVISION   179 202  52 0.473    5 -0.116
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 174 204  55 0.465    6 -0.136

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.109 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:44:48 2020
games through: Mon Jun  7 2004

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.