Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ANAHEIM        64 39 316 253  0.093 55.650    1  0.298    1  0.299    3  0.286    1 0.5354   22  0.948    7  0.209    7  0.364
SAN JOSE       57 36 283 226  0.090 50.017    2  0.284    2  0.277    2  0.308    2 0.5324   21  0.953    6  0.236    5  0.380
DETROIT        60 40 302 234  0.095 53.913    3  0.273    3  0.258    1  0.346    3 0.5300   26  0.857    9  0.168    1  0.524
NASHVILLE      52 35 286 228  0.065 46.000    4  0.243    4  0.225    4  0.273    6 0.5269   11  1.090    3  0.363    9  0.183
DALLAS         53 36 238 210  0.066 47.326    5  0.238    5  0.223    9  0.154    5 0.5271   28  0.735   23 -0.152    3  0.461
VANCOUVER      54 40 243 227  0.093 51.085    6  0.225    6  0.209   11  0.115    7 0.5251   29  0.704   25 -0.223    4  0.452
BUFFALO        62 36 352 281 -0.061 47.176    7  0.225    7  0.207    8  0.165    4 0.5276    3  1.189    2  0.378   13 -0.049
MINNESOTA      49 38 244 203  0.082 46.715    8  0.191    8  0.175    6  0.202    9 0.5212   27  0.745   18 -0.094    2  0.498
OTTAWA         61 41 347 269 -0.041 49.744    9  0.171    9  0.153    5  0.229    8 0.5235   16  1.074    4  0.299   10  0.158
COLORADO       44 38 272 251  0.068 43.683   10  0.113   10  0.110   10  0.140   10 0.5133    1  1.292    1  0.487   20 -0.208
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW JERSEY     54 39 246 230 -0.078 44.333   11  0.087   11  0.090   13  0.027   11 0.5129   30  0.694   30 -0.321    6  0.374
CALGARY        45 43 268 244  0.089 47.538   12  0.077   12  0.081    7  0.187   12 0.5091   14  1.077    5  0.260   11  0.113
PITTSBURGH     48 39 287 264 -0.068 41.870   13  0.042   13  0.045   14  0.005   13 0.5062    8  1.152    8  0.171   19 -0.160
N.Y. RANGERS   48 44 272 239 -0.077 43.843   14 -0.003   14 -0.020   12  0.061   14 0.4996   25  0.865   20 -0.109    8  0.232
MONTREAL       42 40 245 256 -0.070 39.611   15 -0.019   15 -0.030   18 -0.115   15 0.4989   10  1.094   14 -0.020   21 -0.210
TAMPA BAY      46 42 267 280 -0.095 41.656   16 -0.019   16 -0.031   20 -0.142   16 0.4980    9  1.143   12  0.014   24 -0.297
ATLANTA        43 43 252 262 -0.097 40.605   17 -0.056   17 -0.075   19 -0.120   18 0.4918   18  1.017   22 -0.118   18 -0.121
TORONTO        40 42 258 269 -0.071 39.567   18 -0.059   18 -0.077   17 -0.102   17 0.4933    4  1.185   10  0.106   25 -0.310
CAROLINA       40 42 241 253 -0.103 38.577   19 -0.088   19 -0.101   24 -0.155   19 0.4887   15  1.075   17 -0.083   23 -0.226
N.Y. ISLANDERS 41 46 259 257 -0.070 41.960   20 -0.090   20 -0.107   15 -0.056   20 0.4880   17  1.021   15 -0.050   14 -0.063
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ST. LOUIS      34 48 214 254  0.069 44.192   21 -0.093   21 -0.109   16 -0.097   21 0.4836   19  1.004   21 -0.109   16 -0.084
COLUMBUS       33 49 201 249  0.074 44.493   22 -0.121   22 -0.126   25 -0.172   22 0.4809   23  0.933   29 -0.266   15 -0.078
EDMONTON       32 50 195 248  0.086 44.818   23 -0.135   23 -0.140   23 -0.148   23 0.4800   24  0.919   28 -0.258   12 -0.038
PHOENIX        31 51 216 284  0.078 44.709   24 -0.173   24 -0.172   27 -0.206   25 0.4758    6  1.169   13 -0.019   27 -0.393
CHICAGO        31 51 201 258  0.074 44.492   25 -0.174   25 -0.173   26 -0.174   26 0.4753   20  0.961   26 -0.237   17 -0.111
BOSTON         35 47 219 289 -0.056 40.442   26 -0.176   26 -0.173   29 -0.331   24 0.4794   12  1.089   27 -0.244   28 -0.419
FLORIDA        35 47 247 257 -0.104 38.535   27 -0.204   27 -0.214   21 -0.142   27 0.4748   13  1.078   16 -0.067   22 -0.217
LOS ANGELES    27 55 227 283  0.075 44.484   28 -0.244   28 -0.263   22 -0.148   28 0.4646    2  1.191   11  0.068   26 -0.364
WASHINGTON     28 54 235 286 -0.094 39.064   29 -0.342   29 -0.362   28 -0.282   29 0.4553    7  1.161   19 -0.105   29 -0.459
PHILADELPHIA   22 60 214 303 -0.063 40.263   30 -0.470   30 -0.477   30 -0.398   30 0.4398    5  1.171   24 -0.208   30 -0.588
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ANAHEIM        64 39 316 253  0.093 55.650    1  0.298    1  0.299    3  0.286    1 0.5354   22  0.948    7  0.209    7  0.364
SAN JOSE       57 36 283 226  0.090 50.017    2  0.284    2  0.277    2  0.308    2 0.5324   21  0.953    6  0.236    5  0.380
DALLAS         53 36 238 210  0.066 47.326    5  0.238    5  0.223    9  0.154    5 0.5271   28  0.735   23 -0.152    3  0.461
PHOENIX        31 51 216 284  0.078 44.709   24 -0.173   24 -0.172   27 -0.206   25 0.4758    6  1.169   13 -0.019   27 -0.393
LOS ANGELES    27 55 227 283  0.075 44.484   28 -0.244   28 -0.263   22 -0.148   28 0.4646    2  1.191   11  0.068   26 -0.364

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
VANCOUVER      54 40 243 227  0.093 51.085    6  0.225    6  0.209   11  0.115    7 0.5251   29  0.704   25 -0.223    4  0.452
MINNESOTA      49 38 244 203  0.082 46.715    8  0.191    8  0.175    6  0.202    9 0.5212   27  0.745   18 -0.094    2  0.498
COLORADO       44 38 272 251  0.068 43.683   10  0.113   10  0.110   10  0.140   10 0.5133    1  1.292    1  0.487   20 -0.208
CALGARY        45 43 268 244  0.089 47.538   12  0.077   12  0.081    7  0.187   12 0.5091   14  1.077    5  0.260   11  0.113
EDMONTON       32 50 195 248  0.086 44.818   23 -0.135   23 -0.140   23 -0.148   23 0.4800   24  0.919   28 -0.258   12 -0.038

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT        60 40 302 234  0.095 53.913    3  0.273    3  0.258    1  0.346    3 0.5300   26  0.857    9  0.168    1  0.524
NASHVILLE      52 35 286 228  0.065 46.000    4  0.243    4  0.225    4  0.273    6 0.5269   11  1.090    3  0.363    9  0.183
ST. LOUIS      34 48 214 254  0.069 44.192   21 -0.093   21 -0.109   16 -0.097   21 0.4836   19  1.004   21 -0.109   16 -0.084
COLUMBUS       33 49 201 249  0.074 44.493   22 -0.121   22 -0.126   25 -0.172   22 0.4809   23  0.933   29 -0.266   15 -0.078
CHICAGO        31 51 201 258  0.074 44.492   25 -0.174   25 -0.173   26 -0.174   26 0.4753   20  0.961   26 -0.237   17 -0.111

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TAMPA BAY      46 42 267 280 -0.095 41.656   16 -0.019   16 -0.031   20 -0.142   16 0.4980    9  1.143   12  0.014   24 -0.297
ATLANTA        43 43 252 262 -0.097 40.605   17 -0.056   17 -0.075   19 -0.120   18 0.4918   18  1.017   22 -0.118   18 -0.121
CAROLINA       40 42 241 253 -0.103 38.577   19 -0.088   19 -0.101   24 -0.155   19 0.4887   15  1.075   17 -0.083   23 -0.226
FLORIDA        35 47 247 257 -0.104 38.535   27 -0.204   27 -0.214   21 -0.142   27 0.4748   13  1.078   16 -0.067   22 -0.217
WASHINGTON     28 54 235 286 -0.094 39.064   29 -0.342   29 -0.362   28 -0.282   29 0.4553    7  1.161   19 -0.105   29 -0.459

NORTHEAST DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUFFALO        62 36 352 281 -0.061 47.176    7  0.225    7  0.207    8  0.165    4 0.5276    3  1.189    2  0.378   13 -0.049
OTTAWA         61 41 347 269 -0.041 49.744    9  0.171    9  0.153    5  0.229    8 0.5235   16  1.074    4  0.299   10  0.158
MONTREAL       42 40 245 256 -0.070 39.611   15 -0.019   15 -0.030   18 -0.115   15 0.4989   10  1.094   14 -0.020   21 -0.210
TORONTO        40 42 258 269 -0.071 39.567   18 -0.059   18 -0.077   17 -0.102   17 0.4933    4  1.185   10  0.106   25 -0.310
BOSTON         35 47 219 289 -0.056 40.442   26 -0.176   26 -0.173   29 -0.331   24 0.4794   12  1.089   27 -0.244   28 -0.419

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW JERSEY     54 39 246 230 -0.078 44.333   11  0.087   11  0.090   13  0.027   11 0.5129   30  0.694   30 -0.321    6  0.374
PITTSBURGH     48 39 287 264 -0.068 41.870   13  0.042   13  0.045   14  0.005   13 0.5062    8  1.152    8  0.171   19 -0.160
N.Y. RANGERS   48 44 272 239 -0.077 43.843   14 -0.003   14 -0.020   12  0.061   14 0.4996   25  0.865   20 -0.109    8  0.232
N.Y. ISLANDERS 41 46 259 257 -0.070 41.960   20 -0.090   20 -0.107   15 -0.056   20 0.4880   17  1.021   15 -0.050   14 -0.063
PHILADELPHIA   22 60 214 303 -0.063 40.263   30 -0.470   30 -0.477   30 -0.398   30 0.4398    5  1.171   24 -0.208   30 -0.588

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHWEST DIVISION 224 209 0.517    1  0.125
PACIFIC DIVISION   232 217 0.517    2  0.096
CENTRAL DIVISION   210 223 0.485    3  0.042
NORTHEAST DIVISION 240 206 0.538    4 -0.040
ATLANTIC DIVISION  213 228 0.483    5 -0.085
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 192 228 0.457    6 -0.205

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.142 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.012 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:02:29 2024
games through: Wed Jun  6 2007

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