Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT        70 34 329 225  0.059 54.484    1  0.283    1  0.275    1  0.344    1 0.5455   20  0.897    1  0.260    1  0.428
SAN JOSE       55 40 252 225  0.065 50.241    2  0.151    2  0.138    3  0.141    2 0.5246   28  0.762   20 -0.088    2  0.370
DALLAS         55 45 287 248  0.093 53.899    3  0.123    3  0.117    2  0.170    4 0.5212   18  0.965    8  0.162    7  0.177
PITTSBURGH     61 41 308 259 -0.035 49.866    4  0.118    4  0.114    4  0.113    3 0.5215   16  0.983   10  0.126   11  0.100
ANAHEIM        48 38 213 206  0.081 46.144    5  0.116    5  0.113    7  0.053    5 0.5203   30  0.712   26 -0.226    3  0.333
COLORADO       48 44 257 252  0.063 48.707    6  0.040    6  0.057    9  0.035    6 0.5114   15  0.991   14  0.056   13  0.013
MINNESOTA      46 42 235 235  0.042 45.891    7  0.033    7  0.047    8  0.035    7 0.5101   21  0.893   19 -0.054   10  0.124
CALGARY        45 44 246 246  0.058 46.991    8  0.024    8  0.033   12  0.020    8 0.5073   13  1.020   13  0.076   17 -0.036
NASHVILLE      43 45 242 246  0.090 47.465    9  0.022   10  0.027    5  0.061   12 0.5032   14  1.006   12  0.101   12  0.022
MONTREAL       52 42 295 257 -0.072 44.675   10  0.021    9  0.028    6  0.056    9 0.5061   10  1.060    9  0.160   18 -0.048
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
EDMONTON       41 41 235 251  0.051 43.156   11  0.019   11  0.021   20 -0.051   11 0.5044    7  1.111   11  0.115   24 -0.216
NEW JERSEY     47 40 218 216 -0.056 42.091   12  0.017   12  0.019   24 -0.070   10 0.5052   29  0.735   30 -0.327    6  0.187
CHICAGO        40 42 239 235  0.062 43.385   13  0.014   13  0.012   10  0.034   15 0.5003    9  1.095    6  0.179   20 -0.112
PHILADELPHIA   51 48 300 287 -0.047 48.104   14  0.005   14 -0.009   14  0.015   13 0.5013    6  1.119    4  0.190   22 -0.161
VANCOUVER      39 43 213 215  0.044 42.793   15  0.001   15 -0.014   13  0.019   16 0.4989   24  0.852   22 -0.114    8  0.153
PHOENIX        38 44 214 231  0.071 43.777   16 -0.000   16 -0.015   16 -0.018   17 0.4972   17  0.969   18 -0.021   16 -0.015
N.Y. RANGERS   47 45 244 226 -0.058 44.265   17 -0.002   17 -0.021   11  0.032   14 0.5003   26  0.779   24 -0.179    4  0.243
CAROLINA       43 39 252 249 -0.101 38.190   18 -0.007   18 -0.025   23 -0.063   18 0.4968    3  1.174    5  0.181   26 -0.308
WASHINGTON     46 43 262 254 -0.093 41.703   19 -0.010   20 -0.032   21 -0.054   19 0.4957   12  1.025   16  0.007   21 -0.116
OTTAWA         43 43 266 263 -0.052 41.688   20 -0.010   19 -0.031   19 -0.044   20 0.4948    2  1.193    3  0.225   27 -0.313
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BOSTON         44 45 227 241 -0.048 43.304   21 -0.014   21 -0.037   22 -0.060   21 0.4934   25  0.797   28 -0.252    9  0.133
BUFFALO        39 43 255 242 -0.066 39.243   22 -0.038   22 -0.069   15 -0.015   22 0.4881    4  1.129    7  0.173   23 -0.202
COLUMBUS       34 48 193 218  0.068 43.693   23 -0.049   23 -0.078   17 -0.026   23 0.4837   27  0.772   27 -0.244    5  0.192
ST. LOUIS      33 49 205 237  0.070 43.785   24 -0.069   24 -0.092   18 -0.044   25 0.4809   19  0.927   21 -0.095   15  0.007
FLORIDA        38 44 216 226 -0.096 38.394   25 -0.079   25 -0.100   26 -0.103   24 0.4829   23  0.870   25 -0.217   14  0.011
LOS ANGELES    31 49 226 261  0.077 42.985   26 -0.090   26 -0.106   25 -0.073   27 0.4796    1  1.223    2  0.233   30 -0.380
TORONTO        36 46 231 260 -0.056 39.741   27 -0.095   27 -0.109   27 -0.111   26 0.4798    8  1.105   15  0.047   25 -0.269
N.Y. ISLANDERS 35 47 194 243 -0.046 40.146   28 -0.120   28 -0.121   29 -0.196   28 0.4792   22  0.877   29 -0.303   19 -0.089
ATLANTA        34 48 216 272 -0.082 39.039   29 -0.174   29 -0.153   30 -0.232   29 0.4718   11  1.057   23 -0.132   28 -0.332
TAMPA BAY      31 51 223 267 -0.087 38.795   30 -0.229   30 -0.203   28 -0.182   30 0.4635    5  1.123   17 -0.002   29 -0.363
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN JOSE       55 40 252 225  0.065 50.241    2  0.151    2  0.138    3  0.141    2 0.5246   28  0.762   20 -0.088    2  0.370
DALLAS         55 45 287 248  0.093 53.899    3  0.123    3  0.117    2  0.170    4 0.5212   18  0.965    8  0.162    7  0.177
ANAHEIM        48 38 213 206  0.081 46.144    5  0.116    5  0.113    7  0.053    5 0.5203   30  0.712   26 -0.226    3  0.333
PHOENIX        38 44 214 231  0.071 43.777   16 -0.000   16 -0.015   16 -0.018   17 0.4972   17  0.969   18 -0.021   16 -0.015
LOS ANGELES    31 49 226 261  0.077 42.985   26 -0.090   26 -0.106   25 -0.073   27 0.4796    1  1.223    2  0.233   30 -0.380

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COLORADO       48 44 257 252  0.063 48.707    6  0.040    6  0.057    9  0.035    6 0.5114   15  0.991   14  0.056   13  0.013
MINNESOTA      46 42 235 235  0.042 45.891    7  0.033    7  0.047    8  0.035    7 0.5101   21  0.893   19 -0.054   10  0.124
CALGARY        45 44 246 246  0.058 46.991    8  0.024    8  0.033   12  0.020    8 0.5073   13  1.020   13  0.076   17 -0.036
EDMONTON       41 41 235 251  0.051 43.156   11  0.019   11  0.021   20 -0.051   11 0.5044    7  1.111   11  0.115   24 -0.216
VANCOUVER      39 43 213 215  0.044 42.793   15  0.001   15 -0.014   13  0.019   16 0.4989   24  0.852   22 -0.114    8  0.153

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT        70 34 329 225  0.059 54.484    1  0.283    1  0.275    1  0.344    1 0.5455   20  0.897    1  0.260    1  0.428
NASHVILLE      43 45 242 246  0.090 47.465    9  0.022   10  0.027    5  0.061   12 0.5032   14  1.006   12  0.101   12  0.022
CHICAGO        40 42 239 235  0.062 43.385   13  0.014   13  0.012   10  0.034   15 0.5003    9  1.095    6  0.179   20 -0.112
COLUMBUS       34 48 193 218  0.068 43.693   23 -0.049   23 -0.078   17 -0.026   23 0.4837   27  0.772   27 -0.244    5  0.192
ST. LOUIS      33 49 205 237  0.070 43.785   24 -0.069   24 -0.092   18 -0.044   25 0.4809   19  0.927   21 -0.095   15  0.007

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAROLINA       43 39 252 249 -0.101 38.190   18 -0.007   18 -0.025   23 -0.063   18 0.4968    3  1.174    5  0.181   26 -0.308
WASHINGTON     46 43 262 254 -0.093 41.703   19 -0.010   20 -0.032   21 -0.054   19 0.4957   12  1.025   16  0.007   21 -0.116
FLORIDA        38 44 216 226 -0.096 38.394   25 -0.079   25 -0.100   26 -0.103   24 0.4829   23  0.870   25 -0.217   14  0.011
ATLANTA        34 48 216 272 -0.082 39.039   29 -0.174   29 -0.153   30 -0.232   29 0.4718   11  1.057   23 -0.132   28 -0.332
TAMPA BAY      31 51 223 267 -0.087 38.795   30 -0.229   30 -0.203   28 -0.182   30 0.4635    5  1.123   17 -0.002   29 -0.363

NORTHEAST DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MONTREAL       52 42 295 257 -0.072 44.675   10  0.021    9  0.028    6  0.056    9 0.5061   10  1.060    9  0.160   18 -0.048
OTTAWA         43 43 266 263 -0.052 41.688   20 -0.010   19 -0.031   19 -0.044   20 0.4948    2  1.193    3  0.225   27 -0.313
BOSTON         44 45 227 241 -0.048 43.304   21 -0.014   21 -0.037   22 -0.060   21 0.4934   25  0.797   28 -0.252    9  0.133
BUFFALO        39 43 255 242 -0.066 39.243   22 -0.038   22 -0.069   15 -0.015   22 0.4881    4  1.129    7  0.173   23 -0.202
TORONTO        36 46 231 260 -0.056 39.741   27 -0.095   27 -0.109   27 -0.111   26 0.4798    8  1.105   15  0.047   25 -0.269

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PITTSBURGH     61 41 308 259 -0.035 49.866    4  0.118    4  0.114    4  0.113    3 0.5215   16  0.983   10  0.126   11  0.100
NEW JERSEY     47 40 218 216 -0.056 42.091   12  0.017   12  0.019   24 -0.070   10 0.5052   29  0.735   30 -0.327    6  0.187
PHILADELPHIA   51 48 300 287 -0.047 48.104   14  0.005   14 -0.009   14  0.015   13 0.5013    6  1.119    4  0.190   22 -0.161
N.Y. RANGERS   47 45 244 226 -0.058 44.265   17 -0.002   17 -0.021   11  0.032   14 0.5003   26  0.779   24 -0.179    4  0.243
N.Y. ISLANDERS 35 47 194 243 -0.046 40.146   28 -0.120   28 -0.121   29 -0.196   28 0.4792   22  0.877   29 -0.303   19 -0.089

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION   220 218 0.502    1  0.115
PACIFIC DIVISION   227 216 0.512    2  0.088
NORTHWEST DIVISION 219 214 0.506    3  0.024
ATLANTIC DIVISION  241 221 0.522    4 -0.032
NORTHEAST DIVISION 214 219 0.494    5 -0.051
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 192 225 0.460    6 -0.201

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.116 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.010 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:02:57 2024
games through: Wed Jun  4 2008

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