Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHICAGO      68 36 349 271  0.046 53.947    1  0.254    1  0.251    1  0.250    1 0.5441    8  1.082    3  0.354    8  0.145
SAN JOSE     59 38 305 256  0.046 50.435    2  0.203    2  0.177    3  0.176    2 0.5331   17  1.015    4  0.201    6  0.151
WASHINGTON   57 32 340 253 -0.062 42.319    3  0.176    3  0.156    2  0.218    5 0.5254    1  1.314    1  0.620   24 -0.184
PHOENIX      53 36 243 227  0.032 45.958    4  0.158    4  0.144    9  0.048    3 0.5278   27  0.819   25 -0.146    4  0.243
VANCOUVER    55 39 315 263  0.031 48.263    5  0.150    5  0.134    4  0.174    4 0.5264    2  1.181    2  0.402   17 -0.054
NASHVILLE    49 39 240 242  0.050 46.158    6  0.092    6  0.101   13  0.010    6 0.5205   21  0.917   19 -0.078   12  0.098
LOS ANGELES  48 40 258 244  0.039 45.664    7  0.066    7  0.078    8  0.054    7 0.5169   19  0.976   12  0.034   13  0.075
NEW JERSEY   49 37 229 202 -0.028 42.304    8  0.064    8  0.076    6  0.065    9 0.5118   29  0.737   26 -0.215    1  0.345
PITTSBURGH   54 41 299 275 -0.050 46.017    9  0.047    9  0.064   14  0.009   10 0.5102    3  1.139    5  0.184   23 -0.165
DETROIT      49 45 272 249  0.050 49.142   10  0.040   10  0.055    5  0.096    8 0.5138   20  0.940   11  0.034    5  0.158
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COLORADO     45 43 255 252  0.025 45.213   11  0.022   12  0.024   11  0.040   11 0.5072   15  1.017    9  0.067   14  0.013
PHILADELPHIA 55 50 312 286 -0.010 52.421   12  0.020   11  0.025    7  0.064   12 0.5032   11  1.060    6  0.142   15 -0.014
BUFFALO      47 41 250 223 -0.042 42.808   13  0.019   13  0.019   10  0.046   13 0.5018   23  0.904   17 -0.056    7  0.148
OTTAWA       46 42 244 263 -0.040 43.134   14  0.009   14  0.006   23 -0.083   16 0.4995   13  1.041   14 -0.027   20 -0.138
ST. LOUIS    40 42 225 223  0.026 42.157   15  0.004   15 -0.007   12  0.028   14 0.5016   22  0.915   18 -0.061    9  0.117
CALGARY      40 42 204 210  0.012 41.770   16  0.000   16 -0.013   15 -0.005   15 0.5002   28  0.754   29 -0.267    3  0.257
ANAHEIM      39 43 238 251  0.028 42.340   17 -0.005   17 -0.022   18 -0.031   17 0.4994    6  1.102    7  0.098   22 -0.160
BOSTON       46 49 243 237 -0.026 46.943   18 -0.013   18 -0.041   17 -0.013   21 0.4911   30  0.719   30 -0.310    2  0.285
MONTREAL     48 53 263 280 -0.005 50.904   19 -0.014   20 -0.041   20 -0.069   20 0.4913   26  0.836   28 -0.245   10  0.107
MINNESOTA    38 44 219 246  0.022 42.228   20 -0.018   19 -0.041   22 -0.081   18 0.4950   18  0.985   21 -0.092   18 -0.071
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DALLAS       37 45 237 254  0.031 42.458   21 -0.023   21 -0.051   19 -0.035   19 0.4939    7  1.098    8  0.088   21 -0.159
NY RANGERS   38 44 222 218 -0.035 40.221   22 -0.040   22 -0.071   16 -0.008   22 0.4861   25  0.893   23 -0.123   11  0.106
ATLANTA      35 47 234 256 -0.044 40.103   23 -0.112   24 -0.124   24 -0.093   24 0.4754    5  1.104   10  0.038   26 -0.224
CAROLINA     35 47 230 256 -0.041 40.211   24 -0.112   23 -0.122   25 -0.127   25 0.4754    9  1.079   13 -0.026   27 -0.227
COLUMBUS     32 50 216 259  0.036 42.696   25 -0.124   25 -0.131   21 -0.081   23 0.4793   14  1.027   15 -0.042   19 -0.120
NY ISLANDERS 34 48 222 264 -0.027 40.725   26 -0.126   26 -0.131   28 -0.162   26 0.4742   10  1.062   20 -0.082   28 -0.242
TAMPA BAY    33 48 213 258 -0.040 39.809   27 -0.147   27 -0.147   27 -0.158   27 0.4709   16  1.016   24 -0.132   25 -0.184
FLORIDA      32 50 208 244 -0.035 40.469   28 -0.170   28 -0.167   26 -0.138   28 0.4677   24  0.904   27 -0.241   16 -0.036
TORONTO      30 52 214 267 -0.036 40.462   29 -0.205   29 -0.202   29 -0.190   30 0.4618   12  1.052   22 -0.122   29 -0.259
EDMONTON     27 55 214 284  0.025 42.537   30 -0.216   30 -0.219   30 -0.211   29 0.4633    4  1.132   16 -0.045   30 -0.377

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN JOSE     59 38 305 256  0.046 50.435    2  0.203    2  0.177    3  0.176    2 0.5331   17  1.015    4  0.201    6  0.151
PHOENIX      53 36 243 227  0.032 45.958    4  0.158    4  0.144    9  0.048    3 0.5278   27  0.819   25 -0.146    4  0.243
LOS ANGELES  48 40 258 244  0.039 45.664    7  0.066    7  0.078    8  0.054    7 0.5169   19  0.976   12  0.034   13  0.075
ANAHEIM      39 43 238 251  0.028 42.340   17 -0.005   17 -0.022   18 -0.031   17 0.4994    6  1.102    7  0.098   22 -0.160
DALLAS       37 45 237 254  0.031 42.458   21 -0.023   21 -0.051   19 -0.035   19 0.4939    7  1.098    8  0.088   21 -0.159

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
VANCOUVER    55 39 315 263  0.031 48.263    5  0.150    5  0.134    4  0.174    4 0.5264    2  1.181    2  0.402   17 -0.054
COLORADO     45 43 255 252  0.025 45.213   11  0.022   12  0.024   11  0.040   11 0.5072   15  1.017    9  0.067   14  0.013
CALGARY      40 42 204 210  0.012 41.770   16  0.000   16 -0.013   15 -0.005   15 0.5002   28  0.754   29 -0.267    3  0.257
MINNESOTA    38 44 219 246  0.022 42.228   20 -0.018   19 -0.041   22 -0.081   18 0.4950   18  0.985   21 -0.092   18 -0.071
EDMONTON     27 55 214 284  0.025 42.537   30 -0.216   30 -0.219   30 -0.211   29 0.4633    4  1.132   16 -0.045   30 -0.377

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHICAGO      68 36 349 271  0.046 53.947    1  0.254    1  0.251    1  0.250    1 0.5441    8  1.082    3  0.354    8  0.145
NASHVILLE    49 39 240 242  0.050 46.158    6  0.092    6  0.101   13  0.010    6 0.5205   21  0.917   19 -0.078   12  0.098
DETROIT      49 45 272 249  0.050 49.142   10  0.040   10  0.055    5  0.096    8 0.5138   20  0.940   11  0.034    5  0.158
ST. LOUIS    40 42 225 223  0.026 42.157   15  0.004   15 -0.007   12  0.028   14 0.5016   22  0.915   18 -0.061    9  0.117
COLUMBUS     32 50 216 259  0.036 42.696   25 -0.124   25 -0.131   21 -0.081   23 0.4793   14  1.027   15 -0.042   19 -0.120

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WASHINGTON   57 32 340 253 -0.062 42.319    3  0.176    3  0.156    2  0.218    5 0.5254    1  1.314    1  0.620   24 -0.184
ATLANTA      35 47 234 256 -0.044 40.103   23 -0.112   24 -0.124   24 -0.093   24 0.4754    5  1.104   10  0.038   26 -0.224
CAROLINA     35 47 230 256 -0.041 40.211   24 -0.112   23 -0.122   25 -0.127   25 0.4754    9  1.079   13 -0.026   27 -0.227
TAMPA BAY    33 48 213 258 -0.040 39.809   27 -0.147   27 -0.147   27 -0.158   27 0.4709   16  1.016   24 -0.132   25 -0.184
FLORIDA      32 50 208 244 -0.035 40.469   28 -0.170   28 -0.167   26 -0.138   28 0.4677   24  0.904   27 -0.241   16 -0.036

NORTHEAST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUFFALO      47 41 250 223 -0.042 42.808   13  0.019   13  0.019   10  0.046   13 0.5018   23  0.904   17 -0.056    7  0.148
OTTAWA       46 42 244 263 -0.040 43.134   14  0.009   14  0.006   23 -0.083   16 0.4995   13  1.041   14 -0.027   20 -0.138
BOSTON       46 49 243 237 -0.026 46.943   18 -0.013   18 -0.041   17 -0.013   21 0.4911   30  0.719   30 -0.310    2  0.285
MONTREAL     48 53 263 280 -0.005 50.904   19 -0.014   20 -0.041   20 -0.069   20 0.4913   26  0.836   28 -0.245   10  0.107
TORONTO      30 52 214 267 -0.036 40.462   29 -0.205   29 -0.202   29 -0.190   30 0.4618   12  1.052   22 -0.122   29 -0.259

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW JERSEY   49 37 229 202 -0.028 42.304    8  0.064    8  0.076    6  0.065    9 0.5118   29  0.737   26 -0.215    1  0.345
PITTSBURGH   54 41 299 275 -0.050 46.017    9  0.047    9  0.064   14  0.009   10 0.5102    3  1.139    5  0.184   23 -0.165
PHILADELPHIA 55 50 312 286 -0.010 52.421   12  0.020   11  0.025    7  0.064   12 0.5032   11  1.060    6  0.142   15 -0.014
NY RANGERS   38 44 222 218 -0.035 40.221   22 -0.040   22 -0.071   16 -0.008   22 0.4861   25  0.893   23 -0.123   11  0.106
NY ISLANDERS 34 48 222 264 -0.027 40.725   26 -0.126   26 -0.131   28 -0.162   26 0.4742   10  1.062   20 -0.082   28 -0.242

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION   238 212 0.529    1  0.092
PACIFIC DIVISION   236 202 0.539    2  0.068
ATLANTIC DIVISION  230 220 0.511    3 -0.007
NORTHWEST DIVISION 205 223 0.479    4 -0.024
NORTHEAST DIVISION 217 237 0.478    5 -0.091
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 192 224 0.462    6 -0.093

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.138 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:47:19 2020
games through: Wed Jun  9 2010

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