Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
VANCOUVER    69 38 320 254  0.023 53.955    1  0.973    1  0.231    2  0.198    1 0.5365  0.886  0.098  0.298  0.000
BOSTON       62 45 327 248  0.008 53.253    2  0.731    3  0.121    1  0.222    4 0.5209  0.924  0.163  0.280  0.000
DETROIT      54 39 297 269  0.019 46.897    3  0.725    2  0.121    7  0.079    3 0.5215  1.147  0.285 -0.128  0.000
SAN JOSE     57 43 299 271  0.033 50.979    4  0.715    4  0.117    4  0.086    2 0.5218  1.019  0.137  0.035  0.000
PITTSBURGH   52 37 252 221 -0.020 43.499    5  0.674    5  0.103    9  0.069    5 0.5184  0.863 -0.057  0.195  0.000
TAMPA BAY    57 43 306 285  0.009 50.018    6  0.669    6  0.103    8  0.069    6 0.5172  1.123  0.246 -0.108  0.000
WASHINGTON   52 39 247 221 -0.018 44.557    7  0.625    7  0.085   11  0.053    8 0.5149  0.780 -0.161  0.266  0.000
ANAHEIM      49 39 259 257  0.016 44.386    8  0.618    8  0.083   18  0.008    7 0.5154  1.098  0.154 -0.138  0.000
LOS ANGELES  48 40 239 218  0.015 44.205    9  0.594    9  0.068    6  0.083    9 0.5135  0.809 -0.100  0.266  0.000
PHILADELPHIA 51 42 288 261 -0.008 45.901   10  0.575   10  0.060   10  0.060   11 0.5101  1.120  0.232 -0.113  0.000
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NASHVILLE    50 44 252 228  0.018 47.355   11  0.562   11  0.052    5  0.085   10 0.5105  0.768 -0.142  0.311  0.000
CHICAGO      47 42 280 241  0.025 44.994   12  0.560   12  0.047    3  0.123   12 0.5097  1.077  0.243  0.003  0.000
MONTREAL     47 42 233 226  0.002 44.301   13  0.543   13  0.034   14  0.038   13 0.5055  0.838 -0.114  0.190  0.000
DALLAS       42 40 227 233  0.008 41.065   14  0.522   14  0.015   19 -0.002   14 0.5044  0.970 -0.008  0.004  0.000
BUFFALO      46 43 263 251 -0.013 43.823   15  0.518   15  0.012   17  0.021   16 0.5023  1.031  0.086 -0.045  0.000
PHOENIX      43 43 241 244  0.019 43.438   16  0.512   16  0.006   15  0.024   15 0.5031  0.985  0.035  0.012  0.000
NY RANGERS   45 42 241 211 -0.025 42.363   17  0.511   17  0.005   13  0.048   17 0.5017  0.860 -0.081  0.177  0.000
CALGARY      41 41 250 237 -0.018 40.201   18  0.490   18 -0.015   16  0.023   18 0.4987  1.083  0.151 -0.105  0.000
CAROLINA     40 42 236 239 -0.026 40.011   19  0.465   19 -0.036   20 -0.037   19 0.4940  1.063  0.066 -0.141  0.000
MINNESOTA    39 43 206 233 -0.004 40.850   20  0.458   20 -0.040   21 -0.095   20 0.4936  0.886 -0.194  0.005  0.000
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ST. LOUIS    38 44 240 234  0.006 40.937   21  0.450   21 -0.051   12  0.049   21 0.4920  1.050  0.138 -0.039  0.000
NEW JERSEY   38 44 174 209 -0.012 40.610   22  0.427   22 -0.062   25 -0.137   22 0.4892  0.627 -0.504  0.229  0.000
TORONTO      37 45 218 251 -0.015 40.540   23  0.395   23 -0.079   24 -0.136   23 0.4857  1.053 -0.044 -0.228  0.000
COLUMBUS     34 48 215 258  0.017 41.558   24  0.309   24 -0.112   22 -0.116   24 0.4806  1.022 -0.061 -0.171  0.000
ATLANTA      34 48 223 269 -0.019 40.394   25  0.249   25 -0.131   27 -0.156   25 0.4765  1.115  0.011 -0.323  0.000
OTTAWA       32 50 192 250 -0.011 40.703   26  0.165   26 -0.160   28 -0.182   26 0.4715  0.935 -0.227 -0.136  0.000
COLORADO     30 52 227 288 -0.001 41.144   27  0.103   27 -0.187   29 -0.230   27 0.4673  1.210  0.056 -0.516  0.000
FLORIDA      30 52 195 229 -0.018 40.417   28  0.090   28 -0.196   23 -0.132   29 0.4655  0.812 -0.312  0.049  0.000
NY ISLANDERS 30 52 229 264 -0.018 40.437   29  0.089   29 -0.196   26 -0.140   28 0.4659  1.137  0.054 -0.334  0.000
EDMONTON     25 57 193 269 -0.000 41.177   30  0.000   30 -0.270   30 -0.245   30 0.4533  0.986 -0.233 -0.258  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN JOSE     57 43 299 271  0.033 50.979    4  0.715    4  0.117    4  0.086    2 0.5218  1.019  0.137  0.035  0.000
ANAHEIM      49 39 259 257  0.016 44.386    8  0.618    8  0.083   18  0.008    7 0.5154  1.098  0.154 -0.138  0.000
LOS ANGELES  48 40 239 218  0.015 44.205    9  0.594    9  0.068    6  0.083    9 0.5135  0.809 -0.100  0.266  0.000
DALLAS       42 40 227 233  0.008 41.065   14  0.522   14  0.015   19 -0.002   14 0.5044  0.970 -0.008  0.004  0.000
PHOENIX      43 43 241 244  0.019 43.438   16  0.512   16  0.006   15  0.024   15 0.5031  0.985  0.035  0.012  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
VANCOUVER    69 38 320 254  0.023 53.955    1  0.973    1  0.231    2  0.198    1 0.5365  0.886  0.098  0.298  0.000
CALGARY      41 41 250 237 -0.018 40.201   18  0.490   18 -0.015   16  0.023   18 0.4987  1.083  0.151 -0.105  0.000
MINNESOTA    39 43 206 233 -0.004 40.850   20  0.458   20 -0.040   21 -0.095   20 0.4936  0.886 -0.194  0.005  0.000
COLORADO     30 52 227 288 -0.001 41.144   27  0.103   27 -0.187   29 -0.230   27 0.4673  1.210  0.056 -0.516  0.000
EDMONTON     25 57 193 269 -0.000 41.177   30  0.000   30 -0.270   30 -0.245   30 0.4533  0.986 -0.233 -0.258  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT      54 39 297 269  0.019 46.897    3  0.725    2  0.121    7  0.079    3 0.5215  1.147  0.285 -0.128  0.000
NASHVILLE    50 44 252 228  0.018 47.355   11  0.562   11  0.052    5  0.085   10 0.5105  0.768 -0.142  0.311  0.000
CHICAGO      47 42 280 241  0.025 44.994   12  0.560   12  0.047    3  0.123   12 0.5097  1.077  0.243  0.003  0.000
ST. LOUIS    38 44 240 234  0.006 40.937   21  0.450   21 -0.051   12  0.049   21 0.4920  1.050  0.138 -0.039  0.000
COLUMBUS     34 48 215 258  0.017 41.558   24  0.309   24 -0.112   22 -0.116   24 0.4806  1.022 -0.061 -0.171  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TAMPA BAY    57 43 306 285  0.009 50.018    6  0.669    6  0.103    8  0.069    6 0.5172  1.123  0.246 -0.108  0.000
WASHINGTON   52 39 247 221 -0.018 44.557    7  0.625    7  0.085   11  0.053    8 0.5149  0.780 -0.161  0.266  0.000
CAROLINA     40 42 236 239 -0.026 40.011   19  0.465   19 -0.036   20 -0.037   19 0.4940  1.063  0.066 -0.141  0.000
ATLANTA      34 48 223 269 -0.019 40.394   25  0.249   25 -0.131   27 -0.156   25 0.4765  1.115  0.011 -0.323  0.000
FLORIDA      30 52 195 229 -0.018 40.417   28  0.090   28 -0.196   23 -0.132   29 0.4655  0.812 -0.312  0.049  0.000

NORTHEAST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BOSTON       62 45 327 248  0.008 53.253    2  0.731    3  0.121    1  0.222    4 0.5209  0.924  0.163  0.280  0.000
MONTREAL     47 42 233 226  0.002 44.301   13  0.543   13  0.034   14  0.038   13 0.5055  0.838 -0.114  0.190  0.000
BUFFALO      46 43 263 251 -0.013 43.823   15  0.518   15  0.012   17  0.021   16 0.5023  1.031  0.086 -0.045  0.000
TORONTO      37 45 218 251 -0.015 40.540   23  0.395   23 -0.079   24 -0.136   23 0.4857  1.053 -0.044 -0.228  0.000
OTTAWA       32 50 192 250 -0.011 40.703   26  0.165   26 -0.160   28 -0.182   26 0.4715  0.935 -0.227 -0.136  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PITTSBURGH   52 37 252 221 -0.020 43.499    5  0.674    5  0.103    9  0.069    5 0.5184  0.863 -0.057  0.195  0.000
PHILADELPHIA 51 42 288 261 -0.008 45.901   10  0.575   10  0.060   10  0.060   11 0.5101  1.120  0.232 -0.113  0.000
NY RANGERS   45 42 241 211 -0.025 42.363   17  0.511   17  0.005   13  0.048   17 0.5017  0.860 -0.081  0.177  0.000
NEW JERSEY   38 44 174 209 -0.012 40.610   22  0.427   22 -0.062   25 -0.137   22 0.4892  0.627 -0.504  0.229  0.000
NY ISLANDERS 30 52 229 264 -0.018 40.437   29  0.089   29 -0.196   26 -0.140   28 0.4659  1.137  0.054 -0.334  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION   223 217 0.507    1  0.071
PACIFIC DIVISION   239 205 0.538    2  0.065
NORTHEAST DIVISION 224 225 0.499    3 -0.012
ATLANTIC DIVISION  216 217 0.499    4 -0.027
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 213 224 0.487    5 -0.059
NORTHWEST DIVISION 204 231 0.469    6 -0.109

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.085 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.006 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Sep 17 17:54:07 2011
games through: Wed Jun 15 2011

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