Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
VANCOUVER    69 38 320 254  0.023 53.955    1  0.268    1  0.231    2  0.198    1 0.5365   22  0.881   10  0.094    2  0.302
BOSTON       62 45 327 248  0.008 53.253    2  0.132    3  0.121    1  0.222    4 0.5209   20  0.919    5  0.160    3  0.283
DETROIT      54 39 297 269  0.019 46.897    3  0.129    2  0.121    7  0.079    3 0.5215    2  1.146    1  0.287   21 -0.129
SAN JOSE     57 43 299 271  0.033 50.979    4  0.124    4  0.117    4  0.086    2 0.5218   15  1.019    9  0.139   11  0.033
PITTSBURGH   52 37 252 221 -0.020 43.499    5  0.103    5  0.103    9  0.069    5 0.5184   23  0.861   19 -0.057    7  0.194
TAMPA BAY    57 43 306 285  0.009 50.018    6  0.100    6  0.103    8  0.069    6 0.5172    4  1.123    2  0.248   19 -0.110
WASHINGTON   52 39 247 221 -0.018 44.557    7  0.077    7  0.085   11  0.053    8 0.5149   28  0.780   25 -0.159    5  0.264
ANAHEIM      49 39 259 257  0.016 44.386    8  0.073    8  0.083   18  0.008    7 0.5154    7  1.098    6  0.156   24 -0.141
LOS ANGELES  48 40 239 218  0.015 44.205    9  0.061    9  0.068    6  0.083    9 0.5135   27  0.807   22 -0.100    4  0.267
PHILADELPHIA 51 42 288 261 -0.008 45.901   10  0.051   10  0.060   10  0.060   11 0.5101    5  1.117    4  0.232   20 -0.112
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NASHVILLE    50 44 252 228  0.018 47.355   11  0.044   11  0.052    5  0.085   10 0.5105   29  0.766   24 -0.141    1  0.311
CHICAGO      47 42 280 241  0.025 44.994   12  0.043   12  0.047    3  0.123   12 0.5097    9  1.076    3  0.244   15  0.002
MONTREAL     47 42 233 226  0.002 44.301   13  0.034   13  0.034   14  0.038   13 0.5055   25  0.839   23 -0.112    8  0.187
DALLAS       42 40 227 233  0.008 41.065   14  0.023   14  0.015   19 -0.002   14 0.5044   18  0.969   17 -0.006   14  0.003
BUFFALO      46 43 263 251 -0.013 43.823   15  0.021   15  0.012   17  0.021   16 0.5023   13  1.031   11  0.088   17 -0.047
PHOENIX      43 43 241 244  0.019 43.438   16  0.018   16  0.006   15  0.024   15 0.5031   16  0.984   15  0.036   12  0.011
NY RANGERS   45 42 241 211 -0.025 42.363   17  0.018   17  0.005   13  0.048   17 0.5017   24  0.860   21 -0.078    9  0.174
CALGARY      41 41 250 237 -0.018 40.201   18  0.007   18 -0.015   16  0.023   18 0.4987    8  1.083    7  0.153   18 -0.107
CAROLINA     40 42 236 239 -0.026 40.011   19 -0.006   19 -0.036   20 -0.037   19 0.4940   10  1.061   12  0.066   23 -0.140
MINNESOTA    39 43 206 233 -0.004 40.850   20 -0.010   20 -0.040   21 -0.095   20 0.4936   21  0.885   26 -0.194   13  0.005
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ST. LOUIS    38 44 240 234  0.006 40.937   21 -0.014   21 -0.051   12  0.049   21 0.4920   12  1.051    8  0.140   16 -0.042
NEW JERSEY   38 44 174 209 -0.012 40.610   22 -0.026   22 -0.062   25 -0.137   22 0.4892   30  0.623   30 -0.505    6  0.231
TORONTO      37 45 218 251 -0.015 40.540   23 -0.043   23 -0.079   24 -0.136   23 0.4857   11  1.052   18 -0.044   26 -0.228
COLUMBUS     34 48 215 258  0.017 41.558   24 -0.088   24 -0.112   22 -0.116   24 0.4806   14  1.022   20 -0.059   25 -0.173
ATLANTA      34 48 223 269 -0.019 40.394   25 -0.120   25 -0.131   27 -0.156   25 0.4765    6  1.114   16  0.012   28 -0.324
OTTAWA       32 50 192 250 -0.011 40.703   26 -0.164   26 -0.160   28 -0.182   26 0.4715   19  0.929   27 -0.232   22 -0.131
COLORADO     30 52 227 288 -0.001 41.144   27 -0.196   27 -0.187   29 -0.230   27 0.4673    1  1.204   14  0.051   30 -0.512
FLORIDA      30 52 195 229 -0.018 40.417   28 -0.203   28 -0.196   23 -0.132   29 0.4655   26  0.811   29 -0.311   10  0.048
NY ISLANDERS 30 52 229 264 -0.018 40.437   29 -0.204   29 -0.196   26 -0.140   28 0.4659    3  1.136   13  0.055   29 -0.334
EDMONTON     25 57 193 269 -0.000 41.177   30 -0.251   30 -0.270   30 -0.245   30 0.4533   17  0.977   28 -0.241   27 -0.249
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN JOSE     57 43 299 271  0.033 50.979    4  0.124    4  0.117    4  0.086    2 0.5218   15  1.019    9  0.139   11  0.033
ANAHEIM      49 39 259 257  0.016 44.386    8  0.073    8  0.083   18  0.008    7 0.5154    7  1.098    6  0.156   24 -0.141
LOS ANGELES  48 40 239 218  0.015 44.205    9  0.061    9  0.068    6  0.083    9 0.5135   27  0.807   22 -0.100    4  0.267
DALLAS       42 40 227 233  0.008 41.065   14  0.023   14  0.015   19 -0.002   14 0.5044   18  0.969   17 -0.006   14  0.003
PHOENIX      43 43 241 244  0.019 43.438   16  0.018   16  0.006   15  0.024   15 0.5031   16  0.984   15  0.036   12  0.011

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
VANCOUVER    69 38 320 254  0.023 53.955    1  0.268    1  0.231    2  0.198    1 0.5365   22  0.881   10  0.094    2  0.302
CALGARY      41 41 250 237 -0.018 40.201   18  0.007   18 -0.015   16  0.023   18 0.4987    8  1.083    7  0.153   18 -0.107
MINNESOTA    39 43 206 233 -0.004 40.850   20 -0.010   20 -0.040   21 -0.095   20 0.4936   21  0.885   26 -0.194   13  0.005
COLORADO     30 52 227 288 -0.001 41.144   27 -0.196   27 -0.187   29 -0.230   27 0.4673    1  1.204   14  0.051   30 -0.512
EDMONTON     25 57 193 269 -0.000 41.177   30 -0.251   30 -0.270   30 -0.245   30 0.4533   17  0.977   28 -0.241   27 -0.249

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT      54 39 297 269  0.019 46.897    3  0.129    2  0.121    7  0.079    3 0.5215    2  1.146    1  0.287   21 -0.129
NASHVILLE    50 44 252 228  0.018 47.355   11  0.044   11  0.052    5  0.085   10 0.5105   29  0.766   24 -0.141    1  0.311
CHICAGO      47 42 280 241  0.025 44.994   12  0.043   12  0.047    3  0.123   12 0.5097    9  1.076    3  0.244   15  0.002
ST. LOUIS    38 44 240 234  0.006 40.937   21 -0.014   21 -0.051   12  0.049   21 0.4920   12  1.051    8  0.140   16 -0.042
COLUMBUS     34 48 215 258  0.017 41.558   24 -0.088   24 -0.112   22 -0.116   24 0.4806   14  1.022   20 -0.059   25 -0.173

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TAMPA BAY    57 43 306 285  0.009 50.018    6  0.100    6  0.103    8  0.069    6 0.5172    4  1.123    2  0.248   19 -0.110
WASHINGTON   52 39 247 221 -0.018 44.557    7  0.077    7  0.085   11  0.053    8 0.5149   28  0.780   25 -0.159    5  0.264
CAROLINA     40 42 236 239 -0.026 40.011   19 -0.006   19 -0.036   20 -0.037   19 0.4940   10  1.061   12  0.066   23 -0.140
ATLANTA      34 48 223 269 -0.019 40.394   25 -0.120   25 -0.131   27 -0.156   25 0.4765    6  1.114   16  0.012   28 -0.324
FLORIDA      30 52 195 229 -0.018 40.417   28 -0.203   28 -0.196   23 -0.132   29 0.4655   26  0.811   29 -0.311   10  0.048

NORTHEAST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BOSTON       62 45 327 248  0.008 53.253    2  0.132    3  0.121    1  0.222    4 0.5209   20  0.919    5  0.160    3  0.283
MONTREAL     47 42 233 226  0.002 44.301   13  0.034   13  0.034   14  0.038   13 0.5055   25  0.839   23 -0.112    8  0.187
BUFFALO      46 43 263 251 -0.013 43.823   15  0.021   15  0.012   17  0.021   16 0.5023   13  1.031   11  0.088   17 -0.047
TORONTO      37 45 218 251 -0.015 40.540   23 -0.043   23 -0.079   24 -0.136   23 0.4857   11  1.052   18 -0.044   26 -0.228
OTTAWA       32 50 192 250 -0.011 40.703   26 -0.164   26 -0.160   28 -0.182   26 0.4715   19  0.929   27 -0.232   22 -0.131

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PITTSBURGH   52 37 252 221 -0.020 43.499    5  0.103    5  0.103    9  0.069    5 0.5184   23  0.861   19 -0.057    7  0.194
PHILADELPHIA 51 42 288 261 -0.008 45.901   10  0.051   10  0.060   10  0.060   11 0.5101    5  1.117    4  0.232   20 -0.112
NY RANGERS   45 42 241 211 -0.025 42.363   17  0.018   17  0.005   13  0.048   17 0.5017   24  0.860   21 -0.078    9  0.174
NEW JERSEY   38 44 174 209 -0.012 40.610   22 -0.026   22 -0.062   25 -0.137   22 0.4892   30  0.623   30 -0.505    6  0.231
NY ISLANDERS 30 52 229 264 -0.018 40.437   29 -0.204   29 -0.196   26 -0.140   28 0.4659    3  1.136   13  0.055   29 -0.334

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION   223 217 0.507    1  0.071
PACIFIC DIVISION   239 205 0.538    2  0.065
NORTHEAST DIVISION 224 225 0.499    3 -0.012
ATLANTIC DIVISION  216 217 0.499    4 -0.027
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 213 224 0.487    5 -0.059
NORTHWEST DIVISION 204 231 0.469    6 -0.109

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.085 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.006 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:47:37 2020
games through: Wed Jun 15 2011

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