Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHICAGO      52 19 219 150  0.022 35.873    1  0.223    1  0.146    1  0.132    1 0.5633   18  0.882   11  0.074    5  0.190
PITTSBURGH   44 19 214 159  0.032 32.094    2  0.118    2  0.112    3  0.110    2 0.5406    3  1.157    1  0.377   21 -0.157
BOSTON       42 28 196 156  0.082 37.177    3  0.048    3  0.070    2  0.116    5 0.5249   26  0.732   20 -0.100    1  0.331
ANAHEIM      33 22 161 136 -0.012 27.329    4  0.025    4  0.034    4  0.044    3 0.5292   16  0.965   10  0.080   13  0.008
ST. LOUIS    31 23 139 127  0.005 27.399    5  0.021    5  0.023   11  0.012    4 0.5255   23  0.800   23 -0.133    9  0.157
MONTREAL     30 23 158 146  0.016 27.017    6  0.020    6  0.021    7  0.029   10 0.5076    8  1.070    5  0.188   19 -0.130
LOS ANGELES  36 30 170 152  0.024 33.861    7  0.018    7  0.017    5  0.040    6 0.5225   22  0.801   21 -0.104    6  0.184
TORONTO      29 26 163 155  0.057 28.936    8  0.016    8  0.009    6  0.036   12 0.5027    5  1.121    3  0.257   23 -0.186
SAN JOSE     32 27 149 138  0.002 29.962    9  0.016    9  0.008   13  0.001    7 0.5171   27  0.725   27 -0.221    4  0.223
OTTAWA       30 28 147 135  0.061 30.696   10  0.015   10  0.005    8  0.029   14 0.5022   30  0.645   29 -0.274    2  0.331
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NY RANGERS   31 29 156 140  0.041 31.342   11  0.014   12  0.001   10  0.016   15 0.4998   29  0.695   28 -0.236    3  0.269
WASHINGTON   30 25 161 146 -0.022 27.337   12  0.014   11  0.002   12  0.003   16 0.4997   13  0.988   12  0.065   16 -0.060
DETROIT      31 31 157 152  0.051 32.644   13  0.012   13 -0.006    9  0.017    8 0.5148   24  0.796   22 -0.133    8  0.167
MINNESOTA    27 26 129 144 -0.023 26.763   14  0.009   14 -0.017   24 -0.066    9 0.5092   21  0.858   24 -0.149   12  0.018
NY ISLANDERS 26 28 156 164  0.037 28.368   15  0.008   15 -0.020   15 -0.025   18 0.4923    9  1.066    8  0.129   22 -0.180
COLUMBUS     24 24 120 119 -0.028 23.921   16  0.006   16 -0.024   16 -0.028   11 0.5048   25  0.766   26 -0.209   10  0.153
WINNIPEG     24 24 128 144 -0.040 23.937   17  0.006   17 -0.025   25 -0.067   20 0.4878   12  1.007   13  0.018   20 -0.151
VANCOUVER    26 26 135 136 -0.051 25.326   18  0.004   18 -0.029   14 -0.014   13 0.5026   19  0.875   19 -0.079   11  0.051
PHILADELPHIA 23 25 133 141 -0.007 24.499   19  0.004   19 -0.030   19 -0.050   21 0.4860    7  1.081    9  0.122   24 -0.222
DALLAS       22 26 130 142 -0.020 24.233   20 -0.002   20 -0.043   21 -0.052   17 0.4961    6  1.119    6  0.167   26 -0.271
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUFFALO      21 27 125 143  0.012 24.926   21 -0.004   21 -0.046   22 -0.059   23 0.4782   14  0.970   14 -0.017   17 -0.101
PHOENIX      21 27 125 131 -0.022 24.090   22 -0.010   22 -0.055   17 -0.036   19 0.4911   17  0.927   17 -0.044   15 -0.029
NEW JERSEY   19 29 112 129 -0.010 24.452   23 -0.029   23 -0.073   20 -0.052   26 0.4670   28  0.718   30 -0.282    7  0.178
CAROLINA     19 29 128 160 -0.032 24.279   24 -0.035   24 -0.076   27 -0.096   27 0.4640    4  1.148    7  0.159   28 -0.352
EDMONTON     19 29 125 134 -0.059 23.515   25 -0.045   26 -0.082   23 -0.064   24 0.4777   15  0.970   16 -0.023   18 -0.105
CALGARY      19 29 128 160 -0.055 23.839   26 -0.047   25 -0.081   28 -0.106   22 0.4785    1  1.232    4  0.256   30 -0.468
TAMPA BAY    18 30 148 150 -0.046 23.660   27 -0.070   27 -0.093   18 -0.042   29 0.4583    2  1.219    2  0.303   29 -0.387
NASHVILLE    16 32 111 139 -0.020 24.453   28 -0.100   28 -0.106   26 -0.088   25 0.4680   20  0.874   25 -0.154   14 -0.022
COLORADO     16 32 116 152 -0.059 23.884   29 -0.120   29 -0.113   29 -0.126   28 0.4636   11  1.026   15 -0.019   25 -0.233
FLORIDA      15 33 112 171 -0.038 24.561   30 -0.134   30 -0.118   30 -0.169   30 0.4446   10  1.031   18 -0.057   27 -0.282

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ANAHEIM      33 22 161 136 -0.012 27.329    4  0.025    4  0.034    4  0.044    3 0.5292   16  0.965   10  0.080   13  0.008
LOS ANGELES  36 30 170 152  0.024 33.861    7  0.018    7  0.017    5  0.040    6 0.5225   22  0.801   21 -0.104    6  0.184
SAN JOSE     32 27 149 138  0.002 29.962    9  0.016    9  0.008   13  0.001    7 0.5171   27  0.725   27 -0.221    4  0.223
DALLAS       22 26 130 142 -0.020 24.233   20 -0.002   20 -0.043   21 -0.052   17 0.4961    6  1.119    6  0.167   26 -0.271
PHOENIX      21 27 125 131 -0.022 24.090   22 -0.010   22 -0.055   17 -0.036   19 0.4911   17  0.927   17 -0.044   15 -0.029

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MINNESOTA    27 26 129 144 -0.023 26.763   14  0.009   14 -0.017   24 -0.066    9 0.5092   21  0.858   24 -0.149   12  0.018
VANCOUVER    26 26 135 136 -0.051 25.326   18  0.004   18 -0.029   14 -0.014   13 0.5026   19  0.875   19 -0.079   11  0.051
EDMONTON     19 29 125 134 -0.059 23.515   25 -0.045   26 -0.082   23 -0.064   24 0.4777   15  0.970   16 -0.023   18 -0.105
CALGARY      19 29 128 160 -0.055 23.839   26 -0.047   25 -0.081   28 -0.106   22 0.4785    1  1.232    4  0.256   30 -0.468
COLORADO     16 32 116 152 -0.059 23.884   29 -0.120   29 -0.113   29 -0.126   28 0.4636   11  1.026   15 -0.019   25 -0.233

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHICAGO      52 19 219 150  0.022 35.873    1  0.223    1  0.146    1  0.132    1 0.5633   18  0.882   11  0.074    5  0.190
ST. LOUIS    31 23 139 127  0.005 27.399    5  0.021    5  0.023   11  0.012    4 0.5255   23  0.800   23 -0.133    9  0.157
DETROIT      31 31 157 152  0.051 32.644   13  0.012   13 -0.006    9  0.017    8 0.5148   24  0.796   22 -0.133    8  0.167
COLUMBUS     24 24 120 119 -0.028 23.921   16  0.006   16 -0.024   16 -0.028   11 0.5048   25  0.766   26 -0.209   10  0.153
NASHVILLE    16 32 111 139 -0.020 24.453   28 -0.100   28 -0.106   26 -0.088   25 0.4680   20  0.874   25 -0.154   14 -0.022

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WASHINGTON   30 25 161 146 -0.022 27.337   12  0.014   11  0.002   12  0.003   16 0.4997   13  0.988   12  0.065   16 -0.060
WINNIPEG     24 24 128 144 -0.040 23.937   17  0.006   17 -0.025   25 -0.067   20 0.4878   12  1.007   13  0.018   20 -0.151
CAROLINA     19 29 128 160 -0.032 24.279   24 -0.035   24 -0.076   27 -0.096   27 0.4640    4  1.148    7  0.159   28 -0.352
TAMPA BAY    18 30 148 150 -0.046 23.660   27 -0.070   27 -0.093   18 -0.042   29 0.4583    2  1.219    2  0.303   29 -0.387
FLORIDA      15 33 112 171 -0.038 24.561   30 -0.134   30 -0.118   30 -0.169   30 0.4446   10  1.031   18 -0.057   27 -0.282

NORTHEAST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BOSTON       42 28 196 156  0.082 37.177    3  0.048    3  0.070    2  0.116    5 0.5249   26  0.732   20 -0.100    1  0.331
MONTREAL     30 23 158 146  0.016 27.017    6  0.020    6  0.021    7  0.029   10 0.5076    8  1.070    5  0.188   19 -0.130
TORONTO      29 26 163 155  0.057 28.936    8  0.016    8  0.009    6  0.036   12 0.5027    5  1.121    3  0.257   23 -0.186
OTTAWA       30 28 147 135  0.061 30.696   10  0.015   10  0.005    8  0.029   14 0.5022   30  0.645   29 -0.274    2  0.331
BUFFALO      21 27 125 143  0.012 24.926   21 -0.004   21 -0.046   22 -0.059   23 0.4782   14  0.970   14 -0.017   17 -0.101

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PITTSBURGH   44 19 214 159  0.032 32.094    2  0.118    2  0.112    3  0.110    2 0.5406    3  1.157    1  0.377   21 -0.157
NY RANGERS   31 29 156 140  0.041 31.342   11  0.014   12  0.001   10  0.016   15 0.4998   29  0.695   28 -0.236    3  0.269
NY ISLANDERS 26 28 156 164  0.037 28.368   15  0.008   15 -0.020   15 -0.025   18 0.4923    9  1.066    8  0.129   22 -0.180
PHILADELPHIA 23 25 133 141 -0.007 24.499   19  0.004   19 -0.030   19 -0.050   21 0.4860    7  1.081    9  0.122   24 -0.222
NEW JERSEY   19 29 112 129 -0.010 24.452   23 -0.029   23 -0.073   20 -0.052   26 0.4670   28  0.718   30 -0.282    7  0.178

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHEAST DIVISION 152 132 0.535    1  0.134
CENTRAL DIVISION   154 129 0.544    2  0.059
PACIFIC DIVISION   144 132 0.522    3  0.043
ATLANTIC DIVISION  143 130 0.524    4  0.038
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 106 141 0.429    5 -0.207
NORTHWEST DIVISION 107 142 0.430    6 -0.208

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.146 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.018 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:48:11 2020
games through: Mon Jun 24 2013

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