Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DUCKS        61 34 301 246  0.019 48.138    1  0.249    1  0.255    4  0.184    1 0.5355    5  1.081    2  0.336   11  0.032
BRUINS       61 33 291 203 -0.039 45.273    2  0.232    2  0.226    1  0.295    2 0.5322   23  0.861    5  0.194    2  0.395
BLUES        54 34 262 211  0.023 44.756    3  0.212    4  0.203    5  0.183    4 0.5293   22  0.871   10  0.094    5  0.273
AVALANCHE    55 34 270 242  0.015 45.092    4  0.211    3  0.204    9  0.110    3 0.5299    8  1.051    3  0.226   14 -0.005
PENGUINS     58 37 284 240 -0.005 47.294    5  0.194    6  0.182    6  0.153    6 0.5250   17  0.985    6  0.191    8  0.114
SHARKS       54 35 271 226  0.015 45.036    6  0.192    5  0.182    7  0.148    5 0.5277   14  0.999    4  0.203    9  0.093
KINGS        62 46 294 244  0.051 56.147    7  0.184    7  0.165    3  0.198    7 0.5240   28  0.730   18 -0.040    1  0.436
BLACKHAWKS   57 44 325 275  0.042 52.160    8  0.150    8  0.139    2  0.200    8 0.5203    2  1.139    1  0.423   15 -0.023
CANADIENS    56 43 266 250  0.012 50.128    9  0.117    9  0.119   12  0.048    9 0.5160   24  0.855   20 -0.059    7  0.155
RANGERS      58 48 280 248  0.008 53.409   10  0.081   10  0.085    8  0.118   10 0.5123   25  0.789   19 -0.059    3  0.296
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WILD         49 46 242 241  0.038 49.090   11  0.046   11  0.049   11  0.054   11 0.5085   27  0.745   26 -0.169    4  0.277
LIGHTNING    46 40 250 231 -0.027 42.210   12  0.038   12  0.035   14  0.039   12 0.5056   16  0.988   12  0.081   13 -0.003
BLUE JACKETS 45 43 249 237 -0.006 43.958   13  0.021   13  0.011   13  0.042   13 0.5019   15  0.989   11  0.085   12 -0.002
FLYERS       44 44 247 252 -0.005 44.093   14  0.008   14 -0.007   15 -0.017   14 0.4986    7  1.055    9  0.104   22 -0.138
STARS        42 46 253 248  0.026 45.046   15 -0.003   15 -0.025   10  0.066   15 0.4982   10  1.034    8  0.163   17 -0.030
PREDATORS    38 44 216 242  0.015 41.868   16 -0.032   16 -0.053   21 -0.096   16 0.4925   12  1.015   17 -0.023   25 -0.169
RED WINGS    40 47 228 244 -0.008 43.566   17 -0.053   17 -0.075   20 -0.063   18 0.4888   20  0.924   22 -0.094   18 -0.032
JETS         37 45 227 237  0.012 41.679   18 -0.054   18 -0.076   16 -0.044   17 0.4898   13  1.012   16  0.025   21 -0.114
CAPITALS     38 44 235 240 -0.022 40.588   19 -0.056   19 -0.078   18 -0.061   20 0.4883    9  1.044   15  0.047   24 -0.168
MAPLE LEAFS  38 44 231 256 -0.033 40.381   20 -0.064   20 -0.083   25 -0.137   21 0.4874    4  1.125   13  0.069   26 -0.344
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COYOTES      37 45 216 231 -0.004 41.173   21 -0.067   21 -0.087   17 -0.052   19 0.4883   19  0.929   21 -0.078   16 -0.027
SENATORS     37 45 236 265 -0.026 40.531   22 -0.084   22 -0.100   24 -0.105   23 0.4853    1  1.177    7  0.166   28 -0.377
CANUCKS      36 46 196 223 -0.002 41.308   23 -0.091   23 -0.106   22 -0.102   22 0.4854   26  0.786   28 -0.283   10  0.079
HURRICANES   36 46 207 230 -0.019 40.738   24 -0.106   24 -0.117   23 -0.105   24 0.4826   21  0.906   25 -0.156   19 -0.053
FLAMES       35 47 209 241 -0.001 41.432   25 -0.114   25 -0.124   26 -0.154   25 0.4825   18  0.955   24 -0.150   23 -0.158
DEVILS       35 47 197 208 -0.021 40.629   26 -0.127   26 -0.135   19 -0.061   26 0.4797   29  0.698   29 -0.331    6  0.209
ISLANDERS    34 48 225 267 -0.017 40.934   27 -0.155   27 -0.153   27 -0.172   27 0.4768    3  1.139   14  0.051   30 -0.395
OILERS       29 53 203 270  0.002 41.723   28 -0.240   28 -0.245   28 -0.270   28 0.4654    6  1.056   23 -0.149   29 -0.392
PANTHERS     29 53 196 268 -0.022 40.985   29 -0.251   29 -0.259   29 -0.293   29 0.4620   11  1.019   27 -0.215   27 -0.371
SABRES       21 61 157 248 -0.020 41.165   30 -0.438   30 -0.424   30 -0.404   30 0.4388   30  0.678   30 -0.694   20 -0.114

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DUCKS        61 34 301 246  0.019 48.138    1  0.249    1  0.255    4  0.184    1 0.5355    5  1.081    2  0.336   11  0.032
SHARKS       54 35 271 226  0.015 45.036    6  0.192    5  0.182    7  0.148    5 0.5277   14  0.999    4  0.203    9  0.093
KINGS        62 46 294 244  0.051 56.147    7  0.184    7  0.165    3  0.198    7 0.5240   28  0.730   18 -0.040    1  0.436
COYOTES      37 45 216 231 -0.004 41.173   21 -0.067   21 -0.087   17 -0.052   19 0.4883   19  0.929   21 -0.078   16 -0.027
CANUCKS      36 46 196 223 -0.002 41.308   23 -0.091   23 -0.106   22 -0.102   22 0.4854   26  0.786   28 -0.283   10  0.079
FLAMES       35 47 209 241 -0.001 41.432   25 -0.114   25 -0.124   26 -0.154   25 0.4825   18  0.955   24 -0.150   23 -0.158
OILERS       29 53 203 270  0.002 41.723   28 -0.240   28 -0.245   28 -0.270   28 0.4654    6  1.056   23 -0.149   29 -0.392

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUES        54 34 262 211  0.023 44.756    3  0.212    4  0.203    5  0.183    4 0.5293   22  0.871   10  0.094    5  0.273
AVALANCHE    55 34 270 242  0.015 45.092    4  0.211    3  0.204    9  0.110    3 0.5299    8  1.051    3  0.226   14 -0.005
BLACKHAWKS   57 44 325 275  0.042 52.160    8  0.150    8  0.139    2  0.200    8 0.5203    2  1.139    1  0.423   15 -0.023
WILD         49 46 242 241  0.038 49.090   11  0.046   11  0.049   11  0.054   11 0.5085   27  0.745   26 -0.169    4  0.277
STARS        42 46 253 248  0.026 45.046   15 -0.003   15 -0.025   10  0.066   15 0.4982   10  1.034    8  0.163   17 -0.030
PREDATORS    38 44 216 242  0.015 41.868   16 -0.032   16 -0.053   21 -0.096   16 0.4925   12  1.015   17 -0.023   25 -0.169
JETS         37 45 227 237  0.012 41.679   18 -0.054   18 -0.076   16 -0.044   17 0.4898   13  1.012   16  0.025   21 -0.114

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRUINS       61 33 291 203 -0.039 45.273    2  0.232    2  0.226    1  0.295    2 0.5322   23  0.861    5  0.194    2  0.395
CANADIENS    56 43 266 250  0.012 50.128    9  0.117    9  0.119   12  0.048    9 0.5160   24  0.855   20 -0.059    7  0.155
LIGHTNING    46 40 250 231 -0.027 42.210   12  0.038   12  0.035   14  0.039   12 0.5056   16  0.988   12  0.081   13 -0.003
RED WINGS    40 47 228 244 -0.008 43.566   17 -0.053   17 -0.075   20 -0.063   18 0.4888   20  0.924   22 -0.094   18 -0.032
MAPLE LEAFS  38 44 231 256 -0.033 40.381   20 -0.064   20 -0.083   25 -0.137   21 0.4874    4  1.125   13  0.069   26 -0.344
SENATORS     37 45 236 265 -0.026 40.531   22 -0.084   22 -0.100   24 -0.105   23 0.4853    1  1.177    7  0.166   28 -0.377
PANTHERS     29 53 196 268 -0.022 40.985   29 -0.251   29 -0.259   29 -0.293   29 0.4620   11  1.019   27 -0.215   27 -0.371
SABRES       21 61 157 248 -0.020 41.165   30 -0.438   30 -0.424   30 -0.404   30 0.4388   30  0.678   30 -0.694   20 -0.114

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PENGUINS     58 37 284 240 -0.005 47.294    5  0.194    6  0.182    6  0.153    6 0.5250   17  0.985    6  0.191    8  0.114
RANGERS      58 48 280 248  0.008 53.409   10  0.081   10  0.085    8  0.118   10 0.5123   25  0.789   19 -0.059    3  0.296
BLUE JACKETS 45 43 249 237 -0.006 43.958   13  0.021   13  0.011   13  0.042   13 0.5019   15  0.989   11  0.085   12 -0.002
FLYERS       44 44 247 252 -0.005 44.093   14  0.008   14 -0.007   15 -0.017   14 0.4986    7  1.055    9  0.104   22 -0.138
CAPITALS     38 44 235 240 -0.022 40.588   19 -0.056   19 -0.078   18 -0.061   20 0.4883    9  1.044   15  0.047   24 -0.168
HURRICANES   36 46 207 230 -0.019 40.738   24 -0.106   24 -0.117   23 -0.105   24 0.4826   21  0.906   25 -0.156   19 -0.053
DEVILS       35 47 197 208 -0.021 40.629   26 -0.127   26 -0.135   19 -0.061   26 0.4797   29  0.698   29 -0.331    6  0.209
ISLANDERS    34 48 225 267 -0.017 40.934   27 -0.155   27 -0.153   27 -0.172   27 0.4768    3  1.139   14  0.051   30 -0.395

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION      332 293 0.531    1  0.091
PACIFIC DIVISION      314 306 0.506    2 -0.009
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 348 357 0.494    3 -0.015
ATLANTIC DIVISION     328 366 0.473    4 -0.103

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.113 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.010 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:04:45 2024
games through: Fri Jun 13 2014

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