Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS      64 37 297 233  0.015 49.764    1  0.257    1  0.256    1  0.217    2 0.5322   19  0.889    8  0.159    3  0.275
DUCKS        62 36 293 268  0.005 48.034    2  0.247    2  0.243    9  0.098    1 0.5331    7  1.042    4  0.215   19 -0.019
BLACKHAWKS   64 41 298 249  0.043 52.966    3  0.244    3  0.231    3  0.174    3 0.5321   23  0.849   14  0.073    2  0.276
LIGHTNING    64 44 327 273  0.024 53.609    4  0.214    5  0.189    2  0.187    5 0.5252    6  1.054    2  0.318   14  0.056
BLUES        53 35 262 218  0.018 43.514    5  0.211    4  0.193    5  0.157    4 0.5263   13  0.945    7  0.161    7  0.152
CANADIENS    56 38 246 218  0.007 46.123    6  0.189    6  0.169    7  0.118    6 0.5225   29  0.731   23 -0.107    1  0.343
PREDATORS    49 39 253 227  0.023 43.744    7  0.120    7  0.115    8  0.108    7 0.5165   15  0.934   10  0.100   11  0.116
ISLANDERS    50 39 267 246  0.008 43.763    8  0.116    8  0.112   11  0.080   10 0.5139    4  1.096    3  0.262   22 -0.102
CANUCKS      50 38 256 240 -0.017 42.417    9  0.107    9  0.104   14  0.054    8 0.5149    8  1.039    6  0.168   21 -0.059
WILD         50 42 255 228  0.030 45.983   10  0.099   10  0.096    6  0.125    9 0.5143   18  0.894   13  0.073    6  0.177
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAPITALS     52 44 270 231  0.012 47.226   11  0.078   11  0.078    4  0.164   11 0.5109   22  0.857   15  0.072    4  0.257
FLAMES       50 43 268 249 -0.007 45.244   12  0.060   12  0.061   16  0.038   12 0.5099   10  0.975   12  0.077   17 -0.001
RED WINGS    46 43 250 238 -0.001 43.493   13  0.031   13  0.025   15  0.048   13 0.5033   11  0.951   16  0.060   15  0.036
JETS         43 43 239 226  0.017 42.625   14  0.022   15  0.010   13  0.066   14 0.5028   17  0.911   17  0.033   12  0.100
SENATORS     45 43 250 227 -0.010 42.607   15  0.021   16  0.010   10  0.088   16 0.5014   14  0.938   11  0.085   13  0.092
PENGUINS     44 43 229 221  0.003 42.699   16  0.021   14  0.011   17  0.024   17 0.5009   25  0.842   21 -0.084    9  0.133
BLUE JACKETS 42 40 236 250 -0.010 39.991   17  0.017   17  0.009   23 -0.090   18 0.5004    2  1.164    5  0.177   25 -0.358
STARS        41 41 261 260  0.013 40.559   18  0.016   18  0.006   18  0.024   15 0.5014    1  1.300    1  0.467   28 -0.420
BRUINS       41 41 213 211 -0.015 39.673   19  0.002   19 -0.015   19  0.001   19 0.4975   27  0.817   24 -0.136    8  0.137
KINGS        40 42 220 205 -0.016 39.551   20 -0.013   21 -0.035   12  0.068   20 0.4959   26  0.839   18 -0.045    5  0.181
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
AVALANCHE    39 43 219 227  0.015 40.733   21 -0.016   20 -0.035   21 -0.031   21 0.4957   16  0.925   19 -0.049   18 -0.014
SHARKS       40 42 228 232 -0.020 39.552   22 -0.019   22 -0.040   20 -0.010   22 0.4953    9  1.037    9  0.101   24 -0.122
PANTHERS     38 44 206 223 -0.022 39.583   23 -0.060   23 -0.083   22 -0.079   23 0.4883   21  0.859   26 -0.170   16  0.012
FLYERS       33 49 215 234 -0.016 39.816   24 -0.181   24 -0.183   24 -0.097   24 0.4740   12  0.950   22 -0.087   23 -0.107
DEVILS       32 50 181 216 -0.008 40.142   25 -0.197   25 -0.200   25 -0.135   25 0.4716   30  0.696   28 -0.395   10  0.125
HURRICANES   30 52 188 226 -0.008 40.200   26 -0.233   27 -0.245   26 -0.183   26 0.4658   28  0.807   27 -0.329   20 -0.037
MAPLE LEAFS  30 52 211 262 -0.012 40.154   27 -0.234   26 -0.245   27 -0.238   27 0.4655    3  1.101   20 -0.049   29 -0.427
OILERS       24 58 198 283 -0.013 40.303   28 -0.362   29 -0.376   28 -0.337   29 0.4489    5  1.083   25 -0.170   30 -0.504
COYOTES      24 58 170 272 -0.007 40.560   29 -0.367   28 -0.375   29 -0.450   28 0.4494   20  0.869   29 -0.530   26 -0.370
SABRES       23 59 161 274 -0.007 40.597   30 -0.393   30 -0.397   30 -0.495   30 0.4452   24  0.846   30 -0.599   27 -0.390
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DUCKS        62 36 293 268  0.005 48.034    2  0.247    2  0.243    9  0.098    1 0.5331    7  1.042    4  0.215   19 -0.019
CANUCKS      50 38 256 240 -0.017 42.417    9  0.107    9  0.104   14  0.054    8 0.5149    8  1.039    6  0.168   21 -0.059
FLAMES       50 43 268 249 -0.007 45.244   12  0.060   12  0.061   16  0.038   12 0.5099   10  0.975   12  0.077   17 -0.001
KINGS        40 42 220 205 -0.016 39.551   20 -0.013   21 -0.035   12  0.068   20 0.4959   26  0.839   18 -0.045    5  0.181
SHARKS       40 42 228 232 -0.020 39.552   22 -0.019   22 -0.040   20 -0.010   22 0.4953    9  1.037    9  0.101   24 -0.122
OILERS       24 58 198 283 -0.013 40.303   28 -0.362   29 -0.376   28 -0.337   29 0.4489    5  1.083   25 -0.170   30 -0.504
COYOTES      24 58 170 272 -0.007 40.560   29 -0.367   28 -0.375   29 -0.450   28 0.4494   20  0.869   29 -0.530   26 -0.370

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLACKHAWKS   64 41 298 249  0.043 52.966    3  0.244    3  0.231    3  0.174    3 0.5321   23  0.849   14  0.073    2  0.276
BLUES        53 35 262 218  0.018 43.514    5  0.211    4  0.193    5  0.157    4 0.5263   13  0.945    7  0.161    7  0.152
PREDATORS    49 39 253 227  0.023 43.744    7  0.120    7  0.115    8  0.108    7 0.5165   15  0.934   10  0.100   11  0.116
WILD         50 42 255 228  0.030 45.983   10  0.099   10  0.096    6  0.125    9 0.5143   18  0.894   13  0.073    6  0.177
JETS         43 43 239 226  0.017 42.625   14  0.022   15  0.010   13  0.066   14 0.5028   17  0.911   17  0.033   12  0.100
STARS        41 41 261 260  0.013 40.559   18  0.016   18  0.006   18  0.024   15 0.5014    1  1.300    1  0.467   28 -0.420
AVALANCHE    39 43 219 227  0.015 40.733   21 -0.016   20 -0.035   21 -0.031   21 0.4957   16  0.925   19 -0.049   18 -0.014

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING    64 44 327 273  0.024 53.609    4  0.214    5  0.189    2  0.187    5 0.5252    6  1.054    2  0.318   14  0.056
CANADIENS    56 38 246 218  0.007 46.123    6  0.189    6  0.169    7  0.118    6 0.5225   29  0.731   23 -0.107    1  0.343
RED WINGS    46 43 250 238 -0.001 43.493   13  0.031   13  0.025   15  0.048   13 0.5033   11  0.951   16  0.060   15  0.036
SENATORS     45 43 250 227 -0.010 42.607   15  0.021   16  0.010   10  0.088   16 0.5014   14  0.938   11  0.085   13  0.092
BRUINS       41 41 213 211 -0.015 39.673   19  0.002   19 -0.015   19  0.001   19 0.4975   27  0.817   24 -0.136    8  0.137
PANTHERS     38 44 206 223 -0.022 39.583   23 -0.060   23 -0.083   22 -0.079   23 0.4883   21  0.859   26 -0.170   16  0.012
MAPLE LEAFS  30 52 211 262 -0.012 40.154   27 -0.234   26 -0.245   27 -0.238   27 0.4655    3  1.101   20 -0.049   29 -0.427
SABRES       23 59 161 274 -0.007 40.597   30 -0.393   30 -0.397   30 -0.495   30 0.4452   24  0.846   30 -0.599   27 -0.390

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS      64 37 297 233  0.015 49.764    1  0.257    1  0.256    1  0.217    2 0.5322   19  0.889    8  0.159    3  0.275
ISLANDERS    50 39 267 246  0.008 43.763    8  0.116    8  0.112   11  0.080   10 0.5139    4  1.096    3  0.262   22 -0.102
CAPITALS     52 44 270 231  0.012 47.226   11  0.078   11  0.078    4  0.164   11 0.5109   22  0.857   15  0.072    4  0.257
PENGUINS     44 43 229 221  0.003 42.699   16  0.021   14  0.011   17  0.024   17 0.5009   25  0.842   21 -0.084    9  0.133
BLUE JACKETS 42 40 236 250 -0.010 39.991   17  0.017   17  0.009   23 -0.090   18 0.5004    2  1.164    5  0.177   25 -0.358
FLYERS       33 49 215 234 -0.016 39.816   24 -0.181   24 -0.183   24 -0.097   24 0.4740   12  0.950   22 -0.087   23 -0.107
DEVILS       32 50 181 216 -0.008 40.142   25 -0.197   25 -0.200   25 -0.135   25 0.4716   30  0.696   28 -0.395   10  0.125
HURRICANES   30 52 188 226 -0.008 40.200   26 -0.233   27 -0.245   26 -0.183   26 0.4658   28  0.807   27 -0.329   20 -0.037

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION      339 284 0.544    1  0.115
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 347 354 0.495    2 -0.003
ATLANTIC DIVISION     343 364 0.485    3 -0.056
PACIFIC DIVISION      290 317 0.478    4 -0.094

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.095 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jul 25 18:18:03 2020
games through: Mon Jun 15 2015

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