Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CAPITALS     62 32 281 215  0.002 47.246    1  0.839    1  0.191    1  0.166    1 0.5401  0.895  0.108  0.225  0.000
PENGUINS     64 42 318 258  0.030 54.476    2  0.718    2  0.144    2  0.147    2 0.5296  0.958  0.159  0.135  0.000
STARS        57 38 302 272  0.007 48.024    3  0.624    3  0.120    4  0.102    3 0.5242  1.200  0.407 -0.203  0.000
BLUES        59 43 281 257  0.030 52.517    4  0.578    4  0.109    6  0.081    4 0.5220  0.858 -0.018  0.180  0.000
LIGHTNING    57 42 275 241  0.001 49.819    5  0.517    5  0.089    7  0.079    5 0.5189  0.887  0.011  0.146  0.000
SHARKS       60 46 316 266  0.008 53.595    6  0.499    6  0.084    3  0.131    6 0.5173  1.004  0.196  0.067  0.000
BLACKHAWKS   50 39 255 228  0.007 45.040    7  0.477    7  0.071    8  0.069    7 0.5159  0.943  0.064  0.074  0.000
KINGS        49 38 236 211 -0.009 43.471    8  0.464    8  0.064   10  0.056    8 0.5135  0.831 -0.072  0.185  0.000
PANTHERS     49 39 253 218 -0.013 43.803    9  0.450    9  0.056    5  0.091    9 0.5130  0.925  0.066  0.117  0.000
RANGERS      47 40 246 238  0.008 44.094   10  0.435   10  0.045   11  0.033   10 0.5113  1.032  0.131 -0.065  0.000
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DUCKS        49 40 236 206 -0.023 43.964   11  0.432   12  0.043    9  0.064   12 0.5093  0.772 -0.127  0.255  0.000
ISLANDERS    50 43 258 248  0.008 47.175   12  0.430   11  0.043   15  0.013   11 0.5103  0.950  0.015  0.011  0.000
PREDATORS    48 48 259 258  0.023 49.270   13  0.400   13  0.006   14  0.016   13 0.5016  0.937  0.003  0.028  0.000
BRUINS       42 40 240 230 -0.018 40.719   14  0.396   14 -0.000   13  0.025   14 0.5009  1.081  0.181 -0.131  0.000
FLYERS       43 45 220 232  0.013 44.892   15  0.386   15 -0.014   16 -0.034   15 0.4997  0.814 -0.181  0.113  0.000
RED WINGS    42 45 219 236 -0.004 43.798   16  0.374   16 -0.028   17 -0.041   16 0.4953  0.868 -0.130  0.048  0.000
AVALANCHE    39 43 216 240  0.001 41.461   17  0.368   17 -0.033   20 -0.061   17 0.4934  1.046  0.053 -0.176  0.000
SENATORS     38 44 236 247 -0.010 41.082   18  0.346   19 -0.052   18 -0.042   20 0.4899  1.122  0.165 -0.248  0.000
WILD         40 48 233 227  0.008 44.627   19  0.345   21 -0.055   12  0.027   19 0.4902  0.866 -0.064  0.118  0.000
CANADIENS    38 44 221 236 -0.012 41.051   20  0.344   20 -0.052   19 -0.054   21 0.4896  1.035  0.047 -0.156  0.000
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DEVILS       38 44 184 208 -0.009 41.167   21  0.343   18 -0.052   23 -0.088   18 0.4904  0.689 -0.363  0.188  0.000
JETS         35 47 215 239  0.001 41.485   22  0.272   22 -0.087   21 -0.073   23 0.4819  1.011 -0.000 -0.146  0.000
HURRICANES   35 47 198 226 -0.004 41.346   23  0.264   23 -0.090   24 -0.090   22 0.4824  0.823 -0.227  0.047  0.000
SABRES       35 47 201 222 -0.012 41.076   24  0.258   24 -0.093   22 -0.073   24 0.4809  0.858 -0.173  0.026  0.000
COYOTES      35 47 209 245 -0.011 41.146   25  0.255   25 -0.093   25 -0.099   25 0.4804  1.012 -0.025 -0.173  0.000
FLAMES       35 47 231 260 -0.015 40.997   26  0.250   26 -0.095   26 -0.101   26 0.4799  1.165  0.159 -0.362  0.000
BLUE JACKETS 34 48 219 252 -0.005 41.329   27  0.218   27 -0.105   27 -0.113   27 0.4792  1.096  0.061 -0.288  0.000
CANUCKS      31 51 191 243 -0.007 41.338   28  0.069   28 -0.147   30 -0.168   28 0.4688  0.878 -0.246 -0.091  0.000
OILERS       31 51 203 245 -0.013 41.124   29  0.064   29 -0.150   28 -0.151   29 0.4684  0.960 -0.137 -0.166  0.000
MAPLE LEAFS  29 53 198 246 -0.004 41.434   30  0.000   30 -0.173   29 -0.154   30 0.4639  0.938 -0.165 -0.143  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SHARKS       60 46 316 266  0.008 53.595    6  0.499    6  0.084    3  0.131    6 0.5173  1.004  0.196  0.067  0.000
KINGS        49 38 236 211 -0.009 43.471    8  0.464    8  0.064   10  0.056    8 0.5135  0.831 -0.072  0.185  0.000
DUCKS        49 40 236 206 -0.023 43.964   11  0.432   12  0.043    9  0.064   12 0.5093  0.772 -0.127  0.255  0.000
COYOTES      35 47 209 245 -0.011 41.146   25  0.255   25 -0.093   25 -0.099   25 0.4804  1.012 -0.025 -0.173  0.000
FLAMES       35 47 231 260 -0.015 40.997   26  0.250   26 -0.095   26 -0.101   26 0.4799  1.165  0.159 -0.362  0.000
CANUCKS      31 51 191 243 -0.007 41.338   28  0.069   28 -0.147   30 -0.168   28 0.4688  0.878 -0.246 -0.091  0.000
OILERS       31 51 203 245 -0.013 41.124   29  0.064   29 -0.150   28 -0.151   29 0.4684  0.960 -0.137 -0.166  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
STARS        57 38 302 272  0.007 48.024    3  0.624    3  0.120    4  0.102    3 0.5242  1.200  0.407 -0.203  0.000
BLUES        59 43 281 257  0.030 52.517    4  0.578    4  0.109    6  0.081    4 0.5220  0.858 -0.018  0.180  0.000
BLACKHAWKS   50 39 255 228  0.007 45.040    7  0.477    7  0.071    8  0.069    7 0.5159  0.943  0.064  0.074  0.000
PREDATORS    48 48 259 258  0.023 49.270   13  0.400   13  0.006   14  0.016   13 0.5016  0.937  0.003  0.028  0.000
AVALANCHE    39 43 216 240  0.001 41.461   17  0.368   17 -0.033   20 -0.061   17 0.4934  1.046  0.053 -0.176  0.000
WILD         40 48 233 227  0.008 44.627   19  0.345   21 -0.055   12  0.027   19 0.4902  0.866 -0.064  0.118  0.000
JETS         35 47 215 239  0.001 41.485   22  0.272   22 -0.087   21 -0.073   23 0.4819  1.011 -0.000 -0.146  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LIGHTNING    57 42 275 241  0.001 49.819    5  0.517    5  0.089    7  0.079    5 0.5189  0.887  0.011  0.146  0.000
PANTHERS     49 39 253 218 -0.013 43.803    9  0.450    9  0.056    5  0.091    9 0.5130  0.925  0.066  0.117  0.000
BRUINS       42 40 240 230 -0.018 40.719   14  0.396   14 -0.000   13  0.025   14 0.5009  1.081  0.181 -0.131  0.000
RED WINGS    42 45 219 236 -0.004 43.798   16  0.374   16 -0.028   17 -0.041   16 0.4953  0.868 -0.130  0.048  0.000
SENATORS     38 44 236 247 -0.010 41.082   18  0.346   19 -0.052   18 -0.042   20 0.4899  1.122  0.165 -0.248  0.000
CANADIENS    38 44 221 236 -0.012 41.051   20  0.344   20 -0.052   19 -0.054   21 0.4896  1.035  0.047 -0.156  0.000
SABRES       35 47 201 222 -0.012 41.076   24  0.258   24 -0.093   22 -0.073   24 0.4809  0.858 -0.173  0.026  0.000
MAPLE LEAFS  29 53 198 246 -0.004 41.434   30  0.000   30 -0.173   29 -0.154   30 0.4639  0.938 -0.165 -0.143  0.000

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CAPITALS     62 32 281 215  0.002 47.246    1  0.839    1  0.191    1  0.166    1 0.5401  0.895  0.108  0.225  0.000
PENGUINS     64 42 318 258  0.030 54.476    2  0.718    2  0.144    2  0.147    2 0.5296  0.958  0.159  0.135  0.000
RANGERS      47 40 246 238  0.008 44.094   10  0.435   10  0.045   11  0.033   10 0.5113  1.032  0.131 -0.065  0.000
ISLANDERS    50 43 258 248  0.008 47.175   12  0.430   11  0.043   15  0.013   11 0.5103  0.950  0.015  0.011  0.000
FLYERS       43 45 220 232  0.013 44.892   15  0.386   15 -0.014   16 -0.034   15 0.4997  0.814 -0.181  0.113  0.000
DEVILS       38 44 184 208 -0.009 41.167   21  0.343   18 -0.052   23 -0.088   18 0.4904  0.689 -0.363  0.188  0.000
HURRICANES   35 47 198 226 -0.004 41.346   23  0.264   23 -0.090   24 -0.090   22 0.4824  0.823 -0.227  0.047  0.000
BLUE JACKETS 34 48 219 252 -0.005 41.329   27  0.218   27 -0.105   27 -0.113   27 0.4792  1.096  0.061 -0.288  0.000

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION      328 306 0.517    1  0.044
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 373 341 0.522    2  0.010
ATLANTIC DIVISION     330 354 0.482    3 -0.032
PACIFIC DIVISION      290 320 0.475    4 -0.065

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.092 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.008 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Jun 27 19:35:48 2016
games through: Sun Jun 12 2016

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.