Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAPITALS     62 32 281 215  0.001 47.245    1  0.241    1  0.190    1  0.165    1 0.5401   19  0.887    8  0.100    2  0.231
PENGUINS     64 42 318 258  0.029 54.476    2  0.176    2  0.142    2  0.145    2 0.5296   13  0.955    6  0.155    7  0.136
STARS        57 38 302 272  0.006 48.025    3  0.126    3  0.119    4  0.101    3 0.5242    1  1.200    1  0.408   27 -0.206
BLUES        59 43 281 257  0.028 52.519    4  0.103    4  0.108    6  0.080    4 0.5220   24  0.858   18 -0.018    5  0.178
LIGHTNING    57 42 275 241 -0.001 49.818    5  0.071    5  0.088    7  0.077    5 0.5189   20  0.885   15  0.009    6  0.145
SHARKS       60 46 316 266  0.007 53.595    6  0.062    6  0.083    3  0.130    6 0.5173   11  1.003    2  0.196   12  0.065
BLACKHAWKS   50 39 255 228  0.006 45.040    7  0.051    7  0.070    8  0.068    7 0.5159   15  0.940   10  0.061   11  0.074
KINGS        49 38 236 211 -0.010 43.472    8  0.044    8  0.063   10  0.055    8 0.5135   26  0.830   21 -0.072    4  0.182
PANTHERS     49 39 253 218 -0.014 43.802    9  0.037    9  0.054    5  0.090    9 0.5130   18  0.924    9  0.065    9  0.115
RANGERS      47 40 246 238  0.007 44.094   10  0.029   10  0.044   11  0.032   10 0.5113    8  1.032    7  0.131   18 -0.067
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DUCKS        49 40 236 206 -0.024 43.964   11  0.028   12  0.041    9  0.063   12 0.5093   29  0.770   22 -0.128    1  0.254
ISLANDERS    50 43 258 248  0.007 47.174   12  0.027   11  0.042   15  0.012   11 0.5103   14  0.949   14  0.015   17  0.008
PREDATORS    48 48 259 258  0.022 49.272   13  0.011   13  0.004   14  0.014   13 0.5016   16  0.936   16  0.003   15  0.026
BRUINS       42 40 240 230 -0.019 40.719   14  0.009   14 -0.002   13  0.024   14 0.5009    5  1.081    3  0.182   20 -0.134
FLYERS       43 45 220 232  0.012 44.892   15  0.004   15 -0.015   16 -0.035   15 0.4997   28  0.814   27 -0.180   10  0.110
RED WINGS    42 45 219 236 -0.005 43.798   16 -0.002   16 -0.029   17 -0.042   16 0.4953   22  0.867   23 -0.130   13  0.046
AVALANCHE    39 43 216 240 -0.001 41.462   17 -0.006   17 -0.034   20 -0.062   17 0.4934    6  1.046   12  0.054   26 -0.179
SENATORS     38 44 236 247 -0.011 41.082   18 -0.017   19 -0.053   18 -0.043   20 0.4899    3  1.121    4  0.165   28 -0.251
WILD         40 48 233 227  0.007 44.628   19 -0.018   21 -0.056   12  0.026   19 0.4902   23  0.865   20 -0.065    8  0.116
CANADIENS    38 44 221 236 -0.013 41.051   20 -0.018   20 -0.053   19 -0.056   21 0.4896    7  1.035   13  0.048   23 -0.159
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DEVILS       38 44 184 208 -0.011 41.167   21 -0.019   18 -0.053   23 -0.089   18 0.4904   30  0.687   30 -0.364    3  0.186
JETS         35 47 215 239 -0.001 41.485   22 -0.057   22 -0.088   21 -0.075   23 0.4819   10  1.010   17 -0.001   22 -0.148
HURRICANES   35 47 198 226 -0.005 41.346   23 -0.061   23 -0.091   24 -0.091   22 0.4824   27  0.822   28 -0.228   14  0.046
SABRES       35 47 201 222 -0.013 41.076   24 -0.064   24 -0.094   22 -0.075   24 0.4809   25  0.857   26 -0.173   16  0.024
COYOTES      35 47 209 245 -0.012 41.146   25 -0.066   25 -0.095   25 -0.100   25 0.4804    9  1.010   19 -0.027   25 -0.174
FLAMES       35 47 231 260 -0.017 40.998   26 -0.069   26 -0.096   26 -0.103   26 0.4799    2  1.163    5  0.158   30 -0.363
BLUE JACKETS 34 48 219 252 -0.007 41.329   27 -0.086   27 -0.106   27 -0.115   27 0.4792    4  1.093   11  0.058   29 -0.288
CANUCKS      31 51 191 243 -0.008 41.338   28 -0.165   28 -0.148   30 -0.169   28 0.4688   21  0.873   29 -0.250   19 -0.088
OILERS       31 51 203 245 -0.015 41.124   29 -0.167   29 -0.151   28 -0.152   29 0.4684   12  0.956   24 -0.141   24 -0.163
MAPLE LEAFS  29 53 198 246 -0.005 41.434   30 -0.201   30 -0.174   29 -0.155   30 0.4639   17  0.934   25 -0.169   21 -0.141
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SHARKS       60 46 316 266  0.007 53.595    6  0.062    6  0.083    3  0.130    6 0.5173   11  1.003    2  0.196   12  0.065
KINGS        49 38 236 211 -0.010 43.472    8  0.044    8  0.063   10  0.055    8 0.5135   26  0.830   21 -0.072    4  0.182
DUCKS        49 40 236 206 -0.024 43.964   11  0.028   12  0.041    9  0.063   12 0.5093   29  0.770   22 -0.128    1  0.254
COYOTES      35 47 209 245 -0.012 41.146   25 -0.066   25 -0.095   25 -0.100   25 0.4804    9  1.010   19 -0.027   25 -0.174
FLAMES       35 47 231 260 -0.017 40.998   26 -0.069   26 -0.096   26 -0.103   26 0.4799    2  1.163    5  0.158   30 -0.363
CANUCKS      31 51 191 243 -0.008 41.338   28 -0.165   28 -0.148   30 -0.169   28 0.4688   21  0.873   29 -0.250   19 -0.088
OILERS       31 51 203 245 -0.015 41.124   29 -0.167   29 -0.151   28 -0.152   29 0.4684   12  0.956   24 -0.141   24 -0.163

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
STARS        57 38 302 272  0.006 48.025    3  0.126    3  0.119    4  0.101    3 0.5242    1  1.200    1  0.408   27 -0.206
BLUES        59 43 281 257  0.028 52.519    4  0.103    4  0.108    6  0.080    4 0.5220   24  0.858   18 -0.018    5  0.178
BLACKHAWKS   50 39 255 228  0.006 45.040    7  0.051    7  0.070    8  0.068    7 0.5159   15  0.940   10  0.061   11  0.074
PREDATORS    48 48 259 258  0.022 49.272   13  0.011   13  0.004   14  0.014   13 0.5016   16  0.936   16  0.003   15  0.026
AVALANCHE    39 43 216 240 -0.001 41.462   17 -0.006   17 -0.034   20 -0.062   17 0.4934    6  1.046   12  0.054   26 -0.179
WILD         40 48 233 227  0.007 44.628   19 -0.018   21 -0.056   12  0.026   19 0.4902   23  0.865   20 -0.065    8  0.116
JETS         35 47 215 239 -0.001 41.485   22 -0.057   22 -0.088   21 -0.075   23 0.4819   10  1.010   17 -0.001   22 -0.148

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING    57 42 275 241 -0.001 49.818    5  0.071    5  0.088    7  0.077    5 0.5189   20  0.885   15  0.009    6  0.145
PANTHERS     49 39 253 218 -0.014 43.802    9  0.037    9  0.054    5  0.090    9 0.5130   18  0.924    9  0.065    9  0.115
BRUINS       42 40 240 230 -0.019 40.719   14  0.009   14 -0.002   13  0.024   14 0.5009    5  1.081    3  0.182   20 -0.134
RED WINGS    42 45 219 236 -0.005 43.798   16 -0.002   16 -0.029   17 -0.042   16 0.4953   22  0.867   23 -0.130   13  0.046
SENATORS     38 44 236 247 -0.011 41.082   18 -0.017   19 -0.053   18 -0.043   20 0.4899    3  1.121    4  0.165   28 -0.251
CANADIENS    38 44 221 236 -0.013 41.051   20 -0.018   20 -0.053   19 -0.056   21 0.4896    7  1.035   13  0.048   23 -0.159
SABRES       35 47 201 222 -0.013 41.076   24 -0.064   24 -0.094   22 -0.075   24 0.4809   25  0.857   26 -0.173   16  0.024
MAPLE LEAFS  29 53 198 246 -0.005 41.434   30 -0.201   30 -0.174   29 -0.155   30 0.4639   17  0.934   25 -0.169   21 -0.141

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAPITALS     62 32 281 215  0.001 47.245    1  0.241    1  0.190    1  0.165    1 0.5401   19  0.887    8  0.100    2  0.231
PENGUINS     64 42 318 258  0.029 54.476    2  0.176    2  0.142    2  0.145    2 0.5296   13  0.955    6  0.155    7  0.136
RANGERS      47 40 246 238  0.007 44.094   10  0.029   10  0.044   11  0.032   10 0.5113    8  1.032    7  0.131   18 -0.067
ISLANDERS    50 43 258 248  0.007 47.174   12  0.027   11  0.042   15  0.012   11 0.5103   14  0.949   14  0.015   17  0.008
FLYERS       43 45 220 232  0.012 44.892   15  0.004   15 -0.015   16 -0.035   15 0.4997   28  0.814   27 -0.180   10  0.110
DEVILS       38 44 184 208 -0.011 41.167   21 -0.019   18 -0.053   23 -0.089   18 0.4904   30  0.687   30 -0.364    3  0.186
HURRICANES   35 47 198 226 -0.005 41.346   23 -0.061   23 -0.091   24 -0.091   22 0.4824   27  0.822   28 -0.228   14  0.046
BLUE JACKETS 34 48 219 252 -0.007 41.329   27 -0.086   27 -0.106   27 -0.115   27 0.4792    4  1.093   11  0.058   29 -0.288

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION      328 306 0.517    1  0.043
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 373 341 0.522    2  0.008
ATLANTIC DIVISION     330 354 0.482    3 -0.033
PACIFIC DIVISION      290 320 0.475    4 -0.066

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.092 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.008 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:05:18 2024
games through: Sun Jun 12 2016

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