Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING      65 34 346 284 -0.005 49.184    1  0.273    1  0.261    5  0.187    1 0.5381    2  1.199    1  0.384   14 -0.009
PREDATORS      60 35 308 253  0.038 48.798    2  0.263    2  0.243    2  0.239    2 0.5345   17  1.031    5  0.228    2  0.250
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 64 38 329 275  0.034 52.272    3  0.261    3  0.240    3  0.198    3 0.5333   12  1.066    6  0.228    7  0.168
JETS           61 38 330 260  0.046 51.044    4  0.256    4  0.228    1  0.267    4 0.5323   13  1.060    2  0.291    3  0.244
CAPITALS       65 41 345 300  0.017 53.718    5  0.242    5  0.207    6  0.139    5 0.5312   10  1.078    8  0.183   10  0.094
BRUINS         55 39 311 251 -0.003 46.763    6  0.162    6  0.137    4  0.189    6 0.5211   20  1.021    9  0.166    5  0.213
MAPLE LEAFS    52 37 297 260 -0.007 44.250    7  0.144    7  0.131    9  0.110    7 0.5192    4  1.154    4  0.248   15 -0.029
SHARKS         51 41 282 255  0.013 46.477    8  0.096    9  0.095    8  0.112    9 0.5138   21  1.016   11  0.082    9  0.141
PENGUINS       53 41 314 284 -0.013 46.563    9  0.095    8  0.095   10  0.083    8 0.5154    3  1.176    3  0.250   23 -0.084
WILD           46 41 262 248  0.030 44.605   10  0.060   10  0.061   11  0.072   10 0.5090   19  1.027   13  0.056   11  0.088
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUES          44 38 226 222  0.009 41.486   11  0.058   11  0.061   15  0.006   11 0.5089   29  0.888   24 -0.168    6  0.180
BLUE JACKETS   47 41 260 254 -0.011 43.817   12  0.042   12  0.046   17  0.001   12 0.5083   23  0.972   18 -0.079   12  0.080
KINGS          45 41 242 210  0.007 43.243   13  0.040   13  0.039    7  0.121   13 0.5059   31  0.796   23 -0.153    1  0.395
PANTHERS       44 38 248 246 -0.029 40.220   14  0.036   14  0.035   16  0.003   14 0.5058    8  1.086   12  0.057   18 -0.052
AVALANCHE      45 43 272 259  0.028 45.079   15  0.032   15  0.031   12  0.068   15 0.5051    7  1.103   10  0.142   13 -0.007
STARS          42 40 235 225  0.009 41.413   16  0.025   16  0.020   14  0.034   17 0.5031   28  0.937   19 -0.086    8  0.154
DEVILS         45 42 260 262 -0.008 43.467   17  0.023   17  0.019   18 -0.025   16 0.5044   15  1.050   15 -0.014   16 -0.035
DUCKS          44 42 239 232  0.004 43.267   18  0.023   18  0.018   13  0.050   18 0.5023   30  0.882   22 -0.132    4  0.231
FLYERS         44 44 266 271 -0.015 43.743   19  0.002   19 -0.014   19 -0.037   19 0.4991   11  1.069   14 -0.003   21 -0.071
FLAMES         37 45 218 248 -0.005 41.238   20 -0.063   20 -0.086   22 -0.122   20 0.4870   24  0.972   26 -0.203   17 -0.041
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
OILERS         36 46 234 263 -0.003 41.333   21 -0.087   21 -0.105   26 -0.157   21 0.4841    6  1.111   16 -0.072   28 -0.242
HURRICANES     36 46 228 256 -0.023 40.582   22 -0.099   22 -0.117   20 -0.094   22 0.4834   18  1.031   20 -0.105   22 -0.083
ISLANDERS      35 47 264 296 -0.022 40.693   23 -0.127   23 -0.136   23 -0.147   23 0.4805    1  1.329    7  0.221   31 -0.515
BLACKHAWKS     33 49 229 256  0.014 41.818   24 -0.145   24 -0.152   21 -0.095   25 0.4773   14  1.059   17 -0.073   24 -0.116
RANGERS        34 48 231 268 -0.022 40.713   25 -0.150   25 -0.155   25 -0.156   24 0.4776    9  1.079   21 -0.110   27 -0.203
CANUCKS        31 51 218 264  0.001 41.498   26 -0.200   26 -0.202   28 -0.179   26 0.4699   16  1.046   25 -0.173   26 -0.185
RED WINGS      30 52 217 255 -0.027 40.545   27 -0.227   27 -0.239   24 -0.149   27 0.4651   25  0.962   28 -0.242   20 -0.057
COYOTES        29 53 208 256  0.002 41.518   28 -0.228   28 -0.241   27 -0.169   28 0.4643   27  0.940   29 -0.285   19 -0.052
CANADIENS      29 53 209 264 -0.027 40.741   29 -0.243   29 -0.261   29 -0.243   29 0.4622   26  0.956   30 -0.342   25 -0.145
SENATORS       28 54 221 291 -0.026 40.871   30 -0.256   30 -0.277   30 -0.308   30 0.4593    5  1.118   27 -0.213   30 -0.402
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SABRES         25 57 199 280 -0.025 40.897   31 -0.307   31 -0.335   31 -0.321   31 0.4505   22  0.990   31 -0.381   29 -0.261

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 64 38 329 275  0.034 52.272    3  0.261    3  0.240    3  0.198    3 0.5333   12  1.066    6  0.228    7  0.168
SHARKS         51 41 282 255  0.013 46.477    8  0.096    9  0.095    8  0.112    9 0.5138   21  1.016   11  0.082    9  0.141
KINGS          45 41 242 210  0.007 43.243   13  0.040   13  0.039    7  0.121   13 0.5059   31  0.796   23 -0.153    1  0.395
DUCKS          44 42 239 232  0.004 43.267   18  0.023   18  0.018   13  0.050   18 0.5023   30  0.882   22 -0.132    4  0.231
FLAMES         37 45 218 248 -0.005 41.238   20 -0.063   20 -0.086   22 -0.122   20 0.4870   24  0.972   26 -0.203   17 -0.041
OILERS         36 46 234 263 -0.003 41.333   21 -0.087   21 -0.105   26 -0.157   21 0.4841    6  1.111   16 -0.072   28 -0.242
CANUCKS        31 51 218 264  0.001 41.498   26 -0.200   26 -0.202   28 -0.179   26 0.4699   16  1.046   25 -0.173   26 -0.185
COYOTES        29 53 208 256  0.002 41.518   28 -0.228   28 -0.241   27 -0.169   28 0.4643   27  0.940   29 -0.285   19 -0.052

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PREDATORS      60 35 308 253  0.038 48.798    2  0.263    2  0.243    2  0.239    2 0.5345   17  1.031    5  0.228    2  0.250
JETS           61 38 330 260  0.046 51.044    4  0.256    4  0.228    1  0.267    4 0.5323   13  1.060    2  0.291    3  0.244
WILD           46 41 262 248  0.030 44.605   10  0.060   10  0.061   11  0.072   10 0.5090   19  1.027   13  0.056   11  0.088
BLUES          44 38 226 222  0.009 41.486   11  0.058   11  0.061   15  0.006   11 0.5089   29  0.888   24 -0.168    6  0.180
AVALANCHE      45 43 272 259  0.028 45.079   15  0.032   15  0.031   12  0.068   15 0.5051    7  1.103   10  0.142   13 -0.007
STARS          42 40 235 225  0.009 41.413   16  0.025   16  0.020   14  0.034   17 0.5031   28  0.937   19 -0.086    8  0.154
BLACKHAWKS     33 49 229 256  0.014 41.818   24 -0.145   24 -0.152   21 -0.095   25 0.4773   14  1.059   17 -0.073   24 -0.116

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING      65 34 346 284 -0.005 49.184    1  0.273    1  0.261    5  0.187    1 0.5381    2  1.199    1  0.384   14 -0.009
BRUINS         55 39 311 251 -0.003 46.763    6  0.162    6  0.137    4  0.189    6 0.5211   20  1.021    9  0.166    5  0.213
MAPLE LEAFS    52 37 297 260 -0.007 44.250    7  0.144    7  0.131    9  0.110    7 0.5192    4  1.154    4  0.248   15 -0.029
PANTHERS       44 38 248 246 -0.029 40.220   14  0.036   14  0.035   16  0.003   14 0.5058    8  1.086   12  0.057   18 -0.052
RED WINGS      30 52 217 255 -0.027 40.545   27 -0.227   27 -0.239   24 -0.149   27 0.4651   25  0.962   28 -0.242   20 -0.057
CANADIENS      29 53 209 264 -0.027 40.741   29 -0.243   29 -0.261   29 -0.243   29 0.4622   26  0.956   30 -0.342   25 -0.145
SENATORS       28 54 221 291 -0.026 40.871   30 -0.256   30 -0.277   30 -0.308   30 0.4593    5  1.118   27 -0.213   30 -0.402
SABRES         25 57 199 280 -0.025 40.897   31 -0.307   31 -0.335   31 -0.321   31 0.4505   22  0.990   31 -0.381   29 -0.261

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAPITALS       65 41 345 300  0.017 53.718    5  0.242    5  0.207    6  0.139    5 0.5312   10  1.078    8  0.183   10  0.094
PENGUINS       53 41 314 284 -0.013 46.563    9  0.095    8  0.095   10  0.083    8 0.5154    3  1.176    3  0.250   23 -0.084
BLUE JACKETS   47 41 260 254 -0.011 43.817   12  0.042   12  0.046   17  0.001   12 0.5083   23  0.972   18 -0.079   12  0.080
DEVILS         45 42 260 262 -0.008 43.467   17  0.023   17  0.019   18 -0.025   16 0.5044   15  1.050   15 -0.014   16 -0.035
FLYERS         44 44 266 271 -0.015 43.743   19  0.002   19 -0.014   19 -0.037   19 0.4991   11  1.069   14 -0.003   21 -0.071
HURRICANES     36 46 228 256 -0.023 40.582   22 -0.099   22 -0.117   20 -0.094   22 0.4834   18  1.031   20 -0.105   22 -0.083
ISLANDERS      35 47 264 296 -0.022 40.693   23 -0.127   23 -0.136   23 -0.147   23 0.4805    1  1.329    7  0.221   31 -0.515
RANGERS        34 48 231 268 -0.022 40.713   25 -0.150   25 -0.155   25 -0.156   24 0.4776    9  1.079   21 -0.110   27 -0.203

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION      331 284 0.538    1  0.115
PACIFIC DIVISION      337 357 0.486    2 -0.023
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 359 350 0.506    3 -0.038
ATLANTIC DIVISION     328 364 0.474    4 -0.089

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.119 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jul 25 18:18:07 2020
games through: Thu Jun  7 2018

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