Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING      62 24 333 241 -0.004 42.551    1  0.330    1  0.331    1  0.273    1 0.5531    4  1.259    1  0.535   14  0.010
BRUINS         64 42 338 266  0.022 53.645    2  0.224    2  0.179    2  0.240    2 0.5282   25  0.925   10  0.094    3  0.385
BLUE JACKETS   53 39 288 257  0.030 47.046    3  0.145    3  0.131    6  0.102    3 0.5217   17  1.040   11  0.090    8  0.115
BLUES          61 47 322 293  0.027 55.096    4  0.127    4  0.119    4  0.123    5 0.5183   22  0.972   15  0.031    5  0.215
ISLANDERS      52 38 247 215  0.002 45.014    5  0.125    5  0.117    5  0.111    4 0.5190   31  0.715   26 -0.257    1  0.479
FLAMES         51 36 300 244 -0.021 42.670    6  0.123    6  0.114    3  0.152    6 0.5181   10  1.164    4  0.292   13  0.012
CAPITALS       51 38 298 270 -0.002 44.410    7  0.113    7  0.108    8  0.088    7 0.5181    7  1.192    6  0.263   19 -0.087
HURRICANES     54 43 284 265  0.024 49.439    8  0.098    8  0.100   13  0.064    8 0.5164   23  0.946   18 -0.057    7  0.186
MAPLE LEAFS    49 40 303 274  0.020 45.180    9  0.082    9  0.085    9  0.081    9 0.5137    6  1.233    3  0.309   21 -0.147
JETS           49 39 288 260  0.001 44.073   10  0.078   10  0.083   14  0.057   10 0.5136    9  1.170    7  0.204   20 -0.090
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PREDATORS      49 39 252 232 -0.001 43.958   11  0.077   11  0.082   10  0.071   11 0.5134   26  0.920   20 -0.080    4  0.222
SHARKS         56 46 347 327  0.002 51.128   12  0.065   12  0.075   16  0.054   12 0.5107    2  1.277    2  0.340   27 -0.233
CANADIENS      44 38 249 236 -0.007 40.833   13  0.043   13  0.045   17  0.034   13 0.5081   20  1.023   17  0.002   10  0.067
STARS          50 45 245 232  0.011 47.957   14  0.039   14  0.045   15  0.056   14 0.5076   30  0.721   28 -0.306    2  0.418
PENGUINS       44 42 279 255 -0.001 42.946   15  0.020   15  0.012    7  0.091   15 0.5031   11  1.141    8  0.202   16 -0.020
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 46 43 274 253 -0.016 43.937   16  0.019   16  0.011   11  0.070   16 0.5027   19  1.029   14  0.044    9  0.095
AVALANCHE      45 49 295 277  0.011 47.425   17 -0.004   17 -0.031   12  0.067   17 0.4958   15  1.059   13  0.078   12  0.056
COYOTES        39 43 213 223 -0.023 40.466   18 -0.027   18 -0.054   19 -0.062   18 0.4919   29  0.816   29 -0.326    6  0.202
WILD           37 45 211 237 -0.005 41.137   19 -0.052   19 -0.078   21 -0.112   20 0.4876   27  0.897   27 -0.288   11  0.065
FLYERS         37 45 244 281 -0.004 41.215   20 -0.053   20 -0.079   23 -0.143   19 0.4878    8  1.185   16  0.024   29 -0.309
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLACKHAWKS     36 46 270 292 -0.004 41.085   21 -0.073   21 -0.097   20 -0.073   22 0.4846    1  1.328    5  0.282   30 -0.429
PANTHERS       36 46 267 280 -0.006 41.002   22 -0.074   22 -0.098   18 -0.039   21 0.4848    5  1.242    9  0.201   28 -0.278
CANUCKS        35 47 225 254 -0.015 40.847   23 -0.104   23 -0.119   22 -0.141   23 0.4807   21  0.977   25 -0.227   17 -0.055
OILERS         35 47 232 274 -0.017 40.798   24 -0.109   25 -0.122   24 -0.145   24 0.4806   12  1.107   19 -0.077   26 -0.213
DUCKS          35 47 199 251 -0.016 40.873   25 -0.111   24 -0.122   30 -0.207   25 0.4804   28  0.870   31 -0.413   15 -0.001
SABRES         33 49 226 271 -0.003 41.319   26 -0.149   26 -0.150   28 -0.179   26 0.4761   18  1.036   24 -0.196   23 -0.161
RED WINGS      32 50 227 277 -0.003 41.299   27 -0.170   27 -0.168   26 -0.169   28 0.4732   13  1.069   21 -0.146   25 -0.191
RANGERS        32 50 227 272 -0.004 41.234   28 -0.170   28 -0.168   25 -0.152   27 0.4733   16  1.053   22 -0.148   22 -0.155
DEVILS         31 51 222 275 -0.003 41.283   29 -0.193   29 -0.189   27 -0.176   29 0.4704   14  1.061   23 -0.163   24 -0.188
KINGS          31 51 202 263 -0.014 40.951   30 -0.198   30 -0.194   31 -0.208   30 0.4689   24  0.934   30 -0.344   18 -0.073
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SENATORS       29 53 242 302 -0.002 41.348   31 -0.221   31 -0.224   29 -0.192   31 0.4645    3  1.266   12  0.079   31 -0.464

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
FLAMES         51 36 300 244 -0.021 42.670    6  0.123    6  0.114    3  0.152    6 0.5181   10  1.164    4  0.292   13  0.012
SHARKS         56 46 347 327  0.002 51.128   12  0.065   12  0.075   16  0.054   12 0.5107    2  1.277    2  0.340   27 -0.233
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 46 43 274 253 -0.016 43.937   16  0.019   16  0.011   11  0.070   16 0.5027   19  1.029   14  0.044    9  0.095
COYOTES        39 43 213 223 -0.023 40.466   18 -0.027   18 -0.054   19 -0.062   18 0.4919   29  0.816   29 -0.326    6  0.202
CANUCKS        35 47 225 254 -0.015 40.847   23 -0.104   23 -0.119   22 -0.141   23 0.4807   21  0.977   25 -0.227   17 -0.055
OILERS         35 47 232 274 -0.017 40.798   24 -0.109   25 -0.122   24 -0.145   24 0.4806   12  1.107   19 -0.077   26 -0.213
DUCKS          35 47 199 251 -0.016 40.873   25 -0.111   24 -0.122   30 -0.207   25 0.4804   28  0.870   31 -0.413   15 -0.001
KINGS          31 51 202 263 -0.014 40.951   30 -0.198   30 -0.194   31 -0.208   30 0.4689   24  0.934   30 -0.344   18 -0.073

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUES          61 47 322 293  0.027 55.096    4  0.127    4  0.119    4  0.123    5 0.5183   22  0.972   15  0.031    5  0.215
JETS           49 39 288 260  0.001 44.073   10  0.078   10  0.083   14  0.057   10 0.5136    9  1.170    7  0.204   20 -0.090
PREDATORS      49 39 252 232 -0.001 43.958   11  0.077   11  0.082   10  0.071   11 0.5134   26  0.920   20 -0.080    4  0.222
STARS          50 45 245 232  0.011 47.957   14  0.039   14  0.045   15  0.056   14 0.5076   30  0.721   28 -0.306    2  0.418
AVALANCHE      45 49 295 277  0.011 47.425   17 -0.004   17 -0.031   12  0.067   17 0.4958   15  1.059   13  0.078   12  0.056
WILD           37 45 211 237 -0.005 41.137   19 -0.052   19 -0.078   21 -0.112   20 0.4876   27  0.897   27 -0.288   11  0.065
BLACKHAWKS     36 46 270 292 -0.004 41.085   21 -0.073   21 -0.097   20 -0.073   22 0.4846    1  1.328    5  0.282   30 -0.429

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING      62 24 333 241 -0.004 42.551    1  0.330    1  0.331    1  0.273    1 0.5531    4  1.259    1  0.535   14  0.010
BRUINS         64 42 338 266  0.022 53.645    2  0.224    2  0.179    2  0.240    2 0.5282   25  0.925   10  0.094    3  0.385
MAPLE LEAFS    49 40 303 274  0.020 45.180    9  0.082    9  0.085    9  0.081    9 0.5137    6  1.233    3  0.309   21 -0.147
CANADIENS      44 38 249 236 -0.007 40.833   13  0.043   13  0.045   17  0.034   13 0.5081   20  1.023   17  0.002   10  0.067
PANTHERS       36 46 267 280 -0.006 41.002   22 -0.074   22 -0.098   18 -0.039   21 0.4848    5  1.242    9  0.201   28 -0.278
SABRES         33 49 226 271 -0.003 41.319   26 -0.149   26 -0.150   28 -0.179   26 0.4761   18  1.036   24 -0.196   23 -0.161
RED WINGS      32 50 227 277 -0.003 41.299   27 -0.170   27 -0.168   26 -0.169   28 0.4732   13  1.069   21 -0.146   25 -0.191
SENATORS       29 53 242 302 -0.002 41.348   31 -0.221   31 -0.224   29 -0.192   31 0.4645    3  1.266   12  0.079   31 -0.464

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUE JACKETS   53 39 288 257  0.030 47.046    3  0.145    3  0.131    6  0.102    3 0.5217   17  1.040   11  0.090    8  0.115
ISLANDERS      52 38 247 215  0.002 45.014    5  0.125    5  0.117    5  0.111    4 0.5190   31  0.715   26 -0.257    1  0.479
CAPITALS       51 38 298 270 -0.002 44.410    7  0.113    7  0.108    8  0.088    7 0.5181    7  1.192    6  0.263   19 -0.087
HURRICANES     54 43 284 265  0.024 49.439    8  0.098    8  0.100   13  0.064    8 0.5164   23  0.946   18 -0.057    7  0.186
PENGUINS       44 42 279 255 -0.001 42.946   15  0.020   15  0.012    7  0.091   15 0.5031   11  1.141    8  0.202   16 -0.020
FLYERS         37 45 244 281 -0.004 41.215   20 -0.053   20 -0.079   23 -0.143   19 0.4878    8  1.185   16  0.024   29 -0.309
RANGERS        32 50 227 272 -0.004 41.234   28 -0.170   28 -0.168   25 -0.152   27 0.4733   16  1.053   22 -0.148   22 -0.155
DEVILS         31 51 222 275 -0.003 41.283   29 -0.193   29 -0.189   27 -0.176   29 0.4704   14  1.061   23 -0.163   24 -0.188

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION      327 310 0.513    1  0.040
ATLANTIC DIVISION     349 342 0.505    2  0.009
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 354 346 0.506    3  0.000
PACIFIC DIVISION      328 360 0.477    4 -0.086

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.124 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.009 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jul 25 18:18:10 2020
games through: Wed Jun 12 2019

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