Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING      62 24 333 241 -0.003 42.555    1  0.330    1  0.332    1  0.274    1 0.5531    4  1.259    1  0.536   14  0.011
BRUINS         64 42 338 266  0.023 53.638    2  0.224    2  0.180    2  0.241    2 0.5282   25  0.925   10  0.095    3  0.386
BLUE JACKETS   53 39 288 257  0.031 47.046    3  0.145    3  0.132    6  0.103    3 0.5217   17  1.040   11  0.091    8  0.116
BLUES          61 47 322 293  0.028 55.094    4  0.127    4  0.120    4  0.124    5 0.5183   22  0.972   15  0.032    5  0.216
ISLANDERS      52 38 247 215  0.003 45.010    5  0.125    5  0.118    5  0.112    4 0.5190   31  0.715   26 -0.256    1  0.480
FLAMES         51 36 300 244 -0.020 42.662    6  0.123    6  0.115    3  0.153    6 0.5181   10  1.164    4  0.293   13  0.013
CAPITALS       51 38 298 270 -0.001 44.407    7  0.113    7  0.109    8  0.089    7 0.5181    7  1.192    6  0.264   19 -0.086
HURRICANES     54 43 284 265  0.025 49.448    8  0.098    8  0.101   13  0.066    8 0.5164   23  0.946   18 -0.056    7  0.187
MAPLE LEAFS    49 40 303 274  0.021 45.185    9  0.082    9  0.086    9  0.082    9 0.5137    6  1.233    3  0.310   21 -0.146
JETS           49 39 288 260  0.002 44.065   10  0.078   10  0.084   14  0.058   10 0.5136    9  1.169    7  0.204   20 -0.089
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PREDATORS      49 39 252 232 -0.001 43.949   11  0.076   11  0.083   10  0.072   11 0.5134   26  0.920   20 -0.079    4  0.223
SHARKS         56 46 347 327  0.003 51.122   12  0.064   12  0.076   16  0.054   12 0.5107    2  1.277    2  0.341   27 -0.232
CANADIENS      44 38 249 236 -0.006 40.831   13  0.042   13  0.046   17  0.035   13 0.5081   20  1.023   17  0.003   10  0.067
STARS          50 45 245 232  0.012 47.955   14  0.038   14  0.045   15  0.057   14 0.5076   30  0.721   28 -0.305    2  0.419
PENGUINS       44 42 279 255  0.000 42.952   15  0.020   15  0.013    7  0.092   15 0.5031   11  1.141    8  0.203   16 -0.019
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 46 43 274 253 -0.015 43.928   16  0.019   16  0.012   11  0.070   16 0.5027   19  1.029   14  0.044    9  0.096
AVALANCHE      45 49 295 277  0.012 47.423   17 -0.005   17 -0.030   12  0.068   17 0.4958   15  1.059   13  0.079   12  0.057
COYOTES        39 43 213 223 -0.022 40.460   18 -0.028   18 -0.054   19 -0.061   18 0.4919   29  0.816   29 -0.325    6  0.203
WILD           37 45 211 237 -0.004 41.132   19 -0.052   19 -0.077   21 -0.111   20 0.4876   27  0.897   27 -0.287   11  0.065
FLYERS         37 45 244 281 -0.003 41.215   20 -0.053   20 -0.078   23 -0.142   19 0.4878    8  1.185   16  0.025   29 -0.309
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLACKHAWKS     36 46 270 292 -0.004 41.083   21 -0.073   21 -0.096   20 -0.072   22 0.4846    1  1.328    5  0.283   30 -0.428
PANTHERS       36 46 267 280 -0.005 41.001   22 -0.073   22 -0.097   18 -0.038   21 0.4848    5  1.242    9  0.202   28 -0.278
CANUCKS        35 47 225 254 -0.014 40.846   23 -0.104   23 -0.119   22 -0.140   23 0.4807   21  0.977   25 -0.226   17 -0.054
OILERS         35 47 232 274 -0.016 40.796   24 -0.108   25 -0.122   24 -0.144   24 0.4806   12  1.107   19 -0.076   26 -0.213
DUCKS          35 47 199 251 -0.015 40.872   25 -0.111   24 -0.121   30 -0.206   25 0.4804   28  0.870   31 -0.412   15 -0.000
SABRES         33 49 226 271 -0.002 41.318   26 -0.148   26 -0.150   28 -0.178   26 0.4761   18  1.036   24 -0.195   23 -0.160
RED WINGS      32 50 227 277 -0.002 41.301   27 -0.170   27 -0.167   26 -0.168   28 0.4732   13  1.069   21 -0.145   25 -0.190
RANGERS        32 50 227 272 -0.003 41.234   28 -0.170   28 -0.167   25 -0.151   27 0.4733   16  1.053   22 -0.147   22 -0.155
DEVILS         31 51 222 275 -0.002 41.283   29 -0.193   29 -0.188   27 -0.175   29 0.4704   14  1.061   23 -0.162   24 -0.188
KINGS          31 51 202 263 -0.013 40.949   30 -0.198   30 -0.193   31 -0.208   30 0.4689   24  0.934   30 -0.343   18 -0.072
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SENATORS       29 53 242 302 -0.001 41.350   31 -0.221   31 -0.223   29 -0.192   31 0.4645    3  1.266   12  0.080   31 -0.463

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
FLAMES         51 36 300 244 -0.020 42.662    6  0.123    6  0.115    3  0.153    6 0.5181   10  1.164    4  0.293   13  0.013
SHARKS         56 46 347 327  0.003 51.122   12  0.064   12  0.076   16  0.054   12 0.5107    2  1.277    2  0.341   27 -0.232
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 46 43 274 253 -0.015 43.928   16  0.019   16  0.012   11  0.070   16 0.5027   19  1.029   14  0.044    9  0.096
COYOTES        39 43 213 223 -0.022 40.460   18 -0.028   18 -0.054   19 -0.061   18 0.4919   29  0.816   29 -0.325    6  0.203
CANUCKS        35 47 225 254 -0.014 40.846   23 -0.104   23 -0.119   22 -0.140   23 0.4807   21  0.977   25 -0.226   17 -0.054
OILERS         35 47 232 274 -0.016 40.796   24 -0.108   25 -0.122   24 -0.144   24 0.4806   12  1.107   19 -0.076   26 -0.213
DUCKS          35 47 199 251 -0.015 40.872   25 -0.111   24 -0.121   30 -0.206   25 0.4804   28  0.870   31 -0.412   15 -0.000
KINGS          31 51 202 263 -0.013 40.949   30 -0.198   30 -0.193   31 -0.208   30 0.4689   24  0.934   30 -0.343   18 -0.072

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUES          61 47 322 293  0.028 55.094    4  0.127    4  0.120    4  0.124    5 0.5183   22  0.972   15  0.032    5  0.216
JETS           49 39 288 260  0.002 44.065   10  0.078   10  0.084   14  0.058   10 0.5136    9  1.169    7  0.204   20 -0.089
PREDATORS      49 39 252 232 -0.001 43.949   11  0.076   11  0.083   10  0.072   11 0.5134   26  0.920   20 -0.079    4  0.223
STARS          50 45 245 232  0.012 47.955   14  0.038   14  0.045   15  0.057   14 0.5076   30  0.721   28 -0.305    2  0.419
AVALANCHE      45 49 295 277  0.012 47.423   17 -0.005   17 -0.030   12  0.068   17 0.4958   15  1.059   13  0.079   12  0.057
WILD           37 45 211 237 -0.004 41.132   19 -0.052   19 -0.077   21 -0.111   20 0.4876   27  0.897   27 -0.287   11  0.065
BLACKHAWKS     36 46 270 292 -0.004 41.083   21 -0.073   21 -0.096   20 -0.072   22 0.4846    1  1.328    5  0.283   30 -0.428

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING      62 24 333 241 -0.003 42.555    1  0.330    1  0.332    1  0.274    1 0.5531    4  1.259    1  0.536   14  0.011
BRUINS         64 42 338 266  0.023 53.638    2  0.224    2  0.180    2  0.241    2 0.5282   25  0.925   10  0.095    3  0.386
MAPLE LEAFS    49 40 303 274  0.021 45.185    9  0.082    9  0.086    9  0.082    9 0.5137    6  1.233    3  0.310   21 -0.146
CANADIENS      44 38 249 236 -0.006 40.831   13  0.042   13  0.046   17  0.035   13 0.5081   20  1.023   17  0.003   10  0.067
PANTHERS       36 46 267 280 -0.005 41.001   22 -0.073   22 -0.097   18 -0.038   21 0.4848    5  1.242    9  0.202   28 -0.278
SABRES         33 49 226 271 -0.002 41.318   26 -0.148   26 -0.150   28 -0.178   26 0.4761   18  1.036   24 -0.195   23 -0.160
RED WINGS      32 50 227 277 -0.002 41.301   27 -0.170   27 -0.167   26 -0.168   28 0.4732   13  1.069   21 -0.145   25 -0.190
SENATORS       29 53 242 302 -0.001 41.350   31 -0.221   31 -0.223   29 -0.192   31 0.4645    3  1.266   12  0.080   31 -0.463

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUE JACKETS   53 39 288 257  0.031 47.046    3  0.145    3  0.132    6  0.103    3 0.5217   17  1.040   11  0.091    8  0.116
ISLANDERS      52 38 247 215  0.003 45.010    5  0.125    5  0.118    5  0.112    4 0.5190   31  0.715   26 -0.256    1  0.480
CAPITALS       51 38 298 270 -0.001 44.407    7  0.113    7  0.109    8  0.089    7 0.5181    7  1.192    6  0.264   19 -0.086
HURRICANES     54 43 284 265  0.025 49.448    8  0.098    8  0.101   13  0.066    8 0.5164   23  0.946   18 -0.056    7  0.187
PENGUINS       44 42 279 255  0.000 42.952   15  0.020   15  0.013    7  0.092   15 0.5031   11  1.141    8  0.203   16 -0.019
FLYERS         37 45 244 281 -0.003 41.215   20 -0.053   20 -0.078   23 -0.142   19 0.4878    8  1.185   16  0.025   29 -0.309
RANGERS        32 50 227 272 -0.003 41.234   28 -0.170   28 -0.167   25 -0.151   27 0.4733   16  1.053   22 -0.147   22 -0.155
DEVILS         31 51 222 275 -0.002 41.283   29 -0.193   29 -0.188   27 -0.175   29 0.4704   14  1.061   23 -0.162   24 -0.188

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION      327 310 0.513    1  0.041
ATLANTIC DIVISION     349 342 0.505    2  0.010
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 354 346 0.506    3  0.002
PACIFIC DIVISION      328 360 0.477    4 -0.085

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.124 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.009 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:06:08 2024
games through: Wed Jun 12 2019

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