Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING      61 34 323 252  0.032 48.183    1  0.266    1  0.261    2  0.242    1 0.5373   10  1.112    2  0.323    7  0.160
FLYERS         51 34 270 236  0.012 42.540    2  0.190    2  0.169    4  0.120    4 0.5243   16  1.057   10  0.133    9  0.106
AVALANCHE      51 34 297 232  0.004 42.107    3  0.186    3  0.162    1  0.248    2 0.5253    7  1.179    1  0.414   11  0.083
BRUINS         49 34 256 213  0.033 42.078    4  0.183    4  0.161    3  0.219    3 0.5250   27  0.898   17  0.051    1  0.388
CAPITALS       43 34 253 239  0.036 39.345    5  0.114    6  0.111    9  0.072    5 0.5176    4  1.204    4  0.269   20 -0.125
STARS          52 44 258 259  0.066 50.339    6  0.112    5  0.112   12  0.021    6 0.5160   30  0.794   26 -0.259    3  0.302
HURRICANES     42 34 244 212  0.015 38.127    7  0.088    7  0.088    5  0.114    8 0.5137   17  1.050   12  0.120    8  0.108
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 51 40 284 255 -0.013 44.697    8  0.082    8  0.087    7  0.096    7 0.5143   20  1.039   13  0.088   10  0.103
BLUES          44 36 247 225  0.012 40.065    9  0.081    9  0.083    6  0.112    9 0.5136   22  1.003   16  0.062    6  0.161
PENGUINS       41 32 232 206 -0.014 35.846   10  0.081   10  0.082   10  0.053   10 0.5128   15  1.057   14  0.068   12  0.038
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ISLANDERS      48 42 258 244  0.034 45.895   11  0.068   11  0.074    8  0.081   11 0.5126   29  0.854   22 -0.136    4  0.298
CANUCKS        46 40 276 262  0.001 42.829   12  0.049   12  0.054   14  0.010   12 0.5082    9  1.144   11  0.132   19 -0.111
FLAMES         41 39 243 242 -0.009 39.537   13  0.017   13  0.010   16 -0.002   13 0.5026   12  1.099   15  0.063   16 -0.068
MAPLE LEAFS    38 37 248 239 -0.012 36.932   14  0.011   14  0.001   11  0.040   16 0.4994    3  1.234    3  0.276   27 -0.196
RANGERS        37 36 238 233 -0.009 36.055   15  0.010   15  0.001   13  0.015   14 0.5001    2  1.243    6  0.263   28 -0.233
OILERS         38 37 240 233 -0.019 36.790   16  0.006   16 -0.006   18 -0.005   17 0.4993    5  1.185    7  0.169   25 -0.178
JETS           38 37 222 219 -0.021 36.722   17  0.005   17 -0.007   15 -0.000   15 0.4997   18  1.043   19 -0.003   14  0.002
PANTHERS       36 37 238 241  0.001 36.427   18  0.001   18 -0.013   22 -0.019   18 0.4981    1  1.269    5  0.263   30 -0.302
WILD           36 37 230 232 -0.009 36.125   19 -0.004   19 -0.020   19 -0.006   19 0.4977    6  1.183    8  0.165   24 -0.177
PREDATORS      36 37 226 231 -0.017 35.843   20 -0.008   20 -0.026   17 -0.005   20 0.4965    8  1.163    9  0.141   22 -0.150
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COYOTES        37 42 217 220  0.016 39.879   21 -0.022   21 -0.045   21 -0.011   21 0.4930   28  0.881   24 -0.199    5  0.176
BLUE JACKETS   37 43 204 211  0.001 39.869   22 -0.038   22 -0.063   20 -0.006   22 0.4905   31  0.692   30 -0.390    2  0.378
BLACKHAWKS     36 43 239 248  0.012 39.811   23 -0.042   23 -0.067   24 -0.049   23 0.4903   11  1.111   18  0.031   21 -0.129
CANADIENS      36 45 235 240  0.004 40.511   24 -0.072   24 -0.095   23 -0.027   24 0.4875   21  1.004   20 -0.075   13  0.021
SABRES         30 39 195 217 -0.029 33.775   25 -0.110   25 -0.123   25 -0.113   25 0.4812   19  1.039   21 -0.121   18 -0.106
KINGS          29 41 178 212 -0.011 34.797   26 -0.133   26 -0.141   27 -0.176   26 0.4780   26  0.899   29 -0.344   15 -0.008
SHARKS         29 41 182 226 -0.022 34.513   27 -0.145   27 -0.150   29 -0.210   27 0.4770   23  0.997   28 -0.266   23 -0.154
DEVILS         28 41 189 230 -0.013 34.248   28 -0.148   29 -0.154   26 -0.165   29 0.4756   14  1.061   23 -0.146   26 -0.183
DUCKS          29 42 187 226 -0.015 35.199   29 -0.149   28 -0.154   28 -0.181   28 0.4762   24  0.978   27 -0.260   17 -0.103
SENATORS       25 46 191 243 -0.035 34.788   30 -0.239   30 -0.255   30 -0.239   30 0.4606   13  1.076   25 -0.202   29 -0.276
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RED WINGS      17 54 145 267 -0.030 35.146   31 -0.439   31 -0.432   31 -0.541   31 0.4330   25  0.944   31 -0.658   31 -0.423

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 51 40 284 255 -0.013 44.697    8  0.082    8  0.087    7  0.096    7 0.5143   20  1.039   13  0.088   10  0.103
CANUCKS        46 40 276 262  0.001 42.829   12  0.049   12  0.054   14  0.010   12 0.5082    9  1.144   11  0.132   19 -0.111
FLAMES         41 39 243 242 -0.009 39.537   13  0.017   13  0.010   16 -0.002   13 0.5026   12  1.099   15  0.063   16 -0.068
OILERS         38 37 240 233 -0.019 36.790   16  0.006   16 -0.006   18 -0.005   17 0.4993    5  1.185    7  0.169   25 -0.178
COYOTES        37 42 217 220  0.016 39.879   21 -0.022   21 -0.045   21 -0.011   21 0.4930   28  0.881   24 -0.199    5  0.176
KINGS          29 41 178 212 -0.011 34.797   26 -0.133   26 -0.141   27 -0.176   26 0.4780   26  0.899   29 -0.344   15 -0.008
SHARKS         29 41 182 226 -0.022 34.513   27 -0.145   27 -0.150   29 -0.210   27 0.4770   23  0.997   28 -0.266   23 -0.154
DUCKS          29 42 187 226 -0.015 35.199   29 -0.149   28 -0.154   28 -0.181   28 0.4762   24  0.978   27 -0.260   17 -0.103

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
AVALANCHE      51 34 297 232  0.004 42.107    3  0.186    3  0.162    1  0.248    2 0.5253    7  1.179    1  0.414   11  0.083
STARS          52 44 258 259  0.066 50.339    6  0.112    5  0.112   12  0.021    6 0.5160   30  0.794   26 -0.259    3  0.302
BLUES          44 36 247 225  0.012 40.065    9  0.081    9  0.083    6  0.112    9 0.5136   22  1.003   16  0.062    6  0.161
JETS           38 37 222 219 -0.021 36.722   17  0.005   17 -0.007   15 -0.000   15 0.4997   18  1.043   19 -0.003   14  0.002
WILD           36 37 230 232 -0.009 36.125   19 -0.004   19 -0.020   19 -0.006   19 0.4977    6  1.183    8  0.165   24 -0.177
PREDATORS      36 37 226 231 -0.017 35.843   20 -0.008   20 -0.026   17 -0.005   20 0.4965    8  1.163    9  0.141   22 -0.150
BLACKHAWKS     36 43 239 248  0.012 39.811   23 -0.042   23 -0.067   24 -0.049   23 0.4903   11  1.111   18  0.031   21 -0.129

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING      61 34 323 252  0.032 48.183    1  0.266    1  0.261    2  0.242    1 0.5373   10  1.112    2  0.323    7  0.160
BRUINS         49 34 256 213  0.033 42.078    4  0.183    4  0.161    3  0.219    3 0.5250   27  0.898   17  0.051    1  0.388
MAPLE LEAFS    38 37 248 239 -0.012 36.932   14  0.011   14  0.001   11  0.040   16 0.4994    3  1.234    3  0.276   27 -0.196
PANTHERS       36 37 238 241  0.001 36.427   18  0.001   18 -0.013   22 -0.019   18 0.4981    1  1.269    5  0.263   30 -0.302
CANADIENS      36 45 235 240  0.004 40.511   24 -0.072   24 -0.095   23 -0.027   24 0.4875   21  1.004   20 -0.075   13  0.021
SABRES         30 39 195 217 -0.029 33.775   25 -0.110   25 -0.123   25 -0.113   25 0.4812   19  1.039   21 -0.121   18 -0.106
SENATORS       25 46 191 243 -0.035 34.788   30 -0.239   30 -0.255   30 -0.239   30 0.4606   13  1.076   25 -0.202   29 -0.276
RED WINGS      17 54 145 267 -0.030 35.146   31 -0.439   31 -0.432   31 -0.541   31 0.4330   25  0.944   31 -0.658   31 -0.423

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
FLYERS         51 34 270 236  0.012 42.540    2  0.190    2  0.169    4  0.120    4 0.5243   16  1.057   10  0.133    9  0.106
CAPITALS       43 34 253 239  0.036 39.345    5  0.114    6  0.111    9  0.072    5 0.5176    4  1.204    4  0.269   20 -0.125
HURRICANES     42 34 244 212  0.015 38.127    7  0.088    7  0.088    5  0.114    8 0.5137   17  1.050   12  0.120    8  0.108
PENGUINS       41 32 232 206 -0.014 35.846   10  0.081   10  0.082   10  0.053   10 0.5128   15  1.057   14  0.068   12  0.038
ISLANDERS      48 42 258 244  0.034 45.895   11  0.068   11  0.074    8  0.081   11 0.5126   29  0.854   22 -0.136    4  0.298
RANGERS        37 36 238 233 -0.009 36.055   15  0.010   15  0.001   13  0.015   14 0.5001    2  1.243    6  0.263   28 -0.233
BLUE JACKETS   37 43 204 211  0.001 39.869   22 -0.038   22 -0.063   20 -0.006   22 0.4905   31  0.692   30 -0.390    2  0.378
DEVILS         28 41 189 230 -0.013 34.248   28 -0.148   29 -0.154   26 -0.165   29 0.4756   14  1.061   23 -0.146   26 -0.183

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION      293 268 0.522    1  0.066
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 327 296 0.525    2  0.052
ATLANTIC DIVISION     292 326 0.472    3 -0.073
PACIFIC DIVISION      300 322 0.482    4 -0.081

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.119 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.009 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed Sep 30 18:23:24 2020
games through: Mon Sep 28 2020

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