Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
AVALANCHE      72 30 397 289  0.037 51.804    1  0.491    1  0.465    1  0.379    1 0.5525    8  1.215    3  0.529    6  0.229
PANTHERS       62 30 363 278  0.004 45.632    2  0.380    2  0.364    4  0.300    2 0.5412    2  1.298    1  0.561   14  0.040
LIGHTNING      65 40 354 294  0.068 54.895    3  0.314    3  0.306    7  0.251    3 0.5362   22  1.035    8  0.178    4  0.325
HURRICANES     61 35 315 242  0.014 48.063    4  0.302    4  0.288    5  0.278    4 0.5342   26  0.964   11  0.123    2  0.434
MAPLE LEAFS    57 32 339 276  0.001 44.105    5  0.297    5  0.281    6  0.256    5 0.5337    1  1.312    2  0.535   19 -0.024
WILD           55 33 326 275  0.015 44.262    6  0.283    6  0.265    9  0.192    6 0.5304    6  1.258    6  0.399   17 -0.015
RANGERS        62 40 316 265  0.043 52.395    7  0.278    7  0.259    8  0.234    7 0.5292   30  0.921   15  0.030    1  0.438
BRUINS         54 35 275 244  0.002 44.480    8  0.245    8  0.221   13  0.108    8 0.5257   27  0.962   17 -0.049    5  0.266
BLUES          55 39 351 280  0.027 47.450    9  0.222    9  0.188    2  0.306    9 0.5234    7  1.226    4  0.471   12  0.141
OILERS         57 41 355 311  0.029 49.907   10  0.218   10  0.187   11  0.168   10 0.5218    3  1.290    5  0.417   21 -0.081
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
FLAMES         55 39 328 247 -0.008 46.215   11  0.203   11  0.161    3  0.304   11 0.5200   20  1.041    7  0.238    3  0.370
STARS          49 40 252 261  0.015 45.285   12  0.112   12  0.114   20 -0.052   12 0.5123   31  0.920   25 -0.258   11  0.154
PENGUINS       49 40 301 257  0.006 44.479   13  0.103   13  0.101   10  0.169   13 0.5121   16  1.096    9  0.169   10  0.169
PREDATORS      45 41 275 273  0.014 43.556   14  0.054   14  0.056   16  0.025   14 0.5072   11  1.131   12  0.069   18 -0.019
KINGS          47 42 256 263 -0.003 44.556   15  0.049   15  0.052   18 -0.008   16 0.5061   28  0.926   20 -0.206    9  0.191
CAPITALS       46 42 294 265  0.010 44.200   16  0.048   16  0.048   12  0.137   15 0.5061   14  1.101   10  0.144   13  0.131
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 43 39 266 248 -0.016 40.516   17  0.034   17  0.033   15  0.036   17 0.5035   13  1.111   13  0.055   15  0.017
CANUCKS        40 42 249 236 -0.012 40.656   18 -0.024   18 -0.039   14  0.041   18 0.4950   25  0.967   19 -0.111    8  0.193
JETS           39 43 252 257 -0.009 40.898   19 -0.045   19 -0.060   19 -0.032   19 0.4932   17  1.078   18 -0.053   16 -0.010
BLUE JACKETS   37 45 262 300 -0.014 41.020   20 -0.100   20 -0.110   22 -0.190   20 0.4863    4  1.278   14  0.043   28 -0.423
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ISLANDERS      37 45 231 237 -0.022 40.426   21 -0.102   21 -0.121   17 -0.006   21 0.4855   32  0.909   21 -0.223    7  0.212
SENATORS       33 49 227 266 -0.013 41.130   22 -0.196   22 -0.206   23 -0.205   22 0.4755   24  1.028   26 -0.286   23 -0.125
RED WINGS      32 50 230 312 -0.014 41.360   23 -0.223   23 -0.233   29 -0.334   23 0.4729   10  1.174   23 -0.236   29 -0.432
SHARKS         32 50 214 264 -0.018 41.017   24 -0.225   24 -0.237   24 -0.236   25 0.4715   29  0.925   31 -0.435   20 -0.036
SABRES         32 50 232 290 -0.022 40.936   25 -0.227   25 -0.239   26 -0.262   24 0.4718   12  1.117   22 -0.235   26 -0.288
DUCKS          31 51 232 271 -0.015 41.002   26 -0.245   26 -0.263   21 -0.172   26 0.4688   21  1.036   24 -0.244   22 -0.100
BLACKHAWKS     28 54 219 291 -0.015 41.326   27 -0.316   27 -0.338   28 -0.327   27 0.4608   23  1.034   30 -0.401   24 -0.252
DEVILS         27 55 248 307 -0.014 41.202   28 -0.336   28 -0.359   25 -0.258   28 0.4575    5  1.267   16 -0.039   30 -0.476
KRAKEN         27 55 216 285 -0.017 41.163   29 -0.342   29 -0.364   27 -0.295   29 0.4570   18  1.076   28 -0.319   25 -0.271
FLYERS         25 57 211 298 -0.011 41.474   30 -0.389   30 -0.407   30 -0.367   30 0.4518   19  1.068   29 -0.400   27 -0.334
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COYOTES        25 57 207 313 -0.018 41.444   31 -0.398   31 -0.412   32 -0.482   31 0.4517   15  1.099   32 -0.477   31 -0.486
CANADIENS      22 60 221 319 -0.022 41.278   32 -0.467   32 -0.490   31 -0.424   32 0.4428    9  1.183   27 -0.314   32 -0.534

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
OILERS         57 41 355 311  0.029 49.907   10  0.218   10  0.187   11  0.168   10 0.5218    3  1.290    5  0.417   21 -0.081
FLAMES         55 39 328 247 -0.008 46.215   11  0.203   11  0.161    3  0.304   11 0.5200   20  1.041    7  0.238    3  0.370
KINGS          47 42 256 263 -0.003 44.556   15  0.049   15  0.052   18 -0.008   16 0.5061   28  0.926   20 -0.206    9  0.191
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 43 39 266 248 -0.016 40.516   17  0.034   17  0.033   15  0.036   17 0.5035   13  1.111   13  0.055   15  0.017
CANUCKS        40 42 249 236 -0.012 40.656   18 -0.024   18 -0.039   14  0.041   18 0.4950   25  0.967   19 -0.111    8  0.193
SHARKS         32 50 214 264 -0.018 41.017   24 -0.225   24 -0.237   24 -0.236   25 0.4715   29  0.925   31 -0.435   20 -0.036
DUCKS          31 51 232 271 -0.015 41.002   26 -0.245   26 -0.263   21 -0.172   26 0.4688   21  1.036   24 -0.244   22 -0.100
KRAKEN         27 55 216 285 -0.017 41.163   29 -0.342   29 -0.364   27 -0.295   29 0.4570   18  1.076   28 -0.319   25 -0.271

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
AVALANCHE      72 30 397 289  0.037 51.804    1  0.491    1  0.465    1  0.379    1 0.5525    8  1.215    3  0.529    6  0.229
WILD           55 33 326 275  0.015 44.262    6  0.283    6  0.265    9  0.192    6 0.5304    6  1.258    6  0.399   17 -0.015
BLUES          55 39 351 280  0.027 47.450    9  0.222    9  0.188    2  0.306    9 0.5234    7  1.226    4  0.471   12  0.141
STARS          49 40 252 261  0.015 45.285   12  0.112   12  0.114   20 -0.052   12 0.5123   31  0.920   25 -0.258   11  0.154
PREDATORS      45 41 275 273  0.014 43.556   14  0.054   14  0.056   16  0.025   14 0.5072   11  1.131   12  0.069   18 -0.019
JETS           39 43 252 257 -0.009 40.898   19 -0.045   19 -0.060   19 -0.032   19 0.4932   17  1.078   18 -0.053   16 -0.010
BLACKHAWKS     28 54 219 291 -0.015 41.326   27 -0.316   27 -0.338   28 -0.327   27 0.4608   23  1.034   30 -0.401   24 -0.252
COYOTES        25 57 207 313 -0.018 41.444   31 -0.398   31 -0.412   32 -0.482   31 0.4517   15  1.099   32 -0.477   31 -0.486

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PANTHERS       62 30 363 278  0.004 45.632    2  0.380    2  0.364    4  0.300    2 0.5412    2  1.298    1  0.561   14  0.040
LIGHTNING      65 40 354 294  0.068 54.895    3  0.314    3  0.306    7  0.251    3 0.5362   22  1.035    8  0.178    4  0.325
MAPLE LEAFS    57 32 339 276  0.001 44.105    5  0.297    5  0.281    6  0.256    5 0.5337    1  1.312    2  0.535   19 -0.024
BRUINS         54 35 275 244  0.002 44.480    8  0.245    8  0.221   13  0.108    8 0.5257   27  0.962   17 -0.049    5  0.266
SENATORS       33 49 227 266 -0.013 41.130   22 -0.196   22 -0.206   23 -0.205   22 0.4755   24  1.028   26 -0.286   23 -0.125
RED WINGS      32 50 230 312 -0.014 41.360   23 -0.223   23 -0.233   29 -0.334   23 0.4729   10  1.174   23 -0.236   29 -0.432
SABRES         32 50 232 290 -0.022 40.936   25 -0.227   25 -0.239   26 -0.262   24 0.4718   12  1.117   22 -0.235   26 -0.288
CANADIENS      22 60 221 319 -0.022 41.278   32 -0.467   32 -0.490   31 -0.424   32 0.4428    9  1.183   27 -0.314   32 -0.534

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HURRICANES     61 35 315 242  0.014 48.063    4  0.302    4  0.288    5  0.278    4 0.5342   26  0.964   11  0.123    2  0.434
RANGERS        62 40 316 265  0.043 52.395    7  0.278    7  0.259    8  0.234    7 0.5292   30  0.921   15  0.030    1  0.438
PENGUINS       49 40 301 257  0.006 44.479   13  0.103   13  0.101   10  0.169   13 0.5121   16  1.096    9  0.169   10  0.169
CAPITALS       46 42 294 265  0.010 44.200   16  0.048   16  0.048   12  0.137   15 0.5061   14  1.101   10  0.144   13  0.131
BLUE JACKETS   37 45 262 300 -0.014 41.020   20 -0.100   20 -0.110   22 -0.190   20 0.4863    4  1.278   14  0.043   28 -0.423
ISLANDERS      37 45 231 237 -0.022 40.426   21 -0.102   21 -0.121   17 -0.006   21 0.4855   32  0.909   21 -0.223    7  0.212
DEVILS         27 55 248 307 -0.014 41.202   28 -0.336   28 -0.359   25 -0.258   28 0.4575    5  1.267   16 -0.039   30 -0.476
FLYERS         25 57 211 298 -0.011 41.474   30 -0.389   30 -0.407   30 -0.367   30 0.4518   19  1.068   29 -0.400   27 -0.334

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION      368 337 0.522    1  0.004
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 344 359 0.489    2  0.002
PACIFIC DIVISION      332 359 0.480    3 -0.023
ATLANTIC DIVISION     357 346 0.508    4 -0.045

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.110 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed Jun 29 19:32:45 2022
games through: Sun Jun 26 2022

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