Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRUINS         68 21 332 203  0.017 43.961    1  0.589    1  0.575    1  0.540    1 0.5650   28  0.941    2  0.349    1  0.730
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 67 37 359 286  0.026 52.312    2  0.327    2  0.325    3  0.250    2 0.5365   22  1.033    9  0.166    6  0.335
HURRICANES     60 37 312 251  0.028 48.891    3  0.276    3  0.267    5  0.245    3 0.5303   29  0.916   17  0.026    2  0.464
DEVILS         57 37 321 267  0.036 47.649    4  0.261    4  0.249    7  0.230    4 0.5279   18  1.094    7  0.219   10  0.240
AVALANCHE      54 35 299 243 -0.011 43.491    5  0.227    5  0.208    9  0.202    5 0.5245   25  1.001   13  0.080    7  0.324
MAPLE LEAFS    55 38 312 257  0.019 46.477    6  0.219    6  0.196    4  0.245    7 0.5234   24  1.007   11  0.131    4  0.360
OILERS         56 38 369 302  0.003 46.387    7  0.218    7  0.195    6  0.237    6 0.5239    2  1.367    1  0.583   20 -0.109
PANTHERS       55 48 352 342  0.085 54.453    8  0.158    8  0.143   11  0.114    8 0.5169    5  1.271    4  0.329   19 -0.102
STARS          57 44 344 279  0.009 50.107    9  0.155    9  0.137    2  0.255    9 0.5168   20  1.046    8  0.187    8  0.324
RANGERS        50 39 294 236  0.021 44.580   10  0.152   10  0.136    8  0.214   10 0.5164   26  0.967   15  0.053    3  0.376
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KRAKEN         53 43 333 301  0.022 48.331   11  0.136   11  0.125   12  0.112   11 0.5138    7  1.210    6  0.248   16 -0.024
KINGS          49 39 300 282  0.005 43.810   12  0.129   12  0.120   14  0.068   12 0.5138   12  1.165   10  0.145   15 -0.010
LIGHTNING      48 40 304 277  0.020 44.145   13  0.116   13  0.107   10  0.150   13 0.5123    8  1.203    5  0.277   14  0.023
WILD           48 40 260 246 -0.008 43.372   14  0.090   14  0.086   15  0.058   15 0.5092   31  0.890   24 -0.189    9  0.305
JETS           47 40 261 244 -0.008 42.922   15  0.075   15  0.073   16  0.024   14 0.5094   27  0.959   21 -0.145   11  0.194
SABRES         42 40 296 300  0.003 40.966   16  0.031   16  0.025   19 -0.044   16 0.5031    1  1.395    3  0.341   29 -0.429
ISLANDERS      44 44 258 238  0.011 43.944   17  0.017   18  0.005   13  0.092   18 0.5006   30  0.890   22 -0.155    5  0.339
PREDATORS      42 40 229 238 -0.023 40.191   18  0.016   17  0.006   22 -0.085   17 0.5007   32  0.874   29 -0.350   12  0.180
PENGUINS       40 42 262 264 -0.000 40.793   19 -0.011   19 -0.030   17  0.002   19 0.4967   14  1.138   16  0.046   17 -0.042
SENATORS       39 43 261 271 -0.002 40.847   20 -0.033   20 -0.053   21 -0.063   20 0.4940   11  1.167   18  0.017   22 -0.143
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
FLAMES         38 44 260 252 -0.031 39.769   21 -0.083   22 -0.104   18 -0.005   21 0.4881   19  1.066   20 -0.050   13  0.040
CANUCKS        38 44 276 298 -0.034 39.971   22 -0.085   21 -0.099   23 -0.148   22 0.4878    3  1.309   12  0.118   26 -0.414
BLUES          37 45 263 301 -0.028 40.223   23 -0.109   23 -0.120   25 -0.181   23 0.4860    4  1.295   14  0.067   28 -0.429
CAPITALS       35 47 255 265 -0.007 40.647   24 -0.148   25 -0.158   20 -0.050   25 0.4813   16  1.122   19 -0.026   18 -0.074
RED WINGS      35 47 240 279 -0.007 40.862   25 -0.148   24 -0.155   24 -0.167   24 0.4817   17  1.104   23 -0.165   23 -0.169
CANADIENS      31 51 232 307 -0.005 41.238   26 -0.247   26 -0.256   28 -0.334   26 0.4703    9  1.177   26 -0.242   27 -0.427
FLYERS         31 51 222 277 -0.007 40.967   27 -0.247   27 -0.260   26 -0.218   27 0.4698   23  1.023   28 -0.313   21 -0.122
COYOTES        28 54 228 299 -0.028 40.474   28 -0.329   28 -0.347   27 -0.292   28 0.4596   15  1.127   27 -0.262   24 -0.322
BLACKHAWKS     26 56 204 301 -0.030 40.627   29 -0.392   29 -0.399   30 -0.466   29 0.4535   21  1.034   32 -0.548   25 -0.384
BLUE JACKETS   25 57 214 330 -0.011 41.341   30 -0.406   30 -0.411   31 -0.509   30 0.4519   10  1.173   30 -0.421   31 -0.597
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DUCKS          23 59 209 338 -0.031 40.737   31 -0.471   31 -0.481   32 -0.559   31 0.4443   13  1.144   31 -0.508   32 -0.610
SHARKS         22 60 234 321 -0.031 40.461   32 -0.483   32 -0.506   29 -0.348   32 0.4417    6  1.216   25 -0.205   30 -0.492

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 67 37 359 286  0.026 52.312    2  0.327    2  0.325    3  0.250    2 0.5365   22  1.033    9  0.166    6  0.335
OILERS         56 38 369 302  0.003 46.387    7  0.218    7  0.195    6  0.237    6 0.5239    2  1.367    1  0.583   20 -0.109
KRAKEN         53 43 333 301  0.022 48.331   11  0.136   11  0.125   12  0.112   11 0.5138    7  1.210    6  0.248   16 -0.024
KINGS          49 39 300 282  0.005 43.810   12  0.129   12  0.120   14  0.068   12 0.5138   12  1.165   10  0.145   15 -0.010
FLAMES         38 44 260 252 -0.031 39.769   21 -0.083   22 -0.104   18 -0.005   21 0.4881   19  1.066   20 -0.050   13  0.040
CANUCKS        38 44 276 298 -0.034 39.971   22 -0.085   21 -0.099   23 -0.148   22 0.4878    3  1.309   12  0.118   26 -0.414
DUCKS          23 59 209 338 -0.031 40.737   31 -0.471   31 -0.481   32 -0.559   31 0.4443   13  1.144   31 -0.508   32 -0.610
SHARKS         22 60 234 321 -0.031 40.461   32 -0.483   32 -0.506   29 -0.348   32 0.4417    6  1.216   25 -0.205   30 -0.492

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
AVALANCHE      54 35 299 243 -0.011 43.491    5  0.227    5  0.208    9  0.202    5 0.5245   25  1.001   13  0.080    7  0.324
STARS          57 44 344 279  0.009 50.107    9  0.155    9  0.137    2  0.255    9 0.5168   20  1.046    8  0.187    8  0.324
WILD           48 40 260 246 -0.008 43.372   14  0.090   14  0.086   15  0.058   15 0.5092   31  0.890   24 -0.189    9  0.305
JETS           47 40 261 244 -0.008 42.922   15  0.075   15  0.073   16  0.024   14 0.5094   27  0.959   21 -0.145   11  0.194
PREDATORS      42 40 229 238 -0.023 40.191   18  0.016   17  0.006   22 -0.085   17 0.5007   32  0.874   29 -0.350   12  0.180
BLUES          37 45 263 301 -0.028 40.223   23 -0.109   23 -0.120   25 -0.181   23 0.4860    4  1.295   14  0.067   28 -0.429
COYOTES        28 54 228 299 -0.028 40.474   28 -0.329   28 -0.347   27 -0.292   28 0.4596   15  1.127   27 -0.262   24 -0.322
BLACKHAWKS     26 56 204 301 -0.030 40.627   29 -0.392   29 -0.399   30 -0.466   29 0.4535   21  1.034   32 -0.548   25 -0.384

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRUINS         68 21 332 203  0.017 43.961    1  0.589    1  0.575    1  0.540    1 0.5650   28  0.941    2  0.349    1  0.730
MAPLE LEAFS    55 38 312 257  0.019 46.477    6  0.219    6  0.196    4  0.245    7 0.5234   24  1.007   11  0.131    4  0.360
PANTHERS       55 48 352 342  0.085 54.453    8  0.158    8  0.143   11  0.114    8 0.5169    5  1.271    4  0.329   19 -0.102
LIGHTNING      48 40 304 277  0.020 44.145   13  0.116   13  0.107   10  0.150   13 0.5123    8  1.203    5  0.277   14  0.023
SABRES         42 40 296 300  0.003 40.966   16  0.031   16  0.025   19 -0.044   16 0.5031    1  1.395    3  0.341   29 -0.429
SENATORS       39 43 261 271 -0.002 40.847   20 -0.033   20 -0.053   21 -0.063   20 0.4940   11  1.167   18  0.017   22 -0.143
RED WINGS      35 47 240 279 -0.007 40.862   25 -0.148   24 -0.155   24 -0.167   24 0.4817   17  1.104   23 -0.165   23 -0.169
CANADIENS      31 51 232 307 -0.005 41.238   26 -0.247   26 -0.256   28 -0.334   26 0.4703    9  1.177   26 -0.242   27 -0.427

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HURRICANES     60 37 312 251  0.028 48.891    3  0.276    3  0.267    5  0.245    3 0.5303   29  0.916   17  0.026    2  0.464
DEVILS         57 37 321 267  0.036 47.649    4  0.261    4  0.249    7  0.230    4 0.5279   18  1.094    7  0.219   10  0.240
RANGERS        50 39 294 236  0.021 44.580   10  0.152   10  0.136    8  0.214   10 0.5164   26  0.967   15  0.053    3  0.376
ISLANDERS      44 44 258 238  0.011 43.944   17  0.017   18  0.005   13  0.092   18 0.5006   30  0.890   22 -0.155    5  0.339
PENGUINS       40 42 262 264 -0.000 40.793   19 -0.011   19 -0.030   17  0.002   19 0.4967   14  1.138   16  0.046   17 -0.042
CAPITALS       35 47 255 265 -0.007 40.647   24 -0.148   25 -0.158   20 -0.050   25 0.4813   16  1.122   19 -0.026   18 -0.074
FLYERS         31 51 222 277 -0.007 40.967   27 -0.247   27 -0.260   26 -0.218   27 0.4698   23  1.023   28 -0.313   21 -0.122
BLUE JACKETS   25 57 214 330 -0.011 41.341   30 -0.406   30 -0.411   31 -0.509   30 0.4519   10  1.173   30 -0.421   31 -0.597

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
ATLANTIC DIVISION     373 328 0.532    1  0.063
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 342 354 0.491    2  0.005
PACIFIC DIVISION      346 364 0.487    3 -0.053
CENTRAL DIVISION      339 354 0.489    4 -0.068

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.074 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.006 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jun 17 07:54:14 2023
games through: Tue Jun 13 2023

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