Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS        65 33 329 271  0.020 49.235    1  0.349    1  0.345    5  0.222    1 0.5416   16  1.076    7  0.214    7  0.231
PANTHERS       68 38 340 262  0.048 54.293    2  0.330    2  0.323    1  0.298    2 0.5385   30  0.902   12  0.088    1  0.508
STARS          62 39 350 282  0.025 50.894    3  0.267    3  0.248    4  0.229    4 0.5298   14  1.086    5  0.233    8  0.226
HURRICANES     58 35 317 248 -0.001 45.823    4  0.263    4  0.242    3  0.275    3 0.5301   21  1.043    6  0.228    4  0.323
OILERS         64 43 380 302  0.049 54.847    5  0.260    5  0.238    2  0.279    5 0.5278   10  1.171    2  0.388    9  0.170
AVALANCHE      56 37 347 291  0.011 46.363    6  0.233    6  0.209    7  0.201    6 0.5259    1  1.314    1  0.498   21 -0.097
CANUCKS        57 38 311 259  0.014 47.473    7  0.232    7  0.207    6  0.211    8 0.5249   24  1.026    9  0.143    6  0.280
JETS           53 34 274 227 -0.007 42.822    8  0.227    8  0.205    9  0.169    7 0.5255   26  0.951   17  0.013    3  0.324
BRUINS         53 42 298 255  0.030 48.177    9  0.153    9  0.135    8  0.192    9 0.5164   29  0.923   19  0.005    2  0.379
PREDATORS      49 39 281 261 -0.001 43.663   10  0.115   10  0.108   12  0.084   10 0.5133   13  1.100   11  0.105   12  0.062
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAPLE LEAFS    49 40 315 281  0.017 44.751   11  0.114   11  0.106   10  0.139   11 0.5130    4  1.244    4  0.343   19 -0.065
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 48 41 283 261 -0.006 43.994   12  0.069   12  0.068   14  0.067   12 0.5088   17  1.070   14  0.051   11  0.083
LIGHTNING      46 41 305 288  0.013 43.697   13  0.065   13  0.062   13  0.070   13 0.5078    2  1.303    3  0.352   22 -0.213
KINGS          45 42 269 237 -0.003 42.988   14  0.035   14  0.026   11  0.130   15 0.5032   27  0.945   21 -0.032    5  0.292
BLUES          43 39 239 250 -0.022 40.298   15  0.029   15  0.025   20 -0.078   14 0.5037   25  1.015   26 -0.159   16  0.002
RED WINGS      41 41 278 274 -0.007 40.678   16  0.001   16 -0.012   16 -0.015   16 0.4988    5  1.241    8  0.185   23 -0.216
SABRES         39 43 246 244 -0.011 40.559   17 -0.042   18 -0.060   17 -0.018   19 0.4926   23  1.031   22 -0.081   13  0.044
WILD           39 43 251 263 -0.014 40.487   18 -0.042   17 -0.060   18 -0.038   17 0.4928   11  1.117   20  0.004   20 -0.079
CAPITALS       40 46 227 272  0.006 43.368   19 -0.050   19 -0.066   27 -0.153   18 0.4928   28  0.941   28 -0.319   15  0.014
ISLANDERS      40 47 258 282  0.013 43.996   20 -0.052   20 -0.071   22 -0.084   20 0.4914   18  1.061   23 -0.111   18 -0.057
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
FLYERS         38 44 235 261 -0.008 40.760   21 -0.061   21 -0.079   19 -0.077   21 0.4901   22  1.043   24 -0.126   17 -0.029
PENGUINS       38 44 255 251 -0.013 40.422   22 -0.065   23 -0.086   15  0.018   24 0.4896   15  1.077   18  0.010   14  0.025
FLAMES         38 44 253 271 -0.012 40.692   23 -0.065   22 -0.085   23 -0.105   22 0.4897    7  1.199   15  0.040   26 -0.249
DEVILS         38 44 264 283 -0.015 40.581   24 -0.069   24 -0.087   24 -0.112   23 0.4897    3  1.277   10  0.136   29 -0.361
SENATORS       37 45 255 281 -0.003 40.990   25 -0.085   25 -0.101   25 -0.121   25 0.4876    6  1.204   16  0.030   27 -0.273
COYOTES        36 46 256 273 -0.015 40.551   26 -0.121   26 -0.134   21 -0.079   26 0.4841    8  1.193   13  0.059   24 -0.216
KRAKEN         34 48 217 236 -0.031 40.127   27 -0.185   27 -0.192   26 -0.129   27 0.4765   32  0.841   29 -0.406   10  0.147
CANADIENS      30 52 235 289 -0.003 41.143   28 -0.250   28 -0.267   28 -0.214   28 0.4671   12  1.109   27 -0.182   25 -0.245
BLUE JACKETS   27 55 237 300 -0.007 41.149   29 -0.323   29 -0.342   29 -0.287   29 0.4581    9  1.188   25 -0.156   31 -0.418
DUCKS          27 55 204 295 -0.029 40.750   30 -0.340   30 -0.355   30 -0.422   30 0.4563   19  1.057   30 -0.453   30 -0.391
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLACKHAWKS     23 59 179 290 -0.016 41.277   31 -0.447   31 -0.449   31 -0.519   31 0.4463   31  0.893   32 -0.739   28 -0.299
SHARKS         19 63 181 329 -0.026 41.024   32 -0.544   32 -0.560   32 -0.612   32 0.4330   20  1.047   31 -0.656   32 -0.569

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
OILERS         64 43 380 302  0.049 54.847    5  0.260    5  0.238    2  0.279    5 0.5278   10  1.171    2  0.388    9  0.170
CANUCKS        57 38 311 259  0.014 47.473    7  0.232    7  0.207    6  0.211    8 0.5249   24  1.026    9  0.143    6  0.280
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 48 41 283 261 -0.006 43.994   12  0.069   12  0.068   14  0.067   12 0.5088   17  1.070   14  0.051   11  0.083
KINGS          45 42 269 237 -0.003 42.988   14  0.035   14  0.026   11  0.130   15 0.5032   27  0.945   21 -0.032    5  0.292
FLAMES         38 44 253 271 -0.012 40.692   23 -0.065   22 -0.085   23 -0.105   22 0.4897    7  1.199   15  0.040   26 -0.249
KRAKEN         34 48 217 236 -0.031 40.127   27 -0.185   27 -0.192   26 -0.129   27 0.4765   32  0.841   29 -0.406   10  0.147
DUCKS          27 55 204 295 -0.029 40.750   30 -0.340   30 -0.355   30 -0.422   30 0.4563   19  1.057   30 -0.453   30 -0.391
SHARKS         19 63 181 329 -0.026 41.024   32 -0.544   32 -0.560   32 -0.612   32 0.4330   20  1.047   31 -0.656   32 -0.569

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
STARS          62 39 350 282  0.025 50.894    3  0.267    3  0.248    4  0.229    4 0.5298   14  1.086    5  0.233    8  0.226
AVALANCHE      56 37 347 291  0.011 46.363    6  0.233    6  0.209    7  0.201    6 0.5259    1  1.314    1  0.498   21 -0.097
JETS           53 34 274 227 -0.007 42.822    8  0.227    8  0.205    9  0.169    7 0.5255   26  0.951   17  0.013    3  0.324
PREDATORS      49 39 281 261 -0.001 43.663   10  0.115   10  0.108   12  0.084   10 0.5133   13  1.100   11  0.105   12  0.062
BLUES          43 39 239 250 -0.022 40.298   15  0.029   15  0.025   20 -0.078   14 0.5037   25  1.015   26 -0.159   16  0.002
WILD           39 43 251 263 -0.014 40.487   18 -0.042   17 -0.060   18 -0.038   17 0.4928   11  1.117   20  0.004   20 -0.079
COYOTES        36 46 256 273 -0.015 40.551   26 -0.121   26 -0.134   21 -0.079   26 0.4841    8  1.193   13  0.059   24 -0.216
BLACKHAWKS     23 59 179 290 -0.016 41.277   31 -0.447   31 -0.449   31 -0.519   31 0.4463   31  0.893   32 -0.739   28 -0.299

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PANTHERS       68 38 340 262  0.048 54.293    2  0.330    2  0.323    1  0.298    2 0.5385   30  0.902   12  0.088    1  0.508
BRUINS         53 42 298 255  0.030 48.177    9  0.153    9  0.135    8  0.192    9 0.5164   29  0.923   19  0.005    2  0.379
MAPLE LEAFS    49 40 315 281  0.017 44.751   11  0.114   11  0.106   10  0.139   11 0.5130    4  1.244    4  0.343   19 -0.065
LIGHTNING      46 41 305 288  0.013 43.697   13  0.065   13  0.062   13  0.070   13 0.5078    2  1.303    3  0.352   22 -0.213
RED WINGS      41 41 278 274 -0.007 40.678   16  0.001   16 -0.012   16 -0.015   16 0.4988    5  1.241    8  0.185   23 -0.216
SABRES         39 43 246 244 -0.011 40.559   17 -0.042   18 -0.060   17 -0.018   19 0.4926   23  1.031   22 -0.081   13  0.044
SENATORS       37 45 255 281 -0.003 40.990   25 -0.085   25 -0.101   25 -0.121   25 0.4876    6  1.204   16  0.030   27 -0.273
CANADIENS      30 52 235 289 -0.003 41.143   28 -0.250   28 -0.267   28 -0.214   28 0.4671   12  1.109   27 -0.182   25 -0.245

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS        65 33 329 271  0.020 49.235    1  0.349    1  0.345    5  0.222    1 0.5416   16  1.076    7  0.214    7  0.231
HURRICANES     58 35 317 248 -0.001 45.823    4  0.263    4  0.242    3  0.275    3 0.5301   21  1.043    6  0.228    4  0.323
CAPITALS       40 46 227 272  0.006 43.368   19 -0.050   19 -0.066   27 -0.153   18 0.4928   28  0.941   28 -0.319   15  0.014
ISLANDERS      40 47 258 282  0.013 43.996   20 -0.052   20 -0.071   22 -0.084   20 0.4914   18  1.061   23 -0.111   18 -0.057
FLYERS         38 44 235 261 -0.008 40.760   21 -0.061   21 -0.079   19 -0.077   21 0.4901   22  1.043   24 -0.126   17 -0.029
PENGUINS       38 44 255 251 -0.013 40.422   22 -0.065   23 -0.086   15  0.018   24 0.4896   15  1.077   18  0.010   14  0.025
DEVILS         38 44 264 283 -0.015 40.581   24 -0.069   24 -0.087   24 -0.112   23 0.4897    3  1.277   10  0.136   29 -0.361
BLUE JACKETS   27 55 237 300 -0.007 41.149   29 -0.323   29 -0.342   29 -0.287   29 0.4581    9  1.188   25 -0.156   31 -0.418

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
ATLANTIC DIVISION     363 342 0.515    1  0.050
CENTRAL DIVISION      361 336 0.518    2  0.000
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 344 348 0.497    3 -0.029
PACIFIC DIVISION      332 374 0.470    4 -0.082

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.097 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.010 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed Oct  9 16:26:44 2024
games through: Mon Jun 24 2024

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