Both of the preliminary games feature one team that is clearly better than the other. But, as always, the final four teams are sufficiently close in talent that anything can happen.
Florida has a 69% chance of knocking off George Mason, but of course that means a 31% chance that they won't. And UCLA has a 55% chance of winning against LSU. This makes for the following odds of championship matchups:
Combining the odds of each matchup occurring, along with the odds of each team winning, we estimate that the teams have the following chance of winning the tournament:
Not that I don't like George Mason. They deserved much better than an 11-seed. But they'll have to overcome 2-1 odds in both upcoming games to win the title. The most likely outcome is Florida winning the first game, which would set up a fairly evenly-matched championship game (whoever wins the Texas/UCLA game).
Next for the odds of the 8 third-round winners advancing:
FNL4 FNL2 CHAMP
0.658 0.401 0.235 TEXAS
0.711 0.390 0.207 CONNECTICUT
0.521 0.273 0.135 FLORIDA
0.479 0.242 0.115 VILLANOVA
0.516 0.234 0.113 UCLA
0.484 0.212 0.100 MEMPHIS
0.342 0.154 0.066 LOUISIANA ST.
0.289 0.096 0.031 GEORGE MASON
For the first four rounds, that makes a total of 20 upsets in 60 games according to the seedings, compared with an expectation of 19.5 +/- 3.47. Versus my lines, there were 17 upsets, compared with an expected 18.9 +/- 3.47.
Adding in last season's first two rounds as well, there were 34 upsets (according to the seeds) in 108 games, compared with an expected 33.0 +/- 4.29. Versus my lines, there were 30 upsets, compared with an expected 31.4 +/- 4.29.
It's probably not worth belaboring the point any further. Suffice it to say that, to a very high degree of precision (108 games), tournament games have the same tendency for upsets as regular-season games.
Next for the odds of the 16 second-round winners advancing:
ELT8 FNL4 FNL2 CHAMP
0.622 0.461 0.272 0.147 CONNECTICUT
0.743 0.437 0.200 0.105 UCLA
0.721 0.420 0.275 0.172 TEXAS
0.663 0.356 0.195 0.095 VILLANOVA
0.662 0.353 0.222 0.132 DUKE
0.619 0.349 0.195 0.097 FLORIDA
0.629 0.329 0.137 0.066 MEMPHIS
0.378 0.238 0.111 0.047 WASHINGTON
0.545 0.173 0.062 0.020 GEORGE MASON
0.381 0.169 0.075 0.028 GEORGETOWN
0.371 0.147 0.044 0.016 BRADLEY
0.455 0.128 0.041 0.011 WICHITA ST.
0.338 0.127 0.059 0.026 LOUISIANA ST.
0.337 0.126 0.049 0.016 BOSTON COLLEGE
0.279 0.100 0.043 0.017 WEST VIRGINIA
0.257 0.086 0.020 0.006 GONZAGA
For the first three rounds, that makes a total of 16 upsets in 56 games according to the seedings, compared with an expectation of 17.8 +/- 3.33. Versus my lines, there were 15 upsets, compared with an expected 17.3 +/- 3.33.
Adding in last season's first two rounds as well, there were 30 upsets (according to the seeds) in 104 games, compared with an expected 31.3 +/- 4.18. Versus my lines, there were 28 upsets, compared with an expected 29.8 +/- 4.18.
Next for the odds of the 32 first-round winners advancing:
SWT16 ELT8 FNL4 FNL2 CHAMP
0.790 0.594 0.355 0.232 0.141 TEXAS
0.812 0.561 0.331 0.214 0.128 DUKE
0.788 0.588 0.360 0.181 0.098 UCLA
0.707 0.497 0.266 0.156 0.082 NORTH CAROLINA
0.672 0.485 0.283 0.152 0.078 VILLANOVA
0.745 0.471 0.303 0.190 0.109 CONNECTICUT
0.752 0.454 0.265 0.138 0.069 FLORIDA
0.720 0.403 0.219 0.096 0.046 MEMPHIS
0.618 0.338 0.179 0.076 0.035 PITTSBURGH
0.788 0.281 0.109 0.049 0.019 WEST VIRGINIA
0.720 0.277 0.114 0.042 0.015 BOSTON COLLEGE
0.555 0.270 0.137 0.061 0.026 OHIO ST.
0.589 0.239 0.105 0.052 0.023 LOUISIANA ST.
0.583 0.227 0.083 0.034 0.012 TENNESSEE
0.506 0.221 0.115 0.058 0.026 ILLINOIS
0.494 0.213 0.109 0.054 0.024 WASHINGTON
0.445 0.193 0.087 0.034 0.013 GEORGETOWN
0.328 0.184 0.075 0.028 0.010 ARIZONA
0.545 0.182 0.069 0.019 0.006 INDIANA
0.382 0.165 0.069 0.022 0.008 BRADLEY
0.293 0.145 0.048 0.018 0.006 GEORGE MASON
0.455 0.135 0.045 0.011 0.003 GONZAGA
0.411 0.134 0.048 0.019 0.007 TEXAS A&M
0.417 0.131 0.038 0.013 0.004 WICHITA ST.
0.210 0.097 0.029 0.010 0.003 N.C. STATE
0.255 0.095 0.038 0.014 0.005 KENTUCKY
0.212 0.094 0.029 0.006 0.002 ALABAMA
0.280 0.093 0.031 0.007 0.002 BUCKNELL
0.248 0.084 0.027 0.007 0.002 WIS.-MILWAUKEE
0.188 0.066 0.018 0.006 0.002 GEORGE WASHINGTON
0.280 0.054 0.012 0.002 0.000 MONTANA
0.212 0.028 0.004 0.001 0.000 NORTHWESTERN ST.
For the first two rounds, that makes a total of 14 upsets in 48 games, both by the seedings and by my lines. The expected number of upsets is 14.9 +/- 3.05 and 14.5 +/- 3.05, respectively.
Including last season, there were 28 upsets (according to the seeds) in 96 games, compared with an expected 28.4 +/- 4.18. Versus my lines, there were 27 upsets, compared with an expected 27.0 +/- 4.18.
Below are the odds of each of the 64 teams advancing to each round in the tournament (again, calculated based on pre-tournament rankings):
FIRST SECND SWT16 ELT8 FNL4 FNL2 CHAMP
1.000 0.976 0.789 0.589 0.357 0.231 0.141 DUKE
1.000 0.934 0.735 0.504 0.328 0.212 0.120 CONNECTICUT
1.000 0.907 0.733 0.546 0.334 0.219 0.135 TEXAS
1.000 0.964 0.698 0.514 0.324 0.176 0.090 VILLANOVA
1.000 0.925 0.654 0.481 0.250 0.115 0.057 UCLA
1.000 0.891 0.659 0.499 0.283 0.174 0.093 NORTH CAROLINA
1.000 0.798 0.570 0.340 0.189 0.092 0.043 FLORIDA
1.000 0.836 0.529 0.250 0.146 0.062 0.029 MEMPHIS
1.000 0.753 0.522 0.355 0.247 0.135 0.079 KANSAS
1.000 0.856 0.516 0.289 0.149 0.067 0.028 OHIO ST.
1.000 0.821 0.488 0.193 0.081 0.037 0.016 IOWA
1.000 0.716 0.467 0.188 0.071 0.031 0.011 TENNESSEE
1.000 0.698 0.425 0.163 0.069 0.032 0.013 LOUISIANA ST.
1.000 0.703 0.413 0.184 0.096 0.049 0.021 ILLINOIS
1.000 0.647 0.412 0.164 0.075 0.028 0.010 BOSTON COLLEGE
1.000 0.722 0.385 0.162 0.080 0.039 0.016 WASHINGTON
1.000 0.574 0.329 0.125 0.042 0.012 0.004 INDIANA
1.000 0.755 0.321 0.175 0.099 0.041 0.018 PITTSBURGH
1.000 0.676 0.318 0.103 0.039 0.012 0.003 NEVADA
1.000 0.660 0.315 0.124 0.063 0.022 0.009 ARKANSAS
1.000 0.590 0.296 0.102 0.037 0.015 0.005 WEST VIRGINIA
1.000 0.592 0.290 0.093 0.033 0.013 0.005 TEXAS A&M
1.000 0.575 0.278 0.136 0.061 0.023 0.008 GEORGETOWN
1.000 0.609 0.274 0.083 0.023 0.008 0.002 WICHITA ST.
1.000 0.539 0.256 0.085 0.024 0.006 0.002 GONZAGA
1.000 0.622 0.231 0.133 0.048 0.014 0.005 MARQUETTE
1.000 0.426 0.213 0.067 0.018 0.004 0.001 SAN DIEGO ST.
1.000 0.564 0.211 0.085 0.032 0.010 0.003 OKLAHOMA
1.000 0.461 0.201 0.060 0.015 0.003 0.001 XAVIER
1.000 0.425 0.176 0.074 0.028 0.009 0.003 N. IOWA
1.000 0.353 0.174 0.047 0.015 0.004 0.001 PACIFIC
1.000 0.410 0.171 0.046 0.013 0.004 0.001 S. ILLINOIS
1.000 0.600 0.167 0.071 0.028 0.011 0.003 KENTUCKY
1.000 0.516 0.164 0.088 0.029 0.011 0.003 MICHIGAN ST.
1.000 0.408 0.163 0.040 0.011 0.003 0.001 SYRACUSE
1.000 0.520 0.158 0.083 0.034 0.011 0.003 ARIZONA
1.000 0.484 0.147 0.077 0.025 0.009 0.003 GEORGE MASON
1.000 0.480 0.139 0.070 0.028 0.009 0.002 WISCONSIN
1.000 0.436 0.139 0.048 0.015 0.004 0.001 WIS.-MILWAUKEE
1.000 0.391 0.136 0.030 0.006 0.001 0.000 SETON HALL
1.000 0.302 0.122 0.027 0.007 0.002 0.000 IONA
1.000 0.284 0.122 0.026 0.005 0.001 0.000 WINTHROP
1.000 0.545 0.121 0.053 0.016 0.006 0.002 N.C.-WILMINGTON
1.000 0.502 0.119 0.050 0.015 0.005 0.001 N.C. STATE
1.000 0.498 0.117 0.049 0.015 0.005 0.001 CALIFORNIA
1.000 0.297 0.114 0.030 0.010 0.003 0.001 AIR FORCE
1.000 0.340 0.112 0.028 0.010 0.002 0.001 BUCKNELL
1.000 0.247 0.109 0.046 0.020 0.006 0.002 BRADLEY
1.000 0.378 0.101 0.046 0.012 0.002 0.001 ALABAMA
1.000 0.324 0.097 0.018 0.004 0.001 0.000 MONTANA
1.000 0.455 0.087 0.035 0.009 0.003 0.001 GEORGE WASHINGTON
1.000 0.278 0.087 0.020 0.006 0.002 0.000 UTAH ST.
1.000 0.400 0.082 0.027 0.008 0.002 0.001 ALA.-BIRMINGHAM
1.000 0.202 0.080 0.023 0.006 0.001 0.000 SOUTH ALABAMA
1.000 0.245 0.048 0.014 0.004 0.001 0.000 KENT ST.
1.000 0.179 0.045 0.006 0.001 0.000 0.000 NORTHWESTERN ST.
1.000 0.164 0.044 0.007 0.002 0.000 0.000 ORAL ROBERTS
1.000 0.144 0.031 0.006 0.001 0.000 0.000 DAVIDSON
1.000 0.109 0.030 0.009 0.001 0.000 0.000 MURRAY ST.
1.000 0.093 0.030 0.008 0.001 0.000 0.000 PENN
1.000 0.066 0.016 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 ALBANY, N.Y.
1.000 0.075 0.014 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 BELMONT
0.705 0.032 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 MONMOUTH, N.J.
1.000 0.024 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 SOUTHERN U.
0.295 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 HAMPTON
Combined with last season, seeded favorites have gone 47-17, compared with a prediction of 18.2 +/- 3.3 upsets. My ranking favorites have gone 48-16, compared with a prediction of 17.0 +/- 3.3 upsets.
Obviously I'm a bit late writing this column this season, but I should make my customary comments (especially with the heat the selection committee took for certain at-large teams). So I'm writing this as objectively as possible, based on my rankings before any NCAA or NIT games were played.
First off, let's critique the selections. First off, there were 31 automatic bids. I'll list them here with important stats taken from my ranking page:
STANDARD PREDICTIVE RPI
RNK RATING RNK RATING RNK RATING SD CREC TEAM
1 4.523 2 1.752 1 0.6841 1 14-2 DUKE
4 4.150 9 1.376 4 0.6507 1 13-1 MEMPHIS
6 4.121 53 0.810 10 0.6253 3 14-0 GONZAGA
9 4.003 8 1.441 15 0.6130 3 10-6 FLORIDA
10 3.996 7 1.457 9 0.6273 2 14-4 UCLA
15 3.854 15 1.254 7 0.6312 3 11-5 IOWA
17 3.840 4 1.687 20 0.6057 4 14-3 KANSAS
19 3.748 38 0.924 19 0.6064 5 13-3 NEVADA
22 3.652 60 0.757 42 0.5866 9 14-0 BUCKNELL
24 3.612 48 0.843 17 0.6107 5 7-9 SYRACUSE
40 3.447 37 0.929 28 0.5982 9 15-3 N.C.-WILMINGTON
46 3.387 42 0.878 29 0.5980 11 12-6 S. ILLINOIS
52 3.308 57 0.765 55 0.5752 11 13-3 SAN DIEGO ST.
56 3.236 63 0.739 64 0.5656 13 13-5 IONA
60 3.201 75 0.634 48 0.5804 12 15-3 KENT ST.
63 3.169 93 0.467 61 0.5684 12 12-2 MONTANA
64 3.168 116 0.336 60 0.5684 14 15-1 NORTHWESTERN ST.
67 3.149 67 0.711 77 0.5523 14 8-8 XAVIER
70 3.123 55 0.783 52 0.5774 11 12-4 WIS.-MILWAUKEE
71 3.119 80 0.607 66 0.5640 14 12-3 SOUTH ALABAMA
74 3.086 62 0.757 88 0.5455 13 12-2 PACIFIC
88 2.965 103 0.398 65 0.5644 14 17-3 MURRAY ST.
94 2.923 85 0.568 73 0.5577 15 13-3 WINTHROP
103 2.829 97 0.451 98 0.5390 15 12-2 PENN
119 2.690 102 0.399 130 0.5185 16 13-3 ORAL ROBERTS
125 2.654 126 0.276 94 0.5410 15 10-5 DAVIDSON
140 2.561 130 0.204 119 0.5228 16 13-3 ALBANY, N.Y.
160 2.375 176 -0.104 144 0.5097 17 12-6 MONMOUTH, N.J.
165 2.365 159 0.016 115 0.5271 15 15-5 BELMONT
180 2.250 196 -0.226 132 0.5164 16 15-3 SOUTHERN U.
293 1.267 270 -0.642 284 0.4280 18 10-8 HAMPTON
So, that's 31 out of 65 teams. Now let's look at the teams that would be considered locks for historical reasons (RPI top-32, or RPI top-50 with 20 wins in a major conference).
STANDARD PREDICTIVE RPI
RNK RATING RNK RATING RNK RATING SD CREC TEAM
2 4.376 3 1.714 3 0.6509 1 14-2 CONNECTICUT
3 4.309 6 1.581 2 0.6662 1 14-2 VILLANOVA
5 4.131 1 1.776 8 0.6299 2 13-4 TEXAS
7 4.052 11 1.337 5 0.6400 2 12-4 OHIO ST.
8 4.023 52 0.817 37 0.5918 8 16-0 GEORGE WASHINGTON
11 3.981 10 1.358 14 0.6202 4 11-5 ILLINOIS
12 3.926 5 1.632 12 0.6222 3 11-5 NORTH CAROLINA
13 3.910 19 1.134 22 0.6020 4 11-5 BOSTON COLLEGE
14 3.870 12 1.325 11 0.6230 5 10-6 PITTSBURGH
16 3.841 18 1.139 6 0.6329 2 12-4 TENNESSEE
18 3.772 14 1.259 13 0.6216 4 14-2 LOUISIANA ST.
20 3.735 13 1.289 35 0.5922 5 13-5 WASHINGTON
21 3.686 17 1.155 36 0.5920 7 10-6 GEORGETOWN
23 3.625 20 1.105 38 0.5918 6 11-5 WEST VIRGINIA
25 3.589 45 0.851 27 0.5983 7 14-4 WICHITA ST.
26 3.578 36 0.943 16 0.6118 6 11-5 OKLAHOMA
27 3.571 21 1.076 44 0.5847 12 10-6 TEXAS A&M
29 3.556 16 1.169 45 0.5829 8 10-6 ARKANSAS
30 3.549 65 0.717 30 0.5971 XX 14-4 HOFSTRA
31 3.543 25 1.011 18 0.6085 6 8-8 MICHIGAN ST.
32 3.524 58 0.762 32 0.5943 9 12-2 ALA.-BIRMINGHAM
33 3.513 22 1.062 21 0.6030 XX 12-6 MISSOURI ST.
34 3.506 23 1.024 31 0.5962 7 10-6 MARQUETTE
35 3.499 33 0.966 25 0.5990 10 11-7 N. IOWA
37 3.471 26 1.008 24 0.5992 8 11-7 ARIZONA
38 3.455 24 1.016 41 0.5890 8 9-7 KENTUCKY
41 3.441 32 0.970 26 0.5984 11 15-3 GEORGE MASON
49 3.366 34 0.959 23 0.6000 9 9-7 WISCONSIN
So that's 26 of 28 "locks" that made the tournament. The teams left out were Missouri State and Hofstra. Missouri State's omission is especially curious. They finished tied for second in their conference, and were the top-ranked MVC team in the RPI rankings. Most likely, it was "MVC fatigue"; Wichita State and Bradley were also selected as at-large bids, and the commmittee probably felt that the MVC didn't deserve a fourth bid. Of course, any objective measurement ranked Missouri State ahead of Bradley (and Missouri State also had a better conference record), so this still is a very curious choice.
The other omission was Hofstra, a team ranked #30 in the RPI, as well as #30 in my win-loss ranking. The only reason to leave out Hofstra is their poor score-based (predictive) ranking, which is a fair enough excuse. But, if we're leaving out teams we suspect aren't good (despite a good record), UAB would have been an equally good team to leave out, and they were given a 9-seed for having finished second in a supposedly major conference (never mind that CAA was stronger than CUSA this year). More likely, the committee didn't want to take more than two CAA teams.
It's probably worth noting that this is the second straight year in which two "historical locks" have been omitted, and both years, both teams left out were from mid-major conferences...
OK, now for the teams on the bubble. This means teams in the RPI top 68, preferably at least at .500 in conference play.
STANDARD PREDICTIVE RPI
RNK RATING RNK RATING RNK RATING SD CREC TEAM
28 3.565 39 0.908 51 0.5790 10 10-6 N.C. STATE
36 3.472 31 0.971 63 0.5658 XX 9-7 FLORIDA ST.
39 3.448 35 0.951 34 0.5932 6 9-7 INDIANA
42 3.439 50 0.824 50 0.5791 13 12-4 AIR FORCE
43 3.435 64 0.720 59 0.5716 XX 9-7 COLORADO
44 3.433 40 0.902 57 0.5739 7 12-6 CALIFORNIA
45 3.412 44 0.858 47 0.5807 XX 8-8 MICHIGAN
47 3.383 41 0.879 40 0.5895 XX 8-8 CINCINNATI
48 3.371 61 0.757 39 0.5906 XX 12-6 CREIGHTON
50 3.363 54 0.799 49 0.5799 XX 8-8 MARYLAND
51 3.331 27 1.003 33 0.5934 13 11-7 BRADLEY
53 3.278 83 0.575 58 0.5725 10 9-7 SETON HALL
54 3.246 68 0.700 46 0.5815 12 11-5 UTAH ST.
57 3.226 66 0.713 56 0.5748 10 10-6 ALABAMA
58 3.225 29 0.993 43 0.5862 XX 9-7 ST. JOSEPH'S
61 3.194 91 0.472 67 0.5638 XX 12-4 BRIGHAM YOUNG
62 3.193 96 0.457 54 0.5766 XX 12-2 W. KENTUCKY
73 3.103 81 0.598 53 0.5773 XX 9-5 HOUSTON
84 2.995 86 0.517 68 0.5620 XX 11-5 LOUISIANA TECH
Needless to say, we've got some very curious selections here. First the good — the bottom six teams in my rankings were all left out. Also, all teams exactly .500 were left out. And we can understand Florida State's omission due to a poor RPI. (FSU ranked #31 in my "improved RPI", once again demonstrating that the NCAA really needs a new official ranking system, but this can't be blamed on the committee.)
This leaves the selections of Seton Hall, Utah State, and Alabama, while Colorado and Creighton were left out. Creighton was apparently a MVC team that "had" to be left out (along with Missouri State). As for Colorado, this is another inexplicable omission; the Buffalos were probably dumped due to the combination of poor RPI and predictive ranking.
So putting all the selections and seedings together, what do we get? In terms of the tangible rankings, the selections are best modeled with 53% win-loss ranking, 31% RPI ranking, and 16% predictive ranking. So certainly it's nice to see that the committee's primary decision-making procedure mimics a statistically-sound ranking based on wins and losses only, but it's also disturbing to see that the RPI accounts for about 1/3 of the selection process.
Note: if you use any of the facts, equations, or mathematical principles introduced here, you must give me credit.