Selections
So, the obvious question here is: what were they smoking when Virginia Tech came up? We have a 23-8 team that tied for third in the ACC, which my rankings listed as the nation's toughest conference. You can argue this or that about who they played, didn't beat, etc. But, that's just cherry-picking the stats. By the numbers, the Hokies played a schedule against which an average top-25 team would hav gone 24-7. They had just one more loss. The upshot is that a team (barely) in the top-25 was left out of the tournament.
Aside from intoxicants, what could have happened here? The obvious thing is to go past "my" ratings (standard and predictive), and see what happens when you start using the less-accurate RPI-like systems. With a fully-iterative RPI (your ranking is your winning percentage plus the average ranking of your opponents), the Hokies drop from #25 (statistical system) to #45. When you actually invoke the real RPI's approximation of the "average ranking of your opponents", they fall further to #54 (and all the way to #59 with the official RPI). So, let's give 90% of the blame to the RPI, which given the alterantives available, is a truly idiotic way to be deciding who gets dance cards and who doesn't.
This doesn't let the committee totally off the hook. There are still the case of Minnesota, which was worse in every aspect than Virginia Tech: my ranking, the RPI ranking, record, etc. (Not only that, but they weren't the lowest-seeded at-large teams.) That looks to be a mystery.
Minor points: Utah State (#49 here, #32 RPI) and Louisville (#52/#38) profited from the use of the RPI. Purely speculation, but the omission of UAB indicates that the committee was looking to some extent at how well the team "performed" -- that is, they had a nice ranking, but tended to win the squeakers, indicating they were a roll of the dice away from a much worse record.
Seeds
Given the format of a single-elimination tournament, where you're seeded is obviously less important than getting in or not. Nevertheless, I'll go ahead and list the teams that were seeded overly favorably (relative to the better of the NCAA RPI, my standard, and my predictive) and overly badly (the worst of the three). Actually, it's a short list. Everyone was listed within two seeds of where they could have been, given the option of three ratings considered...
Relevant Team Rankings (at time of selections)
STANDARD PREDICTIVE IMPRVD RPI RPI
TEAM W L SCHED ELOSS RNK RATING RNK RATING RNK RATING RNK RATING
KANSAS 32 2 1.110 8.867 1 4.916 1 2.101 1 0.6451 1 0.6884 1 *
KENTUCKY 32 2 0.760 6.430 2 4.683 3 1.699 2 0.6335 2 0.6665 1 *
DUKE 29 5 1.137 9.451 3 4.604 2 2.080 5 0.6237 3 0.6640 1 *
SYRACUSE 28 4 0.934 7.441 4 4.500 4 1.679 4 0.6259 5 0.6509 1
WEST VIRGINIA 27 6 1.016 8.965 5 4.402 11 1.567 3 0.6304 4 0.6600 2 *
PURDUE 27 5 0.905 7.812 6 4.396 16 1.384 11 0.6077 16 0.6228 4
KANSAS ST. 26 7 1.065 9.182 7 4.295 8 1.624 7 0.6137 6 0.6457 2
OHIO ST. 27 7 0.973 8.614 8 4.252 5 1.664 21 0.5908 22 0.6130 2 *
VILLANOVA 24 7 0.986 8.482 9 4.223 14 1.415 10 0.6103 14 0.6246 2
BAYLOR 25 7 0.980 8.350 10 4.213 9 1.582 13 0.6023 8 0.6334 3
NEW MEXICO 29 4 0.501 5.171 11 4.189 45 1.032 9 0.6122 10 0.6298 3
BUTLER 28 4 0.496 4.704 12 4.167 29 1.196 8 0.6134 11 0.6269 5 *
TEMPLE 29 5 0.609 5.861 13 4.166 26 1.257 6 0.6199 9 0.6307 5 *
BYU 29 5 0.652 5.290 14 4.129 7 1.627 17 0.5966 24 0.6121 7
TEXAS A&M 23 9 1.004 9.335 15 4.093 20 1.330 20 0.5921 12 0.6264 5
WISCONSIN 23 8 0.991 7.963 16 4.053 6 1.655 23 0.5872 21 0.6141 4
MARYLAND 23 8 0.990 8.036 17 4.038 10 1.573 22 0.5877 23 0.6123 4
MICHIGAN ST. 24 8 0.868 7.762 18 4.037 24 1.308 28 0.5846 29 0.6030 5
TENNESSEE 25 8 0.812 7.641 19 4.020 31 1.192 18 0.5956 13 0.6259 6
GEORGETOWN 23 10 1.053 9.625 20 4.005 12 1.540 14 0.6019 7 0.6344 3
TEXAS 24 9 0.940 8.203 21 3.984 15 1.389 27 0.5855 28 0.6032 8
PITTSBURGH 24 8 0.784 7.409 22 3.945 30 1.194 15 0.5983 15 0.6236 3
FLORIDA ST. 22 9 0.940 8.319 23 3.935 25 1.297 38 0.5765 41 0.5914 9
NORTHERN IOWA 28 4 0.345 3.633 24 3.918 42 1.066 12 0.6041 17 0.6209 9 *
VIRGINIA TECH 23 8 0.758 7.109 25 3.907 35 1.154 45 0.5718 54 0.5768 --
VANDERBILT 24 8 0.781 6.948 26 3.891 32 1.175 24 0.5869 26 0.6107 4
GONZAGA 26 6 0.495 5.315 27 3.862 50 0.987 29 0.5828 36 0.5956 8
XAVIER 24 8 0.731 6.440 28 3.859 19 1.334 16 0.5968 19 0.6150 6
UTEP 26 6 0.481 4.702 29 3.819 33 1.162 32 0.5808 37 0.5955 12
RICHMOND 26 8 0.585 6.296 30 3.818 47 1.006 19 0.5937 25 0.6108 7
ST. MARY'S 26 5 0.367 3.689 31 3.817 41 1.096 25 0.5862 35 0.5963 10 *
CLEMSON 21 10 0.927 7.963 32 3.795 17 1.371 37 0.5768 34 0.5986 7
OKLAHOMA ST. 22 10 0.789 7.930 33 3.792 39 1.103 36 0.5772 30 0.6028 7
GEORGIA TECH 22 12 0.961 9.387 34 3.771 27 1.255 48 0.5713 33 0.6000 10
MARQUETTE 22 11 0.918 8.769 35 3.769 28 1.247 41 0.5749 50 0.5817 6
CALIFORNIA 23 10 0.839 7.415 36 3.766 13 1.417 30 0.5824 20 0.6142 8
MISSOURI 22 10 0.887 7.735 37 3.749 18 1.366 49 0.5704 45 0.5865 10
CORNELL 27 4 0.131 3.457 38 3.744 69 0.763 33 0.5799 47 0.5836 12 *
WAKE FOREST 19 10 0.864 7.732 39 3.730 54 0.974 43 0.5733 39 0.5932 9
SAN DIEGO ST. 25 8 0.566 5.648 40 3.716 40 1.097 26 0.5857 18 0.6154 11 *
WASHINGTON 24 9 0.654 5.948 41 3.703 23 1.308 42 0.5746 42 0.5908 11 *
UNLV 25 8 0.529 5.309 42 3.682 38 1.105 40 0.5754 46 0.5838 8
OLD DOMINION 26 8 0.478 5.114 43 3.672 37 1.123 31 0.5821 27 0.6034 11 *
SIENA 27 6 0.187 3.584 44 3.632 63 0.813 34 0.5798 31 0.6023 13 *
NOTRE DAME 23 11 0.688 7.348 45 3.607 34 1.156 47 0.5713 49 0.5830 6
MURRAY ST. 30 4 -0.072 2.033 46 3.593 56 0.930 50 0.5694 57 0.5749 13 *
MISSISSIPPI 21 10 0.679 6.557 47 3.592 52 0.978 56 0.5612 59 0.5716 --
UAB 24 8 0.401 4.395 48 3.586 66 0.778 44 0.5722 43 0.5901 --
UTAH ST. 27 7 0.324 3.443 49 3.583 21 1.313 39 0.5764 32 0.6019 12
MINNESOTA 21 13 0.882 8.436 50 3.574 22 1.312 70 0.5525 60 0.5711 11
MISSISSIPPI ST. 24 11 0.640 6.716 51 3.566 43 1.047 53 0.5645 53 0.5775 --
LOUISVILLE 20 12 0.812 7.742 52 3.555 36 1.124 46 0.5716 38 0.5942 9
RHODE ISLAND 23 9 0.440 5.038 53 3.536 72 0.734 35 0.5798 40 0.5928 --
ILLINOIS 19 14 0.864 9.048 54 3.533 51 0.980 76 0.5470 73 0.5596 --
FLORIDA 21 12 0.749 7.652 55 3.522 48 1.000 57 0.5605 56 0.5758 10
OAKLAND 26 8 -0.064 4.393 73 3.273 130 0.234 59 0.5596 52 0.5791 14 *
NEW MEXICO ST. 22 11 0.261 5.054 75 3.262 108 0.384 68 0.5539 51 0.5798 12 *
WOFFORD 26 8 0.021 3.092 76 3.241 91 0.566 55 0.5614 70 0.5627 13 *
SAM HOUSTON ST. 25 7 -0.141 2.135 94 3.054 104 0.435 82 0.5440 69 0.5629 14 *
HOUSTON 19 15 0.359 4.734 104 2.909 83 0.612 125 0.5196 110 0.5305 13 *
UCSB 20 9 -0.074 2.469 109 2.883 146 0.115 90 0.5387 96 0.5416 15 *
MONTANA 22 9 -0.070 2.178 110 2.874 103 0.440 94 0.5364 97 0.5411 14 *
MORGAN ST. 27 9 -0.363 2.878 113 2.846 152 0.090 96 0.5359 101 0.5378 15 *
NORTH TEXAS 24 8 -0.340 1.928 118 2.812 165 0.010 103 0.5320 104 0.5360 15 *
VERMONT 25 9 -0.346 1.586 125 2.732 134 0.189 105 0.5312 120 0.5256 16 *
OHIO 21 14 0.076 3.148 130 2.704 101 0.453 102 0.5322 95 0.5422 14 *
ROBERT MORRIS 23 11 -0.453 2.393 158 2.474 190 -0.126 145 0.5129 131 0.5215 15 *
E. TENNESSEE ST. 20 14 -0.076 3.076 160 2.449 147 0.110 137 0.5160 121 0.5253 16 *
LEHIGH 22 10 -0.599 1.322 186 2.266 180 -0.073 169 0.5016 151 0.5121 16 *
AR PINE BLUFF 18 15 -0.533 4.345 220 1.936 229 -0.420 187 0.4938 171 0.5005 16 *
WINTHROP 19 14 -0.484 2.273 211 2.048 224 -0.381 175 0.4997 174 0.4997 16 *
* automatic berth
Note: if you use any of the facts, equations, or mathematical principles introduced here, you must give me credit.