Basketball Tournament Predictions (2016)

Biggest Surprise: Syracuse to Final Four (1.60%)

Syracuse's tournament run was the result of several unlikely occurances. At the start of the tournament, they had a 1.60% chance of winning the region. What happened?

The favorite in their region (Michigan State) was upset in the first round by Middle Tennessee (a 4.7% probability). This increased Syracuse's odds of making the final four to 11.6%, which increased to 13.0% after no upsets of significance in the second round.
Syracuse and Gonzaga in the sweet sixteen were a near-even match. My ratings favored Gonzaga slightly (59%), but Syracuse won and increased their chance of reaching the final four to 25.8%.
Syracuse was a heavy underdog to Virginia in the elite eight (25.8% chance of winning) but came back from 16 points down to win.

Number of Upsets

Are there more upsets in the NCAA tournament than if these were just regular season games? For this analysis, "upset" is defined by a team with less than 50% chance (as calculated below) winning its game (generally the same as the betting underdog) rather than based on committee seeding. (Counting by seeds, there would have been two additional upsets than the numbers below report.)

First Four: 1.6 predicted, 1 actual
First Round: 7.9 predicted, 10 actual
Second Round: 5.3 predicted, 4 actual
Sweet Sixteen: 3.2 predicted, 2 actual
Elite Eight: 1.4 predicted, 2 actual
Final Four: 0.7 predicted, 0 actual
Championship: 0.5 predicted, 0 actual
Grand Total: 20.6 predicted, 19 actual

For this tournament, the number of upsets was less than the expected number of upsets by 1.6, which translates to a 0.4-sigma result (36th percentile on a bell curve).

Odds of Advancing to Round, April 3

Champion

*54.22% VILLANOVA 45.78% NORTH CAROLINA

Champion
*54.22% VILLANOVA 45.78% NORTH CAROLINA

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 28

Finals Champion

*72.05% NORTH CAROLINA *58.91% VILLANOVA 41.09% OKLAHOMA 27.95% SYRACUSE

39.18% NORTH CAROLINA *32.68% VILLANOVA 19.23% OKLAHOMA 8.91% SYRACUSE

Finals	Champion
72.05% NORTH CAROLINA 58.91% VILLANOVA 41.09% OKLAHOMA 27.95% SYRACUSE	39.18% NORTH CAROLINA *32.68% VILLANOVA 19.23% OKLAHOMA 8.91% SYRACUSE

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 26

Final Four Finals Champion

*77.95% NORTH CAROLINA 74.22% VIRGINIA 55.11% KANSAS *51.46% OKLAHOMA 48.54% OREGON *44.89% VILLANOVA *25.78% SYRACUSE 22.05% NOTRE DAME

*43.01% NORTH CAROLINA 42.47% VIRGINIA 35.82% KANSAS *27.00% VILLANOVA 19.49% OKLAHOMA 17.70% OREGON 8.54% SYRACUSE 5.98% NOTRE DAME

22.98% VIRGINIA 22.80% NORTH CAROLINA 20.44% KANSAS *14.07% VILLANOVA 8.36% OKLAHOMA 7.35% OREGON 2.52% SYRACUSE 1.48% NOTRE DAME

Final Four	Finals	Champion
77.95% NORTH CAROLINA 74.22% VIRGINIA 55.11% KANSAS 51.46% OKLAHOMA 48.54% OREGON 44.89% VILLANOVA 25.78% SYRACUSE 22.05% NOTRE DAME	43.01% NORTH CAROLINA 42.47% VIRGINIA 35.82% KANSAS 27.00% VILLANOVA 19.49% OKLAHOMA 17.70% OREGON 8.54% SYRACUSE 5.98% NOTRE DAME	22.98% VIRGINIA 22.80% NORTH CAROLINA 20.44% KANSAS *14.07% VILLANOVA 8.36% OKLAHOMA 7.35% OREGON 2.52% SYRACUSE 1.48% NOTRE DAME

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 21

Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion

*72.95% KANSAS *68.67% VIRGINIA *61.81% VILLANOVA *59.14% NORTH CAROLINA 58.64% GONZAGA *53.62% OREGON 52.93% WISCONSIN *51.23% OKLAHOMA 48.77% TEXAS A&M *47.07% NOTRE DAME 46.38% DUKE *41.36% SYRACUSE 40.86% INDIANA 38.19% MIAMI (FL) 31.33% IOWA STATE 27.05% MARYLAND

47.82% VIRGINIA *45.06% NORTH CAROLINA 44.37% KANSAS *30.88% VILLANOVA 27.99% INDIANA *27.17% OKLAHOMA 26.41% OREGON 25.27% TEXAS A&M 23.11% GONZAGA 21.16% DUKE 16.04% IOWA STATE 14.87% WISCONSIN 14.73% MIAMI (FL) *13.03% SYRACUSE 12.09% NOTRE DAME 10.02% MARYLAND

29.53% KANSAS 29.19% VIRGINIA *26.35% NORTH CAROLINA *18.66% VILLANOVA 13.89% INDIANA 11.41% OKLAHOMA 10.75% OREGON 10.37% GONZAGA 10.32% TEXAS A&M 7.89% DUKE 7.15% MIAMI (FL) 6.84% IOWA STATE 4.90% WISCONSIN 4.79% SYRACUSE 4.28% MARYLAND 3.67% NOTRE DAME

17.91% KANSAS 16.88% VIRGINIA 14.84% NORTH CAROLINA *10.16% VILLANOVA 6.57% INDIANA 5.24% OKLAHOMA 4.80% OREGON 4.61% TEXAS A&M 4.28% GONZAGA 3.25% DUKE 3.07% MIAMI (FL) 2.67% IOWA STATE 1.60% MARYLAND 1.59% SYRACUSE 1.50% WISCONSIN 1.04% NOTRE DAME

Elite Eight	Final Four	Finals	Champion
72.95% KANSAS 68.67% VIRGINIA 61.81% VILLANOVA 59.14% NORTH CAROLINA 58.64% GONZAGA 53.62% OREGON 52.93% WISCONSIN 51.23% OKLAHOMA 48.77% TEXAS A&M 47.07% NOTRE DAME 46.38% DUKE 41.36% SYRACUSE 40.86% INDIANA 38.19% MIAMI (FL) 31.33% IOWA STATE 27.05% MARYLAND	47.82% VIRGINIA 45.06% NORTH CAROLINA 44.37% KANSAS 30.88% VILLANOVA 27.99% INDIANA 27.17% OKLAHOMA 26.41% OREGON 25.27% TEXAS A&M 23.11% GONZAGA 21.16% DUKE 16.04% IOWA STATE 14.87% WISCONSIN 14.73% MIAMI (FL) 13.03% SYRACUSE 12.09% NOTRE DAME 10.02% MARYLAND	29.53% KANSAS 29.19% VIRGINIA 26.35% NORTH CAROLINA 18.66% VILLANOVA 13.89% INDIANA 11.41% OKLAHOMA 10.75% OREGON 10.37% GONZAGA 10.32% TEXAS A&M 7.89% DUKE 7.15% MIAMI (FL) 6.84% IOWA STATE 4.90% WISCONSIN 4.79% SYRACUSE 4.28% MARYLAND 3.67% NOTRE DAME	17.91% KANSAS 16.88% VIRGINIA 14.84% NORTH CAROLINA *10.16% VILLANOVA 6.57% INDIANA 5.24% OKLAHOMA 4.80% OREGON 4.61% TEXAS A&M 4.28% GONZAGA 3.25% DUKE 3.07% MIAMI (FL) 2.67% IOWA STATE 1.60% MARYLAND 1.59% SYRACUSE 1.50% WISCONSIN 1.04% NOTRE DAME

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 19

Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion

*80.73% NORTH CAROLINA *78.06% SYRACUSE *77.82% TEXAS A&M *75.08% VIRGINIA *72.93% KANSAS *70.16% OREGON *68.35% IOWA STATE *67.43% MARYLAND *67.42% OKLAHOMA *66.89% VILLANOVA *66.81% DUKE 61.23% XAVIER 57.29% KENTUCKY 55.11% WICHITA ST 53.91% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN *52.92% GONZAGA 47.08% UTAH *46.09% NOTRE DAME *44.89% MIAMI (FL) *42.71% INDIANA *38.77% WISCONSIN 33.19% YALE 33.11% IOWA 32.58% VCU 32.57% HAWAII 31.65% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 29.84% SAINT JOSEPH'S 27.07% CONNECTICUT 24.92% BUTLER 22.18% NORTHERN IOWA 21.94% MIDDLE TENNESSEE 19.27% PROVIDENCE

*56.37% KANSAS *55.84% VIRGINIA *44.35% NORTH CAROLINA 42.87% TEXAS A&M *42.12% OREGON *39.12% VILLANOVA *38.25% OKLAHOMA 37.33% XAVIER 34.42% DUKE *33.91% SYRACUSE 33.61% GONZAGA 31.05% KENTUCKY 28.66% UTAH 27.27% WICHITA ST 25.03% IOWA STATE 24.34% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 22.24% MARYLAND 20.18% INDIANA 19.96% MIAMI (FL) 19.28% WISCONSIN *19.04% NOTRE DAME 15.16% CONNECTICUT 13.65% IOWA 12.94% VCU 12.39% BUTLER 11.82% SAINT JOSEPH'S 11.63% YALE 6.73% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 6.23% HAWAII 5.93% NORTHERN IOWA 4.42% PROVIDENCE 3.82% MIDDLE TENNESSEE

40.90% VIRGINIA 35.94% KANSAS *31.63% NORTH CAROLINA 24.36% TEXAS A&M 22.40% OREGON *21.96% OKLAHOMA 21.66% KENTUCKY *20.97% VILLANOVA 16.75% DUKE 14.38% XAVIER 13.93% GONZAGA 13.58% IOWA STATE 13.01% WICHITA ST 12.74% INDIANA *11.62% SYRACUSE 11.11% UTAH 8.84% MARYLAND 8.57% MIAMI (FL) 7.33% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 6.07% CONNECTICUT 5.96% BUTLER 5.47% WISCONSIN 5.17% VCU 5.11% IOWA 5.11% NOTRE DAME 3.92% SAINT JOSEPH'S 3.76% YALE 2.41% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 1.70% PROVIDENCE 1.67% NORTHERN IOWA 1.49% HAWAII 0.49% MIDDLE TENNESSEE

24.92% VIRGINIA 24.33% KANSAS *19.38% NORTH CAROLINA 12.90% KENTUCKY *12.68% VILLANOVA 11.20% TEXAS A&M 10.23% OKLAHOMA 10.21% OREGON 7.08% WICHITA ST 6.89% DUKE 6.71% INDIANA 6.68% XAVIER 5.79% GONZAGA 5.57% IOWA STATE 4.31% UTAH 4.23% MIAMI (FL) 3.98% SYRACUSE 3.90% MARYLAND 2.77% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 2.70% CONNECTICUT 2.22% IOWA 2.10% BUTLER 1.96% WISCONSIN 1.75% NOTRE DAME 1.55% VCU 1.05% SAINT JOSEPH'S 0.98% YALE 0.59% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 0.50% PROVIDENCE 0.41% HAWAII 0.34% NORTHERN IOWA 0.06% MIDDLE TENNESSEE

15.00% VIRGINIA 14.99% KANSAS 11.23% NORTH CAROLINA 7.25% KENTUCKY *6.88% VILLANOVA 5.32% TEXAS A&M 4.92% OKLAHOMA 4.81% OREGON 3.41% WICHITA ST 3.29% INDIANA 2.94% DUKE 2.86% XAVIER 2.36% GONZAGA 2.24% IOWA STATE 1.83% MIAMI (FL) 1.64% UTAH 1.49% MARYLAND 1.33% SYRACUSE 1.04% CONNECTICUT 0.95% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 0.84% IOWA 0.72% BUTLER 0.63% WISCONSIN 0.54% NOTRE DAME 0.49% VCU 0.29% SAINT JOSEPH'S 0.27% YALE 0.14% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 0.13% PROVIDENCE 0.10% HAWAII 0.07% NORTHERN IOWA 0.01% MIDDLE TENNESSEE

Sweet Sixteen	Elite Eight	Final Four	Finals	Champion
80.73% NORTH CAROLINA 78.06% SYRACUSE 77.82% TEXAS A&M 75.08% VIRGINIA 72.93% KANSAS 70.16% OREGON 68.35% IOWA STATE 67.43% MARYLAND 67.42% OKLAHOMA 66.89% VILLANOVA 66.81% DUKE 61.23% XAVIER 57.29% KENTUCKY 55.11% WICHITA ST 53.91% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 52.92% GONZAGA 47.08% UTAH 46.09% NOTRE DAME 44.89% MIAMI (FL) 42.71% INDIANA 38.77% WISCONSIN 33.19% YALE 33.11% IOWA 32.58% VCU 32.57% HAWAII 31.65% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 29.84% SAINT JOSEPH'S 27.07% CONNECTICUT 24.92% BUTLER 22.18% NORTHERN IOWA 21.94% MIDDLE TENNESSEE 19.27% PROVIDENCE	56.37% KANSAS 55.84% VIRGINIA 44.35% NORTH CAROLINA 42.87% TEXAS A&M 42.12% OREGON 39.12% VILLANOVA 38.25% OKLAHOMA 37.33% XAVIER 34.42% DUKE 33.91% SYRACUSE 33.61% GONZAGA 31.05% KENTUCKY 28.66% UTAH 27.27% WICHITA ST 25.03% IOWA STATE 24.34% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 22.24% MARYLAND 20.18% INDIANA 19.96% MIAMI (FL) 19.28% WISCONSIN 19.04% NOTRE DAME 15.16% CONNECTICUT 13.65% IOWA 12.94% VCU 12.39% BUTLER 11.82% SAINT JOSEPH'S 11.63% YALE 6.73% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 6.23% HAWAII 5.93% NORTHERN IOWA 4.42% PROVIDENCE 3.82% MIDDLE TENNESSEE	40.90% VIRGINIA 35.94% KANSAS 31.63% NORTH CAROLINA 24.36% TEXAS A&M 22.40% OREGON 21.96% OKLAHOMA 21.66% KENTUCKY 20.97% VILLANOVA 16.75% DUKE 14.38% XAVIER 13.93% GONZAGA 13.58% IOWA STATE 13.01% WICHITA ST 12.74% INDIANA 11.62% SYRACUSE 11.11% UTAH 8.84% MARYLAND 8.57% MIAMI (FL) 7.33% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 6.07% CONNECTICUT 5.96% BUTLER 5.47% WISCONSIN 5.17% VCU 5.11% IOWA 5.11% NOTRE DAME 3.92% SAINT JOSEPH'S 3.76% YALE 2.41% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 1.70% PROVIDENCE 1.67% NORTHERN IOWA 1.49% HAWAII 0.49% MIDDLE TENNESSEE	24.92% VIRGINIA 24.33% KANSAS 19.38% NORTH CAROLINA 12.90% KENTUCKY 12.68% VILLANOVA 11.20% TEXAS A&M 10.23% OKLAHOMA 10.21% OREGON 7.08% WICHITA ST 6.89% DUKE 6.71% INDIANA 6.68% XAVIER 5.79% GONZAGA 5.57% IOWA STATE 4.31% UTAH 4.23% MIAMI (FL) 3.98% SYRACUSE 3.90% MARYLAND 2.77% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 2.70% CONNECTICUT 2.22% IOWA 2.10% BUTLER 1.96% WISCONSIN 1.75% NOTRE DAME 1.55% VCU 1.05% SAINT JOSEPH'S 0.98% YALE 0.59% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 0.50% PROVIDENCE 0.41% HAWAII 0.34% NORTHERN IOWA 0.06% MIDDLE TENNESSEE	15.00% VIRGINIA 14.99% KANSAS 11.23% NORTH CAROLINA 7.25% KENTUCKY *6.88% VILLANOVA 5.32% TEXAS A&M 4.92% OKLAHOMA 4.81% OREGON 3.41% WICHITA ST 3.29% INDIANA 2.94% DUKE 2.86% XAVIER 2.36% GONZAGA 2.24% IOWA STATE 1.83% MIAMI (FL) 1.64% UTAH 1.49% MARYLAND 1.33% SYRACUSE 1.04% CONNECTICUT 0.95% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 0.84% IOWA 0.72% BUTLER 0.63% WISCONSIN 0.54% NOTRE DAME 0.49% VCU 0.29% SAINT JOSEPH'S 0.27% YALE 0.14% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 0.13% PROVIDENCE 0.10% HAWAII 0.07% NORTHERN IOWA 0.01% MIDDLE TENNESSEE

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 16

Second Round Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion

*98.83% VIRGINIA *98.60% KANSAS *98.18% OREGON *96.72% NORTH CAROLINA 95.39% MICHIGAN STATE *90.60% VILLANOVA *88.74% XAVIER *88.71% MIAMI (FL) *88.68% KENTUCKY *88.16% TEXAS A&M *87.35% OKLAHOMA *86.34% INDIANA 80.00% PURDUE *79.82% DUKE *78.93% IOWA STATE *78.26% UTAH *78.00% MARYLAND *75.89% IOWA 75.15% WEST VIRGINIA 70.54% CALIFORNIA 68.85% TEXAS 65.23% BAYLOR *64.19% CONNECTICUT *59.55% VCU 57.44% CINCINNATI *56.54% SYRACUSE *55.78% BUTLER 53.77% ARIZONA 52.24% USC *51.87% GONZAGA *50.68% NOTRE DAME 50.14% PITTSBURGH *49.86% WISCONSIN 49.32% MICHIGAN 48.13% SETON HALL *47.76% PROVIDENCE *46.23% WICHITA ST 44.22% TEXAS TECH 43.46% DAYTON *42.56% SAINT JOSEPH'S 40.45% OREGON STATE 35.81% COLORADO *34.77% YALE *31.15% NORTHERN IOWA *29.46% HAWAII *24.85% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 24.11% TEMPLE 22.00% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 21.74% FRESNO STATE 21.07% IONA 20.18% UNC WILMINGTON *20.00% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 13.66% CHATTANOOGA 12.65% CSU BAKERSFIELD 11.84% GREEN BAY 11.32% STONY BROOK 11.29% BUFFALO 11.26% WEBER STATE 9.40% UNC ASHEVILLE * 4.61% MIDDLE TENNESSEE 3.28% FLORIDA GULF COAST 1.82% HOLY CROSS 1.40% AUSTIN PEAY 1.17% HAMPTON

78.70% MICHIGAN STATE *78.38% NORTH CAROLINA *77.17% KANSAS *76.18% VIRGINIA *63.98% OREGON *63.12% OKLAHOMA *62.28% VILLANOVA *58.84% TEXAS A&M 57.36% WEST VIRGINIA 54.04% KENTUCKY 53.84% XAVIER 53.16% PURDUE *47.12% DUKE *44.39% MIAMI (FL) *44.11% MARYLAND *41.71% INDIANA 39.69% UTAH 39.27% CALIFORNIA *35.74% IOWA STATE 34.15% BAYLOR 31.05% IOWA 30.10% ARIZONA 30.01% TEXAS *29.21% GONZAGA 26.25% SETON HALL 24.23% WICHITA ST 22.31% CINCINNATI 22.20% PITTSBURGH *22.01% WISCONSIN 21.68% VCU 16.89% CONNECTICUT *15.27% NOTRE DAME 14.59% MICHIGAN 14.32% BUTLER 13.63% SAINT JOSEPH'S 13.13% YALE 12.78% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN *12.49% SYRACUSE 11.50% OREGON STATE 11.39% USC 10.47% HAWAII 9.69% PROVIDENCE 9.42% TEXAS TECH 8.36% NORTHERN IOWA 7.76% DAYTON 7.08% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 6.16% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 5.82% COLORADO 5.59% UNC WILMINGTON 4.85% FRESNO STATE 4.59% TEMPLE 4.02% IONA 3.70% CSU BAKERSFIELD 2.79% GREEN BAY 2.24% STONY BROOK 2.08% UNC ASHEVILLE 2.01% CHATTANOOGA 1.95% WEBER STATE 1.28% BUFFALO 1.05% MIDDLE TENNESSEE 0.55% FLORIDA GULF COAST 0.12% AUSTIN PEAY 0.08% HOLY CROSS 0.08% HAMPTON

59.60% MICHIGAN STATE *58.95% KANSAS *49.02% VIRGINIA *46.38% NORTH CAROLINA 39.71% WEST VIRGINIA *37.98% OKLAHOMA *37.05% OREGON *36.40% VILLANOVA 32.57% TEXAS A&M 28.15% KENTUCKY 26.30% PURDUE 25.46% XAVIER 24.91% DUKE 21.71% MIAMI (FL) 19.22% INDIANA 16.76% BAYLOR 15.22% ARIZONA 14.55% MARYLAND 13.93% IOWA 13.89% IOWA STATE 13.31% TEXAS 13.16% UTAH 12.78% CALIFORNIA 11.37% WICHITA ST 10.23% CINCINNATI 9.74% GONZAGA 8.93% VCU 8.93% CONNECTICUT 8.34% SETON HALL 8.31% PITTSBURGH 8.21% WISCONSIN * 6.46% NOTRE DAME 6.08% MICHIGAN 5.55% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 5.54% BUTLER * 5.46% SYRACUSE 5.28% SAINT JOSEPH'S 4.49% YALE 3.74% OREGON STATE 3.16% TEXAS TECH 3.13% USC 2.90% DAYTON 2.49% PROVIDENCE 2.27% NORTHERN IOWA 2.26% COLORADO 1.77% HAWAII 1.48% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 1.27% UNC WILMINGTON 0.94% TEMPLE 0.75% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.74% CSU BAKERSFIELD 0.61% FRESNO STATE 0.60% IONA 0.46% GREEN BAY 0.32% STONY BROOK 0.29% UNC ASHEVILLE 0.27% CHATTANOOGA 0.22% WEBER STATE 0.18% MIDDLE TENNESSEE 0.15% BUFFALO 0.03% FLORIDA GULF COAST 0.01% AUSTIN PEAY 0.00% HAMPTON 0.00% HOLY CROSS

39.60% KANSAS 36.92% MICHIGAN STATE *30.15% NORTH CAROLINA 27.68% VIRGINIA *22.48% OKLAHOMA 20.97% WEST VIRGINIA 19.68% OREGON 18.19% TEXAS A&M *18.08% VILLANOVA 17.02% KENTUCKY 13.06% PURDUE 12.61% DUKE 10.45% INDIANA 9.81% XAVIER 9.15% MIAMI (FL) 7.86% BAYLOR 6.65% ARIZONA 6.25% MARYLAND 5.91% TEXAS 5.45% IOWA STATE 5.43% CALIFORNIA 5.15% IOWA 4.86% UTAH 4.58% WICHITA ST 4.21% CINCINNATI 3.72% CONNECTICUT 3.61% GONZAGA 3.56% VCU 2.95% SETON HALL 2.41% PITTSBURGH 2.37% WISCONSIN 1.81% SAINT JOSEPH'S 1.77% BUTLER 1.73% NOTRE DAME * 1.62% SYRACUSE 1.59% MICHIGAN 1.54% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 1.45% YALE 1.16% OREGON STATE 1.04% USC 0.86% TEXAS TECH 0.78% PROVIDENCE 0.71% DAYTON 0.65% COLORADO 0.61% NORTHERN IOWA 0.42% HAWAII 0.32% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 0.27% UNC WILMINGTON 0.15% TEMPLE 0.14% CSU BAKERSFIELD 0.13% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.09% IONA 0.09% FRESNO STATE 0.07% GREEN BAY 0.06% STONY BROOK 0.05% CHATTANOOGA 0.03% UNC ASHEVILLE 0.02% MIDDLE TENNESSEE 0.02% WEBER STATE 0.01% BUFFALO 0.00% FLORIDA GULF COAST 0.00% AUSTIN PEAY 0.00% HOLY CROSS 0.00% HAMPTON

27.77% KANSAS 22.85% MICHIGAN STATE *16.37% NORTH CAROLINA 15.89% VIRGINIA 10.80% WEST VIRGINIA *10.76% VILLANOVA 10.67% OKLAHOMA 8.59% OREGON 8.41% KENTUCKY 8.03% TEXAS A&M 6.57% PURDUE 5.20% DUKE 4.73% MIAMI (FL) 4.52% INDIANA 3.68% XAVIER 3.55% ARIZONA 2.96% BAYLOR 2.90% MARYLAND 2.49% CALIFORNIA 2.38% IOWA 2.27% WICHITA ST 2.15% IOWA STATE 1.98% TEXAS 1.78% UTAH 1.68% CONNECTICUT 1.36% CINCINNATI 1.33% GONZAGA 1.05% VCU 1.04% SETON HALL 0.68% PITTSBURGH 0.67% WISCONSIN 0.56% BUTLER 0.48% SYRACUSE 0.47% SAINT JOSEPH'S 0.45% NOTRE DAME 0.41% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 0.41% MICHIGAN 0.36% YALE 0.25% OREGON STATE 0.25% USC 0.23% TEXAS TECH 0.20% COLORADO 0.17% PROVIDENCE 0.17% DAYTON 0.11% NORTHERN IOWA 0.11% HAWAII 0.07% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 0.04% UNC WILMINGTON 0.03% TEMPLE 0.03% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.02% CSU BAKERSFIELD 0.01% IONA 0.01% FRESNO STATE 0.01% STONY BROOK 0.01% GREEN BAY 0.01% CHATTANOOGA 0.00% UNC ASHEVILLE 0.00% BUFFALO 0.00% MIDDLE TENNESSEE 0.00% WEBER STATE 0.00% FLORIDA GULF COAST 0.00% AUSTIN PEAY 0.00% HAMPTON 0.00% HOLY CROSS

16.27% KANSAS 14.45% MICHIGAN STATE 9.65% NORTH CAROLINA 9.34% VIRGINIA 6.08% WEST VIRGINIA *5.09% VILLANOVA 4.74% OKLAHOMA 4.56% KENTUCKY 3.49% OREGON 3.41% PURDUE 3.30% TEXAS A&M 2.17% INDIANA 1.99% DUKE 1.87% MIAMI (FL) 1.55% XAVIER 1.46% ARIZONA 1.03% BAYLOR 1.00% MARYLAND 0.88% IOWA STATE 0.86% WICHITA ST 0.85% CALIFORNIA 0.82% IOWA 0.68% UTAH 0.60% TEXAS 0.56% CONNECTICUT 0.51% GONZAGA 0.40% CINCINNATI 0.38% SETON HALL 0.28% VCU 0.22% PITTSBURGH 0.21% WISCONSIN 0.19% BUTLER 0.15% SYRACUSE 0.13% NOTRE DAME 0.13% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 0.12% MICHIGAN 0.11% SAINT JOSEPH'S 0.08% YALE 0.07% USC 0.07% TEXAS TECH 0.05% OREGON STATE 0.04% PROVIDENCE 0.04% COLORADO 0.04% DAYTON 0.02% HAWAII 0.02% NORTHERN IOWA 0.01% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 0.01% UNC WILMINGTON 0.00% TEMPLE 0.00% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% IONA 0.00% CSU BAKERSFIELD 0.00% FRESNO STATE 0.00% STONY BROOK 0.00% CHATTANOOGA 0.00% GREEN BAY 0.00% UNC ASHEVILLE 0.00% MIDDLE TENNESSEE 0.00% BUFFALO 0.00% WEBER STATE 0.00% FLORIDA GULF COAST 0.00% AUSTIN PEAY 0.00% HAMPTON 0.00% HOLY CROSS

Second Round	Sweet Sixteen	Elite Eight	Final Four	Finals	Champion
98.83% VIRGINIA 98.60% KANSAS 98.18% OREGON 96.72% NORTH CAROLINA 95.39% MICHIGAN STATE 90.60% VILLANOVA 88.74% XAVIER 88.71% MIAMI (FL) 88.68% KENTUCKY 88.16% TEXAS A&M 87.35% OKLAHOMA 86.34% INDIANA 80.00% PURDUE 79.82% DUKE 78.93% IOWA STATE 78.26% UTAH 78.00% MARYLAND 75.89% IOWA 75.15% WEST VIRGINIA 70.54% CALIFORNIA 68.85% TEXAS 65.23% BAYLOR 64.19% CONNECTICUT 59.55% VCU 57.44% CINCINNATI 56.54% SYRACUSE 55.78% BUTLER 53.77% ARIZONA 52.24% USC 51.87% GONZAGA 50.68% NOTRE DAME 50.14% PITTSBURGH 49.86% WISCONSIN 49.32% MICHIGAN 48.13% SETON HALL 47.76% PROVIDENCE 46.23% WICHITA ST 44.22% TEXAS TECH 43.46% DAYTON 42.56% SAINT JOSEPH'S 40.45% OREGON STATE 35.81% COLORADO 34.77% YALE 31.15% NORTHERN IOWA 29.46% HAWAII 24.85% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 24.11% TEMPLE 22.00% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 21.74% FRESNO STATE 21.07% IONA 20.18% UNC WILMINGTON 20.00% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 13.66% CHATTANOOGA 12.65% CSU BAKERSFIELD 11.84% GREEN BAY 11.32% STONY BROOK 11.29% BUFFALO 11.26% WEBER STATE 9.40% UNC ASHEVILLE 4.61% MIDDLE TENNESSEE 3.28% FLORIDA GULF COAST 1.82% HOLY CROSS 1.40% AUSTIN PEAY 1.17% HAMPTON	78.70% MICHIGAN STATE 78.38% NORTH CAROLINA 77.17% KANSAS 76.18% VIRGINIA 63.98% OREGON 63.12% OKLAHOMA 62.28% VILLANOVA 58.84% TEXAS A&M 57.36% WEST VIRGINIA 54.04% KENTUCKY 53.84% XAVIER 53.16% PURDUE 47.12% DUKE 44.39% MIAMI (FL) 44.11% MARYLAND 41.71% INDIANA 39.69% UTAH 39.27% CALIFORNIA 35.74% IOWA STATE 34.15% BAYLOR 31.05% IOWA 30.10% ARIZONA 30.01% TEXAS 29.21% GONZAGA 26.25% SETON HALL 24.23% WICHITA ST 22.31% CINCINNATI 22.20% PITTSBURGH 22.01% WISCONSIN 21.68% VCU 16.89% CONNECTICUT 15.27% NOTRE DAME 14.59% MICHIGAN 14.32% BUTLER 13.63% SAINT JOSEPH'S 13.13% YALE 12.78% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 12.49% SYRACUSE 11.50% OREGON STATE 11.39% USC 10.47% HAWAII 9.69% PROVIDENCE 9.42% TEXAS TECH 8.36% NORTHERN IOWA 7.76% DAYTON 7.08% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 6.16% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 5.82% COLORADO 5.59% UNC WILMINGTON 4.85% FRESNO STATE 4.59% TEMPLE 4.02% IONA 3.70% CSU BAKERSFIELD 2.79% GREEN BAY 2.24% STONY BROOK 2.08% UNC ASHEVILLE 2.01% CHATTANOOGA 1.95% WEBER STATE 1.28% BUFFALO 1.05% MIDDLE TENNESSEE 0.55% FLORIDA GULF COAST 0.12% AUSTIN PEAY 0.08% HOLY CROSS 0.08% HAMPTON	59.60% MICHIGAN STATE 58.95% KANSAS 49.02% VIRGINIA 46.38% NORTH CAROLINA 39.71% WEST VIRGINIA 37.98% OKLAHOMA 37.05% OREGON 36.40% VILLANOVA 32.57% TEXAS A&M 28.15% KENTUCKY 26.30% PURDUE 25.46% XAVIER 24.91% DUKE 21.71% MIAMI (FL) 19.22% INDIANA 16.76% BAYLOR 15.22% ARIZONA 14.55% MARYLAND 13.93% IOWA 13.89% IOWA STATE 13.31% TEXAS 13.16% UTAH 12.78% CALIFORNIA 11.37% WICHITA ST 10.23% CINCINNATI 9.74% GONZAGA 8.93% VCU 8.93% CONNECTICUT 8.34% SETON HALL 8.31% PITTSBURGH 8.21% WISCONSIN * 6.46% NOTRE DAME 6.08% MICHIGAN 5.55% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 5.54% BUTLER * 5.46% SYRACUSE 5.28% SAINT JOSEPH'S 4.49% YALE 3.74% OREGON STATE 3.16% TEXAS TECH 3.13% USC 2.90% DAYTON 2.49% PROVIDENCE 2.27% NORTHERN IOWA 2.26% COLORADO 1.77% HAWAII 1.48% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 1.27% UNC WILMINGTON 0.94% TEMPLE 0.75% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.74% CSU BAKERSFIELD 0.61% FRESNO STATE 0.60% IONA 0.46% GREEN BAY 0.32% STONY BROOK 0.29% UNC ASHEVILLE 0.27% CHATTANOOGA 0.22% WEBER STATE 0.18% MIDDLE TENNESSEE 0.15% BUFFALO 0.03% FLORIDA GULF COAST 0.01% AUSTIN PEAY 0.00% HAMPTON 0.00% HOLY CROSS	39.60% KANSAS 36.92% MICHIGAN STATE 30.15% NORTH CAROLINA 27.68% VIRGINIA 22.48% OKLAHOMA 20.97% WEST VIRGINIA 19.68% OREGON 18.19% TEXAS A&M 18.08% VILLANOVA 17.02% KENTUCKY 13.06% PURDUE 12.61% DUKE 10.45% INDIANA 9.81% XAVIER 9.15% MIAMI (FL) 7.86% BAYLOR 6.65% ARIZONA 6.25% MARYLAND 5.91% TEXAS 5.45% IOWA STATE 5.43% CALIFORNIA 5.15% IOWA 4.86% UTAH 4.58% WICHITA ST 4.21% CINCINNATI 3.72% CONNECTICUT 3.61% GONZAGA 3.56% VCU 2.95% SETON HALL 2.41% PITTSBURGH 2.37% WISCONSIN 1.81% SAINT JOSEPH'S 1.77% BUTLER 1.73% NOTRE DAME 1.62% SYRACUSE 1.59% MICHIGAN 1.54% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 1.45% YALE 1.16% OREGON STATE 1.04% USC 0.86% TEXAS TECH 0.78% PROVIDENCE 0.71% DAYTON 0.65% COLORADO 0.61% NORTHERN IOWA 0.42% HAWAII 0.32% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 0.27% UNC WILMINGTON 0.15% TEMPLE 0.14% CSU BAKERSFIELD 0.13% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.09% IONA 0.09% FRESNO STATE 0.07% GREEN BAY 0.06% STONY BROOK 0.05% CHATTANOOGA 0.03% UNC ASHEVILLE 0.02% MIDDLE TENNESSEE 0.02% WEBER STATE 0.01% BUFFALO 0.00% FLORIDA GULF COAST 0.00% AUSTIN PEAY 0.00% HOLY CROSS 0.00% HAMPTON	27.77% KANSAS 22.85% MICHIGAN STATE 16.37% NORTH CAROLINA 15.89% VIRGINIA 10.80% WEST VIRGINIA 10.76% VILLANOVA 10.67% OKLAHOMA 8.59% OREGON 8.41% KENTUCKY 8.03% TEXAS A&M 6.57% PURDUE 5.20% DUKE 4.73% MIAMI (FL) 4.52% INDIANA 3.68% XAVIER 3.55% ARIZONA 2.96% BAYLOR 2.90% MARYLAND 2.49% CALIFORNIA 2.38% IOWA 2.27% WICHITA ST 2.15% IOWA STATE 1.98% TEXAS 1.78% UTAH 1.68% CONNECTICUT 1.36% CINCINNATI 1.33% GONZAGA 1.05% VCU 1.04% SETON HALL 0.68% PITTSBURGH 0.67% WISCONSIN 0.56% BUTLER 0.48% SYRACUSE 0.47% SAINT JOSEPH'S 0.45% NOTRE DAME 0.41% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 0.41% MICHIGAN 0.36% YALE 0.25% OREGON STATE 0.25% USC 0.23% TEXAS TECH 0.20% COLORADO 0.17% PROVIDENCE 0.17% DAYTON 0.11% NORTHERN IOWA 0.11% HAWAII 0.07% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 0.04% UNC WILMINGTON 0.03% TEMPLE 0.03% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.02% CSU BAKERSFIELD 0.01% IONA 0.01% FRESNO STATE 0.01% STONY BROOK 0.01% GREEN BAY 0.01% CHATTANOOGA 0.00% UNC ASHEVILLE 0.00% BUFFALO 0.00% MIDDLE TENNESSEE 0.00% WEBER STATE 0.00% FLORIDA GULF COAST 0.00% AUSTIN PEAY 0.00% HAMPTON 0.00% HOLY CROSS	16.27% KANSAS 14.45% MICHIGAN STATE 9.65% NORTH CAROLINA 9.34% VIRGINIA 6.08% WEST VIRGINIA *5.09% VILLANOVA 4.74% OKLAHOMA 4.56% KENTUCKY 3.49% OREGON 3.41% PURDUE 3.30% TEXAS A&M 2.17% INDIANA 1.99% DUKE 1.87% MIAMI (FL) 1.55% XAVIER 1.46% ARIZONA 1.03% BAYLOR 1.00% MARYLAND 0.88% IOWA STATE 0.86% WICHITA ST 0.85% CALIFORNIA 0.82% IOWA 0.68% UTAH 0.60% TEXAS 0.56% CONNECTICUT 0.51% GONZAGA 0.40% CINCINNATI 0.38% SETON HALL 0.28% VCU 0.22% PITTSBURGH 0.21% WISCONSIN 0.19% BUTLER 0.15% SYRACUSE 0.13% NOTRE DAME 0.13% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 0.12% MICHIGAN 0.11% SAINT JOSEPH'S 0.08% YALE 0.07% USC 0.07% TEXAS TECH 0.05% OREGON STATE 0.04% PROVIDENCE 0.04% COLORADO 0.04% DAYTON 0.02% HAWAII 0.02% NORTHERN IOWA 0.01% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 0.01% UNC WILMINGTON 0.00% TEMPLE 0.00% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% IONA 0.00% CSU BAKERSFIELD 0.00% FRESNO STATE 0.00% STONY BROOK 0.00% CHATTANOOGA 0.00% GREEN BAY 0.00% UNC ASHEVILLE 0.00% MIDDLE TENNESSEE 0.00% BUFFALO 0.00% WEBER STATE 0.00% FLORIDA GULF COAST 0.00% AUSTIN PEAY 0.00% HAMPTON 0.00% HOLY CROSS

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 14

First Round Second Round Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion

*72.13% FLORIDA GULF COAST 59.10% SOUTHERN *58.42% MICHIGAN *51.28% WICHITA ST 48.72% VANDERBILT 41.58% TULSA *40.90% HOLY CROSS 27.87% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

*98.82% VIRGINIA *98.59% KANSAS *97.44% OREGON *97.36% NORTH CAROLINA 95.35% MICHIGAN STATE *90.44% VILLANOVA *88.68% KENTUCKY *88.67% XAVIER *88.55% MIAMI (FL) *88.02% TEXAS A&M *87.45% OKLAHOMA *86.32% INDIANA 79.95% PURDUE *79.79% DUKE *78.91% IOWA STATE *78.58% UTAH *77.79% MARYLAND *75.71% IOWA 75.10% WEST VIRGINIA 70.69% CALIFORNIA 68.86% TEXAS 65.17% BAYLOR *64.38% CONNECTICUT *59.78% VCU 57.41% CINCINNATI *56.05% SYRACUSE *55.60% BUTLER 54.44% ARIZONA *54.05% NOTRE DAME 52.51% USC *52.28% GONZAGA *50.01% WISCONSIN 49.99% PITTSBURGH 47.72% SETON HALL *47.49% PROVIDENCE 44.40% TEXAS TECH 43.95% DAYTON *42.59% SAINT JOSEPH'S 40.22% OREGON STATE 35.62% COLORADO *34.83% YALE *31.14% NORTHERN IOWA *29.31% HAWAII 28.88% MICHIGAN *24.90% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 24.29% TEMPLE *23.68% WICHITA ST 22.21% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 21.88% VANDERBILT 21.42% FRESNO STATE 21.09% IONA 20.21% UNC WILMINGTON *20.05% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 17.07% TULSA 13.68% CHATTANOOGA 12.55% CSU BAKERSFIELD 11.98% GREEN BAY 11.45% BUFFALO 11.33% WEBER STATE 11.32% STONY BROOK 9.56% UNC ASHEVILLE * 4.65% MIDDLE TENNESSEE 2.42% FLORIDA GULF COAST 1.82% SOUTHERN 1.41% AUSTIN PEAY 1.18% HAMPTON 0.73% HOLY CROSS 0.22% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

*78.89% NORTH CAROLINA 78.60% MICHIGAN STATE *77.00% KANSAS *76.15% VIRGINIA *63.33% OREGON *63.02% OKLAHOMA *62.06% VILLANOVA *58.66% TEXAS A&M 58.12% WEST VIRGINIA 54.00% KENTUCKY 53.74% XAVIER 53.09% PURDUE *47.03% DUKE *44.36% MIAMI (FL) *43.91% MARYLAND *41.75% INDIANA 39.94% UTAH 39.44% CALIFORNIA *35.77% IOWA STATE 34.18% BAYLOR 31.13% IOWA 30.61% ARIZONA 30.11% TEXAS *29.46% GONZAGA 25.87% SETON HALL 22.62% CINCINNATI *22.15% WISCONSIN 22.14% PITTSBURGH 21.91% VCU 17.08% CONNECTICUT *16.23% NOTRE DAME 14.26% BUTLER 13.89% SAINT JOSEPH'S 13.20% YALE 13.19% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 12.46% WICHITA ST *12.36% SYRACUSE 11.45% OREGON STATE 11.28% USC 11.25% VANDERBILT 10.40% HAWAII 9.52% TEXAS TECH 9.40% PROVIDENCE 8.54% MICHIGAN 8.39% NORTHERN IOWA 7.97% DAYTON 7.10% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 6.25% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 5.81% COLORADO 5.59% UNC WILMINGTON 4.73% FRESNO STATE 4.69% TEMPLE 4.04% IONA 3.92% TULSA 3.63% CSU BAKERSFIELD 2.84% GREEN BAY 2.24% STONY BROOK 2.13% UNC ASHEVILLE 2.01% CHATTANOOGA 1.97% WEBER STATE 1.32% BUFFALO 1.06% MIDDLE TENNESSEE 0.41% FLORIDA GULF COAST 0.13% SOUTHERN 0.12% AUSTIN PEAY 0.08% HAMPTON 0.03% HOLY CROSS 0.01% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

59.47% MICHIGAN STATE *58.82% KANSAS *48.91% VIRGINIA *46.65% NORTH CAROLINA 40.30% WEST VIRGINIA *37.96% OKLAHOMA *36.80% OREGON *36.27% VILLANOVA 32.39% TEXAS A&M 28.04% KENTUCKY 26.34% PURDUE 25.40% XAVIER 24.78% DUKE 21.71% MIAMI (FL) 19.18% INDIANA 16.74% BAYLOR 15.54% ARIZONA 14.47% MARYLAND 14.01% IOWA 13.96% IOWA STATE 13.33% TEXAS 13.30% UTAH 12.86% CALIFORNIA 10.46% CINCINNATI 9.88% GONZAGA 9.11% VCU 9.07% CONNECTICUT 8.29% WISCONSIN 8.28% PITTSBURGH 8.19% SETON HALL * 6.87% NOTRE DAME 5.87% WICHITA ST 5.75% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 5.50% BUTLER 5.43% SAINT JOSEPH'S * 5.38% SYRACUSE 5.16% VANDERBILT 4.51% YALE 3.74% OREGON STATE 3.57% MICHIGAN 3.19% TEXAS TECH 3.11% USC 3.01% DAYTON 2.40% PROVIDENCE 2.28% NORTHERN IOWA 2.26% COLORADO 1.75% HAWAII 1.49% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 1.33% TULSA 1.27% UNC WILMINGTON 0.97% TEMPLE 0.77% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.72% CSU BAKERSFIELD 0.61% IONA 0.59% FRESNO STATE 0.47% GREEN BAY 0.32% STONY BROOK 0.30% UNC ASHEVILLE 0.27% CHATTANOOGA 0.23% WEBER STATE 0.18% MIDDLE TENNESSEE 0.16% BUFFALO 0.03% FLORIDA GULF COAST 0.01% AUSTIN PEAY 0.01% SOUTHERN 0.00% HAMPTON 0.00% HOLY CROSS 0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

39.60% KANSAS 36.87% MICHIGAN STATE *30.30% NORTH CAROLINA 27.57% VIRGINIA *22.47% OKLAHOMA 21.26% WEST VIRGINIA 19.60% OREGON 18.06% TEXAS A&M *17.96% VILLANOVA 16.94% KENTUCKY 13.08% PURDUE 12.53% DUKE 10.44% INDIANA 9.75% XAVIER 9.12% MIAMI (FL) 7.85% BAYLOR 6.81% ARIZONA 6.24% MARYLAND 5.92% TEXAS 5.49% CALIFORNIA 5.48% IOWA STATE 5.19% IOWA 4.93% UTAH 4.33% CINCINNATI 3.82% CONNECTICUT 3.69% GONZAGA 3.66% VCU 2.89% SETON HALL 2.39% WISCONSIN 2.39% PITTSBURGH 2.37% WICHITA ST 2.02% VANDERBILT 1.88% SAINT JOSEPH'S 1.83% NOTRE DAME 1.75% BUTLER * 1.60% SYRACUSE 1.59% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 1.46% YALE 1.16% OREGON STATE 1.04% USC 0.93% MICHIGAN 0.87% TEXAS TECH 0.75% PROVIDENCE 0.75% DAYTON 0.65% COLORADO 0.61% NORTHERN IOWA 0.41% HAWAII 0.32% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 0.27% UNC WILMINGTON 0.27% TULSA 0.16% TEMPLE 0.14% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.13% CSU BAKERSFIELD 0.09% IONA 0.08% FRESNO STATE 0.07% GREEN BAY 0.06% STONY BROOK 0.05% CHATTANOOGA 0.03% UNC ASHEVILLE 0.02% MIDDLE TENNESSEE 0.02% WEBER STATE 0.01% BUFFALO 0.00% FLORIDA GULF COAST 0.00% AUSTIN PEAY 0.00% SOUTHERN 0.00% HAMPTON 0.00% HOLY CROSS 0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

27.79% KANSAS 22.79% MICHIGAN STATE *16.46% NORTH CAROLINA 15.78% VIRGINIA 10.97% WEST VIRGINIA 10.68% OKLAHOMA *10.67% VILLANOVA 8.59% OREGON 8.39% KENTUCKY 7.97% TEXAS A&M 6.58% PURDUE 5.16% DUKE 4.70% MIAMI (FL) 4.53% INDIANA 3.65% XAVIER 3.64% ARIZONA 2.96% BAYLOR 2.89% MARYLAND 2.52% CALIFORNIA 2.39% IOWA 2.16% IOWA STATE 1.98% TEXAS 1.81% UTAH 1.73% CONNECTICUT 1.41% CINCINNATI 1.37% GONZAGA 1.18% WICHITA ST 1.09% VCU 1.01% SETON HALL 0.98% VANDERBILT 0.67% WISCONSIN 0.67% PITTSBURGH 0.55% BUTLER 0.50% SAINT JOSEPH'S 0.48% NOTRE DAME 0.47% SYRACUSE 0.43% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 0.36% YALE 0.26% OREGON STATE 0.25% USC 0.24% MICHIGAN 0.23% TEXAS TECH 0.21% COLORADO 0.18% DAYTON 0.17% PROVIDENCE 0.11% NORTHERN IOWA 0.11% HAWAII 0.07% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 0.05% TULSA 0.04% UNC WILMINGTON 0.03% TEMPLE 0.03% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.02% CSU BAKERSFIELD 0.01% IONA 0.01% FRESNO STATE 0.01% GREEN BAY 0.01% STONY BROOK 0.01% CHATTANOOGA 0.00% UNC ASHEVILLE 0.00% BUFFALO 0.00% MIDDLE TENNESSEE 0.00% WEBER STATE 0.00% FLORIDA GULF COAST 0.00% AUSTIN PEAY 0.00% SOUTHERN 0.00% HAMPTON 0.00% HOLY CROSS 0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

16.29% KANSAS 14.41% MICHIGAN STATE 9.70% NORTH CAROLINA 9.27% VIRGINIA 6.17% WEST VIRGINIA *5.04% VILLANOVA 4.75% OKLAHOMA 4.55% KENTUCKY 3.50% OREGON 3.41% PURDUE 3.27% TEXAS A&M 2.18% INDIANA 1.97% DUKE 1.86% MIAMI (FL) 1.53% XAVIER 1.50% ARIZONA 1.03% BAYLOR 1.00% MARYLAND 0.89% IOWA STATE 0.86% CALIFORNIA 0.82% IOWA 0.69% UTAH 0.61% TEXAS 0.58% CONNECTICUT 0.53% GONZAGA 0.44% WICHITA ST 0.42% CINCINNATI 0.37% SETON HALL 0.36% VANDERBILT 0.29% VCU 0.22% WISCONSIN 0.22% PITTSBURGH 0.18% BUTLER 0.14% SYRACUSE 0.14% NOTRE DAME 0.13% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 0.12% SAINT JOSEPH'S 0.08% YALE 0.07% MICHIGAN 0.07% USC 0.07% TEXAS TECH 0.05% OREGON STATE 0.05% DAYTON 0.04% COLORADO 0.04% PROVIDENCE 0.02% HAWAII 0.02% NORTHERN IOWA 0.01% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 0.01% TULSA 0.01% UNC WILMINGTON 0.00% TEMPLE 0.00% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% IONA 0.00% CSU BAKERSFIELD 0.00% FRESNO STATE 0.00% STONY BROOK 0.00% CHATTANOOGA 0.00% GREEN BAY 0.00% UNC ASHEVILLE 0.00% MIDDLE TENNESSEE 0.00% BUFFALO 0.00% WEBER STATE 0.00% FLORIDA GULF COAST 0.00% AUSTIN PEAY 0.00% SOUTHERN 0.00% HAMPTON 0.00% HOLY CROSS 0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

First Round	Second Round	Sweet Sixteen	Elite Eight	Final Four	Finals	Champion
72.13% FLORIDA GULF COAST 59.10% SOUTHERN 58.42% MICHIGAN 51.28% WICHITA ST 48.72% VANDERBILT 41.58% TULSA 40.90% HOLY CROSS 27.87% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON	98.82% VIRGINIA 98.59% KANSAS 97.44% OREGON 97.36% NORTH CAROLINA 95.35% MICHIGAN STATE 90.44% VILLANOVA 88.68% KENTUCKY 88.67% XAVIER 88.55% MIAMI (FL) 88.02% TEXAS A&M 87.45% OKLAHOMA 86.32% INDIANA 79.95% PURDUE 79.79% DUKE 78.91% IOWA STATE 78.58% UTAH 77.79% MARYLAND 75.71% IOWA 75.10% WEST VIRGINIA 70.69% CALIFORNIA 68.86% TEXAS 65.17% BAYLOR 64.38% CONNECTICUT 59.78% VCU 57.41% CINCINNATI 56.05% SYRACUSE 55.60% BUTLER 54.44% ARIZONA 54.05% NOTRE DAME 52.51% USC 52.28% GONZAGA 50.01% WISCONSIN 49.99% PITTSBURGH 47.72% SETON HALL 47.49% PROVIDENCE 44.40% TEXAS TECH 43.95% DAYTON 42.59% SAINT JOSEPH'S 40.22% OREGON STATE 35.62% COLORADO 34.83% YALE 31.14% NORTHERN IOWA 29.31% HAWAII 28.88% MICHIGAN 24.90% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 24.29% TEMPLE 23.68% WICHITA ST 22.21% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 21.88% VANDERBILT 21.42% FRESNO STATE 21.09% IONA 20.21% UNC WILMINGTON 20.05% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 17.07% TULSA 13.68% CHATTANOOGA 12.55% CSU BAKERSFIELD 11.98% GREEN BAY 11.45% BUFFALO 11.33% WEBER STATE 11.32% STONY BROOK 9.56% UNC ASHEVILLE 4.65% MIDDLE TENNESSEE 2.42% FLORIDA GULF COAST 1.82% SOUTHERN 1.41% AUSTIN PEAY 1.18% HAMPTON 0.73% HOLY CROSS 0.22% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON	78.89% NORTH CAROLINA 78.60% MICHIGAN STATE 77.00% KANSAS 76.15% VIRGINIA 63.33% OREGON 63.02% OKLAHOMA 62.06% VILLANOVA 58.66% TEXAS A&M 58.12% WEST VIRGINIA 54.00% KENTUCKY 53.74% XAVIER 53.09% PURDUE 47.03% DUKE 44.36% MIAMI (FL) 43.91% MARYLAND 41.75% INDIANA 39.94% UTAH 39.44% CALIFORNIA 35.77% IOWA STATE 34.18% BAYLOR 31.13% IOWA 30.61% ARIZONA 30.11% TEXAS 29.46% GONZAGA 25.87% SETON HALL 22.62% CINCINNATI 22.15% WISCONSIN 22.14% PITTSBURGH 21.91% VCU 17.08% CONNECTICUT 16.23% NOTRE DAME 14.26% BUTLER 13.89% SAINT JOSEPH'S 13.20% YALE 13.19% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 12.46% WICHITA ST 12.36% SYRACUSE 11.45% OREGON STATE 11.28% USC 11.25% VANDERBILT 10.40% HAWAII 9.52% TEXAS TECH 9.40% PROVIDENCE 8.54% MICHIGAN 8.39% NORTHERN IOWA 7.97% DAYTON 7.10% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 6.25% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 5.81% COLORADO 5.59% UNC WILMINGTON 4.73% FRESNO STATE 4.69% TEMPLE 4.04% IONA 3.92% TULSA 3.63% CSU BAKERSFIELD 2.84% GREEN BAY 2.24% STONY BROOK 2.13% UNC ASHEVILLE 2.01% CHATTANOOGA 1.97% WEBER STATE 1.32% BUFFALO 1.06% MIDDLE TENNESSEE 0.41% FLORIDA GULF COAST 0.13% SOUTHERN 0.12% AUSTIN PEAY 0.08% HAMPTON 0.03% HOLY CROSS 0.01% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON	59.47% MICHIGAN STATE 58.82% KANSAS 48.91% VIRGINIA 46.65% NORTH CAROLINA 40.30% WEST VIRGINIA 37.96% OKLAHOMA 36.80% OREGON 36.27% VILLANOVA 32.39% TEXAS A&M 28.04% KENTUCKY 26.34% PURDUE 25.40% XAVIER 24.78% DUKE 21.71% MIAMI (FL) 19.18% INDIANA 16.74% BAYLOR 15.54% ARIZONA 14.47% MARYLAND 14.01% IOWA 13.96% IOWA STATE 13.33% TEXAS 13.30% UTAH 12.86% CALIFORNIA 10.46% CINCINNATI 9.88% GONZAGA 9.11% VCU 9.07% CONNECTICUT 8.29% WISCONSIN 8.28% PITTSBURGH 8.19% SETON HALL * 6.87% NOTRE DAME 5.87% WICHITA ST 5.75% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 5.50% BUTLER 5.43% SAINT JOSEPH'S * 5.38% SYRACUSE 5.16% VANDERBILT 4.51% YALE 3.74% OREGON STATE 3.57% MICHIGAN 3.19% TEXAS TECH 3.11% USC 3.01% DAYTON 2.40% PROVIDENCE 2.28% NORTHERN IOWA 2.26% COLORADO 1.75% HAWAII 1.49% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 1.33% TULSA 1.27% UNC WILMINGTON 0.97% TEMPLE 0.77% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.72% CSU BAKERSFIELD 0.61% IONA 0.59% FRESNO STATE 0.47% GREEN BAY 0.32% STONY BROOK 0.30% UNC ASHEVILLE 0.27% CHATTANOOGA 0.23% WEBER STATE 0.18% MIDDLE TENNESSEE 0.16% BUFFALO 0.03% FLORIDA GULF COAST 0.01% AUSTIN PEAY 0.01% SOUTHERN 0.00% HAMPTON 0.00% HOLY CROSS 0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON	39.60% KANSAS 36.87% MICHIGAN STATE 30.30% NORTH CAROLINA 27.57% VIRGINIA 22.47% OKLAHOMA 21.26% WEST VIRGINIA 19.60% OREGON 18.06% TEXAS A&M 17.96% VILLANOVA 16.94% KENTUCKY 13.08% PURDUE 12.53% DUKE 10.44% INDIANA 9.75% XAVIER 9.12% MIAMI (FL) 7.85% BAYLOR 6.81% ARIZONA 6.24% MARYLAND 5.92% TEXAS 5.49% CALIFORNIA 5.48% IOWA STATE 5.19% IOWA 4.93% UTAH 4.33% CINCINNATI 3.82% CONNECTICUT 3.69% GONZAGA 3.66% VCU 2.89% SETON HALL 2.39% WISCONSIN 2.39% PITTSBURGH 2.37% WICHITA ST 2.02% VANDERBILT 1.88% SAINT JOSEPH'S 1.83% NOTRE DAME 1.75% BUTLER 1.60% SYRACUSE 1.59% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 1.46% YALE 1.16% OREGON STATE 1.04% USC 0.93% MICHIGAN 0.87% TEXAS TECH 0.75% PROVIDENCE 0.75% DAYTON 0.65% COLORADO 0.61% NORTHERN IOWA 0.41% HAWAII 0.32% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 0.27% UNC WILMINGTON 0.27% TULSA 0.16% TEMPLE 0.14% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.13% CSU BAKERSFIELD 0.09% IONA 0.08% FRESNO STATE 0.07% GREEN BAY 0.06% STONY BROOK 0.05% CHATTANOOGA 0.03% UNC ASHEVILLE 0.02% MIDDLE TENNESSEE 0.02% WEBER STATE 0.01% BUFFALO 0.00% FLORIDA GULF COAST 0.00% AUSTIN PEAY 0.00% SOUTHERN 0.00% HAMPTON 0.00% HOLY CROSS 0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON	27.79% KANSAS 22.79% MICHIGAN STATE 16.46% NORTH CAROLINA 15.78% VIRGINIA 10.97% WEST VIRGINIA 10.68% OKLAHOMA 10.67% VILLANOVA 8.59% OREGON 8.39% KENTUCKY 7.97% TEXAS A&M 6.58% PURDUE 5.16% DUKE 4.70% MIAMI (FL) 4.53% INDIANA 3.65% XAVIER 3.64% ARIZONA 2.96% BAYLOR 2.89% MARYLAND 2.52% CALIFORNIA 2.39% IOWA 2.16% IOWA STATE 1.98% TEXAS 1.81% UTAH 1.73% CONNECTICUT 1.41% CINCINNATI 1.37% GONZAGA 1.18% WICHITA ST 1.09% VCU 1.01% SETON HALL 0.98% VANDERBILT 0.67% WISCONSIN 0.67% PITTSBURGH 0.55% BUTLER 0.50% SAINT JOSEPH'S 0.48% NOTRE DAME 0.47% SYRACUSE 0.43% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 0.36% YALE 0.26% OREGON STATE 0.25% USC 0.24% MICHIGAN 0.23% TEXAS TECH 0.21% COLORADO 0.18% DAYTON 0.17% PROVIDENCE 0.11% NORTHERN IOWA 0.11% HAWAII 0.07% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 0.05% TULSA 0.04% UNC WILMINGTON 0.03% TEMPLE 0.03% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.02% CSU BAKERSFIELD 0.01% IONA 0.01% FRESNO STATE 0.01% GREEN BAY 0.01% STONY BROOK 0.01% CHATTANOOGA 0.00% UNC ASHEVILLE 0.00% BUFFALO 0.00% MIDDLE TENNESSEE 0.00% WEBER STATE 0.00% FLORIDA GULF COAST 0.00% AUSTIN PEAY 0.00% SOUTHERN 0.00% HAMPTON 0.00% HOLY CROSS 0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON	16.29% KANSAS 14.41% MICHIGAN STATE 9.70% NORTH CAROLINA 9.27% VIRGINIA 6.17% WEST VIRGINIA *5.04% VILLANOVA 4.75% OKLAHOMA 4.55% KENTUCKY 3.50% OREGON 3.41% PURDUE 3.27% TEXAS A&M 2.18% INDIANA 1.97% DUKE 1.86% MIAMI (FL) 1.53% XAVIER 1.50% ARIZONA 1.03% BAYLOR 1.00% MARYLAND 0.89% IOWA STATE 0.86% CALIFORNIA 0.82% IOWA 0.69% UTAH 0.61% TEXAS 0.58% CONNECTICUT 0.53% GONZAGA 0.44% WICHITA ST 0.42% CINCINNATI 0.37% SETON HALL 0.36% VANDERBILT 0.29% VCU 0.22% WISCONSIN 0.22% PITTSBURGH 0.18% BUTLER 0.14% SYRACUSE 0.14% NOTRE DAME 0.13% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN 0.12% SAINT JOSEPH'S 0.08% YALE 0.07% MICHIGAN 0.07% USC 0.07% TEXAS TECH 0.05% OREGON STATE 0.05% DAYTON 0.04% COLORADO 0.04% PROVIDENCE 0.02% HAWAII 0.02% NORTHERN IOWA 0.01% ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 0.01% TULSA 0.01% UNC WILMINGTON 0.00% TEMPLE 0.00% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% IONA 0.00% CSU BAKERSFIELD 0.00% FRESNO STATE 0.00% STONY BROOK 0.00% CHATTANOOGA 0.00% GREEN BAY 0.00% UNC ASHEVILLE 0.00% MIDDLE TENNESSEE 0.00% BUFFALO 0.00% WEBER STATE 0.00% FLORIDA GULF COAST 0.00% AUSTIN PEAY 0.00% SOUTHERN 0.00% HAMPTON 0.00% HOLY CROSS 0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

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