Biggest Surprise: South Carolina to Final Four (1.24%)

South Carolina's tournament run had about a 1-in-80 chance of happening. (Of course, with 68 teams, somebody is bound to have a 1-in-80 tournament!). Sometimes the runs come from playing well; other times they come from help. What happened here?

  1. In the first round, South Carolina was ranked as having a roughly 50-50 (47%, if being precise) chance against Marquette. Winning this matchup more than doubled their shot at the final four to about 2.6%. Other outcomes in the region (most notably, USC's upset of SMU, the biggest single upset of the tournament) also helped, increasing the odds to 3.54%.
  2. In the second round, they were significant underdogs to Duke (30% win likelihood). The upset more than tripled their shot at final four to 12.11%; other outcomes in the region had no significant impact.
  3. In the sweet 16, they were again underdogs, this time against Baylor (39% win likelihood). Winning this game increased their odds of making the final four to 30.74%.
  4. Finally, in the elite 8, they were underdogs to Florida but won.
This was an example of a team making its own luck, winning a 7-10 first round matchup and then upsetting the 2, 3, and 4 seeds in the region.

Number of Upsets

Are there more upsets in the NCAA tournament than if these were just regular season games? For this analysis, "upset" is defined by a team with less than 50% chance (as calculated below) winning its game (generally the same as the betting underdog) rather than based on committee seeding. (Counting by seeds, there would have been four fewer upsets than the numbers below report.)

  1. First Four: 1.8 predicted, 4 actual
  2. First Round: 7.0 predicted, 6 actual
  3. Second Round: 5.7 predicted, 7 actual
  4. Sweet Sixteen: 3.2 predicted, 3 actual
  5. Elite Eight: 1.3 predicted, 2 actual
  6. Final Four: 0.6 predicted, 0 actual
  7. Championship: 0.4 predicted, 1 actual
  8. Grand Total: 20.0 predicted, 23 actual
For this tournament, the number of upsets exceeded the expected number of upsets by 3, which translates to a 0.7-sigma result (75th percentile on a bell curve). For the last three tournaments combined, there were a total of 60 upsets, compared with an expected 59.9 upsets. The difference is 0.01 sigma, which falls at the 51st percentile.

Odds of Advancing to Round, April 2

Champion 
 56.53% GONZAGA
*43.47% NORTH CAROLINA

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 27

Finals Champion 
*75.79% GONZAGA
*61.68% NORTH CAROLINA
 38.32% OREGON
 24.21% SOUTH CAROLINA

 46.18% GONZAGA
*30.78% NORTH CAROLINA
 14.84% OREGON
  8.21% SOUTH CAROLINA

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 25

Final Four Finals Champion 
*81.14% GONZAGA
 69.26% FLORIDA
 62.03% KANSAS
*56.71% NORTH CAROLINA
 43.29% KENTUCKY
*37.97% OREGON
*30.74% SOUTH CAROLINA
 18.86% XAVIER

*51.14% GONZAGA
 33.78% FLORIDA
*32.39% NORTH CAROLINA
 31.21% KANSAS
 21.86% KENTUCKY
 14.54% OREGON
  9.44% SOUTH CAROLINA
  5.64% XAVIER

 30.09% GONZAGA
 17.38% FLORIDA
*16.95% NORTH CAROLINA
 15.54% KANSAS
 10.01% KENTUCKY
  5.55% OREGON
  3.03% SOUTH CAROLINA
  1.45% XAVIER

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 20

Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion 
*71.93% NORTH CAROLINA
*63.14% FLORIDA
 61.89% ARIZONA
 61.48% BAYLOR
*60.27% GONZAGA
*58.66% KENTUCKY
*56.07% KANSAS
 51.45% MICHIGAN
*48.55% OREGON
 43.93% PURDUE
 41.34% UCLA
 39.73% WEST VIRGINIA
*38.52% SOUTH CAROLINA
*38.11% XAVIER
 36.86% WISCONSIN
 28.07% BUTLER

*45.70% GONZAGA
*43.58% NORTH CAROLINA
 42.05% FLORIDA
 32.07% KANSAS
 28.89% KENTUCKY
 26.68% WEST VIRGINIA
 25.98% BAYLOR
 23.75% MICHIGAN
 22.46% PURDUE
*21.72% OREGON
 19.86% WISCONSIN
 19.40% ARIZONA
 16.91% UCLA
*12.11% SOUTH CAROLINA
 10.63% BUTLER
  8.23% XAVIER

*29.87% GONZAGA
*26.24% NORTH CAROLINA
 22.23% FLORIDA
 16.49% KANSAS
 15.37% KENTUCKY
 14.83% WEST VIRGINIA
 10.70% MICHIGAN
 10.57% BAYLOR
 10.21% PURDUE
  9.48% OREGON
  8.27% ARIZONA
  7.97% WISCONSIN
  7.53% UCLA
  3.98% BUTLER
  3.67% SOUTH CAROLINA
  2.59% XAVIER

 18.77% GONZAGA
*14.55% NORTH CAROLINA
 12.44% FLORIDA
  8.23% KANSAS
  7.83% WEST VIRGINIA
  7.45% KENTUCKY
  4.66% MICHIGAN
  4.58% BAYLOR
  4.49% PURDUE
  4.00% OREGON
  3.41% WISCONSIN
  3.29% ARIZONA
  3.02% UCLA
  1.33% BUTLER
  1.19% SOUTH CAROLINA
  0.75% XAVIER

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 18

Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion 
*85.32% GONZAGA
*80.71% NORTH CAROLINA
*76.66% BAYLOR
*71.01% KANSAS
 69.85% DUKE
*68.17% OREGON
 67.60% FLORIDA STATE
 67.56% VILLANOVA
*65.55% BUTLER
*64.13% WEST VIRGINIA
 56.25% LOUISVILLE
 52.65% SAINT MARY'S
*52.05% FLORIDA
 51.15% CINCINNATI
 50.81% WICHITA ST
*50.52% PURDUE
 49.48% IOWA STATE
*49.19% KENTUCKY
*48.85% UCLA
 47.95% VIRGINIA
*47.35% ARIZONA
*43.75% MICHIGAN
 35.87% NOTRE DAME
 34.45% MIDDLE TENNESSEE
*32.44% WISCONSIN
*32.40% XAVIER
 31.83% RHODE ISLAND
*30.15% SOUTH CAROLINA
 28.99% MICHIGAN STATE
 23.34% USC
 19.29% ARKANSAS
 14.68% NORTHWESTERN

*62.85% NORTH CAROLINA
*57.07% GONZAGA
 43.10% DUKE
 40.29% VILLANOVA
*39.07% KANSAS
 38.56% BAYLOR
 35.23% FLORIDA STATE
 34.88% LOUISVILLE
*31.51% OREGON
 30.51% WICHITA ST
*29.16% KENTUCKY
 28.88% SAINT MARY'S
 27.86% WEST VIRGINIA
 26.01% PURDUE
 25.23% IOWA STATE
 24.76% ARIZONA
*24.54% FLORIDA
 24.52% MICHIGAN
 21.66% VIRGINIA
 21.18% BUTLER
 20.91% CINCINNATI
 19.43% UCLA
 13.51% WISCONSIN
*12.70% SOUTH CAROLINA
*11.13% XAVIER
 11.04% NOTRE DAME
  9.70% MICHIGAN STATE
  9.09% RHODE ISLAND
  9.00% ARKANSAS
  6.97% MIDDLE TENNESSEE
  5.65% USC
  4.03% NORTHWESTERN

*42.33% GONZAGA
*39.54% NORTH CAROLINA
 26.50% VILLANOVA
 21.54% KANSAS
 20.28% DUKE
 19.26% LOUISVILLE
 17.61% WEST VIRGINIA
 15.95% BAYLOR
 15.90% WICHITA ST
*15.36% OREGON
 14.98% KENTUCKY
 14.14% FLORIDA
 13.12% PURDUE
 12.63% FLORIDA STATE
 12.60% IOWA STATE
 12.05% VIRGINIA
 12.02% MICHIGAN
 10.14% SAINT MARY'S
  9.04% CINCINNATI
  8.19% UCLA
  8.11% ARIZONA
  8.01% BUTLER
  6.55% WISCONSIN
  5.43% NOTRE DAME
* 3.54% SOUTH CAROLINA
  3.28% MICHIGAN STATE
  2.81% RHODE ISLAND
  2.68% ARKANSAS
  2.36% XAVIER
  1.67% MIDDLE TENNESSEE
  1.40% NORTHWESTERN
  0.98% USC

*27.05% GONZAGA
*24.85% NORTH CAROLINA
 15.23% VILLANOVA
 10.91% KANSAS
  9.87% LOUISVILLE
  9.75% DUKE
  9.14% WEST VIRGINIA
  8.62% WICHITA ST
  8.01% KENTUCKY
  6.95% FLORIDA
  6.90% OREGON
  6.78% BAYLOR
  6.04% PURDUE
  5.74% IOWA STATE
  5.69% VIRGINIA
  5.43% MICHIGAN
  5.27% FLORIDA STATE
  4.14% SAINT MARY'S
  4.05% CINCINNATI
  3.58% UCLA
  3.11% ARIZONA
  3.03% BUTLER
  2.64% WISCONSIN
  2.06% NOTRE DAME
  1.04% SOUTH CAROLINA
  0.99% MICHIGAN STATE
  0.80% ARKANSAS
  0.79% RHODE ISLAND
  0.60% XAVIER
  0.40% MIDDLE TENNESSEE
  0.35% NORTHWESTERN
  0.19% USC

 17.41% GONZAGA
*14.02% NORTH CAROLINA
  9.13% VILLANOVA
  5.20% KANSAS
  4.90% DUKE
  4.79% WEST VIRGINIA
  4.76% LOUISVILLE
  4.12% WICHITA ST
  3.76% KENTUCKY
  3.58% FLORIDA
  3.02% BAYLOR
  2.89% OREGON
  2.81% VIRGINIA
  2.60% PURDUE
  2.44% IOWA STATE
  2.29% MICHIGAN
  2.22% FLORIDA STATE
  1.71% SAINT MARY'S
  1.56% CINCINNATI
  1.34% UCLA
  1.21% ARIZONA
  1.12% WISCONSIN
  0.97% BUTLER
  0.79% NOTRE DAME
  0.32% SOUTH CAROLINA
  0.27% MICHIGAN STATE
  0.20% RHODE ISLAND
  0.20% ARKANSAS
  0.16% XAVIER
  0.09% NORTHWESTERN
  0.08% MIDDLE TENNESSEE
  0.04% USC

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 16

Second Round Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion 
*98.65% NORTH CAROLINA
*98.63% VILLANOVA
*98.16% GONZAGA
*97.69% KANSAS
*96.00% LOUISVILLE
*95.39% KENTUCKY
*93.18% DUKE
*91.62% ARIZONA
*91.20% OREGON
*90.41% UCLA
*89.16% FLORIDA STATE
*88.33% WEST VIRGINIA
*86.93% BAYLOR
*86.48% FLORIDA
*85.46% VIRGINIA
*84.93% BUTLER
 80.64% SMU
*79.03% PURDUE
*76.91% WICHITA ST
*75.73% IOWA STATE
*73.03% NOTRE DAME
*69.67% SAINT MARY'S
*67.52% WISCONSIN
 61.21% MINNESOTA
*60.64% CINCINNATI
 60.04% CREIGHTON
 56.25% VANDERBILT
*55.48% MICHIGAN
*53.56% ARKANSAS
 53.54% MIAMI
 53.51% MARQUETTE
*50.83% XAVIER
 49.17% MARYLAND
*46.49% SOUTH CAROLINA
*46.46% MICHIGAN STATE
 46.44% SETON HALL
 44.52% OKLAHOMA STATE
*43.75% NORTHWESTERN
*39.96% RHODE ISLAND
 39.36% KANSAS STATE
*38.79% MIDDLE TENNESSEE
 32.48% VIRGINIA TECH
 30.33% VCU
 26.97% PRINCETON
 24.27% NEVADA
 23.09% DAYTON
 20.97% VERMONT
*19.36% USC
 15.07% WINTHROP
 14.54% UNC WILMINGTON
 13.52% EAST TENN. ST.
 13.07% NEW MEXICO STATE
 11.67% BUCKNELL
 10.84% FLORIDA GULF COAST
  9.59% KENT STATE
  8.80% IONA
  8.38% NORTH DAKOTA
  6.82% TROY
  4.61% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  4.00% JACKSONVILLE STATE
  2.31% UC DAVIS
  1.84% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
  1.37% MOUNT ST MARY'S
  1.35% TEXAS SOUTHERN

*82.22% GONZAGA
*80.33% NORTH CAROLINA
 72.74% VILLANOVA
*69.16% KANSAS
 66.09% DUKE
 62.87% FLORIDA STATE
*61.36% WEST VIRGINIA
*58.80% OREGON
 57.56% LOUISVILLE
*54.43% KENTUCKY
*52.30% BUTLER
*48.99% UCLA
*48.82% ARIZONA
*47.85% FLORIDA
 46.79% VIRGINIA
 46.59% SMU
*46.03% BAYLOR
*44.89% PURDUE
 42.06% IOWA STATE
 39.40% WICHITA ST
 39.10% SAINT MARY'S
 32.67% CINCINNATI
 29.84% NOTRE DAME
 29.53% MINNESOTA
 26.05% CREIGHTON
*24.67% MICHIGAN
*21.35% WISCONSIN
 18.24% MARQUETTE
*17.71% XAVIER
 17.50% OKLAHOMA STATE
 17.21% KANSAS STATE
 17.17% MIAMI
 16.79% MARYLAND
 14.67% MIDDLE TENNESSEE
*14.47% SOUTH CAROLINA
 13.70% RHODE ISLAND
 13.50% MICHIGAN STATE
 11.21% VCU
 11.05% ARKANSAS
 10.80% VANDERBILT
  8.49% SETON HALL
  7.30% NEVADA
  6.73% NORTHWESTERN
  5.82% VIRGINIA TECH
  5.81% DAYTON
  5.75% PRINCETON
  5.75% VERMONT
  5.24% USC
  3.50% WINTHROP
  3.05% BUCKNELL
  2.83% UNC WILMINGTON
  2.64% FLORIDA GULF COAST
  2.52% EAST TENN. ST.
  2.13% NEW MEXICO STATE
  1.46% IONA
  1.20% TROY
  1.13% KENT STATE
  0.88% NORTH DAKOTA
  0.36% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  0.27% JACKSONVILLE STATE
  0.25% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
  0.17% UC DAVIS
  0.13% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.09% MOUNT ST MARY'S

*61.98% NORTH CAROLINA
*55.97% GONZAGA
 45.18% VILLANOVA
*39.23% KANSAS
 37.60% DUKE
 36.72% LOUISVILLE
 35.65% FLORIDA STATE
*34.75% KENTUCKY
 27.59% WEST VIRGINIA
*27.19% OREGON
 25.76% ARIZONA
 25.34% SMU
 24.82% WICHITA ST
 24.04% PURDUE
 23.64% BAYLOR
 22.28% IOWA STATE
*22.02% FLORIDA
 21.67% SAINT MARY'S
 21.44% VIRGINIA
 19.82% UCLA
 17.79% BUTLER
 13.97% MICHIGAN
 13.21% CINCINNATI
  9.57% NOTRE DAME
  9.33% CREIGHTON
  9.12% WISCONSIN
  8.98% OKLAHOMA STATE
  8.23% MINNESOTA
  6.81% MARQUETTE
* 6.42% XAVIER
  6.41% MIAMI
  5.96% MARYLAND
  5.27% KANSAS STATE
  5.13% ARKANSAS
* 4.94% SOUTH CAROLINA
  4.61% MICHIGAN STATE
  4.04% VCU
  3.69% RHODE ISLAND
  3.68% VANDERBILT
  3.65% SETON HALL
  2.90% MIDDLE TENNESSEE
  2.01% DAYTON
  2.01% NEVADA
  1.94% NORTHWESTERN
  1.55% VIRGINIA TECH
  1.41% VERMONT
  1.24% USC
  0.88% PRINCETON
  0.39% FLORIDA GULF COAST
  0.38% UNC WILMINGTON
  0.34% BUCKNELL
  0.32% NEW MEXICO STATE
  0.31% EAST TENN. ST.
  0.30% WINTHROP
  0.12% TROY
  0.11% IONA
  0.09% NORTH DAKOTA
  0.07% KENT STATE
  0.03% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  0.02% JACKSONVILLE STATE
  0.02% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
  0.01% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.01% UC DAVIS
  0.00% MOUNT ST MARY'S

*42.06% GONZAGA
*38.74% NORTH CAROLINA
 29.81% VILLANOVA
 21.47% LOUISVILLE
 20.98% KANSAS
 18.74% KENTUCKY
 17.97% WEST VIRGINIA
 17.31% DUKE
*13.75% OREGON
 13.32% FLORIDA STATE
 13.18% WICHITA ST
 12.35% FLORIDA
 12.15% PURDUE
 11.99% VIRGINIA
 11.13% IOWA STATE
 10.91% SMU
  9.47% BAYLOR
  8.49% UCLA
  8.35% ARIZONA
  7.55% SAINT MARY'S
  7.13% MICHIGAN
  6.97% BUTLER
  5.66% CINCINNATI
  4.90% NOTRE DAME
  4.26% WISCONSIN
  4.10% OKLAHOMA STATE
  3.73% CREIGHTON
  2.66% MINNESOTA
  2.19% MIAMI
  1.87% MARQUETTE
  1.76% KANSAS STATE
  1.55% ARKANSAS
  1.52% VANDERBILT
  1.43% MICHIGAN STATE
  1.32% XAVIER
* 1.22% SOUTH CAROLINA
  1.19% MARYLAND
  1.14% RHODE ISLAND
  0.99% SETON HALL
  0.77% VCU
  0.69% NORTHWESTERN
  0.67% MIDDLE TENNESSEE
  0.55% DAYTON
  0.49% NEVADA
  0.46% VIRGINIA TECH
  0.31% VERMONT
  0.25% PRINCETON
  0.19% USC
  0.07% BUCKNELL
  0.07% UNC WILMINGTON
  0.06% EAST TENN. ST.
  0.03% WINTHROP
  0.03% NEW MEXICO STATE
  0.03% FLORIDA GULF COAST
  0.01% IONA
  0.01% TROY
  0.01% KENT STATE
  0.00% NORTH DAKOTA
  0.00% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  0.00% JACKSONVILLE STATE
  0.00% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
  0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.00% UC DAVIS
  0.00% MOUNT ST MARY'S

*26.67% GONZAGA
*24.17% NORTH CAROLINA
 17.39% VILLANOVA
 11.44% LOUISVILLE
 10.44% KENTUCKY
 10.42% KANSAS
  9.36% WEST VIRGINIA
  8.25% DUKE
  7.23% WICHITA ST
  6.25% OREGON
  5.98% FLORIDA
  5.78% VIRGINIA
  5.68% PURDUE
  5.65% FLORIDA STATE
  5.14% IOWA STATE
  4.88% SMU
  3.95% BAYLOR
  3.73% UCLA
  3.27% MICHIGAN
  3.10% ARIZONA
  3.00% SAINT MARY'S
  2.72% BUTLER
  2.49% CINCINNATI
  1.86% NOTRE DAME
  1.68% WISCONSIN
  1.67% OKLAHOMA STATE
  1.32% CREIGHTON
  0.85% MINNESOTA
  0.68% MIAMI
  0.59% KANSAS STATE
  0.55% MARQUETTE
  0.46% ARKANSAS
  0.44% VANDERBILT
  0.40% MICHIGAN STATE
  0.32% SOUTH CAROLINA
  0.31% XAVIER
  0.30% RHODE ISLAND
  0.28% MARYLAND
  0.27% SETON HALL
  0.17% VCU
  0.16% NORTHWESTERN
  0.15% MIDDLE TENNESSEE
  0.15% DAYTON
  0.11% VIRGINIA TECH
  0.11% NEVADA
  0.06% VERMONT
  0.05% PRINCETON
  0.03% USC
  0.01% UNC WILMINGTON
  0.01% BUCKNELL
  0.01% EAST TENN. ST.
  0.00% WINTHROP
  0.00% NEW MEXICO STATE
  0.00% FLORIDA GULF COAST
  0.00% IONA
  0.00% TROY
  0.00% KENT STATE
  0.00% NORTH DAKOTA
  0.00% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  0.00% JACKSONVILLE STATE
  0.00% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
  0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.00% UC DAVIS
  0.00% MOUNT ST MARY'S

 17.44% GONZAGA
*13.15% NORTH CAROLINA
 10.73% VILLANOVA
  5.57% LOUISVILLE
  5.07% WEST VIRGINIA
  4.98% KENTUCKY
  4.69% KANSAS
  4.19% DUKE
  3.38% WICHITA ST
  3.08% FLORIDA
  2.97% VIRGINIA
  2.55% OREGON
  2.51% FLORIDA STATE
  2.39% PURDUE
  2.33% SMU
  2.14% IOWA STATE
  1.77% BAYLOR
  1.36% UCLA
  1.35% MICHIGAN
  1.25% SAINT MARY'S
  1.21% ARIZONA
  0.90% CINCINNATI
  0.86% BUTLER
  0.75% NOTRE DAME
  0.71% WISCONSIN
  0.60% OKLAHOMA STATE
  0.41% CREIGHTON
  0.22% MINNESOTA
  0.18% MIAMI
  0.17% MARQUETTE
  0.16% KANSAS STATE
  0.13% VANDERBILT
  0.11% ARKANSAS
  0.10% MICHIGAN STATE
  0.09% SOUTH CAROLINA
  0.08% XAVIER
  0.07% RHODE ISLAND
  0.07% MARYLAND
  0.06% SETON HALL
  0.04% NORTHWESTERN
  0.04% VCU
  0.03% DAYTON
  0.03% VIRGINIA TECH
  0.03% MIDDLE TENNESSEE
  0.02% NEVADA
  0.01% VERMONT
  0.01% PRINCETON
  0.01% USC
  0.00% UNC WILMINGTON
  0.00% BUCKNELL
  0.00% EAST TENN. ST.
  0.00% NEW MEXICO STATE
  0.00% WINTHROP
  0.00% FLORIDA GULF COAST
  0.00% IONA
  0.00% TROY
  0.00% KENT STATE
  0.00% NORTH DAKOTA
  0.00% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  0.00% JACKSONVILLE STATE
  0.00% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
  0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.00% MOUNT ST MARY'S
  0.00% UC DAVIS

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 14

First Round Second Round Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion 
 61.48% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
 56.24% PROVIDENCE
 52.90% NEW ORLEANS
 51.36% WAKE FOREST
*48.64% KANSAS STATE
*47.10% MOUNT ST MARY'S
*43.76% USC
*38.52% UC DAVIS

*98.66% NORTH CAROLINA
*98.55% VILLANOVA
*98.17% GONZAGA
*96.37% KANSAS
*96.04% LOUISVILLE
*95.45% KENTUCKY
*93.24% DUKE
*91.82% ARIZONA
*91.41% OREGON
*90.60% UCLA
*89.21% FLORIDA STATE
*88.25% WEST VIRGINIA
*87.05% BAYLOR
*86.60% FLORIDA
*85.54% VIRGINIA
*85.36% BUTLER
*79.12% PURDUE
 77.73% SMU
*77.05% WICHITA ST
*75.87% IOWA STATE
*73.02% NOTRE DAME
*70.04% SAINT MARY'S
*67.47% WISCONSIN
*61.54% CINCINNATI
 61.17% MINNESOTA
 60.26% CREIGHTON
 56.28% VANDERBILT
*55.55% MICHIGAN
 53.71% MIAMI
*53.49% ARKANSAS
 53.41% MARQUETTE
*51.10% XAVIER
 48.90% MARYLAND
*46.59% SOUTH CAROLINA
 46.51% SETON HALL
*46.29% MICHIGAN STATE
 44.45% OKLAHOMA STATE
*43.72% NORTHWESTERN
*39.74% RHODE ISLAND
*38.83% MIDDLE TENNESSEE
 32.53% VIRGINIA TECH
 29.96% VCU
 26.98% PRINCETON
 24.13% NEVADA
 22.95% DAYTON
 20.88% VERMONT
 20.07% WAKE FOREST
 18.38% KANSAS STATE
 14.64% WINTHROP
 14.46% UNC WILMINGTON
 13.67% PROVIDENCE
 13.40% EAST TENN. ST.
 12.95% NEW MEXICO STATE
 11.75% BUCKNELL
 10.79% FLORIDA GULF COAST
  9.40% KENT STATE
* 8.60% USC
  8.59% IONA
  8.18% NORTH DAKOTA
  6.76% TROY
  4.55% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  3.96% JACKSONVILLE STATE
  2.74% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
  1.83% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
  1.34% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.89% UC DAVIS
  0.84% NEW ORLEANS
  0.61% MOUNT ST MARY'S

*82.22% GONZAGA
*80.39% NORTH CAROLINA
 72.67% VILLANOVA
*68.13% KANSAS
 66.19% DUKE
 62.98% FLORIDA STATE
*61.13% WEST VIRGINIA
*59.47% OREGON
 57.81% LOUISVILLE
*54.67% KENTUCKY
*52.73% BUTLER
*49.68% UCLA
*49.30% ARIZONA
*47.90% FLORIDA
 46.82% VIRGINIA
*46.14% BAYLOR
*45.11% PURDUE
 44.98% SMU
 41.96% IOWA STATE
 39.28% WICHITA ST
 39.01% SAINT MARY'S
 32.88% CINCINNATI
 30.01% NOTRE DAME
 29.33% MINNESOTA
 25.78% CREIGHTON
*24.57% MICHIGAN
*21.37% WISCONSIN
 18.15% MARQUETTE
*17.81% XAVIER
 17.68% MIAMI
 17.35% OKLAHOMA STATE
 16.59% MARYLAND
 14.60% MIDDLE TENNESSEE
*14.49% SOUTH CAROLINA
 13.78% MICHIGAN STATE
 13.33% RHODE ISLAND
 10.99% ARKANSAS
 10.84% VCU
 10.81% VANDERBILT
  8.64% WAKE FOREST
  8.49% SETON HALL
  7.68% KANSAS STATE
  7.18% NEVADA
  6.72% NORTHWESTERN
  5.86% VIRGINIA TECH
  5.80% PRINCETON
  5.75% VERMONT
  5.69% DAYTON
  4.44% PROVIDENCE
  3.34% WINTHROP
  3.06% BUCKNELL
  2.80% UNC WILMINGTON
  2.62% FLORIDA GULF COAST
  2.48% EAST TENN. ST.
  2.36% USC
  2.07% NEW MEXICO STATE
  1.43% IONA
  1.18% TROY
  1.12% KENT STATE
  0.85% NORTH DAKOTA
  0.36% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  0.34% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
  0.27% JACKSONVILLE STATE
  0.25% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
  0.13% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.07% UC DAVIS
  0.06% NEW ORLEANS
  0.04% MOUNT ST MARY'S

*62.03% NORTH CAROLINA
*56.13% GONZAGA
 45.11% VILLANOVA
*38.60% KANSAS
 38.00% DUKE
 36.69% LOUISVILLE
 35.63% FLORIDA STATE
*34.94% KENTUCKY
*27.83% OREGON
 27.34% WEST VIRGINIA
 26.16% ARIZONA
 24.69% WICHITA ST
 24.35% SMU
 24.34% PURDUE
 23.53% BAYLOR
 22.31% IOWA STATE
*22.05% FLORIDA
 21.59% SAINT MARY'S
 21.47% VIRGINIA
 20.22% UCLA
 17.94% BUTLER
 13.77% MICHIGAN
 13.25% CINCINNATI
  9.62% NOTRE DAME
  9.23% CREIGHTON
  9.12% WISCONSIN
  8.79% OKLAHOMA STATE
  8.13% MINNESOTA
  6.85% MARQUETTE
  6.62% MIAMI
* 6.44% XAVIER
  5.84% MARYLAND
  5.09% ARKANSAS
* 5.01% SOUTH CAROLINA
  4.70% MICHIGAN STATE
  3.86% VCU
  3.71% VANDERBILT
  3.65% SETON HALL
  3.56% RHODE ISLAND
  2.87% MIDDLE TENNESSEE
  2.61% WAKE FOREST
  2.24% KANSAS STATE
  1.98% NEVADA
  1.95% DAYTON
  1.95% NORTHWESTERN
  1.56% VIRGINIA TECH
  1.42% VERMONT
  1.27% PROVIDENCE
  0.89% PRINCETON
  0.56% USC
  0.39% FLORIDA GULF COAST
  0.37% UNC WILMINGTON
  0.34% BUCKNELL
  0.31% EAST TENN. ST.
  0.30% NEW MEXICO STATE
  0.28% WINTHROP
  0.12% TROY
  0.11% IONA
  0.09% NORTH DAKOTA
  0.07% KENT STATE
  0.03% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  0.02% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
  0.02% JACKSONVILLE STATE
  0.02% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
  0.01% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.00% UC DAVIS
  0.00% NEW ORLEANS
  0.00% MOUNT ST MARY'S

*42.12% GONZAGA
*38.76% NORTH CAROLINA
 29.83% VILLANOVA
 21.54% LOUISVILLE
 20.51% KANSAS
 18.86% KENTUCKY
 17.70% WEST VIRGINIA
 17.54% DUKE
*14.28% OREGON
 13.36% FLORIDA STATE
 13.07% WICHITA ST
 12.41% FLORIDA
 12.26% PURDUE
 12.04% VIRGINIA
 11.06% IOWA STATE
 10.45% SMU
  9.36% BAYLOR
  8.70% UCLA
  8.58% ARIZONA
  7.54% SAINT MARY'S
  7.04% MICHIGAN
  7.03% BUTLER
  5.65% CINCINNATI
  4.91% NOTRE DAME
  4.28% WISCONSIN
  4.01% OKLAHOMA STATE
  3.71% CREIGHTON
  2.61% MINNESOTA
  2.25% MIAMI
  1.88% MARQUETTE
  1.53% ARKANSAS
  1.52% VANDERBILT
  1.44% MICHIGAN STATE
  1.33% XAVIER
* 1.24% SOUTH CAROLINA
  1.16% MARYLAND
  1.10% RHODE ISLAND
  0.99% SETON HALL
  0.86% WAKE FOREST
  0.72% VCU
  0.71% KANSAS STATE
  0.69% NORTHWESTERN
  0.66% MIDDLE TENNESSEE
  0.53% DAYTON
  0.48% NEVADA
  0.47% VIRGINIA TECH
  0.31% VERMONT
  0.25% PRINCETON
  0.25% PROVIDENCE
  0.09% USC
  0.07% BUCKNELL
  0.07% UNC WILMINGTON
  0.05% EAST TENN. ST.
  0.03% WINTHROP
  0.03% FLORIDA GULF COAST
  0.03% NEW MEXICO STATE
  0.01% IONA
  0.01% TROY
  0.01% KENT STATE
  0.00% NORTH DAKOTA
  0.00% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  0.00% JACKSONVILLE STATE
  0.00% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
  0.00% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
  0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.00% NEW ORLEANS
  0.00% UC DAVIS
  0.00% MOUNT ST MARY'S

*26.70% GONZAGA
*24.21% NORTH CAROLINA
 17.42% VILLANOVA
 11.48% LOUISVILLE
 10.53% KENTUCKY
 10.13% KANSAS
  9.18% WEST VIRGINIA
  8.39% DUKE
  7.15% WICHITA ST
  6.56% OREGON
  6.02% FLORIDA
  5.82% VIRGINIA
  5.72% PURDUE
  5.67% FLORIDA STATE
  5.07% IOWA STATE
  4.66% SMU
  3.89% BAYLOR
  3.85% UCLA
  3.22% MICHIGAN
  3.21% ARIZONA
  2.99% SAINT MARY'S
  2.74% BUTLER
  2.48% CINCINNATI
  1.87% NOTRE DAME
  1.69% WISCONSIN
  1.62% OKLAHOMA STATE
  1.31% CREIGHTON
  0.84% MINNESOTA
  0.69% MIAMI
  0.55% MARQUETTE
  0.46% ARKANSAS
  0.44% VANDERBILT
  0.40% MICHIGAN STATE
  0.33% SOUTH CAROLINA
  0.32% XAVIER
  0.29% RHODE ISLAND
  0.29% WAKE FOREST
  0.27% MARYLAND
  0.27% SETON HALL
  0.23% KANSAS STATE
  0.16% NORTHWESTERN
  0.16% VCU
  0.15% MIDDLE TENNESSEE
  0.14% DAYTON
  0.11% VIRGINIA TECH
  0.10% NEVADA
  0.06% VERMONT
  0.05% PROVIDENCE
  0.05% PRINCETON
  0.02% USC
  0.01% UNC WILMINGTON
  0.01% BUCKNELL
  0.01% EAST TENN. ST.
  0.00% NEW MEXICO STATE
  0.00% WINTHROP
  0.00% FLORIDA GULF COAST
  0.00% IONA
  0.00% TROY
  0.00% KENT STATE
  0.00% NORTH DAKOTA
  0.00% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  0.00% JACKSONVILLE STATE
  0.00% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
  0.00% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
  0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.00% NEW ORLEANS
  0.00% UC DAVIS
  0.00% MOUNT ST MARY'S

 17.43% GONZAGA
*13.19% NORTH CAROLINA
 10.75% VILLANOVA
  5.60% LOUISVILLE
  5.04% KENTUCKY
  4.94% WEST VIRGINIA
  4.55% KANSAS
  4.26% DUKE
  3.34% WICHITA ST
  3.10% FLORIDA
  2.99% VIRGINIA
  2.72% OREGON
  2.52% FLORIDA STATE
  2.41% PURDUE
  2.22% SMU
  2.10% IOWA STATE
  1.73% BAYLOR
  1.41% UCLA
  1.33% MICHIGAN
  1.26% ARIZONA
  1.24% SAINT MARY'S
  0.90% CINCINNATI
  0.87% BUTLER
  0.74% NOTRE DAME
  0.71% WISCONSIN
  0.58% OKLAHOMA STATE
  0.41% CREIGHTON
  0.21% MINNESOTA
  0.19% MIAMI
  0.17% MARQUETTE
  0.13% VANDERBILT
  0.11% ARKANSAS
  0.10% MICHIGAN STATE
  0.09% SOUTH CAROLINA
  0.08% XAVIER
  0.08% WAKE FOREST
  0.07% MARYLAND
  0.07% RHODE ISLAND
  0.06% KANSAS STATE
  0.06% SETON HALL
  0.04% NORTHWESTERN
  0.04% VCU
  0.03% DAYTON
  0.03% VIRGINIA TECH
  0.03% MIDDLE TENNESSEE
  0.02% NEVADA
  0.01% PROVIDENCE
  0.01% VERMONT
  0.01% PRINCETON
  0.00% USC
  0.00% UNC WILMINGTON
  0.00% BUCKNELL
  0.00% EAST TENN. ST.
  0.00% NEW MEXICO STATE
  0.00% FLORIDA GULF COAST
  0.00% WINTHROP
  0.00% IONA
  0.00% TROY
  0.00% KENT STATE
  0.00% NORTH DAKOTA
  0.00% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  0.00% JACKSONVILLE STATE
  0.00% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
  0.00% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
  0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.00% NEW ORLEANS
  0.00% MOUNT ST MARY'S
  0.00% UC DAVIS

Selection Notes Overall, selection and seeding followed historical precedents, as measured by my Pairwise rankings (which are tuned based on previous committee selections). Here are the handful of outliers.

Kentucky finished ranked in the top four in nearly every measure and won its tournament, but UNC was given a #1 seed instead. In addition to getting a #1 seed, the Tarheels were given a fairly easy bracket, with my predictive rankings giving them the 2nd best chance of winning despite them being a distant 3rd in those rankings.

Similarly, SMU was a clear #5 seed, while Minnesota should have been a #6 (if not #7) seed (Saint Mary's should have been seeded ahead of Minnesota as well). Wisconsin should have been 1-2 seeds higher as well, at the expense of South Carolina and Dayton. Virginia Tech and Northwestern should probably have had their seeds swapped, though this was not as egregious.

The real head scratchers come with Michigan State and Vanderbilt, arguably the two worst teams in the tournament by most metrics. Somehow they were handed #9 seeds, when they should have been at best #11 play-in seeds (and one should have been left out of the touranment in favor of Southern Illinois). Wichita State(legitimate #7-8 seed), Oklahoma State (#8-9), and Xavier and USC (both of whom should have been #10 seeds) all should have moved up.

* Denotes team advanced
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Note: if you use any of the facts, equations, or mathematical principles introduced here, you must give me credit.

copyright ©2017 Andrew Dolphin