Basketball Tournament Predictions (2019)

Biggest Surprise: Chalk (0.49%)

Normally, I use this area to highlight a team's surprising run against the odds, such as Loyola's run in 2018, South Carolina in 2017, etc. However, this year's tournament was surprising for a different reason - the favorites mostly won. Here are two numbers that stand out:

All sixteen favorites (determined per my rankings) won in the second round. With all underdogs having more than a 12.5% (one-in-eight) chance of winning, the likelihood of all sixteen losing was a mere 0.49%.
There were 22 games played in which the underdog had less than a 23% chance of winning. The underdog went 0-for-22 in those games, a 6.6% likelihood.

For comparison, the least probable run by a team this year was Texas Tech's championship game appearance (5.97% probability).

Number of Upsets

Are there more upsets in the NCAA tournament than if these were just regular season games? For this analysis, "upset" is defined by a team with less than 50% chance (as calculated below) winning its game (generally the same as the betting underdog) rather than based on committee seeding.

First Four: 1.6 predicted, 0 actual
First Round: 7.6 predicted, 11 actual
Second Round: 4.4 predicted, 5 actual
Sweet Sixteen: 2.7 predicted, 2 actual
Elite Eight: 1.7 predicted, 2 actual
Final Four: 0.8 predicted, 1 actual
Championship: 0.5 predicted, 0 actual
Grand Total: 19.2 predicted, 16 actual

For this tournament, the number of upsets was below the expected number of upsets by 3.2. For the last five tournaments combined, there were a total of 97 upsets, compared with an expected 99.0 upsets. The difference is -0.2 sigma, which falls at the 42nd percentile on a bell curve. Over these seasons, the number of upsets as a function of likelihood of the upset happening breaks down as follows. There is no clear indication that upsets are more or less likely than predicted (with predictions based primarily on regular-season results).

Likelihood # Games Expected
# Upsets Actual
# Upsets Sigma

0-5% 28 0.7 2 1.6

5-10% 14 1.1 1 -0.1

10-15% 25 3.2 0 -1.9

15-20% 26 4.6 2 -1.3

20-25% 31 7.0 7 0.0

25-30% 25 7.0 7 0.0

30-35% 51 16.6 12 -1.4

35-40% 31 11.7 16 1.6

40-45% 47 20.1 21 0.3

45-50% 57 27.0 29 0.5

Total 335 99.0 97 -0.2

Likelihood	# Games	Expected # Upsets	Actual # Upsets	Sigma
0-5%	28	0.7	2	1.6
5-10%	14	1.1	1	-0.1
10-15%	25	3.2	0	-1.9
15-20%	26	4.6	2	-1.3
20-25%	31	7.0	7	0.0
25-30%	25	7.0	7	0.0
30-35%	51	16.6	12	-1.4
35-40%	31	11.7	16	1.6
40-45%	47	20.1	21	0.3
45-50%	57	27.0	29	0.5
Total	335	99.0	97	-0.2

Odds of Advancing to Round, April 7

Champion

*52.91% VIRGINIA 47.09% TEXAS TECH

Champion
*52.91% VIRGINIA 47.09% TEXAS TECH

Odds of Advancing to Round, April 1

Finals Champion

*67.68% VIRGINIA 54.01% MICHIGAN STATE *45.99% TEXAS TECH 32.32% AUBURN

*36.94% VIRGINIA 28.64% MICHIGAN STATE 22.59% TEXAS TECH 11.82% AUBURN

Finals	Champion
67.68% VIRGINIA 54.01% MICHIGAN STATE 45.99% TEXAS TECH 32.32% AUBURN	*36.94% VIRGINIA 28.64% MICHIGAN STATE 22.59% TEXAS TECH 11.82% AUBURN

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 30

Final Four Finals Champion

63.09% GONZAGA *61.73% VIRGINIA 57.84% KENTUCKY *51.82% MICHIGAN STATE 48.18% DUKE *42.16% AUBURN 38.27% PURDUE *36.91% TEXAS TECH

*39.17% VIRGINIA 37.74% GONZAGA 25.55% KENTUCKY 23.80% MICHIGAN STATE 21.28% DUKE 19.85% PURDUE *17.19% TEXAS TECH 15.43% AUBURN

23.90% GONZAGA *19.91% VIRGINIA 13.01% MICHIGAN STATE 11.25% DUKE 10.36% KENTUCKY 8.67% TEXAS TECH 7.78% PURDUE 5.12% AUBURN

Final Four	Finals	Champion
63.09% GONZAGA 61.73% VIRGINIA 57.84% KENTUCKY 51.82% MICHIGAN STATE 48.18% DUKE 42.16% AUBURN 38.27% PURDUE 36.91% TEXAS TECH	39.17% VIRGINIA 37.74% GONZAGA 25.55% KENTUCKY 23.80% MICHIGAN STATE 21.28% DUKE 19.85% PURDUE 17.19% TEXAS TECH 15.43% AUBURN	23.90% GONZAGA *19.91% VIRGINIA 13.01% MICHIGAN STATE 11.25% DUKE 10.36% KENTUCKY 8.67% TEXAS TECH 7.78% PURDUE 5.12% AUBURN

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 25

Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion

*81.14% VIRGINIA *75.62% GONZAGA *75.08% MICHIGAN STATE *67.09% DUKE 66.05% NORTH CAROLINA *58.88% KENTUCKY *55.06% PURDUE 53.83% MICHIGAN *46.17% TEXAS TECH 44.94% TENNESSEE 41.12% HOUSTON *33.95% AUBURN 32.91% VIRGINIA TECH 24.92% LSU 24.38% FLORIDA STATE 18.86% OREGON

*53.80% VIRGINIA 48.89% GONZAGA *41.89% MICHIGAN STATE 38.69% NORTH CAROLINA 37.62% DUKE 29.76% KENTUCKY 23.48% MICHIGAN 23.23% PURDUE *18.48% TEXAS TECH 17.19% HOUSTON 16.88% TENNESSEE *14.36% AUBURN 12.94% VIRGINIA TECH 9.15% FLORIDA STATE 7.55% LSU 6.09% OREGON

*33.88% VIRGINIA 30.65% GONZAGA 20.88% MICHIGAN STATE 19.95% NORTH CAROLINA 18.68% DUKE 13.90% KENTUCKY 11.73% MICHIGAN 11.34% PURDUE * 8.55% TEXAS TECH 7.40% TENNESSEE 6.57% HOUSTON 5.16% AUBURN 4.28% VIRGINIA TECH 3.31% FLORIDA STATE 1.92% LSU 1.79% OREGON

19.14% GONZAGA *18.84% VIRGINIA 11.25% MICHIGAN STATE 10.04% DUKE 9.71% NORTH CAROLINA 6.09% KENTUCKY 5.83% MICHIGAN 4.70% PURDUE 3.93% TEXAS TECH 2.71% TENNESSEE 2.32% HOUSTON 1.71% AUBURN 1.57% VIRGINIA TECH 1.19% FLORIDA STATE 0.55% LSU 0.42% OREGON

Elite Eight	Final Four	Finals	Champion
81.14% VIRGINIA 75.62% GONZAGA 75.08% MICHIGAN STATE 67.09% DUKE 66.05% NORTH CAROLINA 58.88% KENTUCKY 55.06% PURDUE 53.83% MICHIGAN 46.17% TEXAS TECH 44.94% TENNESSEE 41.12% HOUSTON 33.95% AUBURN 32.91% VIRGINIA TECH 24.92% LSU 24.38% FLORIDA STATE 18.86% OREGON	53.80% VIRGINIA 48.89% GONZAGA 41.89% MICHIGAN STATE 38.69% NORTH CAROLINA 37.62% DUKE 29.76% KENTUCKY 23.48% MICHIGAN 23.23% PURDUE 18.48% TEXAS TECH 17.19% HOUSTON 16.88% TENNESSEE 14.36% AUBURN 12.94% VIRGINIA TECH 9.15% FLORIDA STATE 7.55% LSU 6.09% OREGON	33.88% VIRGINIA 30.65% GONZAGA 20.88% MICHIGAN STATE 19.95% NORTH CAROLINA 18.68% DUKE 13.90% KENTUCKY 11.73% MICHIGAN 11.34% PURDUE 8.55% TEXAS TECH 7.40% TENNESSEE 6.57% HOUSTON 5.16% AUBURN 4.28% VIRGINIA TECH 3.31% FLORIDA STATE 1.92% LSU 1.79% OREGON	19.14% GONZAGA *18.84% VIRGINIA 11.25% MICHIGAN STATE 10.04% DUKE 9.71% NORTH CAROLINA 6.09% KENTUCKY 5.83% MICHIGAN 4.70% PURDUE 3.93% TEXAS TECH 2.71% TENNESSEE 2.32% HOUSTON 1.71% AUBURN 1.57% VIRGINIA TECH 1.19% FLORIDA STATE 0.55% LSU 0.42% OREGON

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 23

Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion

*87.24% GONZAGA *83.98% VIRGINIA *83.04% DUKE *82.44% NORTH CAROLINA *81.69% VIRGINIA TECH *81.42% MICHIGAN STATE *72.34% MICHIGAN *71.38% TENNESSEE *70.30% HOUSTON *69.53% OREGON *69.38% PURDUE *69.02% FLORIDA STATE *68.88% KENTUCKY *63.83% TEXAS TECH *53.13% AUBURN *51.70% LSU 48.30% MARYLAND 46.87% KANSAS 36.17% BUFFALO 31.12% WOFFORD 30.98% MURRAY STATE 30.62% VILLANOVA 30.47% UC IRVINE 29.70% OHIO STATE 28.62% IOWA 27.66% FLORIDA 18.58% MINNESOTA 18.31% LIBERTY 17.56% WASHINGTON 16.96% UCF 16.02% OKLAHOMA 12.76% BAYLOR

*71.42% GONZAGA *70.95% VIRGINIA *60.94% MICHIGAN STATE *60.17% DUKE 55.58% NORTH CAROLINA *45.53% KENTUCKY 43.44% MICHIGAN *40.39% PURDUE 38.40% TENNESSEE *32.65% TEXAS TECH 31.90% HOUSTON 31.08% VIRGINIA TECH *21.36% AUBURN 18.72% FLORIDA STATE 17.52% KANSAS 17.00% OREGON 16.59% LSU 14.82% MARYLAND 14.76% WOFFORD 13.64% BUFFALO 11.90% VILLANOVA 10.26% FLORIDA 9.30% IOWA 8.30% OKLAHOMA 7.81% OHIO STATE 7.65% MINNESOTA 6.42% UCF 5.54% WASHINGTON 5.37% BAYLOR 4.49% MURRAY STATE 3.76% UC IRVINE 2.33% LIBERTY

*50.30% VIRGINIA 50.30% GONZAGA 37.62% DUKE *34.33% MICHIGAN STATE 34.28% NORTH CAROLINA 25.17% KENTUCKY 19.65% MICHIGAN 17.91% PURDUE 16.27% TENNESSEE 14.33% HOUSTON 13.99% VIRGINIA TECH *13.24% TEXAS TECH * 9.78% AUBURN 7.67% FLORIDA STATE 7.49% KANSAS 6.39% OREGON 5.41% WOFFORD 5.38% LSU 4.60% MARYLAND 3.93% BUFFALO 3.28% VILLANOVA 2.80% OKLAHOMA 2.62% FLORIDA 2.26% IOWA 2.04% OHIO STATE 1.89% MINNESOTA 1.81% UCF 1.51% BAYLOR 1.51% WASHINGTON 1.07% MURRAY STATE 0.78% UC IRVINE 0.39% LIBERTY

*33.15% VIRGINIA 32.82% GONZAGA 19.90% DUKE 18.29% NORTH CAROLINA 17.32% MICHIGAN STATE 12.62% KENTUCKY 10.03% MICHIGAN 8.92% PURDUE 7.75% TENNESSEE * 6.10% TEXAS TECH 5.74% HOUSTON 4.96% VIRGINIA TECH 3.71% AUBURN 2.76% FLORIDA STATE 2.64% KANSAS 2.08% OREGON 1.75% WOFFORD 1.47% LSU 1.30% BUFFALO 1.20% MARYLAND 1.01% VILLANOVA 0.81% OKLAHOMA 0.77% FLORIDA 0.61% IOWA 0.46% OHIO STATE 0.38% MINNESOTA 0.37% UCF 0.37% BAYLOR 0.32% WASHINGTON 0.22% MURRAY STATE 0.13% UC IRVINE 0.04% LIBERTY

21.38% GONZAGA *18.56% VIRGINIA 11.41% DUKE 9.51% MICHIGAN STATE 8.77% NORTH CAROLINA 5.64% KENTUCKY 5.10% MICHIGAN 3.54% PURDUE 2.92% TENNESSEE 2.80% TEXAS TECH 1.99% HOUSTON 1.95% VIRGINIA TECH 1.21% AUBURN 0.99% FLORIDA STATE 0.79% KANSAS 0.50% OREGON 0.48% WOFFORD 0.45% LSU 0.43% BUFFALO 0.35% MARYLAND 0.23% VILLANOVA 0.23% FLORIDA 0.17% OKLAHOMA 0.12% IOWA 0.09% MINNESOTA 0.09% BAYLOR 0.09% UCF 0.08% OHIO STATE 0.06% WASHINGTON 0.04% MURRAY STATE 0.02% UC IRVINE 0.01% LIBERTY

Sweet Sixteen	Elite Eight	Final Four	Finals	Champion
87.24% GONZAGA 83.98% VIRGINIA 83.04% DUKE 82.44% NORTH CAROLINA 81.69% VIRGINIA TECH 81.42% MICHIGAN STATE 72.34% MICHIGAN 71.38% TENNESSEE 70.30% HOUSTON 69.53% OREGON 69.38% PURDUE 69.02% FLORIDA STATE 68.88% KENTUCKY 63.83% TEXAS TECH 53.13% AUBURN 51.70% LSU 48.30% MARYLAND 46.87% KANSAS 36.17% BUFFALO 31.12% WOFFORD 30.98% MURRAY STATE 30.62% VILLANOVA 30.47% UC IRVINE 29.70% OHIO STATE 28.62% IOWA 27.66% FLORIDA 18.58% MINNESOTA 18.31% LIBERTY 17.56% WASHINGTON 16.96% UCF 16.02% OKLAHOMA 12.76% BAYLOR	71.42% GONZAGA 70.95% VIRGINIA 60.94% MICHIGAN STATE 60.17% DUKE 55.58% NORTH CAROLINA 45.53% KENTUCKY 43.44% MICHIGAN 40.39% PURDUE 38.40% TENNESSEE 32.65% TEXAS TECH 31.90% HOUSTON 31.08% VIRGINIA TECH 21.36% AUBURN 18.72% FLORIDA STATE 17.52% KANSAS 17.00% OREGON 16.59% LSU 14.82% MARYLAND 14.76% WOFFORD 13.64% BUFFALO 11.90% VILLANOVA 10.26% FLORIDA 9.30% IOWA 8.30% OKLAHOMA 7.81% OHIO STATE 7.65% MINNESOTA 6.42% UCF 5.54% WASHINGTON 5.37% BAYLOR 4.49% MURRAY STATE 3.76% UC IRVINE 2.33% LIBERTY	50.30% VIRGINIA 50.30% GONZAGA 37.62% DUKE 34.33% MICHIGAN STATE 34.28% NORTH CAROLINA 25.17% KENTUCKY 19.65% MICHIGAN 17.91% PURDUE 16.27% TENNESSEE 14.33% HOUSTON 13.99% VIRGINIA TECH 13.24% TEXAS TECH 9.78% AUBURN 7.67% FLORIDA STATE 7.49% KANSAS 6.39% OREGON 5.41% WOFFORD 5.38% LSU 4.60% MARYLAND 3.93% BUFFALO 3.28% VILLANOVA 2.80% OKLAHOMA 2.62% FLORIDA 2.26% IOWA 2.04% OHIO STATE 1.89% MINNESOTA 1.81% UCF 1.51% BAYLOR 1.51% WASHINGTON 1.07% MURRAY STATE 0.78% UC IRVINE 0.39% LIBERTY	33.15% VIRGINIA 32.82% GONZAGA 19.90% DUKE 18.29% NORTH CAROLINA 17.32% MICHIGAN STATE 12.62% KENTUCKY 10.03% MICHIGAN 8.92% PURDUE 7.75% TENNESSEE 6.10% TEXAS TECH 5.74% HOUSTON 4.96% VIRGINIA TECH 3.71% AUBURN 2.76% FLORIDA STATE 2.64% KANSAS 2.08% OREGON 1.75% WOFFORD 1.47% LSU 1.30% BUFFALO 1.20% MARYLAND 1.01% VILLANOVA 0.81% OKLAHOMA 0.77% FLORIDA 0.61% IOWA 0.46% OHIO STATE 0.38% MINNESOTA 0.37% UCF 0.37% BAYLOR 0.32% WASHINGTON 0.22% MURRAY STATE 0.13% UC IRVINE 0.04% LIBERTY	21.38% GONZAGA *18.56% VIRGINIA 11.41% DUKE 9.51% MICHIGAN STATE 8.77% NORTH CAROLINA 5.64% KENTUCKY 5.10% MICHIGAN 3.54% PURDUE 2.92% TENNESSEE 2.80% TEXAS TECH 1.99% HOUSTON 1.95% VIRGINIA TECH 1.21% AUBURN 0.99% FLORIDA STATE 0.79% KANSAS 0.50% OREGON 0.48% WOFFORD 0.45% LSU 0.43% BUFFALO 0.35% MARYLAND 0.23% VILLANOVA 0.23% FLORIDA 0.17% OKLAHOMA 0.12% IOWA 0.09% MINNESOTA 0.09% BAYLOR 0.09% UCF 0.08% OHIO STATE 0.06% WASHINGTON 0.04% MURRAY STATE 0.02% UC IRVINE 0.01% LIBERTY

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 21

Second Round Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion

*99.08% GONZAGA *98.78% DUKE *98.42% VIRGINIA *98.31% NORTH CAROLINA *97.51% MICHIGAN STATE *95.28% KENTUCKY *94.80% MICHIGAN *92.19% PURDUE *92.07% TENNESSEE *90.15% TEXAS TECH *86.79% HOUSTON *86.04% VIRGINIA TECH *82.17% FLORIDA STATE *79.28% LSU *78.48% KANSAS 76.80% MISSISSIPPI STATE 76.41% KANSAS STATE *74.81% AUBURN *71.37% BUFFALO 66.76% IOWA STATE 66.19% LOUISVILLE *66.00% MARYLAND 66.00% WISCONSIN 65.85% MARQUETTE *65.83% WOFFORD 55.15% SYRACUSE 54.91% VCU 54.84% UTAH STATE *54.05% VILLANOVA 52.85% CINCINNATI *51.52% OKLAHOMA 50.19% NEVADA *49.81% FLORIDA 48.48% OLE MISS *47.15% IOWA 45.95% SAINT MARY'S *45.16% WASHINGTON *45.09% UCF *44.85% BAYLOR 34.17% SETON HALL *34.15% MURRAY STATE *34.00% OREGON 34.00% BELMONT *33.81% MINNESOTA *33.24% OHIO STATE 28.63% ARIZONA STATE 25.19% NEW MEXICO STATE *23.59% UC IRVINE *23.20% LIBERTY 21.52% NORTHEASTERN 20.72% YALE 17.83% VERMONT 13.96% SAINT LOUIS 13.21% GEORGIA STATE 9.85% NORTHERN KENTUCKY 7.93% COLGATE 7.81% OLD DOMINION 5.20% MONTANA 4.72% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 2.49% BRADLEY 1.69% IONA 1.58% GARDNER-WEBB 1.22% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.92% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

*87.04% VIRGINIA *85.48% GONZAGA *83.98% NORTH CAROLINA *83.69% DUKE *74.70% MICHIGAN STATE *70.27% MICHIGAN *69.51% KENTUCKY *67.50% TENNESSEE *65.67% PURDUE *62.94% TEXAS TECH *56.76% VIRGINIA TECH *53.68% FLORIDA STATE *51.04% HOUSTON *47.81% AUBURN *45.30% LSU 40.84% WISCONSIN 37.84% KANSAS STATE 37.81% KANSAS 35.91% MARYLAND 34.60% MISSISSIPPI STATE 34.52% IOWA STATE 30.19% MARQUETTE 28.50% BUFFALO 22.45% WOFFORD 19.22% LOUISVILLE 18.57% VILLANOVA 16.85% CINCINNATI *15.75% OREGON 14.54% NEVADA 14.34% FLORIDA 14.23% SAINT MARY'S 13.94% IOWA 13.24% BELMONT 11.91% OHIO STATE 10.69% MURRAY STATE 9.81% NEW MEXICO STATE 9.59% VCU 9.34% UTAH STATE 8.65% SYRACUSE 7.32% SETON HALL 6.72% OKLAHOMA 6.58% UCF 6.44% WASHINGTON 6.28% ARIZONA STATE 5.96% OLE MISS 5.79% MINNESOTA 5.78% BAYLOR 5.58% UC IRVINE 5.54% YALE 5.44% VERMONT 4.90% LIBERTY 4.56% NORTHEASTERN 3.73% SAINT LOUIS 2.54% GEORGIA STATE 2.29% NORTHERN KENTUCKY 1.71% COLGATE 1.53% OLD DOMINION 0.85% MONTANA 0.72% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.29% BRADLEY 0.27% GARDNER-WEBB 0.24% IONA 0.14% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.10% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

*69.20% VIRGINIA *69.01% GONZAGA *62.14% DUKE 61.51% NORTH CAROLINA *58.50% MICHIGAN STATE *45.24% KENTUCKY 44.05% MICHIGAN *38.46% PURDUE 38.40% TENNESSEE *32.54% TEXAS TECH 23.51% HOUSTON 21.16% VIRGINIA TECH *18.64% AUBURN 16.20% FLORIDA STATE 14.81% IOWA STATE 14.23% LSU 12.63% WISCONSIN 12.01% KANSAS 11.10% LOUISVILLE 10.75% MARYLAND 10.72% BUFFALO 10.45% WOFFORD 9.93% KANSAS STATE 9.83% MISSISSIPPI STATE 7.29% VILLANOVA 6.76% MARQUETTE 5.87% CINCINNATI 5.59% NEVADA 5.49% FLORIDA 5.07% SAINT MARY'S 4.51% IOWA 3.86% SYRACUSE 3.71% VCU 3.39% UTAH STATE 3.30% OHIO STATE 3.03% OREGON 2.49% OKLAHOMA 2.41% MINNESOTA 2.39% BELMONT 2.30% SETON HALL 2.30% BAYLOR 2.26% UCF 2.13% OLE MISS 2.06% WASHINGTON 1.83% NEW MEXICO STATE 1.39% MURRAY STATE 1.24% ARIZONA STATE 0.59% YALE 0.57% UC IRVINE 0.54% NORTHEASTERN 0.53% LIBERTY 0.48% VERMONT 0.35% SAINT LOUIS 0.31% GEORGIA STATE 0.27% NORTHERN KENTUCKY 0.21% COLGATE 0.20% OLD DOMINION 0.09% MONTANA 0.08% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.04% BRADLEY 0.03% GARDNER-WEBB 0.02% IONA 0.01% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.01% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

*50.41% VIRGINIA 47.83% GONZAGA 40.76% NORTH CAROLINA 38.97% DUKE *33.59% MICHIGAN STATE 23.15% KENTUCKY 20.89% MICHIGAN 15.98% PURDUE 15.71% TENNESSEE *13.68% TEXAS TECH 9.56% HOUSTON 9.38% VIRGINIA TECH * 9.17% AUBURN 6.98% FLORIDA STATE 6.09% WISCONSIN 5.57% IOWA STATE 4.94% KANSAS 4.62% LSU 4.21% KANSAS STATE 3.92% LOUISVILLE 3.50% WOFFORD 3.42% MISSISSIPPI STATE 3.34% MARYLAND 3.14% BUFFALO 2.26% MARQUETTE 1.80% VILLANOVA 1.44% NEVADA 1.40% FLORIDA 1.30% CINCINNATI 1.19% SYRACUSE 1.11% SAINT MARY'S 1.04% VCU 0.99% OREGON 0.98% UTAH STATE 0.91% IOWA 0.78% OHIO STATE 0.74% OKLAHOMA 0.61% BAYLOR 0.60% OLE MISS 0.55% UCF 0.53% MINNESOTA 0.52% WASHINGTON 0.48% SETON HALL 0.46% NEW MEXICO STATE 0.45% BELMONT 0.29% MURRAY STATE 0.18% ARIZONA STATE 0.11% UC IRVINE 0.09% NORTHEASTERN 0.08% LIBERTY 0.07% VERMONT 0.07% YALE 0.04% SAINT LOUIS 0.03% GEORGIA STATE 0.02% NORTHERN KENTUCKY 0.01% COLGATE 0.01% OLD DOMINION 0.01% MONTANA 0.00% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.00% GARDNER-WEBB 0.00% BRADLEY 0.00% IONA 0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

*33.88% VIRGINIA 29.72% GONZAGA 22.02% NORTH CAROLINA 21.79% DUKE 18.16% MICHIGAN STATE 10.68% KENTUCKY 10.40% MICHIGAN 7.87% PURDUE 7.62% TENNESSEE * 6.03% TEXAS TECH 3.50% VIRGINIA TECH 3.43% HOUSTON 3.42% AUBURN 2.55% WISCONSIN 2.51% FLORIDA STATE 1.84% IOWA STATE 1.53% KANSAS STATE 1.48% KANSAS 1.36% LSU 1.26% LOUISVILLE 1.02% WOFFORD 0.97% MISSISSIPPI STATE 0.96% BUFFALO 0.93% MARYLAND 0.61% MARQUETTE 0.55% VILLANOVA 0.39% NEVADA 0.37% FLORIDA 0.36% CINCINNATI 0.30% SAINT MARY'S 0.30% SYRACUSE 0.27% OREGON 0.23% VCU 0.23% IOWA 0.20% UTAH STATE 0.18% OKLAHOMA 0.15% OHIO STATE 0.14% OLE MISS 0.13% BAYLOR 0.10% MINNESOTA 0.10% UCF 0.09% WASHINGTON 0.08% SETON HALL 0.08% NEW MEXICO STATE 0.07% BELMONT 0.05% MURRAY STATE 0.03% ARIZONA STATE 0.02% UC IRVINE 0.01% NORTHEASTERN 0.01% LIBERTY 0.01% VERMONT 0.01% YALE 0.00% SAINT LOUIS 0.00% GEORGIA STATE 0.00% NORTHERN KENTUCKY 0.00% COLGATE 0.00% OLD DOMINION 0.00% MONTANA 0.00% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.00% GARDNER-WEBB 0.00% BRADLEY 0.00% IONA 0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

*19.87% VIRGINIA 18.30% GONZAGA 12.41% DUKE 11.20% NORTH CAROLINA 10.01% MICHIGAN STATE 5.11% MICHIGAN 4.57% KENTUCKY 3.16% PURDUE 3.01% TENNESSEE 2.62% TEXAS TECH 1.33% VIRGINIA TECH 1.16% AUBURN 1.12% HOUSTON 0.89% FLORIDA STATE 0.85% WISCONSIN 0.54% IOWA STATE 0.43% KANSAS STATE 0.41% LOUISVILLE 0.41% LSU 0.40% KANSAS 0.29% BUFFALO 0.28% MISSISSIPPI STATE 0.27% MARYLAND 0.26% WOFFORD 0.16% MARQUETTE 0.13% VILLANOVA 0.10% NEVADA 0.10% FLORIDA 0.07% CINCINNATI 0.07% SYRACUSE 0.06% SAINT MARY'S 0.06% OREGON 0.05% VCU 0.04% IOWA 0.03% UTAH STATE 0.03% OKLAHOMA 0.03% BAYLOR 0.03% OHIO STATE 0.02% OLE MISS 0.02% MINNESOTA 0.02% UCF 0.01% WASHINGTON 0.01% BELMONT 0.01% SETON HALL 0.01% NEW MEXICO STATE 0.01% MURRAY STATE 0.00% ARIZONA STATE 0.00% UC IRVINE 0.00% LIBERTY 0.00% VERMONT 0.00% NORTHEASTERN 0.00% YALE 0.00% SAINT LOUIS 0.00% NORTHERN KENTUCKY 0.00% GEORGIA STATE 0.00% OLD DOMINION 0.00% COLGATE 0.00% MONTANA 0.00% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.00% GARDNER-WEBB 0.00% BRADLEY 0.00% IONA 0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

Second Round	Sweet Sixteen	Elite Eight	Final Four	Finals	Champion
99.08% GONZAGA 98.78% DUKE 98.42% VIRGINIA 98.31% NORTH CAROLINA 97.51% MICHIGAN STATE 95.28% KENTUCKY 94.80% MICHIGAN 92.19% PURDUE 92.07% TENNESSEE 90.15% TEXAS TECH 86.79% HOUSTON 86.04% VIRGINIA TECH 82.17% FLORIDA STATE 79.28% LSU 78.48% KANSAS 76.80% MISSISSIPPI STATE 76.41% KANSAS STATE 74.81% AUBURN 71.37% BUFFALO 66.76% IOWA STATE 66.19% LOUISVILLE 66.00% MARYLAND 66.00% WISCONSIN 65.85% MARQUETTE 65.83% WOFFORD 55.15% SYRACUSE 54.91% VCU 54.84% UTAH STATE 54.05% VILLANOVA 52.85% CINCINNATI 51.52% OKLAHOMA 50.19% NEVADA 49.81% FLORIDA 48.48% OLE MISS 47.15% IOWA 45.95% SAINT MARY'S 45.16% WASHINGTON 45.09% UCF 44.85% BAYLOR 34.17% SETON HALL 34.15% MURRAY STATE 34.00% OREGON 34.00% BELMONT 33.81% MINNESOTA 33.24% OHIO STATE 28.63% ARIZONA STATE 25.19% NEW MEXICO STATE 23.59% UC IRVINE 23.20% LIBERTY 21.52% NORTHEASTERN 20.72% YALE 17.83% VERMONT 13.96% SAINT LOUIS 13.21% GEORGIA STATE 9.85% NORTHERN KENTUCKY 7.93% COLGATE 7.81% OLD DOMINION 5.20% MONTANA 4.72% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 2.49% BRADLEY 1.69% IONA 1.58% GARDNER-WEBB 1.22% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.92% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON	87.04% VIRGINIA 85.48% GONZAGA 83.98% NORTH CAROLINA 83.69% DUKE 74.70% MICHIGAN STATE 70.27% MICHIGAN 69.51% KENTUCKY 67.50% TENNESSEE 65.67% PURDUE 62.94% TEXAS TECH 56.76% VIRGINIA TECH 53.68% FLORIDA STATE 51.04% HOUSTON 47.81% AUBURN 45.30% LSU 40.84% WISCONSIN 37.84% KANSAS STATE 37.81% KANSAS 35.91% MARYLAND 34.60% MISSISSIPPI STATE 34.52% IOWA STATE 30.19% MARQUETTE 28.50% BUFFALO 22.45% WOFFORD 19.22% LOUISVILLE 18.57% VILLANOVA 16.85% CINCINNATI 15.75% OREGON 14.54% NEVADA 14.34% FLORIDA 14.23% SAINT MARY'S 13.94% IOWA 13.24% BELMONT 11.91% OHIO STATE 10.69% MURRAY STATE 9.81% NEW MEXICO STATE 9.59% VCU 9.34% UTAH STATE 8.65% SYRACUSE 7.32% SETON HALL 6.72% OKLAHOMA 6.58% UCF 6.44% WASHINGTON 6.28% ARIZONA STATE 5.96% OLE MISS 5.79% MINNESOTA 5.78% BAYLOR 5.58% UC IRVINE 5.54% YALE 5.44% VERMONT 4.90% LIBERTY 4.56% NORTHEASTERN 3.73% SAINT LOUIS 2.54% GEORGIA STATE 2.29% NORTHERN KENTUCKY 1.71% COLGATE 1.53% OLD DOMINION 0.85% MONTANA 0.72% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.29% BRADLEY 0.27% GARDNER-WEBB 0.24% IONA 0.14% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.10% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON	69.20% VIRGINIA 69.01% GONZAGA 62.14% DUKE 61.51% NORTH CAROLINA 58.50% MICHIGAN STATE 45.24% KENTUCKY 44.05% MICHIGAN 38.46% PURDUE 38.40% TENNESSEE 32.54% TEXAS TECH 23.51% HOUSTON 21.16% VIRGINIA TECH 18.64% AUBURN 16.20% FLORIDA STATE 14.81% IOWA STATE 14.23% LSU 12.63% WISCONSIN 12.01% KANSAS 11.10% LOUISVILLE 10.75% MARYLAND 10.72% BUFFALO 10.45% WOFFORD 9.93% KANSAS STATE 9.83% MISSISSIPPI STATE 7.29% VILLANOVA 6.76% MARQUETTE 5.87% CINCINNATI 5.59% NEVADA 5.49% FLORIDA 5.07% SAINT MARY'S 4.51% IOWA 3.86% SYRACUSE 3.71% VCU 3.39% UTAH STATE 3.30% OHIO STATE 3.03% OREGON 2.49% OKLAHOMA 2.41% MINNESOTA 2.39% BELMONT 2.30% SETON HALL 2.30% BAYLOR 2.26% UCF 2.13% OLE MISS 2.06% WASHINGTON 1.83% NEW MEXICO STATE 1.39% MURRAY STATE 1.24% ARIZONA STATE 0.59% YALE 0.57% UC IRVINE 0.54% NORTHEASTERN 0.53% LIBERTY 0.48% VERMONT 0.35% SAINT LOUIS 0.31% GEORGIA STATE 0.27% NORTHERN KENTUCKY 0.21% COLGATE 0.20% OLD DOMINION 0.09% MONTANA 0.08% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.04% BRADLEY 0.03% GARDNER-WEBB 0.02% IONA 0.01% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.01% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON	50.41% VIRGINIA 47.83% GONZAGA 40.76% NORTH CAROLINA 38.97% DUKE 33.59% MICHIGAN STATE 23.15% KENTUCKY 20.89% MICHIGAN 15.98% PURDUE 15.71% TENNESSEE 13.68% TEXAS TECH 9.56% HOUSTON 9.38% VIRGINIA TECH 9.17% AUBURN 6.98% FLORIDA STATE 6.09% WISCONSIN 5.57% IOWA STATE 4.94% KANSAS 4.62% LSU 4.21% KANSAS STATE 3.92% LOUISVILLE 3.50% WOFFORD 3.42% MISSISSIPPI STATE 3.34% MARYLAND 3.14% BUFFALO 2.26% MARQUETTE 1.80% VILLANOVA 1.44% NEVADA 1.40% FLORIDA 1.30% CINCINNATI 1.19% SYRACUSE 1.11% SAINT MARY'S 1.04% VCU 0.99% OREGON 0.98% UTAH STATE 0.91% IOWA 0.78% OHIO STATE 0.74% OKLAHOMA 0.61% BAYLOR 0.60% OLE MISS 0.55% UCF 0.53% MINNESOTA 0.52% WASHINGTON 0.48% SETON HALL 0.46% NEW MEXICO STATE 0.45% BELMONT 0.29% MURRAY STATE 0.18% ARIZONA STATE 0.11% UC IRVINE 0.09% NORTHEASTERN 0.08% LIBERTY 0.07% VERMONT 0.07% YALE 0.04% SAINT LOUIS 0.03% GEORGIA STATE 0.02% NORTHERN KENTUCKY 0.01% COLGATE 0.01% OLD DOMINION 0.01% MONTANA 0.00% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.00% GARDNER-WEBB 0.00% BRADLEY 0.00% IONA 0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON	33.88% VIRGINIA 29.72% GONZAGA 22.02% NORTH CAROLINA 21.79% DUKE 18.16% MICHIGAN STATE 10.68% KENTUCKY 10.40% MICHIGAN 7.87% PURDUE 7.62% TENNESSEE 6.03% TEXAS TECH 3.50% VIRGINIA TECH 3.43% HOUSTON 3.42% AUBURN 2.55% WISCONSIN 2.51% FLORIDA STATE 1.84% IOWA STATE 1.53% KANSAS STATE 1.48% KANSAS 1.36% LSU 1.26% LOUISVILLE 1.02% WOFFORD 0.97% MISSISSIPPI STATE 0.96% BUFFALO 0.93% MARYLAND 0.61% MARQUETTE 0.55% VILLANOVA 0.39% NEVADA 0.37% FLORIDA 0.36% CINCINNATI 0.30% SAINT MARY'S 0.30% SYRACUSE 0.27% OREGON 0.23% VCU 0.23% IOWA 0.20% UTAH STATE 0.18% OKLAHOMA 0.15% OHIO STATE 0.14% OLE MISS 0.13% BAYLOR 0.10% MINNESOTA 0.10% UCF 0.09% WASHINGTON 0.08% SETON HALL 0.08% NEW MEXICO STATE 0.07% BELMONT 0.05% MURRAY STATE 0.03% ARIZONA STATE 0.02% UC IRVINE 0.01% NORTHEASTERN 0.01% LIBERTY 0.01% VERMONT 0.01% YALE 0.00% SAINT LOUIS 0.00% GEORGIA STATE 0.00% NORTHERN KENTUCKY 0.00% COLGATE 0.00% OLD DOMINION 0.00% MONTANA 0.00% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.00% GARDNER-WEBB 0.00% BRADLEY 0.00% IONA 0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON	*19.87% VIRGINIA 18.30% GONZAGA 12.41% DUKE 11.20% NORTH CAROLINA 10.01% MICHIGAN STATE 5.11% MICHIGAN 4.57% KENTUCKY 3.16% PURDUE 3.01% TENNESSEE 2.62% TEXAS TECH 1.33% VIRGINIA TECH 1.16% AUBURN 1.12% HOUSTON 0.89% FLORIDA STATE 0.85% WISCONSIN 0.54% IOWA STATE 0.43% KANSAS STATE 0.41% LOUISVILLE 0.41% LSU 0.40% KANSAS 0.29% BUFFALO 0.28% MISSISSIPPI STATE 0.27% MARYLAND 0.26% WOFFORD 0.16% MARQUETTE 0.13% VILLANOVA 0.10% NEVADA 0.10% FLORIDA 0.07% CINCINNATI 0.07% SYRACUSE 0.06% SAINT MARY'S 0.06% OREGON 0.05% VCU 0.04% IOWA 0.03% UTAH STATE 0.03% OKLAHOMA 0.03% BAYLOR 0.03% OHIO STATE 0.02% OLE MISS 0.02% MINNESOTA 0.02% UCF 0.01% WASHINGTON 0.01% BELMONT 0.01% SETON HALL 0.01% NEW MEXICO STATE 0.01% MURRAY STATE 0.00% ARIZONA STATE 0.00% UC IRVINE 0.00% LIBERTY 0.00% VERMONT 0.00% NORTHEASTERN 0.00% YALE 0.00% SAINT LOUIS 0.00% NORTHERN KENTUCKY 0.00% GEORGIA STATE 0.00% OLD DOMINION 0.00% COLGATE 0.00% MONTANA 0.00% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.00% GARDNER-WEBB 0.00% BRADLEY 0.00% IONA 0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 19

First Round Second Round Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion

*68.30% NORTH DAKOTA STATE *59.25% BELMONT *58.68% ARIZONA STATE *51.59% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON 48.41% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M 41.32% ST. JOHN'S 40.75% TEMPLE 31.70% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

*99.24% GONZAGA *99.02% DUKE *98.50% VIRGINIA *98.37% NORTH CAROLINA *97.56% MICHIGAN STATE *95.30% KENTUCKY *94.82% MICHIGAN *92.19% TENNESSEE *92.11% PURDUE *90.46% TEXAS TECH *86.64% HOUSTON *86.12% VIRGINIA TECH *82.51% FLORIDA STATE *79.62% LSU *78.66% KANSAS 77.05% MISSISSIPPI STATE 76.50% KANSAS STATE *75.08% BUFFALO *74.42% AUBURN *70.36% MARYLAND 66.75% IOWA STATE *66.33% WOFFORD 66.21% WISCONSIN 66.18% LOUISVILLE 66.01% MARQUETTE 55.22% SYRACUSE 54.95% VCU 54.91% UTAH STATE *53.83% VILLANOVA 52.49% CINCINNATI *51.40% OKLAHOMA 50.24% NEVADA *49.76% FLORIDA 48.60% OLE MISS *47.51% IOWA 46.17% SAINT MARY'S *45.09% WASHINGTON *45.05% UCF *44.78% BAYLOR *33.99% MURRAY STATE *33.82% MINNESOTA *33.79% OREGON 33.67% SETON HALL *33.25% OHIO STATE 25.58% NEW MEXICO STATE *23.50% UC IRVINE *22.95% LIBERTY 21.34% NORTHEASTERN 20.38% YALE 19.49% BELMONT 17.49% VERMONT 16.29% ARIZONA STATE 13.88% SAINT LOUIS 13.36% GEORGIA STATE 10.15% TEMPLE 9.54% NORTHERN KENTUCKY 8.63% ST. JOHN'S 7.89% OLD DOMINION 7.81% COLGATE 5.18% MONTANA 4.70% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 2.44% BRADLEY 1.63% IONA 1.50% GARDNER-WEBB 0.87% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.41% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON 0.34% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M 0.11% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

*87.17% VIRGINIA *85.71% GONZAGA *84.10% NORTH CAROLINA *84.05% DUKE *74.79% MICHIGAN STATE *70.37% MICHIGAN *69.25% KENTUCKY *67.72% TENNESSEE *65.68% PURDUE *63.00% TEXAS TECH *56.76% VIRGINIA TECH *54.01% FLORIDA STATE *50.83% HOUSTON *47.61% AUBURN *45.86% LSU 40.97% WISCONSIN 38.24% MARYLAND 37.90% KANSAS STATE 37.82% KANSAS 34.74% MISSISSIPPI STATE 34.62% IOWA STATE 30.16% MARQUETTE 29.97% BUFFALO 22.87% WOFFORD 19.16% LOUISVILLE 18.43% VILLANOVA 16.56% CINCINNATI *15.58% OREGON 14.51% NEVADA 14.33% SAINT MARY'S 14.27% FLORIDA 14.04% IOWA 11.96% OHIO STATE 10.55% MURRAY STATE 10.10% NEW MEXICO STATE 9.42% VCU 9.30% UTAH STATE 8.55% SYRACUSE 7.37% BELMONT 7.18% SETON HALL 6.64% OKLAHOMA 6.43% UCF 6.37% WASHINGTON 5.94% OLE MISS 5.77% MINNESOTA 5.67% BAYLOR 5.55% UC IRVINE 5.51% YALE 5.28% VERMONT 4.81% LIBERTY 4.46% NORTHEASTERN 3.69% SAINT LOUIS 3.46% ARIZONA STATE 3.02% TEMPLE 2.58% GEORGIA STATE 2.19% NORTHERN KENTUCKY 1.68% COLGATE 1.56% OLD DOMINION 1.38% ST. JOHN'S 0.85% MONTANA 0.70% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.28% BRADLEY 0.25% GARDNER-WEBB 0.23% IONA 0.10% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.04% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON 0.03% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M 0.01% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

*69.33% VIRGINIA *69.28% GONZAGA *62.44% DUKE 61.65% NORTH CAROLINA *58.50% MICHIGAN STATE *45.19% KENTUCKY 44.03% MICHIGAN *38.52% PURDUE 38.48% TENNESSEE *32.52% TEXAS TECH 23.28% HOUSTON 21.05% VIRGINIA TECH *18.54% AUBURN 16.18% FLORIDA STATE 14.80% IOWA STATE 14.39% LSU 12.64% WISCONSIN 11.97% KANSAS 11.43% MARYLAND 11.28% BUFFALO 11.04% LOUISVILLE 10.78% WOFFORD 9.92% KANSAS STATE 9.83% MISSISSIPPI STATE 7.22% VILLANOVA 6.67% MARQUETTE 5.71% CINCINNATI 5.55% NEVADA 5.42% FLORIDA 5.12% SAINT MARY'S 4.54% IOWA 3.81% SYRACUSE 3.63% VCU 3.37% UTAH STATE 3.30% OHIO STATE 2.96% OREGON 2.45% OKLAHOMA 2.40% MINNESOTA 2.26% SETON HALL 2.25% BAYLOR 2.19% UCF 2.12% OLE MISS 2.03% WASHINGTON 1.91% NEW MEXICO STATE 1.34% MURRAY STATE 1.27% BELMONT 0.66% ARIZONA STATE 0.57% YALE 0.56% UC IRVINE 0.52% NORTHEASTERN 0.51% LIBERTY 0.45% VERMONT 0.37% TEMPLE 0.35% SAINT LOUIS 0.32% GEORGIA STATE 0.25% NORTHERN KENTUCKY 0.21% OLD DOMINION 0.20% COLGATE 0.19% ST. JOHN'S 0.09% MONTANA 0.08% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.04% BRADLEY 0.02% GARDNER-WEBB 0.02% IONA 0.01% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON 0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M 0.00% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

*50.53% VIRGINIA 48.11% GONZAGA 40.88% NORTH CAROLINA 39.12% DUKE *33.55% MICHIGAN STATE 23.12% KENTUCKY 20.79% MICHIGAN 16.00% PURDUE 15.69% TENNESSEE *13.58% TEXAS TECH 9.42% HOUSTON 9.30% VIRGINIA TECH * 9.13% AUBURN 6.97% FLORIDA STATE 6.09% WISCONSIN 5.56% IOWA STATE 4.91% KANSAS 4.67% LSU 4.21% KANSAS STATE 3.88% LOUISVILLE 3.65% WOFFORD 3.54% MARYLAND 3.41% MISSISSIPPI STATE 3.29% BUFFALO 2.22% MARQUETTE 1.78% VILLANOVA 1.41% NEVADA 1.37% FLORIDA 1.25% CINCINNATI 1.18% SYRACUSE 1.12% SAINT MARY'S 1.01% VCU 0.98% UTAH STATE 0.97% OREGON 0.92% IOWA 0.78% OHIO STATE 0.72% OKLAHOMA 0.60% OLE MISS 0.60% BAYLOR 0.53% MINNESOTA 0.53% UCF 0.51% WASHINGTON 0.49% NEW MEXICO STATE 0.47% SETON HALL 0.27% MURRAY STATE 0.23% BELMONT 0.10% UC IRVINE 0.09% ARIZONA STATE 0.08% NORTHEASTERN 0.07% LIBERTY 0.06% VERMONT 0.06% YALE 0.05% TEMPLE 0.04% SAINT LOUIS 0.03% GEORGIA STATE 0.02% NORTHERN KENTUCKY 0.02% ST. JOHN'S 0.01% OLD DOMINION 0.01% COLGATE 0.01% MONTANA 0.00% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.00% BRADLEY 0.00% GARDNER-WEBB 0.00% IONA 0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON 0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M 0.00% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

*33.97% VIRGINIA 29.94% GONZAGA 22.07% NORTH CAROLINA 21.83% DUKE 18.10% MICHIGAN STATE 10.66% KENTUCKY 10.34% MICHIGAN 7.88% PURDUE 7.60% TENNESSEE * 5.97% TEXAS TECH 3.45% VIRGINIA TECH 3.40% AUBURN 3.36% HOUSTON 2.56% WISCONSIN 2.50% FLORIDA STATE 1.83% IOWA STATE 1.53% KANSAS STATE 1.47% KANSAS 1.36% LSU 1.24% LOUISVILLE 1.07% WOFFORD 1.01% BUFFALO 0.98% MARYLAND 0.96% MISSISSIPPI STATE 0.60% MARQUETTE 0.54% VILLANOVA 0.38% NEVADA 0.36% FLORIDA 0.34% CINCINNATI 0.30% SAINT MARY'S 0.29% SYRACUSE 0.26% OREGON 0.23% IOWA 0.22% VCU 0.20% UTAH STATE 0.18% OKLAHOMA 0.15% OHIO STATE 0.14% OLE MISS 0.13% BAYLOR 0.10% MINNESOTA 0.10% UCF 0.09% WASHINGTON 0.09% NEW MEXICO STATE 0.08% SETON HALL 0.04% MURRAY STATE 0.04% BELMONT 0.02% UC IRVINE 0.01% ARIZONA STATE 0.01% NORTHEASTERN 0.01% LIBERTY 0.01% VERMONT 0.01% YALE 0.01% TEMPLE 0.00% SAINT LOUIS 0.00% GEORGIA STATE 0.00% ST. JOHN'S 0.00% NORTHERN KENTUCKY 0.00% OLD DOMINION 0.00% COLGATE 0.00% MONTANA 0.00% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.00% GARDNER-WEBB 0.00% BRADLEY 0.00% IONA 0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON 0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M 0.00% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

*19.90% VIRGINIA 18.47% GONZAGA 12.43% DUKE 11.21% NORTH CAROLINA 9.97% MICHIGAN STATE 5.08% MICHIGAN 4.55% KENTUCKY 3.16% PURDUE 2.99% TENNESSEE 2.59% TEXAS TECH 1.31% VIRGINIA TECH 1.15% AUBURN 1.08% HOUSTON 0.88% FLORIDA STATE 0.85% WISCONSIN 0.54% IOWA STATE 0.43% KANSAS STATE 0.41% LSU 0.41% LOUISVILLE 0.39% KANSAS 0.30% BUFFALO 0.28% WOFFORD 0.28% MARYLAND 0.28% MISSISSIPPI STATE 0.16% MARQUETTE 0.12% VILLANOVA 0.10% NEVADA 0.09% FLORIDA 0.07% SYRACUSE 0.07% CINCINNATI 0.06% SAINT MARY'S 0.05% OREGON 0.05% VCU 0.04% IOWA 0.03% UTAH STATE 0.03% OKLAHOMA 0.03% OHIO STATE 0.03% BAYLOR 0.02% OLE MISS 0.02% MINNESOTA 0.02% UCF 0.01% NEW MEXICO STATE 0.01% WASHINGTON 0.01% SETON HALL 0.01% MURRAY STATE 0.01% BELMONT 0.00% ARIZONA STATE 0.00% UC IRVINE 0.00% LIBERTY 0.00% NORTHEASTERN 0.00% VERMONT 0.00% TEMPLE 0.00% YALE 0.00% SAINT LOUIS 0.00% ST. JOHN'S 0.00% GEORGIA STATE 0.00% NORTHERN KENTUCKY 0.00% OLD DOMINION 0.00% COLGATE 0.00% MONTANA 0.00% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.00% BRADLEY 0.00% GARDNER-WEBB 0.00% IONA 0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON 0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M 0.00% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

First Round	Second Round	Sweet Sixteen	Elite Eight	Final Four	Finals	Champion
68.30% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 59.25% BELMONT 58.68% ARIZONA STATE 51.59% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON 48.41% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M 41.32% ST. JOHN'S 40.75% TEMPLE 31.70% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL	99.24% GONZAGA 99.02% DUKE 98.50% VIRGINIA 98.37% NORTH CAROLINA 97.56% MICHIGAN STATE 95.30% KENTUCKY 94.82% MICHIGAN 92.19% TENNESSEE 92.11% PURDUE 90.46% TEXAS TECH 86.64% HOUSTON 86.12% VIRGINIA TECH 82.51% FLORIDA STATE 79.62% LSU 78.66% KANSAS 77.05% MISSISSIPPI STATE 76.50% KANSAS STATE 75.08% BUFFALO 74.42% AUBURN 70.36% MARYLAND 66.75% IOWA STATE 66.33% WOFFORD 66.21% WISCONSIN 66.18% LOUISVILLE 66.01% MARQUETTE 55.22% SYRACUSE 54.95% VCU 54.91% UTAH STATE 53.83% VILLANOVA 52.49% CINCINNATI 51.40% OKLAHOMA 50.24% NEVADA 49.76% FLORIDA 48.60% OLE MISS 47.51% IOWA 46.17% SAINT MARY'S 45.09% WASHINGTON 45.05% UCF 44.78% BAYLOR 33.99% MURRAY STATE 33.82% MINNESOTA 33.79% OREGON 33.67% SETON HALL 33.25% OHIO STATE 25.58% NEW MEXICO STATE 23.50% UC IRVINE 22.95% LIBERTY 21.34% NORTHEASTERN 20.38% YALE 19.49% BELMONT 17.49% VERMONT 16.29% ARIZONA STATE 13.88% SAINT LOUIS 13.36% GEORGIA STATE 10.15% TEMPLE 9.54% NORTHERN KENTUCKY 8.63% ST. JOHN'S 7.89% OLD DOMINION 7.81% COLGATE 5.18% MONTANA 4.70% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 2.44% BRADLEY 1.63% IONA 1.50% GARDNER-WEBB 0.87% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.41% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON 0.34% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M 0.11% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL	87.17% VIRGINIA 85.71% GONZAGA 84.10% NORTH CAROLINA 84.05% DUKE 74.79% MICHIGAN STATE 70.37% MICHIGAN 69.25% KENTUCKY 67.72% TENNESSEE 65.68% PURDUE 63.00% TEXAS TECH 56.76% VIRGINIA TECH 54.01% FLORIDA STATE 50.83% HOUSTON 47.61% AUBURN 45.86% LSU 40.97% WISCONSIN 38.24% MARYLAND 37.90% KANSAS STATE 37.82% KANSAS 34.74% MISSISSIPPI STATE 34.62% IOWA STATE 30.16% MARQUETTE 29.97% BUFFALO 22.87% WOFFORD 19.16% LOUISVILLE 18.43% VILLANOVA 16.56% CINCINNATI 15.58% OREGON 14.51% NEVADA 14.33% SAINT MARY'S 14.27% FLORIDA 14.04% IOWA 11.96% OHIO STATE 10.55% MURRAY STATE 10.10% NEW MEXICO STATE 9.42% VCU 9.30% UTAH STATE 8.55% SYRACUSE 7.37% BELMONT 7.18% SETON HALL 6.64% OKLAHOMA 6.43% UCF 6.37% WASHINGTON 5.94% OLE MISS 5.77% MINNESOTA 5.67% BAYLOR 5.55% UC IRVINE 5.51% YALE 5.28% VERMONT 4.81% LIBERTY 4.46% NORTHEASTERN 3.69% SAINT LOUIS 3.46% ARIZONA STATE 3.02% TEMPLE 2.58% GEORGIA STATE 2.19% NORTHERN KENTUCKY 1.68% COLGATE 1.56% OLD DOMINION 1.38% ST. JOHN'S 0.85% MONTANA 0.70% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.28% BRADLEY 0.25% GARDNER-WEBB 0.23% IONA 0.10% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.04% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON 0.03% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M 0.01% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL	69.33% VIRGINIA 69.28% GONZAGA 62.44% DUKE 61.65% NORTH CAROLINA 58.50% MICHIGAN STATE 45.19% KENTUCKY 44.03% MICHIGAN 38.52% PURDUE 38.48% TENNESSEE 32.52% TEXAS TECH 23.28% HOUSTON 21.05% VIRGINIA TECH 18.54% AUBURN 16.18% FLORIDA STATE 14.80% IOWA STATE 14.39% LSU 12.64% WISCONSIN 11.97% KANSAS 11.43% MARYLAND 11.28% BUFFALO 11.04% LOUISVILLE 10.78% WOFFORD 9.92% KANSAS STATE 9.83% MISSISSIPPI STATE 7.22% VILLANOVA 6.67% MARQUETTE 5.71% CINCINNATI 5.55% NEVADA 5.42% FLORIDA 5.12% SAINT MARY'S 4.54% IOWA 3.81% SYRACUSE 3.63% VCU 3.37% UTAH STATE 3.30% OHIO STATE 2.96% OREGON 2.45% OKLAHOMA 2.40% MINNESOTA 2.26% SETON HALL 2.25% BAYLOR 2.19% UCF 2.12% OLE MISS 2.03% WASHINGTON 1.91% NEW MEXICO STATE 1.34% MURRAY STATE 1.27% BELMONT 0.66% ARIZONA STATE 0.57% YALE 0.56% UC IRVINE 0.52% NORTHEASTERN 0.51% LIBERTY 0.45% VERMONT 0.37% TEMPLE 0.35% SAINT LOUIS 0.32% GEORGIA STATE 0.25% NORTHERN KENTUCKY 0.21% OLD DOMINION 0.20% COLGATE 0.19% ST. JOHN'S 0.09% MONTANA 0.08% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.04% BRADLEY 0.02% GARDNER-WEBB 0.02% IONA 0.01% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON 0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M 0.00% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL	50.53% VIRGINIA 48.11% GONZAGA 40.88% NORTH CAROLINA 39.12% DUKE 33.55% MICHIGAN STATE 23.12% KENTUCKY 20.79% MICHIGAN 16.00% PURDUE 15.69% TENNESSEE 13.58% TEXAS TECH 9.42% HOUSTON 9.30% VIRGINIA TECH 9.13% AUBURN 6.97% FLORIDA STATE 6.09% WISCONSIN 5.56% IOWA STATE 4.91% KANSAS 4.67% LSU 4.21% KANSAS STATE 3.88% LOUISVILLE 3.65% WOFFORD 3.54% MARYLAND 3.41% MISSISSIPPI STATE 3.29% BUFFALO 2.22% MARQUETTE 1.78% VILLANOVA 1.41% NEVADA 1.37% FLORIDA 1.25% CINCINNATI 1.18% SYRACUSE 1.12% SAINT MARY'S 1.01% VCU 0.98% UTAH STATE 0.97% OREGON 0.92% IOWA 0.78% OHIO STATE 0.72% OKLAHOMA 0.60% OLE MISS 0.60% BAYLOR 0.53% MINNESOTA 0.53% UCF 0.51% WASHINGTON 0.49% NEW MEXICO STATE 0.47% SETON HALL 0.27% MURRAY STATE 0.23% BELMONT 0.10% UC IRVINE 0.09% ARIZONA STATE 0.08% NORTHEASTERN 0.07% LIBERTY 0.06% VERMONT 0.06% YALE 0.05% TEMPLE 0.04% SAINT LOUIS 0.03% GEORGIA STATE 0.02% NORTHERN KENTUCKY 0.02% ST. JOHN'S 0.01% OLD DOMINION 0.01% COLGATE 0.01% MONTANA 0.00% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.00% BRADLEY 0.00% GARDNER-WEBB 0.00% IONA 0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON 0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M 0.00% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL	33.97% VIRGINIA 29.94% GONZAGA 22.07% NORTH CAROLINA 21.83% DUKE 18.10% MICHIGAN STATE 10.66% KENTUCKY 10.34% MICHIGAN 7.88% PURDUE 7.60% TENNESSEE 5.97% TEXAS TECH 3.45% VIRGINIA TECH 3.40% AUBURN 3.36% HOUSTON 2.56% WISCONSIN 2.50% FLORIDA STATE 1.83% IOWA STATE 1.53% KANSAS STATE 1.47% KANSAS 1.36% LSU 1.24% LOUISVILLE 1.07% WOFFORD 1.01% BUFFALO 0.98% MARYLAND 0.96% MISSISSIPPI STATE 0.60% MARQUETTE 0.54% VILLANOVA 0.38% NEVADA 0.36% FLORIDA 0.34% CINCINNATI 0.30% SAINT MARY'S 0.29% SYRACUSE 0.26% OREGON 0.23% IOWA 0.22% VCU 0.20% UTAH STATE 0.18% OKLAHOMA 0.15% OHIO STATE 0.14% OLE MISS 0.13% BAYLOR 0.10% MINNESOTA 0.10% UCF 0.09% WASHINGTON 0.09% NEW MEXICO STATE 0.08% SETON HALL 0.04% MURRAY STATE 0.04% BELMONT 0.02% UC IRVINE 0.01% ARIZONA STATE 0.01% NORTHEASTERN 0.01% LIBERTY 0.01% VERMONT 0.01% YALE 0.01% TEMPLE 0.00% SAINT LOUIS 0.00% GEORGIA STATE 0.00% ST. JOHN'S 0.00% NORTHERN KENTUCKY 0.00% OLD DOMINION 0.00% COLGATE 0.00% MONTANA 0.00% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.00% GARDNER-WEBB 0.00% BRADLEY 0.00% IONA 0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON 0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M 0.00% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL	*19.90% VIRGINIA 18.47% GONZAGA 12.43% DUKE 11.21% NORTH CAROLINA 9.97% MICHIGAN STATE 5.08% MICHIGAN 4.55% KENTUCKY 3.16% PURDUE 2.99% TENNESSEE 2.59% TEXAS TECH 1.31% VIRGINIA TECH 1.15% AUBURN 1.08% HOUSTON 0.88% FLORIDA STATE 0.85% WISCONSIN 0.54% IOWA STATE 0.43% KANSAS STATE 0.41% LSU 0.41% LOUISVILLE 0.39% KANSAS 0.30% BUFFALO 0.28% WOFFORD 0.28% MARYLAND 0.28% MISSISSIPPI STATE 0.16% MARQUETTE 0.12% VILLANOVA 0.10% NEVADA 0.09% FLORIDA 0.07% SYRACUSE 0.07% CINCINNATI 0.06% SAINT MARY'S 0.05% OREGON 0.05% VCU 0.04% IOWA 0.03% UTAH STATE 0.03% OKLAHOMA 0.03% OHIO STATE 0.03% BAYLOR 0.02% OLE MISS 0.02% MINNESOTA 0.02% UCF 0.01% NEW MEXICO STATE 0.01% WASHINGTON 0.01% SETON HALL 0.01% MURRAY STATE 0.01% BELMONT 0.00% ARIZONA STATE 0.00% UC IRVINE 0.00% LIBERTY 0.00% NORTHEASTERN 0.00% VERMONT 0.00% TEMPLE 0.00% YALE 0.00% SAINT LOUIS 0.00% ST. JOHN'S 0.00% GEORGIA STATE 0.00% NORTHERN KENTUCKY 0.00% OLD DOMINION 0.00% COLGATE 0.00% MONTANA 0.00% ABILENE CHRISTIAN 0.00% BRADLEY 0.00% GARDNER-WEBB 0.00% IONA 0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON 0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M 0.00% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

Selection Notes Delayed this year due to poorly timed work travel...

For the first year of using the new NET ranking system, it is difficult to assess what is or is not following precedent. That said, it is worthwhile to compare the selections and seedings against the available metrics. Here are a few notes:

Overall, the selection process seems very poorly correlated to the old RPI metric (or even to my "improved" version of it). This would validate the notion that the selection committee has moved on from use of the RPI.
Interestingly, advanced win/loss metrics (such as my "standard" and "win-loss" ratings) correlate better to the selections than do the NCAA's new NET ratings. And, blended metrics (a combination of win/loss and score-based, such as my "pairwise" and "pseudopoll") correlate better still to the selections. This hopefully indicates the committee is treating the NET ratings with an appropriate grain of salt.
The committee still seems to include conference records into account, as my "pairwise" rating (basically the pseudo-poll with some conference adjustments) is the best of my ratings to correlate with the seedings. Mixing 80% pairwise with 20% predictive (which increases the impact of margin of victory) gives the best overall prediction of the seedings.

The only real head-scratchers had to do with the selection of the final at-large bids. In particular, St. John's was ranked #73 inthe NET rankings, #53 in my Pairwise rankings, and #91 in my Predictive (score-based) ranking. NC State or Clemson would have been an obvious choice to replace them, as both teams are 11 or more spots higher in all three of the rankings. Oddly, neither of those teams was even listed among the "first four out". Arizona State and Belmont were also well behind NC State and Clemson in those three metrics.

* Denotes team advanced Return to ratings main page

Note: if you use any of the facts, equations, or mathematical principles introduced here, you must give me credit.