Basketball Tournament Predictions (2024)

Biggest Surprise: NC State Advance to the Final Four (0.71%)

NC State's Final Four run was a combination of their own upsets and help from other teams. In the first round, NC State had a 34% chance of winning and pulled off the upset. But, to help, Oakland beat Kentucky (13% chance), giving NC State an easier path forward. The second round went as expected, and NC State kept its roughly 4% chance of advancing. Wolfpack upsets of Marquette and Duke in the next two rounds (28% and 22%, respectively), as well as Duke's upset of Houston (32%) got them into the final four.

Over the tournaments for which I have made predictions, here are the least likely outcomes from each:

2024: NC State in the Final Four (0.71%)
2023: Fairleigh Dickinson in the Second Round (0.87%)
2022: St. Peter's in the Elite Eight (0.16%)
2021: Three Pac-12 teams in the Elite Eight (0.21%)
2020: N/A - Tournament canceled due to COVID-19
2019: All 16 favorites won in the second round (0.49%)
2018: Loyola Chicago in the Final Four (1.22%)
2017: South Carolina in the Final Four (1.24%)
2016: Syracuse in the Final Four (1.60%)
2015: Michigan State in the Final Four (4.23%)

Number of Upsets

After a 2019-2020 season where we could only post a tournament what-if scenario, and a 2020-2021 season where limited schedules, game cancelations, and a mix of empty and mostly-empty arenas made accurate predictions nearly impossible, we are back to asking the normal question: Are there more upsets in the NCAA tournament than if these were just regular season games? For this analysis, "upset" is defined by a team with less than a 50% chance (as calculated below) winning its game (generally the same as the betting underdog) rather than based on committee seeding.

First Four: 1.7 predicted, 2 actual
First Round: 7.5 predicted, 10 actual
Second Round: 4.4 predicted, 1 actual
Sweet Sixteen: 2.7 predicted, 5 actual
Elite Eight: 1.3 predicted, 1 actual
Final Four: 0.5 predicted, 0 actual
Championship: 0.5 predicted, 0 actual
Grand Total: 18.7 predicted, 19 actual

For this tournament, the number of upsets was below the expected number of upsets by 0.3, which is well within the bounds of random variability. Across the tournaments since 2015 for which I have made predictions, we have seen 185 upsets in 603 games, vs. a predicted total of 178.1. While higher than predicted, the differential corresponds to 0.5 standard deviations, whcih is not statistically significant.

Below is the combined breakdown of upset statistics, by the likelihood of an upset, over the years tracked.

Likelihood	# Games	Expected # Upsets	Actual # Upsets	Sigma
0-5%	47	1.3	3	1.6
5-10%	28	2.2	4	1.3
10-15%	43	5.5	2	-1.6
15-20%	48	8.5	7	-0.6
20-25%	62	14.1	17	0.9
25-30%	45	12.5	14	0.5
30-35%	87	28.3	28	-0.1
35-40%	56	21.0	18	-0.8
40-45%	93	39.7	42	0.5
45-50%	98	46.5	50	0.7
Total	607	179.4	185	0.5

Odds of Advancing to Round, April 6

Champion

*53.79% UCONN 46.21% PURDUE

Champion
*53.79% UCONN 46.21% PURDUE

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 31

Finals Champion

*83.89% PURDUE *67.57% UCONN 32.43% ALABAMA 16.11% NC STATE

44.03% PURDUE *39.56% UCONN 13.47% ALABAMA 2.94% NC STATE

Finals	Champion
83.89% PURDUE 67.57% UCONN 32.43% ALABAMA 16.11% NC STATE	44.03% PURDUE *39.56% UCONN 13.47% ALABAMA 2.94% NC STATE

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 29

Final Four Finals Champion

77.86% DUKE *67.38% UCONN *64.51% ALABAMA *58.26% PURDUE 41.74% TENNESSEE 35.49% CLEMSON 32.62% ILLINOIS *22.14% NC STATE

*47.53% UCONN *38.15% PURDUE 33.80% DUKE 25.51% ALABAMA 24.15% TENNESSEE 17.57% ILLINOIS 9.40% CLEMSON 3.90% NC STATE

*27.78% UCONN 22.19% PURDUE 16.37% DUKE 12.12% TENNESSEE 10.78% ALABAMA 7.20% ILLINOIS 2.70% CLEMSON 0.85% NC STATE

Final Four	Finals	Champion
77.86% DUKE 67.38% UCONN 64.51% ALABAMA 58.26% PURDUE 41.74% TENNESSEE 35.49% CLEMSON 32.62% ILLINOIS 22.14% NC STATE	47.53% UCONN 38.15% PURDUE 33.80% DUKE 25.51% ALABAMA 24.15% TENNESSEE 17.57% ILLINOIS 9.40% CLEMSON 3.90% NC STATE	*27.78% UCONN 22.19% PURDUE 16.37% DUKE 12.12% TENNESSEE 10.78% ALABAMA 7.20% ILLINOIS 2.70% CLEMSON 0.85% NC STATE

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 24

Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion

*76.16% UCONN 75.77% ARIZONA 71.80% MARQUETTE 67.68% HOUSTON *64.98% PURDUE 59.44% IOWA STATE *57.85% TENNESSEE 51.73% NORTH CAROLINA *48.27% ALABAMA 42.15% CREIGHTON *40.56% ILLINOIS 35.02% GONZAGA *32.32% DUKE *28.20% NC STATE *24.23% CLEMSON 23.84% SAN DIEGO STATE

53.28% HOUSTON 46.33% ARIZONA *46.24% UCONN *39.89% PURDUE 29.43% IOWA STATE 27.26% TENNESSEE 23.93% NORTH CAROLINA 22.09% MARQUETTE *21.54% ALABAMA 20.59% DUKE 16.64% CREIGHTON 16.42% ILLINOIS 16.21% GONZAGA 8.21% CLEMSON 7.91% SAN DIEGO STATE * 4.04% NC STATE

34.49% HOUSTON *27.75% UCONN 24.97% ARIZONA *21.28% PURDUE 15.66% IOWA STATE 12.41% TENNESSEE 10.46% NORTH CAROLINA 9.69% DUKE 9.06% ALABAMA 8.66% MARQUETTE 7.21% ILLINOIS 6.36% CREIGHTON 6.32% GONZAGA 2.60% SAN DIEGO STATE 2.29% CLEMSON 0.81% NC STATE

22.06% HOUSTON *14.89% UCONN 12.68% ARIZONA 12.02% PURDUE 7.33% IOWA STATE 6.01% TENNESSEE 4.48% DUKE 4.26% NORTH CAROLINA 3.54% ALABAMA 3.33% MARQUETTE 2.72% ILLINOIS 2.62% GONZAGA 2.59% CREIGHTON 0.72% SAN DIEGO STATE 0.59% CLEMSON 0.16% NC STATE

Elite Eight	Final Four	Finals	Champion
76.16% UCONN 75.77% ARIZONA 71.80% MARQUETTE 67.68% HOUSTON 64.98% PURDUE 59.44% IOWA STATE 57.85% TENNESSEE 51.73% NORTH CAROLINA 48.27% ALABAMA 42.15% CREIGHTON 40.56% ILLINOIS 35.02% GONZAGA 32.32% DUKE 28.20% NC STATE 24.23% CLEMSON 23.84% SAN DIEGO STATE	53.28% HOUSTON 46.33% ARIZONA 46.24% UCONN 39.89% PURDUE 29.43% IOWA STATE 27.26% TENNESSEE 23.93% NORTH CAROLINA 22.09% MARQUETTE 21.54% ALABAMA 20.59% DUKE 16.64% CREIGHTON 16.42% ILLINOIS 16.21% GONZAGA 8.21% CLEMSON 7.91% SAN DIEGO STATE 4.04% NC STATE	34.49% HOUSTON 27.75% UCONN 24.97% ARIZONA 21.28% PURDUE 15.66% IOWA STATE 12.41% TENNESSEE 10.46% NORTH CAROLINA 9.69% DUKE 9.06% ALABAMA 8.66% MARQUETTE 7.21% ILLINOIS 6.36% CREIGHTON 6.32% GONZAGA 2.60% SAN DIEGO STATE 2.29% CLEMSON 0.81% NC STATE	22.06% HOUSTON *14.89% UCONN 12.68% ARIZONA 12.02% PURDUE 7.33% IOWA STATE 6.01% TENNESSEE 4.48% DUKE 4.26% NORTH CAROLINA 3.54% ALABAMA 3.33% MARQUETTE 2.72% ILLINOIS 2.62% GONZAGA 2.59% CREIGHTON 0.72% SAN DIEGO STATE 0.59% CLEMSON 0.16% NC STATE

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 22

Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion

*86.69% HOUSTON *82.07% ILLINOIS *81.90% UCONN *80.32% PURDUE *78.23% ARIZONA *77.88% DUKE *76.94% IOWA STATE *75.30% ALABAMA *73.13% NC STATE *70.78% CREIGHTON *69.35% SAN DIEGO STATE *66.40% TENNESSEE 65.75% BAYLOR *61.46% MARQUETTE *56.51% NORTH CAROLINA *55.41% GONZAGA 44.59% KANSAS 43.49% MICHIGAN STATE 38.54% COLORADO *34.25% CLEMSON 33.60% TEXAS 30.65% YALE 29.22% OREGON 26.87% OAKLAND 24.70% GRAND CANYON 23.06% WASHINGTON STATE 22.12% JAMES MADISON 21.77% DAYTON 19.68% UTAH STATE 18.10% NORTHWESTERN 17.93% DUQUESNE 13.31% TEXAS A&M

*66.05% UCONN 64.93% HOUSTON *53.58% PURDUE 52.69% ARIZONA 50.36% IOWA STATE 46.78% MARQUETTE *42.49% TENNESSEE *39.12% ALABAMA *37.83% ILLINOIS 33.45% CREIGHTON 32.26% NORTH CAROLINA 28.96% BAYLOR *27.36% DUKE 25.66% COLORADO *23.71% NC STATE 23.26% GONZAGA 22.11% MICHIGAN STATE 20.31% SAN DIEGO STATE 16.51% KANSAS 16.09% TEXAS *10.16% CLEMSON 8.88% NORTHWESTERN 8.82% WASHINGTON STATE 8.18% DAYTON 7.97% OREGON 6.65% UTAH STATE 6.50% GRAND CANYON 4.76% YALE 4.64% TEXAS A&M 3.85% OAKLAND 3.08% JAMES MADISON 2.98% DUQUESNE

53.06% HOUSTON *41.93% UCONN *34.05% PURDUE 34.05% ARIZONA 27.36% IOWA STATE 22.34% TENNESSEE *18.26% ALABAMA 17.78% DUKE 16.87% ILLINOIS 15.60% MARQUETTE 15.33% NORTH CAROLINA 15.17% BAYLOR 14.87% CREIGHTON 11.47% GONZAGA 9.13% MICHIGAN STATE 7.27% KANSAS 7.26% SAN DIEGO STATE 6.20% COLORADO 5.88% TEXAS * 3.99% NC STATE 3.73% CLEMSON 2.84% DAYTON 2.63% NORTHWESTERN 2.52% WASHINGTON STATE 2.08% UTAH STATE 2.01% TEXAS A&M 2.01% OREGON 1.49% GRAND CANYON 1.12% JAMES MADISON 0.94% YALE 0.49% DUQUESNE 0.24% OAKLAND

36.61% HOUSTON *26.00% UCONN 19.23% ARIZONA *17.99% PURDUE 15.30% IOWA STATE 10.51% TENNESSEE 8.69% DUKE 8.13% ALABAMA 7.69% ILLINOIS 6.95% NORTH CAROLINA 6.72% MARQUETTE 6.72% BAYLOR 5.86% CREIGHTON 4.51% GONZAGA 3.58% MICHIGAN STATE 2.52% KANSAS 2.48% SAN DIEGO STATE 2.01% COLORADO 1.89% TEXAS 1.11% CLEMSON 0.93% NC STATE 0.79% DAYTON 0.74% NORTHWESTERN 0.72% WASHINGTON STATE 0.56% TEXAS A&M 0.50% UTAH STATE 0.44% OREGON 0.32% GRAND CANYON 0.24% JAMES MADISON 0.17% YALE 0.08% DUQUESNE 0.02% OAKLAND

24.38% HOUSTON *14.14% UCONN 10.17% PURDUE 10.04% ARIZONA 7.39% IOWA STATE 5.30% TENNESSEE 4.01% DUKE 3.28% ALABAMA 2.95% ILLINOIS 2.86% NORTH CAROLINA 2.72% MARQUETTE 2.70% BAYLOR 2.48% CREIGHTON 1.90% GONZAGA 1.26% MICHIGAN STATE 0.93% KANSAS 0.69% SAN DIEGO STATE 0.65% TEXAS 0.60% COLORADO 0.29% CLEMSON 0.20% NC STATE 0.20% DAYTON 0.17% NORTHWESTERN 0.16% WASHINGTON STATE 0.14% TEXAS A&M 0.13% UTAH STATE 0.10% OREGON 0.06% GRAND CANYON 0.05% JAMES MADISON 0.02% YALE 0.01% DUQUESNE 0.00% OAKLAND

Sweet Sixteen	Elite Eight	Final Four	Finals	Champion
86.69% HOUSTON 82.07% ILLINOIS 81.90% UCONN 80.32% PURDUE 78.23% ARIZONA 77.88% DUKE 76.94% IOWA STATE 75.30% ALABAMA 73.13% NC STATE 70.78% CREIGHTON 69.35% SAN DIEGO STATE 66.40% TENNESSEE 65.75% BAYLOR 61.46% MARQUETTE 56.51% NORTH CAROLINA 55.41% GONZAGA 44.59% KANSAS 43.49% MICHIGAN STATE 38.54% COLORADO 34.25% CLEMSON 33.60% TEXAS 30.65% YALE 29.22% OREGON 26.87% OAKLAND 24.70% GRAND CANYON 23.06% WASHINGTON STATE 22.12% JAMES MADISON 21.77% DAYTON 19.68% UTAH STATE 18.10% NORTHWESTERN 17.93% DUQUESNE 13.31% TEXAS A&M	66.05% UCONN 64.93% HOUSTON 53.58% PURDUE 52.69% ARIZONA 50.36% IOWA STATE 46.78% MARQUETTE 42.49% TENNESSEE 39.12% ALABAMA 37.83% ILLINOIS 33.45% CREIGHTON 32.26% NORTH CAROLINA 28.96% BAYLOR 27.36% DUKE 25.66% COLORADO 23.71% NC STATE 23.26% GONZAGA 22.11% MICHIGAN STATE 20.31% SAN DIEGO STATE 16.51% KANSAS 16.09% TEXAS 10.16% CLEMSON 8.88% NORTHWESTERN 8.82% WASHINGTON STATE 8.18% DAYTON 7.97% OREGON 6.65% UTAH STATE 6.50% GRAND CANYON 4.76% YALE 4.64% TEXAS A&M 3.85% OAKLAND 3.08% JAMES MADISON 2.98% DUQUESNE	53.06% HOUSTON 41.93% UCONN 34.05% PURDUE 34.05% ARIZONA 27.36% IOWA STATE 22.34% TENNESSEE 18.26% ALABAMA 17.78% DUKE 16.87% ILLINOIS 15.60% MARQUETTE 15.33% NORTH CAROLINA 15.17% BAYLOR 14.87% CREIGHTON 11.47% GONZAGA 9.13% MICHIGAN STATE 7.27% KANSAS 7.26% SAN DIEGO STATE 6.20% COLORADO 5.88% TEXAS 3.99% NC STATE 3.73% CLEMSON 2.84% DAYTON 2.63% NORTHWESTERN 2.52% WASHINGTON STATE 2.08% UTAH STATE 2.01% TEXAS A&M 2.01% OREGON 1.49% GRAND CANYON 1.12% JAMES MADISON 0.94% YALE 0.49% DUQUESNE 0.24% OAKLAND	36.61% HOUSTON 26.00% UCONN 19.23% ARIZONA 17.99% PURDUE 15.30% IOWA STATE 10.51% TENNESSEE 8.69% DUKE 8.13% ALABAMA 7.69% ILLINOIS 6.95% NORTH CAROLINA 6.72% MARQUETTE 6.72% BAYLOR 5.86% CREIGHTON 4.51% GONZAGA 3.58% MICHIGAN STATE 2.52% KANSAS 2.48% SAN DIEGO STATE 2.01% COLORADO 1.89% TEXAS 1.11% CLEMSON 0.93% NC STATE 0.79% DAYTON 0.74% NORTHWESTERN 0.72% WASHINGTON STATE 0.56% TEXAS A&M 0.50% UTAH STATE 0.44% OREGON 0.32% GRAND CANYON 0.24% JAMES MADISON 0.17% YALE 0.08% DUQUESNE 0.02% OAKLAND	24.38% HOUSTON *14.14% UCONN 10.17% PURDUE 10.04% ARIZONA 7.39% IOWA STATE 5.30% TENNESSEE 4.01% DUKE 3.28% ALABAMA 2.95% ILLINOIS 2.86% NORTH CAROLINA 2.72% MARQUETTE 2.70% BAYLOR 2.48% CREIGHTON 1.90% GONZAGA 1.26% MICHIGAN STATE 0.93% KANSAS 0.69% SAN DIEGO STATE 0.65% TEXAS 0.60% COLORADO 0.29% CLEMSON 0.20% NC STATE 0.20% DAYTON 0.17% NORTHWESTERN 0.16% WASHINGTON STATE 0.14% TEXAS A&M 0.13% UTAH STATE 0.10% OREGON 0.06% GRAND CANYON 0.05% JAMES MADISON 0.02% YALE 0.01% DUQUESNE 0.00% OAKLAND

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 20

Second Round Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion

*99.23% PURDUE *98.12% UCONN *98.00% NORTH CAROLINA *97.93% HOUSTON *96.74% ARIZONA *95.94% TENNESSEE *93.42% IOWA STATE *88.62% BAYLOR *88.51% ILLINOIS *87.64% MARQUETTE 86.74% KENTUCKY 86.42% AUBURN *85.61% DUKE *85.26% ALABAMA *84.30% CREIGHTON *82.21% GONZAGA 81.86% BYU *80.43% KANSAS *77.13% SAN DIEGO STATE 73.00% SAINT MARY'S 68.49% WISCONSIN 66.30% TEXAS TECH *60.11% TEXAS *59.14% MICHIGAN STATE 58.56% TCU *55.16% WASHINGTON STATE *54.52% OREGON 53.33% NEBRASKA 53.24% NEW MEXICO *52.30% DAYTON 52.08% FLORIDA ATLANTIC *50.31% COLORADO 49.69% FLORIDA *47.92% NORTHWESTERN 47.70% NEVADA *46.76% CLEMSON *46.67% TEXAS A&M 45.48% SOUTH CAROLINA 44.84% DRAKE *41.44% UTAH STATE 40.86% MISSISSIPPI STATE 39.89% COLORADO STATE *33.70% NC STATE *31.51% JAMES MADISON *27.00% GRAND CANYON 22.87% UAB 19.57% SAMFORD *18.14% DUQUESNE 17.79% MCNEESE 15.70% AKRON 14.74% CHARLESTON 14.39% VERMONT *13.58% YALE *13.26% OAKLAND 12.36% WESTERN KENTUCKY 11.49% MOREHEAD STATE 11.38% COLGATE 6.58% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 4.06% SAINT PETER'S 3.26% LONG BEACH STATE 2.07% LONGWOOD 2.00% WAGNER 1.88% STETSON 0.77% GRAMBLING

*83.70% HOUSTON *79.37% UCONN *76.70% ARIZONA *76.65% PURDUE *73.72% IOWA STATE *66.87% TENNESSEE 65.01% AUBURN *61.39% CREIGHTON *59.71% NORTH CAROLINA 57.96% BAYLOR *57.34% DUKE *53.72% MARQUETTE *51.44% ALABAMA 50.87% KENTUCKY *50.42% ILLINOIS *49.19% GONZAGA 43.58% BYU 41.68% KANSAS 37.29% SAINT MARY'S 34.34% TEXAS TECH 30.06% WISCONSIN *26.90% SAN DIEGO STATE 25.88% MICHIGAN STATE 22.16% COLORADO 21.84% NEW MEXICO 21.75% FLORIDA 21.71% TEXAS 19.04% OREGON *17.82% CLEMSON 15.20% TCU 14.55% WASHINGTON STATE 14.34% MISSISSIPPI STATE 14.15% SOUTH CAROLINA 12.33% DAYTON *12.26% NC STATE 10.98% FLORIDA ATLANTIC 10.96% COLORADO STATE 10.47% NEVADA 10.14% DRAKE 9.43% NORTHWESTERN 8.99% NEBRASKA 8.64% JAMES MADISON 8.12% UTAH STATE 7.91% GRAND CANYON 6.97% TEXAS A&M 5.42% AKRON 4.83% YALE 4.74% MCNEESE 4.40% SAMFORD 4.04% DUQUESNE 3.95% VERMONT 3.36% CHARLESTON 3.26% UAB 2.53% OAKLAND 2.38% COLGATE 2.37% WESTERN KENTUCKY 1.97% MOREHEAD STATE 1.59% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.50% LONG BEACH STATE 0.46% SAINT PETER'S 0.34% LONGWOOD 0.22% STETSON 0.08% WAGNER 0.04% GRAMBLING

63.35% HOUSTON 53.17% ARIZONA *52.83% PURDUE *50.48% UCONN 46.45% IOWA STATE *44.47% TENNESSEE 33.36% AUBURN 32.80% NORTH CAROLINA 31.23% MARQUETTE 29.98% CREIGHTON *27.88% ALABAMA 26.51% KENTUCKY 25.66% BAYLOR *24.04% ILLINOIS *20.94% DUKE 20.51% GONZAGA 20.27% BYU 18.61% SAINT MARY'S 16.79% TEXAS TECH 15.79% KANSAS 12.37% MICHIGAN STATE 11.11% TEXAS 10.44% COLORADO 10.18% FLORIDA 8.49% SAN DIEGO STATE 8.05% WISCONSIN 6.90% NEW MEXICO 6.70% TCU 5.59% MISSISSIPPI STATE 5.43% OREGON * 5.16% CLEMSON 5.03% WASHINGTON STATE 4.89% DAYTON 4.56% COLORADO STATE * 4.05% NC STATE 3.92% NEVADA 3.58% FLORIDA ATLANTIC 3.53% SOUTH CAROLINA 3.49% NEBRASKA 3.05% DRAKE 2.93% UTAH STATE 2.91% NORTHWESTERN 2.49% TEXAS A&M 2.15% GRAND CANYON 1.26% JAMES MADISON 0.86% AKRON 0.78% YALE 0.71% DUQUESNE 0.66% MCNEESE 0.59% CHARLESTON 0.58% SAMFORD 0.42% WESTERN KENTUCKY 0.40% UAB 0.38% OAKLAND 0.38% VERMONT 0.25% COLGATE 0.24% MOREHEAD STATE 0.21% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.05% SAINT PETER'S 0.05% LONG BEACH STATE 0.04% LONGWOOD 0.01% STETSON 0.00% WAGNER 0.00% GRAMBLING

50.00% HOUSTON 34.67% ARIZONA *34.27% PURDUE *31.50% UCONN 24.02% IOWA STATE 23.25% TENNESSEE 19.11% AUBURN 15.63% NORTH CAROLINA 13.42% BAYLOR 13.40% CREIGHTON *13.27% ALABAMA 12.80% DUKE 10.93% MARQUETTE 10.33% GONZAGA 9.94% ILLINOIS 8.42% KENTUCKY 8.14% BYU 8.09% SAINT MARY'S 7.32% KANSAS 5.03% MICHIGAN STATE 4.89% TEXAS TECH 4.06% TEXAS 3.98% WISCONSIN 3.09% SAN DIEGO STATE 2.70% COLORADO 2.67% TCU 2.64% NEW MEXICO 2.61% FLORIDA 1.82% CLEMSON 1.81% MISSISSIPPI STATE 1.70% DAYTON 1.46% NEBRASKA 1.37% OREGON 1.29% NEVADA 1.27% COLORADO STATE 1.26% WASHINGTON STATE 1.10% FLORIDA ATLANTIC 0.97% TEXAS A&M 0.94% UTAH STATE 0.84% NORTHWESTERN 0.77% SOUTH CAROLINA * 0.70% NC STATE 0.65% DRAKE 0.49% GRAND CANYON 0.39% JAMES MADISON 0.15% YALE 0.13% MCNEESE 0.12% AKRON 0.10% SAMFORD 0.09% DUQUESNE 0.09% CHARLESTON 0.08% VERMONT 0.06% UAB 0.03% COLGATE 0.03% WESTERN KENTUCKY 0.03% OAKLAND 0.02% MOREHEAD STATE 0.02% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% LONGWOOD 0.00% LONG BEACH STATE 0.00% SAINT PETER'S 0.00% STETSON 0.00% WAGNER 0.00% GRAMBLING

34.23% HOUSTON 19.54% ARIZONA *19.27% UCONN *18.72% PURDUE 13.57% IOWA STATE 11.16% TENNESSEE 10.70% AUBURN 6.94% NORTH CAROLINA 6.24% DUKE 5.89% ALABAMA 5.81% BAYLOR 5.46% CREIGHTON 4.74% MARQUETTE 4.57% ILLINOIS 4.18% GONZAGA 3.64% BYU 3.35% KENTUCKY 3.25% SAINT MARY'S 2.69% KANSAS 1.88% MICHIGAN STATE 1.79% TEXAS TECH 1.49% WISCONSIN 1.34% TEXAS 1.09% SAN DIEGO STATE 0.89% COLORADO 0.85% FLORIDA 0.83% TCU 0.80% NEW MEXICO 0.53% MISSISSIPPI STATE 0.50% CLEMSON 0.46% DAYTON 0.45% NEBRASKA 0.36% WASHINGTON STATE 0.33% NEVADA 0.32% FLORIDA ATLANTIC 0.32% COLORADO STATE 0.31% OREGON 0.27% TEXAS A&M 0.23% NORTHWESTERN 0.23% UTAH STATE 0.16% NC STATE 0.16% DRAKE 0.15% SOUTH CAROLINA 0.10% GRAND CANYON 0.09% JAMES MADISON 0.03% YALE 0.02% MCNEESE 0.01% DUQUESNE 0.01% AKRON 0.01% SAMFORD 0.01% VERMONT 0.01% CHARLESTON 0.01% UAB 0.00% WESTERN KENTUCKY 0.00% COLGATE 0.00% OAKLAND 0.00% MOREHEAD STATE 0.00% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% LONGWOOD 0.00% LONG BEACH STATE 0.00% SAINT PETER'S 0.00% STETSON 0.00% WAGNER 0.00% GRAMBLING

22.55% HOUSTON 10.64% PURDUE *10.53% UCONN 10.51% ARIZONA 6.78% IOWA STATE 5.56% TENNESSEE 5.30% AUBURN 2.92% NORTH CAROLINA 2.85% DUKE 2.48% ALABAMA 2.39% BAYLOR 2.30% CREIGHTON 1.91% MARQUETTE 1.82% ILLINOIS 1.75% GONZAGA 1.41% BYU 1.24% SAINT MARY'S 1.23% KENTUCKY 1.02% KANSAS 0.67% MICHIGAN STATE 0.61% TEXAS TECH 0.51% WISCONSIN 0.46% TEXAS 0.32% SAN DIEGO STATE 0.27% COLORADO 0.26% TCU 0.25% FLORIDA 0.23% NEW MEXICO 0.15% MISSISSIPPI STATE 0.13% CLEMSON 0.12% NEBRASKA 0.12% DAYTON 0.09% WASHINGTON STATE 0.08% COLORADO STATE 0.08% FLORIDA ATLANTIC 0.08% NEVADA 0.07% OREGON 0.07% TEXAS A&M 0.06% UTAH STATE 0.05% NORTHWESTERN 0.03% NC STATE 0.03% DRAKE 0.03% SOUTH CAROLINA 0.02% GRAND CANYON 0.02% JAMES MADISON 0.00% YALE 0.00% MCNEESE 0.00% DUQUESNE 0.00% AKRON 0.00% SAMFORD 0.00% VERMONT 0.00% CHARLESTON 0.00% UAB 0.00% WESTERN KENTUCKY 0.00% COLGATE 0.00% OAKLAND 0.00% MOREHEAD STATE 0.00% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% LONGWOOD 0.00% LONG BEACH STATE 0.00% SAINT PETER'S 0.00% STETSON 0.00% WAGNER 0.00% GRAMBLING

Second Round	Sweet Sixteen	Elite Eight	Final Four	Finals	Champion
99.23% PURDUE 98.12% UCONN 98.00% NORTH CAROLINA 97.93% HOUSTON 96.74% ARIZONA 95.94% TENNESSEE 93.42% IOWA STATE 88.62% BAYLOR 88.51% ILLINOIS 87.64% MARQUETTE 86.74% KENTUCKY 86.42% AUBURN 85.61% DUKE 85.26% ALABAMA 84.30% CREIGHTON 82.21% GONZAGA 81.86% BYU 80.43% KANSAS 77.13% SAN DIEGO STATE 73.00% SAINT MARY'S 68.49% WISCONSIN 66.30% TEXAS TECH 60.11% TEXAS 59.14% MICHIGAN STATE 58.56% TCU 55.16% WASHINGTON STATE 54.52% OREGON 53.33% NEBRASKA 53.24% NEW MEXICO 52.30% DAYTON 52.08% FLORIDA ATLANTIC 50.31% COLORADO 49.69% FLORIDA 47.92% NORTHWESTERN 47.70% NEVADA 46.76% CLEMSON 46.67% TEXAS A&M 45.48% SOUTH CAROLINA 44.84% DRAKE 41.44% UTAH STATE 40.86% MISSISSIPPI STATE 39.89% COLORADO STATE 33.70% NC STATE 31.51% JAMES MADISON 27.00% GRAND CANYON 22.87% UAB 19.57% SAMFORD 18.14% DUQUESNE 17.79% MCNEESE 15.70% AKRON 14.74% CHARLESTON 14.39% VERMONT 13.58% YALE 13.26% OAKLAND 12.36% WESTERN KENTUCKY 11.49% MOREHEAD STATE 11.38% COLGATE 6.58% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 4.06% SAINT PETER'S 3.26% LONG BEACH STATE 2.07% LONGWOOD 2.00% WAGNER 1.88% STETSON 0.77% GRAMBLING	83.70% HOUSTON 79.37% UCONN 76.70% ARIZONA 76.65% PURDUE 73.72% IOWA STATE 66.87% TENNESSEE 65.01% AUBURN 61.39% CREIGHTON 59.71% NORTH CAROLINA 57.96% BAYLOR 57.34% DUKE 53.72% MARQUETTE 51.44% ALABAMA 50.87% KENTUCKY 50.42% ILLINOIS 49.19% GONZAGA 43.58% BYU 41.68% KANSAS 37.29% SAINT MARY'S 34.34% TEXAS TECH 30.06% WISCONSIN 26.90% SAN DIEGO STATE 25.88% MICHIGAN STATE 22.16% COLORADO 21.84% NEW MEXICO 21.75% FLORIDA 21.71% TEXAS 19.04% OREGON 17.82% CLEMSON 15.20% TCU 14.55% WASHINGTON STATE 14.34% MISSISSIPPI STATE 14.15% SOUTH CAROLINA 12.33% DAYTON 12.26% NC STATE 10.98% FLORIDA ATLANTIC 10.96% COLORADO STATE 10.47% NEVADA 10.14% DRAKE 9.43% NORTHWESTERN 8.99% NEBRASKA 8.64% JAMES MADISON 8.12% UTAH STATE 7.91% GRAND CANYON 6.97% TEXAS A&M 5.42% AKRON 4.83% YALE 4.74% MCNEESE 4.40% SAMFORD 4.04% DUQUESNE 3.95% VERMONT 3.36% CHARLESTON 3.26% UAB 2.53% OAKLAND 2.38% COLGATE 2.37% WESTERN KENTUCKY 1.97% MOREHEAD STATE 1.59% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.50% LONG BEACH STATE 0.46% SAINT PETER'S 0.34% LONGWOOD 0.22% STETSON 0.08% WAGNER 0.04% GRAMBLING	63.35% HOUSTON 53.17% ARIZONA 52.83% PURDUE 50.48% UCONN 46.45% IOWA STATE 44.47% TENNESSEE 33.36% AUBURN 32.80% NORTH CAROLINA 31.23% MARQUETTE 29.98% CREIGHTON 27.88% ALABAMA 26.51% KENTUCKY 25.66% BAYLOR 24.04% ILLINOIS 20.94% DUKE 20.51% GONZAGA 20.27% BYU 18.61% SAINT MARY'S 16.79% TEXAS TECH 15.79% KANSAS 12.37% MICHIGAN STATE 11.11% TEXAS 10.44% COLORADO 10.18% FLORIDA 8.49% SAN DIEGO STATE 8.05% WISCONSIN 6.90% NEW MEXICO 6.70% TCU 5.59% MISSISSIPPI STATE 5.43% OREGON * 5.16% CLEMSON 5.03% WASHINGTON STATE 4.89% DAYTON 4.56% COLORADO STATE * 4.05% NC STATE 3.92% NEVADA 3.58% FLORIDA ATLANTIC 3.53% SOUTH CAROLINA 3.49% NEBRASKA 3.05% DRAKE 2.93% UTAH STATE 2.91% NORTHWESTERN 2.49% TEXAS A&M 2.15% GRAND CANYON 1.26% JAMES MADISON 0.86% AKRON 0.78% YALE 0.71% DUQUESNE 0.66% MCNEESE 0.59% CHARLESTON 0.58% SAMFORD 0.42% WESTERN KENTUCKY 0.40% UAB 0.38% OAKLAND 0.38% VERMONT 0.25% COLGATE 0.24% MOREHEAD STATE 0.21% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.05% SAINT PETER'S 0.05% LONG BEACH STATE 0.04% LONGWOOD 0.01% STETSON 0.00% WAGNER 0.00% GRAMBLING	50.00% HOUSTON 34.67% ARIZONA 34.27% PURDUE 31.50% UCONN 24.02% IOWA STATE 23.25% TENNESSEE 19.11% AUBURN 15.63% NORTH CAROLINA 13.42% BAYLOR 13.40% CREIGHTON 13.27% ALABAMA 12.80% DUKE 10.93% MARQUETTE 10.33% GONZAGA 9.94% ILLINOIS 8.42% KENTUCKY 8.14% BYU 8.09% SAINT MARY'S 7.32% KANSAS 5.03% MICHIGAN STATE 4.89% TEXAS TECH 4.06% TEXAS 3.98% WISCONSIN 3.09% SAN DIEGO STATE 2.70% COLORADO 2.67% TCU 2.64% NEW MEXICO 2.61% FLORIDA 1.82% CLEMSON 1.81% MISSISSIPPI STATE 1.70% DAYTON 1.46% NEBRASKA 1.37% OREGON 1.29% NEVADA 1.27% COLORADO STATE 1.26% WASHINGTON STATE 1.10% FLORIDA ATLANTIC 0.97% TEXAS A&M 0.94% UTAH STATE 0.84% NORTHWESTERN 0.77% SOUTH CAROLINA 0.70% NC STATE 0.65% DRAKE 0.49% GRAND CANYON 0.39% JAMES MADISON 0.15% YALE 0.13% MCNEESE 0.12% AKRON 0.10% SAMFORD 0.09% DUQUESNE 0.09% CHARLESTON 0.08% VERMONT 0.06% UAB 0.03% COLGATE 0.03% WESTERN KENTUCKY 0.03% OAKLAND 0.02% MOREHEAD STATE 0.02% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% LONGWOOD 0.00% LONG BEACH STATE 0.00% SAINT PETER'S 0.00% STETSON 0.00% WAGNER 0.00% GRAMBLING	34.23% HOUSTON 19.54% ARIZONA 19.27% UCONN 18.72% PURDUE 13.57% IOWA STATE 11.16% TENNESSEE 10.70% AUBURN 6.94% NORTH CAROLINA 6.24% DUKE 5.89% ALABAMA 5.81% BAYLOR 5.46% CREIGHTON 4.74% MARQUETTE 4.57% ILLINOIS 4.18% GONZAGA 3.64% BYU 3.35% KENTUCKY 3.25% SAINT MARY'S 2.69% KANSAS 1.88% MICHIGAN STATE 1.79% TEXAS TECH 1.49% WISCONSIN 1.34% TEXAS 1.09% SAN DIEGO STATE 0.89% COLORADO 0.85% FLORIDA 0.83% TCU 0.80% NEW MEXICO 0.53% MISSISSIPPI STATE 0.50% CLEMSON 0.46% DAYTON 0.45% NEBRASKA 0.36% WASHINGTON STATE 0.33% NEVADA 0.32% FLORIDA ATLANTIC 0.32% COLORADO STATE 0.31% OREGON 0.27% TEXAS A&M 0.23% NORTHWESTERN 0.23% UTAH STATE 0.16% NC STATE 0.16% DRAKE 0.15% SOUTH CAROLINA 0.10% GRAND CANYON 0.09% JAMES MADISON 0.03% YALE 0.02% MCNEESE 0.01% DUQUESNE 0.01% AKRON 0.01% SAMFORD 0.01% VERMONT 0.01% CHARLESTON 0.01% UAB 0.00% WESTERN KENTUCKY 0.00% COLGATE 0.00% OAKLAND 0.00% MOREHEAD STATE 0.00% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% LONGWOOD 0.00% LONG BEACH STATE 0.00% SAINT PETER'S 0.00% STETSON 0.00% WAGNER 0.00% GRAMBLING	22.55% HOUSTON 10.64% PURDUE *10.53% UCONN 10.51% ARIZONA 6.78% IOWA STATE 5.56% TENNESSEE 5.30% AUBURN 2.92% NORTH CAROLINA 2.85% DUKE 2.48% ALABAMA 2.39% BAYLOR 2.30% CREIGHTON 1.91% MARQUETTE 1.82% ILLINOIS 1.75% GONZAGA 1.41% BYU 1.24% SAINT MARY'S 1.23% KENTUCKY 1.02% KANSAS 0.67% MICHIGAN STATE 0.61% TEXAS TECH 0.51% WISCONSIN 0.46% TEXAS 0.32% SAN DIEGO STATE 0.27% COLORADO 0.26% TCU 0.25% FLORIDA 0.23% NEW MEXICO 0.15% MISSISSIPPI STATE 0.13% CLEMSON 0.12% NEBRASKA 0.12% DAYTON 0.09% WASHINGTON STATE 0.08% COLORADO STATE 0.08% FLORIDA ATLANTIC 0.08% NEVADA 0.07% OREGON 0.07% TEXAS A&M 0.06% UTAH STATE 0.05% NORTHWESTERN 0.03% NC STATE 0.03% DRAKE 0.03% SOUTH CAROLINA 0.02% GRAND CANYON 0.02% JAMES MADISON 0.00% YALE 0.00% MCNEESE 0.00% DUQUESNE 0.00% AKRON 0.00% SAMFORD 0.00% VERMONT 0.00% CHARLESTON 0.00% UAB 0.00% WESTERN KENTUCKY 0.00% COLGATE 0.00% OAKLAND 0.00% MOREHEAD STATE 0.00% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% LONGWOOD 0.00% LONG BEACH STATE 0.00% SAINT PETER'S 0.00% STETSON 0.00% WAGNER 0.00% GRAMBLING

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 17

First Round Second Round Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion

66.02% MONTANA STATE *54.76% COLORADO 52.60% HOWARD *51.69% COLORADO STATE 48.31% VIRGINIA *47.40% WAGNER 45.24% BOISE STATE *33.98% GRAMBLING

*98.39% PURDUE *98.14% UCONN *97.95% HOUSTON *97.87% NORTH CAROLINA *96.72% ARIZONA *95.93% TENNESSEE *93.42% IOWA STATE *88.70% BAYLOR *88.48% ILLINOIS *87.84% MARQUETTE 86.75% KENTUCKY 86.38% AUBURN *85.64% DUKE *85.29% ALABAMA *84.50% CREIGHTON *82.08% GONZAGA 82.02% BYU *80.63% KANSAS *77.04% SAN DIEGO STATE 72.97% SAINT MARY'S 68.56% WISCONSIN 66.42% TEXAS TECH *63.56% TEXAS *59.13% MICHIGAN STATE 59.00% TCU *55.21% WASHINGTON STATE *54.42% OREGON 53.22% NEBRASKA 52.88% NEW MEXICO *52.61% DAYTON 52.55% FLORIDA 51.96% FLORIDA ATLANTIC *48.04% NORTHWESTERN 47.39% NEVADA *47.12% CLEMSON *46.78% TEXAS A&M 45.58% SOUTH CAROLINA 44.79% DRAKE *41.00% UTAH STATE 40.87% MISSISSIPPI STATE *33.58% NC STATE *31.44% JAMES MADISON *27.16% COLORADO *27.03% GRAND CANYON 22.96% UAB 20.29% BOISE STATE 19.37% SAMFORD 19.24% COLORADO STATE *17.98% DUQUESNE 17.92% MCNEESE 17.20% VIRGINIA 15.50% AKRON 14.71% CHARLESTON 14.36% VERMONT *13.62% YALE *13.25% OAKLAND 12.16% WESTERN KENTUCKY 11.52% MOREHEAD STATE 11.30% COLGATE 6.58% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 4.07% SAINT PETER'S 3.28% LONG BEACH STATE 2.05% LONGWOOD 1.86% STETSON 1.37% MONTANA STATE 1.20% HOWARD 0.93% WAGNER 0.24% GRAMBLING

*83.80% HOUSTON *79.69% UCONN *76.76% ARIZONA *76.01% PURDUE *73.86% IOWA STATE *67.37% TENNESSEE 65.17% AUBURN *61.80% CREIGHTON *59.70% NORTH CAROLINA 58.30% BAYLOR *57.31% DUKE *55.25% MARQUETTE *51.65% ALABAMA 50.71% KENTUCKY *50.25% ILLINOIS *48.86% GONZAGA 43.80% BYU 42.02% KANSAS 37.11% SAINT MARY'S 34.54% TEXAS TECH 30.14% WISCONSIN *26.68% SAN DIEGO STATE 25.87% MICHIGAN STATE 23.08% TEXAS 22.78% FLORIDA 21.44% NEW MEXICO 18.80% OREGON *17.88% CLEMSON 15.68% TCU 14.48% WASHINGTON STATE 14.35% MISSISSIPPI STATE 14.05% SOUTH CAROLINA 12.43% DAYTON *12.24% NC STATE 11.67% COLORADO 10.77% FLORIDA ATLANTIC 10.31% NEVADA 10.06% DRAKE 9.33% NORTHWESTERN 8.90% NEBRASKA 8.62% JAMES MADISON 8.16% UTAH STATE 7.87% GRAND CANYON 7.84% BOISE STATE 6.96% TEXAS A&M 5.35% AKRON 4.90% COLORADO STATE 4.89% YALE 4.76% MCNEESE 4.35% SAMFORD 4.17% VIRGINIA 3.99% DUQUESNE 3.93% VERMONT 3.37% CHARLESTON 3.25% UAB 2.51% OAKLAND 2.45% WESTERN KENTUCKY 2.38% COLGATE 1.96% MOREHEAD STATE 1.60% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.50% LONG BEACH STATE 0.48% SAINT PETER'S 0.33% LONGWOOD 0.22% STETSON 0.14% MONTANA STATE 0.05% HOWARD 0.04% WAGNER 0.01% GRAMBLING

63.53% HOUSTON 53.11% ARIZONA *52.42% PURDUE *51.00% UCONN 46.52% IOWA STATE *44.62% TENNESSEE 33.16% AUBURN 32.86% NORTH CAROLINA 32.28% MARQUETTE 30.34% CREIGHTON *28.01% ALABAMA 26.48% KENTUCKY 25.94% BAYLOR *23.93% ILLINOIS *20.82% DUKE 20.41% BYU 20.41% GONZAGA 18.43% SAINT MARY'S 17.01% TEXAS TECH 16.07% KANSAS 12.37% MICHIGAN STATE 11.80% TEXAS 10.65% FLORIDA 8.26% SAN DIEGO STATE 8.04% WISCONSIN 6.93% TCU 6.72% NEW MEXICO 5.60% MISSISSIPPI STATE 5.41% COLORADO 5.35% OREGON * 5.19% CLEMSON 4.98% WASHINGTON STATE 4.91% DAYTON * 4.07% NC STATE 3.83% NEVADA 3.51% FLORIDA ATLANTIC 3.51% SOUTH CAROLINA 3.45% NEBRASKA 3.28% BOISE STATE 3.00% DRAKE 2.92% UTAH STATE 2.89% NORTHWESTERN 2.49% TEXAS A&M 2.12% GRAND CANYON 1.91% COLORADO STATE 1.56% VIRGINIA 1.25% JAMES MADISON 0.85% AKRON 0.78% YALE 0.70% DUQUESNE 0.67% MCNEESE 0.59% CHARLESTON 0.58% SAMFORD 0.44% WESTERN KENTUCKY 0.39% UAB 0.38% OAKLAND 0.37% VERMONT 0.25% COLGATE 0.24% MOREHEAD STATE 0.21% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.05% SAINT PETER'S 0.05% LONG BEACH STATE 0.03% LONGWOOD 0.01% STETSON 0.01% MONTANA STATE 0.00% HOWARD 0.00% WAGNER 0.00% GRAMBLING

50.17% HOUSTON 34.58% ARIZONA *33.92% PURDUE *31.97% UCONN 23.97% IOWA STATE 23.37% TENNESSEE 18.96% AUBURN 15.68% NORTH CAROLINA 13.68% CREIGHTON 13.60% BAYLOR *13.35% ALABAMA 12.71% DUKE 11.37% MARQUETTE 10.22% GONZAGA 9.84% ILLINOIS 8.37% KENTUCKY 8.19% BYU 7.98% SAINT MARY'S 7.45% KANSAS 5.04% MICHIGAN STATE 4.96% TEXAS TECH 4.34% TEXAS 3.98% WISCONSIN 2.98% SAN DIEGO STATE 2.76% TCU 2.72% FLORIDA 2.55% NEW MEXICO 1.83% CLEMSON 1.82% MISSISSIPPI STATE 1.71% DAYTON 1.45% NEBRASKA 1.37% COLORADO 1.35% OREGON 1.24% NEVADA 1.24% WASHINGTON STATE 1.07% FLORIDA ATLANTIC 0.97% TEXAS A&M 0.92% UTAH STATE 0.83% NORTHWESTERN 0.77% SOUTH CAROLINA 0.72% BOISE STATE * 0.71% NC STATE 0.63% DRAKE 0.49% COLORADO STATE 0.48% GRAND CANYON 0.39% JAMES MADISON 0.38% VIRGINIA 0.15% YALE 0.13% MCNEESE 0.12% AKRON 0.10% SAMFORD 0.09% DUQUESNE 0.09% CHARLESTON 0.08% VERMONT 0.06% UAB 0.03% WESTERN KENTUCKY 0.03% COLGATE 0.03% OAKLAND 0.02% MOREHEAD STATE 0.02% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% LONGWOOD 0.00% LONG BEACH STATE 0.00% SAINT PETER'S 0.00% STETSON 0.00% MONTANA STATE 0.00% HOWARD 0.00% WAGNER 0.00% GRAMBLING

34.43% HOUSTON *19.67% UCONN 19.39% ARIZONA *18.47% PURDUE 13.56% IOWA STATE 11.16% TENNESSEE 10.61% AUBURN 6.94% NORTH CAROLINA 6.19% DUKE 5.90% ALABAMA 5.88% BAYLOR 5.58% CREIGHTON 4.97% MARQUETTE 4.53% ILLINOIS 4.10% GONZAGA 3.68% BYU 3.33% KENTUCKY 3.18% SAINT MARY'S 2.74% KANSAS 1.87% MICHIGAN STATE 1.83% TEXAS TECH 1.49% WISCONSIN 1.44% TEXAS 1.04% SAN DIEGO STATE 0.89% FLORIDA 0.85% TCU 0.76% NEW MEXICO 0.53% MISSISSIPPI STATE 0.50% CLEMSON 0.46% DAYTON 0.44% NEBRASKA 0.44% COLORADO 0.35% WASHINGTON STATE 0.31% FLORIDA ATLANTIC 0.31% NEVADA 0.30% OREGON 0.27% TEXAS A&M 0.23% NORTHWESTERN 0.22% UTAH STATE 0.20% BOISE STATE 0.16% NC STATE 0.15% DRAKE 0.15% SOUTH CAROLINA 0.11% COLORADO STATE 0.09% GRAND CANYON 0.08% JAMES MADISON 0.08% VIRGINIA 0.03% YALE 0.02% MCNEESE 0.01% DUQUESNE 0.01% AKRON 0.01% SAMFORD 0.01% VERMONT 0.01% CHARLESTON 0.01% UAB 0.00% WESTERN KENTUCKY 0.00% COLGATE 0.00% OAKLAND 0.00% MOREHEAD STATE 0.00% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% LONGWOOD 0.00% LONG BEACH STATE 0.00% SAINT PETER'S 0.00% STETSON 0.00% MONTANA STATE 0.00% HOWARD 0.00% WAGNER 0.00% GRAMBLING

22.71% HOUSTON *10.79% UCONN 10.47% PURDUE 10.39% ARIZONA 6.76% IOWA STATE 5.55% TENNESSEE 5.23% AUBURN 2.92% NORTH CAROLINA 2.82% DUKE 2.48% ALABAMA 2.41% BAYLOR 2.36% CREIGHTON 2.02% MARQUETTE 1.79% ILLINOIS 1.71% GONZAGA 1.42% BYU 1.22% KENTUCKY 1.20% SAINT MARY'S 1.04% KANSAS 0.66% MICHIGAN STATE 0.62% TEXAS TECH 0.51% WISCONSIN 0.49% TEXAS 0.30% SAN DIEGO STATE 0.27% TCU 0.26% FLORIDA 0.21% NEW MEXICO 0.15% MISSISSIPPI STATE 0.13% COLORADO 0.13% CLEMSON 0.12% NEBRASKA 0.12% DAYTON 0.08% WASHINGTON STATE 0.08% FLORIDA ATLANTIC 0.07% NEVADA 0.07% OREGON 0.07% TEXAS A&M 0.05% UTAH STATE 0.05% NORTHWESTERN 0.05% BOISE STATE 0.03% NC STATE 0.03% DRAKE 0.03% SOUTH CAROLINA 0.03% COLORADO STATE 0.02% VIRGINIA 0.02% GRAND CANYON 0.02% JAMES MADISON 0.00% YALE 0.00% MCNEESE 0.00% DUQUESNE 0.00% AKRON 0.00% SAMFORD 0.00% VERMONT 0.00% CHARLESTON 0.00% UAB 0.00% WESTERN KENTUCKY 0.00% COLGATE 0.00% OAKLAND 0.00% MOREHEAD STATE 0.00% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% LONGWOOD 0.00% LONG BEACH STATE 0.00% SAINT PETER'S 0.00% STETSON 0.00% MONTANA STATE 0.00% HOWARD 0.00% WAGNER 0.00% GRAMBLING

First Round	Second Round	Sweet Sixteen	Elite Eight	Final Four	Finals	Champion
66.02% MONTANA STATE 54.76% COLORADO 52.60% HOWARD 51.69% COLORADO STATE 48.31% VIRGINIA 47.40% WAGNER 45.24% BOISE STATE 33.98% GRAMBLING	98.39% PURDUE 98.14% UCONN 97.95% HOUSTON 97.87% NORTH CAROLINA 96.72% ARIZONA 95.93% TENNESSEE 93.42% IOWA STATE 88.70% BAYLOR 88.48% ILLINOIS 87.84% MARQUETTE 86.75% KENTUCKY 86.38% AUBURN 85.64% DUKE 85.29% ALABAMA 84.50% CREIGHTON 82.08% GONZAGA 82.02% BYU 80.63% KANSAS 77.04% SAN DIEGO STATE 72.97% SAINT MARY'S 68.56% WISCONSIN 66.42% TEXAS TECH 63.56% TEXAS 59.13% MICHIGAN STATE 59.00% TCU 55.21% WASHINGTON STATE 54.42% OREGON 53.22% NEBRASKA 52.88% NEW MEXICO 52.61% DAYTON 52.55% FLORIDA 51.96% FLORIDA ATLANTIC 48.04% NORTHWESTERN 47.39% NEVADA 47.12% CLEMSON 46.78% TEXAS A&M 45.58% SOUTH CAROLINA 44.79% DRAKE 41.00% UTAH STATE 40.87% MISSISSIPPI STATE 33.58% NC STATE 31.44% JAMES MADISON 27.16% COLORADO 27.03% GRAND CANYON 22.96% UAB 20.29% BOISE STATE 19.37% SAMFORD 19.24% COLORADO STATE 17.98% DUQUESNE 17.92% MCNEESE 17.20% VIRGINIA 15.50% AKRON 14.71% CHARLESTON 14.36% VERMONT 13.62% YALE 13.25% OAKLAND 12.16% WESTERN KENTUCKY 11.52% MOREHEAD STATE 11.30% COLGATE 6.58% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 4.07% SAINT PETER'S 3.28% LONG BEACH STATE 2.05% LONGWOOD 1.86% STETSON 1.37% MONTANA STATE 1.20% HOWARD 0.93% WAGNER 0.24% GRAMBLING	83.80% HOUSTON 79.69% UCONN 76.76% ARIZONA 76.01% PURDUE 73.86% IOWA STATE 67.37% TENNESSEE 65.17% AUBURN 61.80% CREIGHTON 59.70% NORTH CAROLINA 58.30% BAYLOR 57.31% DUKE 55.25% MARQUETTE 51.65% ALABAMA 50.71% KENTUCKY 50.25% ILLINOIS 48.86% GONZAGA 43.80% BYU 42.02% KANSAS 37.11% SAINT MARY'S 34.54% TEXAS TECH 30.14% WISCONSIN 26.68% SAN DIEGO STATE 25.87% MICHIGAN STATE 23.08% TEXAS 22.78% FLORIDA 21.44% NEW MEXICO 18.80% OREGON 17.88% CLEMSON 15.68% TCU 14.48% WASHINGTON STATE 14.35% MISSISSIPPI STATE 14.05% SOUTH CAROLINA 12.43% DAYTON 12.24% NC STATE 11.67% COLORADO 10.77% FLORIDA ATLANTIC 10.31% NEVADA 10.06% DRAKE 9.33% NORTHWESTERN 8.90% NEBRASKA 8.62% JAMES MADISON 8.16% UTAH STATE 7.87% GRAND CANYON 7.84% BOISE STATE 6.96% TEXAS A&M 5.35% AKRON 4.90% COLORADO STATE 4.89% YALE 4.76% MCNEESE 4.35% SAMFORD 4.17% VIRGINIA 3.99% DUQUESNE 3.93% VERMONT 3.37% CHARLESTON 3.25% UAB 2.51% OAKLAND 2.45% WESTERN KENTUCKY 2.38% COLGATE 1.96% MOREHEAD STATE 1.60% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.50% LONG BEACH STATE 0.48% SAINT PETER'S 0.33% LONGWOOD 0.22% STETSON 0.14% MONTANA STATE 0.05% HOWARD 0.04% WAGNER 0.01% GRAMBLING	63.53% HOUSTON 53.11% ARIZONA 52.42% PURDUE 51.00% UCONN 46.52% IOWA STATE 44.62% TENNESSEE 33.16% AUBURN 32.86% NORTH CAROLINA 32.28% MARQUETTE 30.34% CREIGHTON 28.01% ALABAMA 26.48% KENTUCKY 25.94% BAYLOR 23.93% ILLINOIS 20.82% DUKE 20.41% BYU 20.41% GONZAGA 18.43% SAINT MARY'S 17.01% TEXAS TECH 16.07% KANSAS 12.37% MICHIGAN STATE 11.80% TEXAS 10.65% FLORIDA 8.26% SAN DIEGO STATE 8.04% WISCONSIN 6.93% TCU 6.72% NEW MEXICO 5.60% MISSISSIPPI STATE 5.41% COLORADO 5.35% OREGON * 5.19% CLEMSON 4.98% WASHINGTON STATE 4.91% DAYTON * 4.07% NC STATE 3.83% NEVADA 3.51% FLORIDA ATLANTIC 3.51% SOUTH CAROLINA 3.45% NEBRASKA 3.28% BOISE STATE 3.00% DRAKE 2.92% UTAH STATE 2.89% NORTHWESTERN 2.49% TEXAS A&M 2.12% GRAND CANYON 1.91% COLORADO STATE 1.56% VIRGINIA 1.25% JAMES MADISON 0.85% AKRON 0.78% YALE 0.70% DUQUESNE 0.67% MCNEESE 0.59% CHARLESTON 0.58% SAMFORD 0.44% WESTERN KENTUCKY 0.39% UAB 0.38% OAKLAND 0.37% VERMONT 0.25% COLGATE 0.24% MOREHEAD STATE 0.21% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.05% SAINT PETER'S 0.05% LONG BEACH STATE 0.03% LONGWOOD 0.01% STETSON 0.01% MONTANA STATE 0.00% HOWARD 0.00% WAGNER 0.00% GRAMBLING	50.17% HOUSTON 34.58% ARIZONA 33.92% PURDUE 31.97% UCONN 23.97% IOWA STATE 23.37% TENNESSEE 18.96% AUBURN 15.68% NORTH CAROLINA 13.68% CREIGHTON 13.60% BAYLOR 13.35% ALABAMA 12.71% DUKE 11.37% MARQUETTE 10.22% GONZAGA 9.84% ILLINOIS 8.37% KENTUCKY 8.19% BYU 7.98% SAINT MARY'S 7.45% KANSAS 5.04% MICHIGAN STATE 4.96% TEXAS TECH 4.34% TEXAS 3.98% WISCONSIN 2.98% SAN DIEGO STATE 2.76% TCU 2.72% FLORIDA 2.55% NEW MEXICO 1.83% CLEMSON 1.82% MISSISSIPPI STATE 1.71% DAYTON 1.45% NEBRASKA 1.37% COLORADO 1.35% OREGON 1.24% NEVADA 1.24% WASHINGTON STATE 1.07% FLORIDA ATLANTIC 0.97% TEXAS A&M 0.92% UTAH STATE 0.83% NORTHWESTERN 0.77% SOUTH CAROLINA 0.72% BOISE STATE 0.71% NC STATE 0.63% DRAKE 0.49% COLORADO STATE 0.48% GRAND CANYON 0.39% JAMES MADISON 0.38% VIRGINIA 0.15% YALE 0.13% MCNEESE 0.12% AKRON 0.10% SAMFORD 0.09% DUQUESNE 0.09% CHARLESTON 0.08% VERMONT 0.06% UAB 0.03% WESTERN KENTUCKY 0.03% COLGATE 0.03% OAKLAND 0.02% MOREHEAD STATE 0.02% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% LONGWOOD 0.00% LONG BEACH STATE 0.00% SAINT PETER'S 0.00% STETSON 0.00% MONTANA STATE 0.00% HOWARD 0.00% WAGNER 0.00% GRAMBLING	34.43% HOUSTON 19.67% UCONN 19.39% ARIZONA 18.47% PURDUE 13.56% IOWA STATE 11.16% TENNESSEE 10.61% AUBURN 6.94% NORTH CAROLINA 6.19% DUKE 5.90% ALABAMA 5.88% BAYLOR 5.58% CREIGHTON 4.97% MARQUETTE 4.53% ILLINOIS 4.10% GONZAGA 3.68% BYU 3.33% KENTUCKY 3.18% SAINT MARY'S 2.74% KANSAS 1.87% MICHIGAN STATE 1.83% TEXAS TECH 1.49% WISCONSIN 1.44% TEXAS 1.04% SAN DIEGO STATE 0.89% FLORIDA 0.85% TCU 0.76% NEW MEXICO 0.53% MISSISSIPPI STATE 0.50% CLEMSON 0.46% DAYTON 0.44% NEBRASKA 0.44% COLORADO 0.35% WASHINGTON STATE 0.31% FLORIDA ATLANTIC 0.31% NEVADA 0.30% OREGON 0.27% TEXAS A&M 0.23% NORTHWESTERN 0.22% UTAH STATE 0.20% BOISE STATE 0.16% NC STATE 0.15% DRAKE 0.15% SOUTH CAROLINA 0.11% COLORADO STATE 0.09% GRAND CANYON 0.08% JAMES MADISON 0.08% VIRGINIA 0.03% YALE 0.02% MCNEESE 0.01% DUQUESNE 0.01% AKRON 0.01% SAMFORD 0.01% VERMONT 0.01% CHARLESTON 0.01% UAB 0.00% WESTERN KENTUCKY 0.00% COLGATE 0.00% OAKLAND 0.00% MOREHEAD STATE 0.00% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% LONGWOOD 0.00% LONG BEACH STATE 0.00% SAINT PETER'S 0.00% STETSON 0.00% MONTANA STATE 0.00% HOWARD 0.00% WAGNER 0.00% GRAMBLING	22.71% HOUSTON *10.79% UCONN 10.47% PURDUE 10.39% ARIZONA 6.76% IOWA STATE 5.55% TENNESSEE 5.23% AUBURN 2.92% NORTH CAROLINA 2.82% DUKE 2.48% ALABAMA 2.41% BAYLOR 2.36% CREIGHTON 2.02% MARQUETTE 1.79% ILLINOIS 1.71% GONZAGA 1.42% BYU 1.22% KENTUCKY 1.20% SAINT MARY'S 1.04% KANSAS 0.66% MICHIGAN STATE 0.62% TEXAS TECH 0.51% WISCONSIN 0.49% TEXAS 0.30% SAN DIEGO STATE 0.27% TCU 0.26% FLORIDA 0.21% NEW MEXICO 0.15% MISSISSIPPI STATE 0.13% COLORADO 0.13% CLEMSON 0.12% NEBRASKA 0.12% DAYTON 0.08% WASHINGTON STATE 0.08% FLORIDA ATLANTIC 0.07% NEVADA 0.07% OREGON 0.07% TEXAS A&M 0.05% UTAH STATE 0.05% NORTHWESTERN 0.05% BOISE STATE 0.03% NC STATE 0.03% DRAKE 0.03% SOUTH CAROLINA 0.03% COLORADO STATE 0.02% VIRGINIA 0.02% GRAND CANYON 0.02% JAMES MADISON 0.00% YALE 0.00% MCNEESE 0.00% DUQUESNE 0.00% AKRON 0.00% SAMFORD 0.00% VERMONT 0.00% CHARLESTON 0.00% UAB 0.00% WESTERN KENTUCKY 0.00% COLGATE 0.00% OAKLAND 0.00% MOREHEAD STATE 0.00% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% LONGWOOD 0.00% LONG BEACH STATE 0.00% SAINT PETER'S 0.00% STETSON 0.00% MONTANA STATE 0.00% HOWARD 0.00% WAGNER 0.00% GRAMBLING

Note: asterisk denotes team advanced

Selection Notes

As noted in previous seasons, the selections this year largely followed my standard and blended pseudopoll rankings. The pseudopoll correctly predicted 34 of 36 at-large teams, while the standard rankings correctly predicted 33. The one "miss" in both cases was that the computer rankings would have selected Oklahoma and Indiana State over Boise State and Texas A&M. In fact, the NCAA's own NET ranking would have also left Texas A&M out of the tournament, as would have my predictive rankings. It's somewhat unclear what the selection committee saw in Texas A&M. By comparison, my predictive rankings selected 28 of the 36 at-large teams and the NET rankings selected 30.

When it came to seedings, the pseudopoll did the the best overall, with 30 of 68 teams predicted at the correct seed and 53 within one. None of the other rankings predicted more than 26 seeds correctly. A few teams may have some gripes about their seeding: Auburn and Nevada could have easily been seeded two spots (or more) higher based on multiple ranking algorithms.

Prediction Notes

Heading into the tournament, an interesting metric is the relative parity at the top. Top does not mean the #1 seeds, but rather the teams with the best chances of winning. Here is a comparison of the number of teams as a function of likelihood of winning, vs. season.

Season	5-10%	10-15%	15-20%	20-25%	≥25%	Winner
2014-2015	2	3	0	0	1	7.9%
2015-2016	4	1	1	0	0	5.0%
2016-2017	2	2	1	0	0	13.2%
2017-2018	4	1	2	0	0	15.7%
2018-2019	2	2	2	0	0	19.9%
2020-2021+	3	2	0	1	0	12.0%
2021-2022	6	0	0	1	0	16.3%
2022-2023	4	1	1	0	0	4.2%
2023-2024	3	3	0	1	0	TBD

In comparison with previous seasons, this season has is tied with the fewest teams with a 15% chance or greater of winning it all. While Houston (22.7%) is the clear favorite relative to any other team, the field has about a nearly 80% chance.

+ 2020-2021 tournament predictions less precise due to COVID impacts

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Note: if you use any of the facts, equations, or mathematical principles introduced here, you must give me credit.