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DEL Time: 15:13
 
Request For: College Football
Request Title: Players leaving early for draft
Description
Currently it feels like 8-10 players leave early for the draft each season. At this point if we want to bring realism to the sim I think there should be more players entering the draft.
There was something like 120-140 players with eligibility remaining that entered this past seasons NFL Draft. I'm not suggesting having that high of a number, but something 30+ players would suffice for the time being.
It could bring another element to recruiting, and bring another challenge of the same teams remaining at the top of tier 1.

Submitted Aug 4 09:46:37 2019 by Christopher Hero
Coaches In Favor of Change: Christopher Hero, Keith Copeland, Michael Scarn
Coaches Opposed to Change: none

Category: Enhancement
Status: Declined (last updated Dec 30 13:59:25 2019 )
Priority: Declined
Admin Notes
With some time to research this, here are outcomes for the 18 players who left CCEL early this season, ranked by draft position:
1. WR Brittian (Oklahoma St): training squad
2. QB Scott (Kansas St): backup
3. OL Pollard (Florida St): backup
4. QB Marley (Rutgers): training squad
6. WR Unruh (Louisville): starter
7. OLB Daley (Indiana): starter
9. CB Vaughn (LSU): backup
14. TB Lane (Auburn): starter
17. ILB Johnson (Stanford): backup
19. QB McCray (LSU): training squad
21. CB McCloud (Vanderbilt): backup
22. FB Holland (Louisville): backup
35. P Farr (Virginia Tech): starter
39. QB Clark (Notre Dame): training squad
46. OL Peters (Louisville): cut
50. SF Olson (Kansas St): training squad
91. ILB Fisher (Colorado): training squad
123. SF Spann (Arkansas): starter
.
So, on the one hand, players who left early make up the bulk of the top ten picks, and all but one have contracts. However, only 28% (5/18) are starting in CEL, and 61% (11/18) are on CEL rosters.
.
Doing the same exercise for CBEL/BEL, where 16 players left early:
1. SF Whitaker (UNLV): training squad
3. SG Campbell (Missouri): training squad
4. SG Wright (FIU): backup
5. PF Miller (Nebraska): training squad
8. PG Gorman (Georgetown): cut
11. C Wynn (Tennessee): cut
13. PG Lamb (Virginia Tech): backup
15. C Furlow (Utah State): cut
22. PG Penland (NC State): training squad
27. C Bryant (LSU): training squad
30. PF Polk (FIU): training squad
46. PG Vasquez (Richmond): 3rd string
52. PF Hawkins (Utah State): training squad
56. C Walls (Colorado): cut
70. PF Berry (Rhode Island): cut
-- C Mashia (Grand Canyon): undrafted, not signed
.
Here, only about half of the top picks came from players who left early, and one player who left early went undrafted and was never picked up. Additionally, not one of these players is currently starting, and players who left early are twice as likely to be unsigned (6/16, 38%) than they are to be on a BEL roster (3/16, 19%).
.
Interestingly, looking at age distributions of much larger numbers of starters (BEL's 156 players with 24+ minutes per game, and the CEL players with downs played in the top 22*32=704), I think the difference between the success of players leaving early is due to small number randomness rather than systematic. The average age of a BEL starter is 28.9, and in CEL is also 28.9. Quartiles in BEL are 25, 28.5, and 32; in CEL they are 25, 29, 33.
.
With all this in mind, it's hard to imagine that more players should be leaving early, given with the current standard there is about a 50/50 chance of them playing in the "majors" (14 out of 34) and only about an 80% (27/34) chance of being employed. A looser standard would only make those numbers worse.


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