Playing Time Belief

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DEL Time: 03:10

Request For: College All Sports
Request Title: Playing Time Belief
Description
Hi - There have been numerous forum posts about this but I'll try and summarize here.
Playing time belief is extremely difficult and problematic to use.
Among other things there are issues getting anyone to believe a promise:
* Getting a PG to believe a PT promise when there are better frontcount players on the roster who would NOT play their position
* Having elite players routinely go to smaller schools with a promise of PT, that would rarely if ever happen in real life
* If it truly is a 'belief' in the coach telling the truth or not, then we should be tracking if coaches break those promises and that should be what impacts the 'belief'.
.
I've been recruiting at Wake Forest for 20+ seasons now and I've only gotten 3-4 full believes in PT and most seasons only can get 1 highly doubts. And thats with submitted formatted commands against 50+ top recruits every season. Again there are numerous forum posts with ideas and ways to improve this but I wanted to call this out as a talking point

Category: New Feature
Status: Completed (last updated Jan 10 19:13:49 2020 )
Priority: Top Priority

Admin Notes
The playing time promise belief algorithm has been modified for all sports. The primary change for all sports generally opts toward belief of the promise, when previously the algorithm only opted toward belief if the player was clearly the best at the position.
For basketball and hockey, an additional change was made to reduce the likelihood of a player ignoring a promise because one or two players are better than him at multiple positions.

Submitted Dec 2 09:55:16 2019 by Coach Shers
Coaches In Favor of Change: Coach Shers, Stephen Thompson, Rob Larocque
Coaches Opposed to Change: Bill Edwards

Comments
Stephen Thompson: It is indeed very hard to get a player to believe a PT promise if one is a top CBEL team. Looking at the number of PT promises for CBEL blue bloods: Virginia Tech (0), Louisville (1), Wake Forest (1), Iowa (0), George Washington (0), Kansas (1), Utah State (0), UNLV (2), UCLA (1), Colorado (1), Missouri (0). In 11 teams, that's a total of 7 PT promises. In contrast, in CCEL Notre Dame (6), Florida St (5), LSU (5), Washington (8), Virginia Tech (4), Indiana (8), Louisville (6) ... the top teams of CCEL are all built on PT promises. Why are the models so different?

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