Dolphin Ratings - College Football

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall I-A I-AA II III NAIA KCAC GAC NESCAC

Full Ranking

                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Harding                 14  1  0 627 204  1.044    1  2.172    1  1.828    1  1.799    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 14.230    1  1.679    1  1.920
Southern Arkansas        7  2  0 274 173 -0.072    2  0.785    2  0.492    2  0.191    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 11.503    5  0.127    2  0.255
Henderson St             6  3  0 282 202 -0.007    3  0.493    3  0.245    3  0.179    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 10.932    2  0.302    4  0.056
Arkansas Tech            6  4  0 244 222 -0.057    4  0.254    4  0.015    6 -0.053    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 10.419    6 -0.280    3  0.173
Ouachita Baptist         5  4  0 271 213 -0.010    5  0.195    5 -0.059    4  0.109    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 10.384    3  0.281    7 -0.063
SW Oklahoma St           5  4  0 267 225 -0.185    6  0.099    6 -0.172    5  0.086    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 10.177    4  0.230    6 -0.057
SE Oklahoma St           5  5  0 231 218 -0.374    7 -0.159    7 -0.374    7 -0.292    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  9.807    8 -0.600    5  0.016
East Central OK          4  6  0 242 331 -0.459    8 -0.446    8 -0.587    8 -0.675    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  9.272    7 -0.425    9 -0.925
Arkansas-Monticello      2  7  0 125 352 -0.742    9 -0.854    9 -0.998   12 -1.436    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  8.320   12 -1.506   12 -1.365
Southern Nazarene        2  7  0 169 272 -0.697   10 -1.180   10 -1.195    9 -0.881    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  8.159    9 -0.990    8 -0.773
TEAM                     W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NW Oklahoma St           2  7  0 141 322 -0.889   11 -1.191   11 -1.207   11 -1.311    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  7.987   11 -1.426   11 -1.195
Oklahoma Baptist         1  8  0 166 296 -0.592   12 -1.352   12 -1.409   10 -1.032    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  7.700   10 -1.001   10 -1.062


Great American Conference: strength=-0.350 (#1)
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Harding                 14  1  0 627 204  1.044    1  2.172    1  1.828    1  1.799    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 14.230    1  1.679    1  1.920
Southern Arkansas        7  2  0 274 173 -0.072    2  0.785    2  0.492    2  0.191    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 11.503    5  0.127    2  0.255
Henderson St             6  3  0 282 202 -0.007    3  0.493    3  0.245    3  0.179    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 10.932    2  0.302    4  0.056
Arkansas Tech            6  4  0 244 222 -0.057    4  0.254    4  0.015    6 -0.053    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 10.419    6 -0.280    3  0.173
Ouachita Baptist         5  4  0 271 213 -0.010    5  0.195    5 -0.059    4  0.109    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 10.384    3  0.281    7 -0.063
SW Oklahoma St           5  4  0 267 225 -0.185    6  0.099    6 -0.172    5  0.086    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 10.177    4  0.230    6 -0.057
SE Oklahoma St           5  5  0 231 218 -0.374    7 -0.159    7 -0.374    7 -0.292    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  9.807    8 -0.600    5  0.016
East Central OK          4  6  0 242 331 -0.459    8 -0.446    8 -0.587    8 -0.675    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  9.272    7 -0.425    9 -0.925
Arkansas-Monticello      2  7  0 125 352 -0.742    9 -0.854    9 -0.998   12 -1.436    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  8.320   12 -1.506   12 -1.365
Southern Nazarene        2  7  0 169 272 -0.697   10 -1.180   10 -1.195    9 -0.881    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  8.159    9 -0.990    8 -0.773
NW Oklahoma St           2  7  0 141 322 -0.889   11 -1.191   11 -1.207   11 -1.311    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  7.987   11 -1.426   11 -1.195
Oklahoma Baptist         1  8  0 166 296 -0.592   12 -1.352   12 -1.409   10 -1.032    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  7.700   10 -1.001   10 -1.062

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                                                W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
Great American Conference                                59  58   0 0.504    1 -0.350

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.131 points in main ratings
     0.025 points in improved RPI
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Tue Jan 20 21:07:53 2026

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