Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             33  4  0 2817 2229  0.167    1  1.474    1  1.159    1  1.127    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 22.756    7  0.726    1  1.528
Ottawa ON               29  6  0 2716 2299  0.166    2  1.269    2  0.960    2  0.698    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 22.056    4  0.774    3  0.622
UBC                     33  6  0 3283 2868 -0.107    3  1.082    4  0.838    5  0.525    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 21.564    1  0.990   11  0.060
Brandon                 35  6  0 3393 3125 -0.106    4  1.062    3  0.841    7  0.351    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 21.393    3  0.961   19 -0.259
Concordia QC            26  3  0 2386 2025 -0.176    5  1.032    5  0.825    4  0.649    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 21.583    2  0.981    5  0.316
York ON                 23 10  0 2579 2335  0.011    6  0.681    6  0.445    6  0.391    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 20.101    5  0.765   13  0.017
Victoria                26 10  0 2777 2479 -0.106    7  0.640    7  0.418    9  0.278    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 19.997   17  0.121    4  0.435
Windsor                 25 11  0 2723 2459 -0.017    8  0.596    8  0.394    8  0.280    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 19.925   13  0.314    7  0.247
Toronto                 23 10  0 2487 2087  0.062    9  0.584    9  0.382    3  0.690    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 20.045   11  0.451    2  0.929
Brock                   24 10  0 2702 2485 -0.158   10  0.517   10  0.330   10  0.105    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 19.487    9  0.567   21 -0.356
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
St Francis Xavier       22  7  0 2280 2025 -0.413   11  0.384   11  0.211   14  0.049    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 19.108   15  0.286   16 -0.188
McMaster                21 13  0 2630 2494 -0.115   12  0.269   12  0.095   12  0.097    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 18.613   10  0.505   20 -0.312
UCCB                    22 11  0 2448 2256 -0.300   13  0.265   13  0.092   11  0.105    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 18.620   19 -0.009    9  0.220
Queen's ON              22 14  0 2487 2389 -0.213   14  0.250   14  0.081   18 -0.153    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 18.463   32 -0.616    6  0.309
Saskatchewan            22 17  0 3062 2951 -0.094   15  0.178   15  0.032   13  0.053    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 18.362   14  0.299   17 -0.193
Alberta                 23 13  0 2911 2703 -0.289   16  0.166   16  0.020   15  0.001    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 18.261   12  0.371   22 -0.370
Laval                   18 14  0 2296 2276 -0.256   17  0.065   17 -0.098   19 -0.221    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 17.776   24 -0.346   14 -0.097
Acadia                  23 16  0 2718 2736 -0.401   18  0.016   18 -0.133   25 -0.386    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 17.430   34 -0.646   15 -0.126
Simon Fraser            17 14  0 2214 2180 -0.390   19 -0.110   19 -0.255   23 -0.314    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 17.056   38 -0.712   10  0.084
Calgary                 16 19  0 2833 2837 -0.143   20 -0.145   20 -0.278   16 -0.122    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 17.076    8  0.628   31 -0.873
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Guelph                  15 18  0 2199 2259 -0.188   21 -0.156   21 -0.285   20 -0.237    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 16.953   37 -0.704    8  0.230
Winnipeg                17 17  0 2582 2534 -0.312   22 -0.191   22 -0.323   21 -0.239    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 16.782   20 -0.090   23 -0.387
Western ON              14 16  0 2139 2050 -0.228   23 -0.241   23 -0.364   17 -0.127    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 16.743   22 -0.307   12  0.052
Regina                  14 21  0 2758 2762 -0.191   24 -0.369   24 -0.456   22 -0.305    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 16.334   16  0.147   30 -0.757
Laurentian              11 18  0 2046 2119 -0.184   25 -0.412   25 -0.493   26 -0.426    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 16.188   23 -0.336   24 -0.516
Trinity Western         12 18  0 2524 2662 -0.296   26 -0.424   26 -0.508   29 -0.567    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 16.069    6  0.736   42 -1.870
St Mary's NS            17 18  0 2560 2472 -0.483   27 -0.435   27 -0.526   24 -0.338    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 16.155   26 -0.416   18 -0.259
Manitoba                14 19  0 2447 2495 -0.389   28 -0.497   28 -0.569   27 -0.492    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 15.940   25 -0.409   27 -0.574
Laurier                 12 18  0 2091 2291 -0.447   29 -0.511   29 -0.572   35 -0.800    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 15.776   35 -0.659   34 -0.940
UPEI                    13 19  0 2314 2379 -0.424   30 -0.574   30 -0.638   30 -0.580    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 15.683   27 -0.461   29 -0.700
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
UQAM                     8 16  0 1765 1872 -0.319   31 -0.635   31 -0.698   31 -0.584    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 15.532   21 -0.183   35 -0.985
Bishop's                 8 14  0 1560 1618 -0.475   32 -0.710   32 -0.784   28 -0.563    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 15.232   31 -0.575   25 -0.550
Waterloo                10 21  0 2078 2249 -0.411   33 -0.778   33 -0.802   34 -0.788    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35 15.004   41 -0.991   28 -0.584
Lethbridge U.           10 25  0 2598 2771 -0.285   34 -0.791   34 -0.815   33 -0.675    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 15.018   28 -0.464   32 -0.887
McGill                   9 22  0 2137 2319 -0.291   35 -0.796   35 -0.820   32 -0.605    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34 15.007   33 -0.637   26 -0.573
Dalhousie               13 20  0 2326 2505 -0.687   36 -0.827   36 -0.851   38 -1.003    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36 14.579   39 -0.941   36 -1.066
Fraser Valley           12 21  0 2521 2708 -0.657   37 -0.886   37 -0.913   36 -0.917    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37 14.372   29 -0.483   39 -1.351
Ryerson                 10 24  0 2277 2555 -0.568   38 -0.966   38 -1.001   37 -0.928    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38 14.116   40 -0.950   33 -0.905
UNB                      7 23  0 2173 2445 -0.661   39 -1.244   39 -1.253   40 -1.090    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39 13.157   30 -0.544   41 -1.636
Memorial                 6 23  0 2093 2324 -0.653   40 -1.314   40 -1.344   39 -1.068    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40 12.904   36 -0.664   40 -1.472
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Thompson Rivers          3 29  0 2537 2924 -0.577   41 -1.670   41 -1.699   41 -1.151    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41 11.520   18  0.017   43 -2.319
Lakehead                 1 31  0 1939 2483 -0.512   42 -1.751   43 -1.807   42 -1.406    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42 11.123   42 -1.739   37 -1.072
RMC                      3 32  0 1979 2648 -0.774   43 -1.756   42 -1.798   43 -1.748    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43 11.042   43 -2.367   38 -1.129


CIS-Atlantic: strength=-0.570 (#4)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
St Francis Xavier       22  7  0 2280 2025 -0.413   11  0.384   11  0.211   14  0.049    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 19.108   15  0.286   16 -0.188
UCCB                    22 11  0 2448 2256 -0.300   13  0.265   13  0.092   11  0.105    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 18.620   19 -0.009    9  0.220
Acadia                  23 16  0 2718 2736 -0.401   18  0.016   18 -0.133   25 -0.386    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 17.430   34 -0.646   15 -0.126
St Mary's NS            17 18  0 2560 2472 -0.483   27 -0.435   27 -0.526   24 -0.338    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 16.155   26 -0.416   18 -0.259
UPEI                    13 19  0 2314 2379 -0.424   30 -0.574   30 -0.638   30 -0.580    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 15.683   27 -0.461   29 -0.700
Dalhousie               13 20  0 2326 2505 -0.687   36 -0.827   36 -0.851   38 -1.003    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36 14.579   39 -0.941   36 -1.066
UNB                      7 23  0 2173 2445 -0.661   39 -1.244   39 -1.253   40 -1.090    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39 13.157   30 -0.544   41 -1.636
Memorial                 6 23  0 2093 2324 -0.653   40 -1.314   40 -1.344   39 -1.068    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40 12.904   36 -0.664   40 -1.472

CIS-Canada West: strength=-0.252 (#2)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
UBC                     33  6  0 3283 2868 -0.107    3  1.082    4  0.838    5  0.525    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 21.564    1  0.990   11  0.060
Brandon                 35  6  0 3393 3125 -0.106    4  1.062    3  0.841    7  0.351    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 21.393    3  0.961   19 -0.259
Victoria                26 10  0 2777 2479 -0.106    7  0.640    7  0.418    9  0.278    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 19.997   17  0.121    4  0.435
Saskatchewan            22 17  0 3062 2951 -0.094   15  0.178   15  0.032   13  0.053    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 18.362   14  0.299   17 -0.193
Alberta                 23 13  0 2911 2703 -0.289   16  0.166   16  0.020   15  0.001    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 18.261   12  0.371   22 -0.370
Simon Fraser            17 14  0 2214 2180 -0.390   19 -0.110   19 -0.255   23 -0.314    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 17.056   38 -0.712   10  0.084
Calgary                 16 19  0 2833 2837 -0.143   20 -0.145   20 -0.278   16 -0.122    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 17.076    8  0.628   31 -0.873
Winnipeg                17 17  0 2582 2534 -0.312   22 -0.191   22 -0.323   21 -0.239    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 16.782   20 -0.090   23 -0.387
Regina                  14 21  0 2758 2762 -0.191   24 -0.369   24 -0.456   22 -0.305    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 16.334   16  0.147   30 -0.757
Trinity Western         12 18  0 2524 2662 -0.296   26 -0.424   26 -0.508   29 -0.567    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 16.069    6  0.736   42 -1.870
Manitoba                14 19  0 2447 2495 -0.389   28 -0.497   28 -0.569   27 -0.492    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 15.940   25 -0.409   27 -0.574
Lethbridge U.           10 25  0 2598 2771 -0.285   34 -0.791   34 -0.815   33 -0.675    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 15.018   28 -0.464   32 -0.887
Fraser Valley           12 21  0 2521 2708 -0.657   37 -0.886   37 -0.913   36 -0.917    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37 14.372   29 -0.483   39 -1.351
Thompson Rivers          3 29  0 2537 2924 -0.577   41 -1.670   41 -1.699   41 -1.151    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41 11.520   18  0.017   43 -2.319

CIS-OUA: strength=-0.152 (#1)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             33  4  0 2817 2229  0.167    1  1.474    1  1.159    1  1.127    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 22.756    7  0.726    1  1.528
Ottawa ON               29  6  0 2716 2299  0.166    2  1.269    2  0.960    2  0.698    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 22.056    4  0.774    3  0.622
York ON                 23 10  0 2579 2335  0.011    6  0.681    6  0.445    6  0.391    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 20.101    5  0.765   13  0.017
Windsor                 25 11  0 2723 2459 -0.017    8  0.596    8  0.394    8  0.280    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 19.925   13  0.314    7  0.247
Toronto                 23 10  0 2487 2087  0.062    9  0.584    9  0.382    3  0.690    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 20.045   11  0.451    2  0.929
Brock                   24 10  0 2702 2485 -0.158   10  0.517   10  0.330   10  0.105    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 19.487    9  0.567   21 -0.356
McMaster                21 13  0 2630 2494 -0.115   12  0.269   12  0.095   12  0.097    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 18.613   10  0.505   20 -0.312
Queen's ON              22 14  0 2487 2389 -0.213   14  0.250   14  0.081   18 -0.153    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 18.463   32 -0.616    6  0.309
Guelph                  15 18  0 2199 2259 -0.188   21 -0.156   21 -0.285   20 -0.237    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 16.953   37 -0.704    8  0.230
Western ON              14 16  0 2139 2050 -0.228   23 -0.241   23 -0.364   17 -0.127    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 16.743   22 -0.307   12  0.052
Laurentian              11 18  0 2046 2119 -0.184   25 -0.412   25 -0.493   26 -0.426    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 16.188   23 -0.336   24 -0.516
Laurier                 12 18  0 2091 2291 -0.447   29 -0.511   29 -0.572   35 -0.800    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 15.776   35 -0.659   34 -0.940
Waterloo                10 21  0 2078 2249 -0.411   33 -0.778   33 -0.802   34 -0.788    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35 15.004   41 -0.991   28 -0.584
Ryerson                 10 24  0 2277 2555 -0.568   38 -0.966   38 -1.001   37 -0.928    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38 14.116   40 -0.950   33 -0.905
Lakehead                 1 31  0 1939 2483 -0.512   42 -1.751   43 -1.807   42 -1.406    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42 11.123   42 -1.739   37 -1.072
RMC                      3 32  0 1979 2648 -0.774   43 -1.756   42 -1.798   43 -1.748    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43 11.042   43 -2.367   38 -1.129

QSSF: strength=-0.316 (#3)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Concordia QC            26  3  0 2386 2025 -0.176    5  1.032    5  0.825    4  0.649    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 21.583    2  0.981    5  0.316
Laval                   18 14  0 2296 2276 -0.256   17  0.065   17 -0.098   19 -0.221    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 17.776   24 -0.346   14 -0.097
UQAM                     8 16  0 1765 1872 -0.319   31 -0.635   31 -0.698   31 -0.584    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 15.532   21 -0.183   35 -0.985
Bishop's                 8 14  0 1560 1618 -0.475   32 -0.710   32 -0.784   28 -0.563    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 15.232   31 -0.575   25 -0.550
McGill                   9 22  0 2137 2319 -0.291   35 -0.796   35 -0.820   32 -0.605    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34 15.007   33 -0.637   26 -0.573

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                  W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
CIS-OUA                   276 256   0 0.519    1 -0.152
CIS-Canada West           254 235   0 0.519    2 -0.252
QSSF                       69  69   0 0.500    3 -0.316
CIS-Atlantic              123 137   0 0.473    4 -0.570

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.300 points in main ratings
     0.032 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 23 16:24:00 2019

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