Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             32  1  0 2723 2012 -0.452    1  1.355    1  1.048    1  0.812    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 20.570    3  0.621    1  1.002
Acadia                  26  5  0 2602 2075 -0.665    2  0.343    2  0.192    2  0.283    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 17.100    4  0.438    2  0.127
Brandon                 27  6  0 2846 2423 -0.619    3  0.342    3  0.191    3  0.150    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 17.043    1  0.789    8 -0.490
Calgary                 22  7  0 2555 2237 -0.582    4  0.192    4  0.045    5 -0.046    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 16.470    2  0.752   15 -0.844
UBC                     26  7  0 2754 2471 -0.803    5  0.100    5 -0.043    8 -0.330    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 16.077    6  0.242   16 -0.902
St Mary's NS            26 10  0 2902 2670 -0.727    6  0.073    6 -0.070   17 -0.588    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 15.882   13 -0.177   22 -0.999
Toronto                 24  8  0 2494 2212 -0.771    7  0.007    7 -0.134   15 -0.464    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 15.699   17 -0.391   11 -0.536
Alberta                 23 13  0 2918 2683 -0.423    8  0.005    8 -0.135    7 -0.247    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 15.791   10  0.032   10 -0.527
Windsor                 22  8  0 2417 2112 -0.681    9 -0.013    9 -0.151    6 -0.188    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 15.765    9  0.033    7 -0.409
Laval                   21  9  0 2432 2140 -0.595   10 -0.058   10 -0.175    4  0.125    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 15.724    5  0.318    4 -0.068
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Ottawa ON               22 10  0 2413 2157 -0.672   11 -0.113   11 -0.233   11 -0.360    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 15.406   19 -0.528    5 -0.191
Brock                   24 13  0 2889 2743 -0.643   12 -0.142   12 -0.256   14 -0.429    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 15.281   12 -0.117   13 -0.741
St Francis Xavier       21 10  0 2451 2216 -0.719   13 -0.165   13 -0.282   13 -0.416    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 15.220   15 -0.238   12 -0.595
UCCB                    20 10  0 2390 2120 -0.719   14 -0.270   14 -0.347    9 -0.356    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 14.987   14 -0.214    9 -0.497
Concordia QC            14  9  0 1792 1741 -0.701   15 -0.382   15 -0.455   20 -0.671    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 14.288   16 -0.368   20 -0.974
Queen's ON              18 10  0 2011 1843 -0.852   16 -0.434   16 -0.513   19 -0.662    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 14.128   34 -1.113    6 -0.211
Saskatchewan            19 13  0 2651 2457 -0.696   17 -0.460   17 -0.535   10 -0.359    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 14.126    8  0.113   14 -0.832
Western ON              20 13  0 2670 2492 -0.735   18 -0.482   19 -0.560   12 -0.409    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 14.045    7  0.135   17 -0.953
Guelph                  19 12  0 2389 2275 -0.832   19 -0.492   18 -0.555   21 -0.732    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 13.949   18 -0.505   18 -0.959
McGill                  13 12  0 1914 1961 -0.731   20 -0.575   20 -0.634   27 -1.102    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 13.546   21 -0.684   30 -1.521
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Victoria                17 16  0 2284 2223 -0.702   21 -0.623   21 -0.680   18 -0.591    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 13.533   37 -1.288    3  0.106
Dalhousie               16 15  0 2397 2370 -0.858   22 -0.773   22 -0.827   23 -0.909    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 12.879   20 -0.561   26 -1.258
Regina                  15 15  0 2283 2274 -0.845   23 -0.802   23 -0.843   22 -0.866    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 12.810   22 -0.765   19 -0.967
UQAM                     9 12  0 1646 1665 -0.636   24 -0.824   24 -0.865   16 -0.569    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 12.808   11 -0.041   23 -1.097
McMaster                14 17  0 2276 2333 -0.890   25 -0.938   25 -0.970   25 -0.994    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 12.408   25 -0.886   24 -1.101
Simon Fraser            13 17  0 2235 2259 -0.859   26 -1.046   26 -1.075   24 -0.941    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 12.083   26 -0.901   21 -0.980
Winnipeg                11 18  0 2158 2319 -0.849   27 -1.133   27 -1.139   31 -1.255    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 11.429   29 -0.967   32 -1.543
Fraser Valley           12 16  0 2087 2194 -0.992   28 -1.141   28 -1.147   28 -1.130    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 11.408   27 -0.938   28 -1.322
Lakehead                10 18  0 2085 2199 -0.976   29 -1.305   29 -1.336   32 -1.280    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 11.025   28 -0.939   33 -1.621
Bishop's                 6 18  0 1746 1877 -0.682   30 -1.312   30 -1.343   29 -1.152    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 11.072   31 -1.016   27 -1.288
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Laurier                 10 19  0 2138 2148 -1.008   31 -1.435   31 -1.477   26 -1.055    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 10.734   30 -0.986   25 -1.124
Trinity Western          7 18  0 1854 2171 -1.068   32 -1.468   32 -1.519   37 -1.811    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 10.278   35 -1.177   37 -2.445
Manitoba                 7 22  0 2117 2305 -0.893   33 -1.513   33 -1.571   30 -1.234    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 10.342   33 -1.085   29 -1.383
Waterloo                 7 21  0 1969 2177 -0.963   34 -1.540   34 -1.602   34 -1.441    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34 10.225   39 -1.359   31 -1.523
Ryerson                  8 21  0 2137 2357 -1.065   35 -1.586   35 -1.653   36 -1.570    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35  9.955   32 -1.065   36 -2.074
York ON                  8 22  0 2211 2390 -1.051   36 -1.601   36 -1.669   33 -1.336    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36  9.889   24 -0.870   35 -1.802
UPEI                     8 24  0 2298 2513 -1.083   37 -1.727   37 -1.801   35 -1.503    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37  9.464   38 -1.355   34 -1.651
Thompson Rivers          4 23  0 2086 2482 -1.150   38 -1.927   38 -2.046   39 -1.935    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38  8.569   23 -0.803   41 -3.067
Lethbridge U.            3 25  0 2050 2547 -0.965   39 -1.942   39 -2.061   38 -1.872    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39  8.525   36 -1.218   38 -2.527
Laurentian               5 23  0 1954 2421 -1.586   40 -2.071   40 -2.232   41 -2.351    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40  8.034   41 -1.801   40 -2.902
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
UNB                      4 24  0 1971 2399 -1.599   41 -2.358   41 -2.593   40 -2.224    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41  7.341   40 -1.774   39 -2.674
Memorial                 1 28  0 1793 2653 -1.513   42 -2.501   42 -2.795   42 -3.102    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  6.608   42 -2.936   42 -3.269
RMC                      0 26  0 1315 2309 -2.009   43 -2.936   43 -3.363   43 -4.000    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43  5.107   43 -4.613   43 -3.388


CIS-Atlantic: strength=-0.982 (#4)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Acadia                  26  5  0 2602 2075 -0.665    2  0.343    2  0.192    2  0.283    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 17.100    4  0.438    2  0.127
St Mary's NS            26 10  0 2902 2670 -0.727    6  0.073    6 -0.070   17 -0.588    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 15.882   13 -0.177   22 -0.999
St Francis Xavier       21 10  0 2451 2216 -0.719   13 -0.165   13 -0.282   13 -0.416    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 15.220   15 -0.238   12 -0.595
UCCB                    20 10  0 2390 2120 -0.719   14 -0.270   14 -0.347    9 -0.356    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 14.987   14 -0.214    9 -0.497
Dalhousie               16 15  0 2397 2370 -0.858   22 -0.773   22 -0.827   23 -0.909    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 12.879   20 -0.561   26 -1.258
UPEI                     8 24  0 2298 2513 -1.083   37 -1.727   37 -1.801   35 -1.503    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37  9.464   38 -1.355   34 -1.651
UNB                      4 24  0 1971 2399 -1.599   41 -2.358   41 -2.593   40 -2.224    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41  7.341   40 -1.774   39 -2.674
Memorial                 1 28  0 1793 2653 -1.513   42 -2.501   42 -2.795   42 -3.102    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  6.608   42 -2.936   42 -3.269

CIS-Canada West: strength=-0.883 (#2)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Brandon                 27  6  0 2846 2423 -0.619    3  0.342    3  0.191    3  0.150    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 17.043    1  0.789    8 -0.490
Calgary                 22  7  0 2555 2237 -0.582    4  0.192    4  0.045    5 -0.046    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 16.470    2  0.752   15 -0.844
UBC                     26  7  0 2754 2471 -0.803    5  0.100    5 -0.043    8 -0.330    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 16.077    6  0.242   16 -0.902
Alberta                 23 13  0 2918 2683 -0.423    8  0.005    8 -0.135    7 -0.247    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 15.791   10  0.032   10 -0.527
Saskatchewan            19 13  0 2651 2457 -0.696   17 -0.460   17 -0.535   10 -0.359    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 14.126    8  0.113   14 -0.832
Victoria                17 16  0 2284 2223 -0.702   21 -0.623   21 -0.680   18 -0.591    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 13.533   37 -1.288    3  0.106
Regina                  15 15  0 2283 2274 -0.845   23 -0.802   23 -0.843   22 -0.866    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 12.810   22 -0.765   19 -0.967
Simon Fraser            13 17  0 2235 2259 -0.859   26 -1.046   26 -1.075   24 -0.941    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 12.083   26 -0.901   21 -0.980
Winnipeg                11 18  0 2158 2319 -0.849   27 -1.133   27 -1.139   31 -1.255    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 11.429   29 -0.967   32 -1.543
Fraser Valley           12 16  0 2087 2194 -0.992   28 -1.141   28 -1.147   28 -1.130    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 11.408   27 -0.938   28 -1.322
Trinity Western          7 18  0 1854 2171 -1.068   32 -1.468   32 -1.519   37 -1.811    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 10.278   35 -1.177   37 -2.445
Manitoba                 7 22  0 2117 2305 -0.893   33 -1.513   33 -1.571   30 -1.234    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 10.342   33 -1.085   29 -1.383
Thompson Rivers          4 23  0 2086 2482 -1.150   38 -1.927   38 -2.046   39 -1.935    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38  8.569   23 -0.803   41 -3.067
Lethbridge U.            3 25  0 2050 2547 -0.965   39 -1.942   39 -2.061   38 -1.872    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39  8.525   36 -1.218   38 -2.527

CIS-OUA: strength=-0.925 (#3)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             32  1  0 2723 2012 -0.452    1  1.355    1  1.048    1  0.812    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 20.570    3  0.621    1  1.002
Toronto                 24  8  0 2494 2212 -0.771    7  0.007    7 -0.134   15 -0.464    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 15.699   17 -0.391   11 -0.536
Windsor                 22  8  0 2417 2112 -0.681    9 -0.013    9 -0.151    6 -0.188    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 15.765    9  0.033    7 -0.409
Ottawa ON               22 10  0 2413 2157 -0.672   11 -0.113   11 -0.233   11 -0.360    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 15.406   19 -0.528    5 -0.191
Brock                   24 13  0 2889 2743 -0.643   12 -0.142   12 -0.256   14 -0.429    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 15.281   12 -0.117   13 -0.741
Queen's ON              18 10  0 2011 1843 -0.852   16 -0.434   16 -0.513   19 -0.662    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 14.128   34 -1.113    6 -0.211
Western ON              20 13  0 2670 2492 -0.735   18 -0.482   19 -0.560   12 -0.409    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 14.045    7  0.135   17 -0.953
Guelph                  19 12  0 2389 2275 -0.832   19 -0.492   18 -0.555   21 -0.732    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 13.949   18 -0.505   18 -0.959
McMaster                14 17  0 2276 2333 -0.890   25 -0.938   25 -0.970   25 -0.994    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 12.408   25 -0.886   24 -1.101
Lakehead                10 18  0 2085 2199 -0.976   29 -1.305   29 -1.336   32 -1.280    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 11.025   28 -0.939   33 -1.621
Laurier                 10 19  0 2138 2148 -1.008   31 -1.435   31 -1.477   26 -1.055    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 10.734   30 -0.986   25 -1.124
Waterloo                 7 21  0 1969 2177 -0.963   34 -1.540   34 -1.602   34 -1.441    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34 10.225   39 -1.359   31 -1.523
Ryerson                  8 21  0 2137 2357 -1.065   35 -1.586   35 -1.653   36 -1.570    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35  9.955   32 -1.065   36 -2.074
York ON                  8 22  0 2211 2390 -1.051   36 -1.601   36 -1.669   33 -1.336    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36  9.889   24 -0.870   35 -1.802
Laurentian               5 23  0 1954 2421 -1.586   40 -2.071   40 -2.232   41 -2.351    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40  8.034   41 -1.801   40 -2.902
RMC                      0 26  0 1315 2309 -2.009   43 -2.936   43 -3.363   43 -4.000    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43  5.107   43 -4.613   43 -3.388

QSSF: strength=-0.640 (#1)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Laval                   21  9  0 2432 2140 -0.595   10 -0.058   10 -0.175    4  0.125    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 15.724    5  0.318    4 -0.068
Concordia QC            14  9  0 1792 1741 -0.701   15 -0.382   15 -0.455   20 -0.671    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 14.288   16 -0.368   20 -0.974
McGill                  13 12  0 1914 1961 -0.731   20 -0.575   20 -0.634   27 -1.102    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 13.546   21 -0.684   30 -1.521
UQAM                     9 12  0 1646 1665 -0.636   24 -0.824   24 -0.865   16 -0.569    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 12.808   11 -0.041   23 -1.097
Bishop's                 6 18  0 1746 1877 -0.682   30 -1.312   30 -1.343   29 -1.152    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 11.072   31 -1.016   27 -1.288

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                   W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
QSSF                        63  60   0 0.512    1 -0.640
CIS-Canada West            206 216   0 0.488    2 -0.883
CIS-OUA                    243 242   0 0.501    3 -0.925
CIS-Atlantic               122 126   0 0.492    4 -0.982

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.295 points in main ratings
     0.032 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 23 16:25:43 2019

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