Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Oakwood                  8 11 1489 1532 -0.509    1 -0.904    1 -0.931    1 -0.881    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 12.899    1 -0.160    1 -1.603
Miami-Middletown        22  5 2251 2139 -2.974    2 -1.359    2 -1.401    6 -2.640    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 10.073    4 -1.851   10 -3.429
Hesston                  2  2  283  272 -2.399    3 -2.513    3 -2.669    5 -2.639    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  7.056    9 -2.658    7 -2.621
Ohio St-Newark           5 10 1127 1269 -2.370    4 -2.817    4 -2.937    8 -2.777    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  6.214    7 -2.394    8 -3.161
IU East                  1  7  463  645 -1.628    5 -2.827    5 -2.952   10 -3.002    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  5.755   15 -3.494    3 -2.511
Concordia-St Louis       2 11  914 1274 -2.210    6 -2.993    6 -3.201   13 -3.385    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  5.252    6 -2.336   24 -4.435
Miami-Hamilton           1  9  671  908 -1.770    7 -3.042    7 -3.283   11 -3.064    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  5.300    8 -2.648   12 -3.479
Ohio U-Southern          2  6  621  703 -2.226    8 -3.047    8 -3.294    9 -2.894    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  5.361    5 -2.182   13 -3.607
Union NE                 5  8  906  941 -2.955    9 -3.080    9 -3.350   12 -3.105    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  5.183   13 -3.040    9 -3.170
Strayer                  0  7  497  666  0.213   10 -3.141   10 -3.441    2 -1.555    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  5.481    2 -0.588    4 -2.522
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SUNY-Purchase            4 15 1236 1605 -2.665   11 -3.150   11 -3.455   14 -3.509    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  4.962   14 -3.149   17 -3.870
Penn St-McKeesport       0 10  625  837 -0.235   12 -3.175   12 -3.511    3 -1.763    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  5.384    3 -1.784    2 -1.741
Ohio St-Lima             1  9  675  952 -2.400   13 -3.302   13 -3.722   22 -4.160    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  4.346   19 -3.887   23 -4.433
Penn St-New Kensington   0  7  443  643 -0.661   14 -3.355   14 -3.827    4 -2.602    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  4.770   10 -2.675    5 -2.529
Penn Tech                0  3  186  256 -1.021   15 -3.498   15 -4.006    7 -2.735    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  4.359   11 -2.879    6 -2.591
Penn St-Fayette          0  3  160  277 -1.042   16 -3.566   16 -4.129   19 -3.925    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  3.494   24 -4.413   11 -3.438
Penn St-Beaver           0  7  405  782  1.631   17 -3.634   18 -4.259   25 -4.534    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  2.775   23 -4.299   26 -4.768
Penn St-DuBois           0  3  167  276 -1.739   18 -3.636   17 -4.256   18 -3.883    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  3.114   22 -4.135   15 -3.630
East-West                0  4  253  404 -1.831   19 -3.669   19 -4.345   23 -4.186    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  2.789   17 -3.713   25 -4.659
Alexandria Tech          1  7  556  618 -3.332   20 -3.681   20 -4.366   16 -3.816    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  2.798   18 -3.767   16 -3.866
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Ohio U-Eastern           0  9  605  909 -2.346   21 -3.875   21 -4.732   21 -4.020    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  2.265   16 -3.643   22 -4.398
Webb Institute           0  1   52   72 -3.958   22 -3.876   22 -4.759   24 -4.527    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  2.081   28 -4.916   19 -4.138
Wright St-Lake           0  6  461  569 -2.630   23 -3.926   23 -4.882   15 -3.641    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  2.112   12 -2.935   21 -4.348
Sarah Lawrence           0  2  111  146 -3.667   24 -3.973   24 -4.993   26 -4.590    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  1.885   29 -4.946   20 -4.234
Ohio U-Chillicothe       0  6  424  518 -2.944   25 -3.979   25 -5.007   20 -4.007    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  1.926   20 -3.964   18 -4.049
Ohio U-Zanesville        0  7  433  700 -2.918   26 -3.982   26 -5.026   28 -4.760    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  1.692   26 -4.524   29 -4.996
Akron-Wayne              0  6  338  590 -3.204   27 -4.039   27 -5.192   33 -6.155    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  1.238   32 -6.393   34 -5.918
St Cloud Tech            0  5  324  419 -3.369   28 -4.046   28 -5.215   29 -4.776    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28  1.490   27 -4.674   27 -4.878
Ohio U-Lancaster         0  6  421  483 -3.124   29 -4.049   29 -5.227   17 -3.844    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  1.729   21 -4.076   14 -3.611
Shawnee Baptist          0  5  317  452 -3.438   30 -4.057   30 -5.253   27 -4.671    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  1.485   25 -4.433   28 -4.909
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Hampshire                0  4  162  338 -4.080   31 -4.165   31 -5.556   35 -7.018    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33  0.644   36 -8.094   35 -5.942
Eugene Bible             0  9  479  830 -3.597   32 -4.176   32 -5.594   32 -6.134    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  0.693   33 -6.447   33 -5.820
Albany Pharmacy          1  3  248  289 -5.346   33 -4.194   33 -5.681   31 -5.419    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31  1.050   31 -5.787   30 -5.051
Boston Baptist           0 12  768 1042 -4.248   34 -4.513   34 -6.284   30 -5.183    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34  0.369   30 -4.978   31 -5.387
Roanoke Bible            0 11  490 1048 -4.863   35 -4.576   35 -6.494   36 -7.095    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35  0.006   35 -7.778   36 -6.412
Patrick Henry            0  5  246  330 -5.522   36 -4.644   36 -6.725   34 -6.233    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36  0.000   34 -7.039   32 -5.427


Commonwealth CAC: strength=-3.352 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Penn St-McKeesport       0 10  625  837 -0.235   12 -3.175   12 -3.511    3 -1.763    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  5.384    3 -1.784    2 -1.741
Penn St-New Kensington   0  7  443  643 -0.661   14 -3.355   14 -3.827    4 -2.602    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  4.770   10 -2.675    5 -2.529
Penn St-Fayette          0  3  160  277 -1.042   16 -3.566   16 -4.129   19 -3.925    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  3.494   24 -4.413   11 -3.438
Penn St-Beaver           0  7  405  782  1.631   17 -3.634   18 -4.259   25 -4.534    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  2.775   23 -4.299   26 -4.768
Penn St-DuBois           0  3  167  276 -1.739   18 -3.636   17 -4.256   18 -3.883    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  3.114   22 -4.135   15 -3.630

Ohio Regional Campus: strength=-3.558 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Miami-Middletown        22  5 2251 2139 -2.974    2 -1.359    2 -1.401    6 -2.640    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 10.073    4 -1.851   10 -3.429
Cincinnati-Clermont     20 12 2712 2492 -2.510      -2.303      -2.400      -2.068      0.0000      0.0000       7.842      -1.352      -2.784
Ohio St-Newark           5 10 1127 1269 -2.370    4 -2.817    4 -2.937    8 -2.777    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  6.214    7 -2.394    8 -3.161
Miami-Hamilton           1  9  671  908 -1.770    7 -3.042    7 -3.283   11 -3.064    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  5.300    8 -2.648   12 -3.479
Ohio U-Southern          2  6  621  703 -2.226    8 -3.047    8 -3.294    9 -2.894    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  5.361    5 -2.182   13 -3.607
Ohio St-Marion           5 13 1180 1664 -3.015      -3.063      -3.319      -3.734      0.0000      0.0000       5.056      -3.236      -4.232
Ohio St-Lima             1  9  675  952 -2.400   13 -3.302   13 -3.722   22 -4.160    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  4.346   19 -3.887   23 -4.433
Ohio U-Eastern           0  9  605  909 -2.346   21 -3.875   21 -4.732   21 -4.020    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  2.265   16 -3.643   22 -4.398
Wright St-Lake           0  6  461  569 -2.630   23 -3.926   23 -4.882   15 -3.641    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  2.112   12 -2.935   21 -4.348
Ohio U-Chillicothe       0  6  424  518 -2.944   25 -3.979   25 -5.007   20 -4.007    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  1.926   20 -3.964   18 -4.049
Ohio U-Zanesville        0  7  433  700 -2.918   26 -3.982   26 -5.026   28 -4.760    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  1.692   26 -4.524   29 -4.996
Akron-Wayne              0  6  338  590 -3.204   27 -4.039   27 -5.192   33 -6.155    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  1.238   32 -6.393   34 -5.918
Ohio U-Lancaster         0  6  421  483 -3.124   29 -4.049   29 -5.227   17 -3.844    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  1.729   21 -4.076   14 -3.611

NIAC: strength=-4.364 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Alexandria Tech          1  7  556  618 -3.332   20 -3.681   20 -4.366   16 -3.816    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  2.798   18 -3.767   16 -3.866
St Cloud Tech            0  5  324  419 -3.369   28 -4.046   28 -5.215   29 -4.776    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28  1.490   27 -4.674   27 -4.878

Shena & Chesa: strength=-6.264 (#5)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Christendom             10  9 1192 1280 -4.528      -3.442      -3.919      -4.565      0.0000      0.0000       3.757      -5.104      -4.026
Washington Bible         5 13  976 1240 -5.143      -4.075      -5.320      -5.566      0.0000      0.0000       1.266      -6.552      -4.580
Roanoke Bible            0 11  490 1048 -4.863   35 -4.576   35 -6.494   36 -7.095    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35  0.006   35 -7.778   36 -6.412
Patrick Henry            0  5  246  330 -5.522   36 -4.644   36 -6.725   34 -6.233    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36  0.000   34 -7.039   32 -5.427

Independents: strength=-4.095 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Oakwood                  8 11 1489 1532 -0.509    1 -0.904    1 -0.931    1 -0.881    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 12.899    1 -0.160    1 -1.603
Hesston                  2  2  283  272 -2.399    3 -2.513    3 -2.669    5 -2.639    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  7.056    9 -2.658    7 -2.621
IU East                  1  7  463  645 -1.628    5 -2.827    5 -2.952   10 -3.002    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  5.755   15 -3.494    3 -2.511
Concordia-St Louis       2 11  914 1274 -2.210    6 -2.993    6 -3.201   13 -3.385    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  5.252    6 -2.336   24 -4.435
Union NE                 5  8  906  941 -2.955    9 -3.080    9 -3.350   12 -3.105    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  5.183   13 -3.040    9 -3.170
Strayer                  0  7  497  666  0.213   10 -3.141   10 -3.441    2 -1.555    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  5.481    2 -0.588    4 -2.522
Penn Tech                0  3  186  256 -1.021   15 -3.498   15 -4.006    7 -2.735    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  4.359   11 -2.879    6 -2.591
East-West                0  4  253  404 -1.831   19 -3.669   19 -4.345   23 -4.186    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  2.789   17 -3.713   25 -4.659
Webb Institute           0  1   52   72 -3.958   22 -3.876   22 -4.759   24 -4.527    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  2.081   28 -4.916   19 -4.138
Sarah Lawrence           0  2  111  146 -3.667   24 -3.973   24 -4.993   26 -4.590    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  1.885   29 -4.946   20 -4.234
Shawnee Baptist          0  5  317  452 -3.438   30 -4.057   30 -5.253   27 -4.671    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  1.485   25 -4.433   28 -4.909
Hampshire                0  4  162  338 -4.080   31 -4.165   31 -5.556   35 -7.018    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33  0.644   36 -8.094   35 -5.942
Eugene Bible             0  9  479  830 -3.597   32 -4.176   32 -5.594   32 -6.134    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  0.693   33 -6.447   33 -5.820
Albany Pharmacy          1  3  248  289 -5.346   33 -4.194   33 -5.681   31 -5.419    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31  1.050   31 -5.787   30 -5.051
Boston Baptist           0 12  768 1042 -4.248   34 -4.513   34 -6.284   30 -5.183    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34  0.369   30 -4.978   31 -5.387

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
Commonwealth CAC          0  30 0.000    1 -3.352
Ohio Regional Campus     56 104 0.350    2 -3.558
Independents             19  89 0.176    3 -4.095
NIAC                      1  12 0.077    4 -4.364
Shena & Chesa            15  38 0.283    5 -6.264

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.295 points in main ratings
     0.032 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 23 16:22:59 2019

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