Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Tennessee Temple        17 13 2284 2152 -0.531    1 -0.419    1 -0.493    1 -0.340    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 14.635    1 -0.347    1 -0.332
Central Baptist         15 19 2595 2528 -0.570    2 -0.854    2 -0.873    2 -0.676    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 13.124    2 -0.397    2 -0.955
Walla Walla             13 12 1873 1855 -1.043    3 -0.991    3 -1.041    3 -0.994    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 12.279    3 -0.830    3 -1.157
Pensacola Christian      9 16 1777 1840 -1.425    4 -1.638    4 -1.675    4 -1.630    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  9.663    4 -1.684    4 -1.576
Bethany Lutheran         4 21 1676 2021 -1.232    5 -1.917    5 -2.026    5 -1.968    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  8.817    5 -1.880    5 -2.056


NCCAA-I-Central: strength=-1.124 (#8)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MidAmerica Nazarene     23 14 2833 2758  0.061       0.580       0.361       0.234      0.0000      0.0000      18.170       0.529      -0.060
Central Baptist         15 19 2595 2528 -0.570    2 -0.854    2 -0.873    2 -0.676    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 13.124    2 -0.397    2 -0.955
York NE                  9 16 1636 1828 -0.860      -1.083      -1.102      -1.314      0.0000      0.0000      11.957      -1.692      -0.936
Oklahoma Wesleyan       10 23 2371 2640 -0.780      -1.248      -1.265      -1.168      0.0000      0.0000      11.177      -0.784      -1.551
LeTourneau               5 20 1868 2048 -0.695      -1.546      -1.566      -1.132      0.0000      0.0000      10.010      -0.666      -1.597
Central Christian KS     5 29 2370 3003 -2.040      -2.817      -2.934      -2.509      0.0000      0.0000       6.171      -1.866      -3.151

NCCAA-I-East: strength=-0.584 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Mt Vernon Nazarene      20 10 2360 2194 -0.443       0.105      -0.009      -0.173      0.0000      0.0000      16.637      -0.034      -0.313
Geneva                  19 12 2674 2485 -0.302       0.094      -0.022      -0.073      0.0000      0.0000      16.653       0.804      -0.950
Malone                  17 15 2765 2727 -0.169      -0.005      -0.118      -0.099      0.0000      0.0000      16.326       1.180      -1.378
Nyack                   20 14 2437 2344 -0.576      -0.189      -0.296      -0.370      0.0000      0.0000      15.590      -0.661      -0.080
Roberts Wesleyan         6 21 1889 2110 -0.693      -1.497      -1.502      -1.117      0.0000      0.0000      10.361      -1.163      -1.071
Houghton                 4 18 1479 1732 -1.047      -1.837      -1.915      -1.599      0.0000      0.0000       9.116      -1.798      -1.400

NCCAA-I-MidEast: strength=-1.030 (#6)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Oakland City            20 10 2485 1891 -0.632      -0.098      -0.184      -0.191      0.0000      0.0000      15.995      -0.319      -0.062
Bryan                   19 12 2400 2302 -0.915      -0.584      -0.624      -0.710      0.0000      0.0000      13.982      -0.300      -1.120
Asbury                  20 17 2687 2743 -1.551      -1.117      -1.139      -1.684      0.0000      0.0000      11.568      -1.720      -1.648
Crichton                 2 20 1596 1923 -0.661      -1.639      -1.675      -1.473      0.0000      0.0000       9.736      -1.028      -1.918

NCCAA-I-MidWest: strength=-0.087 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Cedarville              28 10 3120 2854  0.059       0.966       0.652       0.455      0.0000      0.0000      19.277       1.044      -0.134
Taylor                  25 10 2478 2041  0.171       0.902       0.600       0.806      0.0000      0.0000      19.289      -0.228       1.840
Spring Arbor            24 17 3039 3026 -0.066       0.354       0.170      -0.129      0.0000      0.0000      17.367       0.087      -0.346
Grace IN                19 14 2572 2477 -0.190       0.129       0.015      -0.168      0.0000      0.0000      16.673       0.171      -0.506
Concordia MI            10 19 2051 2243 -0.479      -0.851      -0.869      -0.810      0.0000      0.0000      12.996      -0.825      -0.795
Indiana Wesleyan         7 21 1700 1892 -0.238      -0.863      -0.881      -0.716      0.0000      0.0000      13.043      -1.644       0.212

NCCAA-I-North Central: strength=-0.863 (#5)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Olivet Nazarene          9 11 1503 1534  0.269       0.249       0.112       0.125      0.0000      0.0000      17.321       0.510      -0.260
Bethel IN               19 15 2887 2638 -0.027       0.160       0.012       0.352      0.0000      0.0000      16.960       1.356      -0.652
Trinity Christian       18 16 2416 2410 -0.626      -0.429      -0.505      -0.597      0.0000      0.0000      14.281      -0.838      -0.355
Northwestern MN         18  9 2034 1921 -1.001      -0.540      -0.577      -0.706      0.0000      0.0000      14.076      -0.737      -0.675
Trinity Int'l           16 18 2651 2625 -0.726      -0.784      -0.830      -0.681      0.0000      0.0000      13.237      -0.322      -1.040
Greenville               8 17 1812 1940 -1.068      -1.544      -1.564      -1.193      0.0000      0.0000      10.000      -1.010      -1.375
Judson IL                8 22 1919 2380 -1.171      -1.570      -1.598      -2.162      0.0000      0.0000       9.719      -2.112      -2.213
Bethany Lutheran         4 21 1676 2021 -1.232    5 -1.917    5 -2.026    5 -1.968    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  8.817    5 -1.880    5 -2.056

NCCAA-I-Northwest: strength=-1.070 (#7)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Walla Walla             13 12 1873 1855 -1.043    3 -0.991    3 -1.041    3 -0.994    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 12.279    3 -0.830    3 -1.157

NCCAA-I-South: strength=-0.579 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Palm Beach Atlantic     29  4 2852 2299 -0.953       0.528       0.304       0.027      0.0000      0.0000      17.878       0.451      -0.397
Faulkner                21 15 2808 2757  0.082       0.483       0.303       0.102      0.0000      0.0000      17.932       0.446      -0.242
Southern Wesleyan       15 17 2528 2481 -0.053      -0.049      -0.165       0.084      0.0000      0.0000      16.193       0.434      -0.266
Tennessee Temple        17 13 2284 2152 -0.531    1 -0.419    1 -0.493    1 -0.340    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 14.635    1 -0.347    1 -0.332
Chowan                  14 12 1933 1906 -0.650      -0.509      -0.539      -0.582      0.0000      0.0000      14.232      -0.319      -0.846
North Greenville        10 20 2125 2276 -0.350      -0.643      -0.687      -0.636      0.0000      0.0000      13.689      -0.498      -0.774
Piedmont GA             11 16 2309 2264 -0.850      -1.158      -1.155      -0.916      0.0000      0.0000      12.043       0.308      -2.141
Emmanuel GA              4 28 2050 2456 -0.231      -1.266      -1.285      -1.067      0.0000      0.0000      11.334      -1.479      -0.656
Pensacola Christian      9 16 1777 1840 -1.425    4 -1.638    4 -1.675    4 -1.630    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  9.663    4 -1.684    4 -1.576

NCCAA-I-West: strength=0.206 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
The Master's College    19 11 2347 2109  0.396       0.985       0.666       0.680      0.0000      0.0000      19.460       0.945       0.414
Christian Heritage      20 12 2450 2314  0.362       0.977       0.658       0.533      0.0000      0.0000      19.321       0.888       0.177
Hope Int'l               4 25 1930 2376  0.055      -0.905      -0.930      -0.788      0.0000      0.0000      12.690      -0.556      -1.020

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NCCAA-I-West             43  48 0.473    1  0.206
NCCAA-I-MidWest         113  91 0.554    2 -0.087
NCCAA-I-South           130 141 0.480    3 -0.579
NCCAA-I-East             86  90 0.489    4 -0.584
NCCAA-I-North Central   100 129 0.437    5 -0.863
NCCAA-I-MidEast          61  59 0.508    6 -1.030
NCCAA-I-Northwest        13  12 0.520    7 -1.070
NCCAA-I-Central          67 121 0.356    8 -1.124

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.295 points in main ratings
     0.032 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 23 16:22:59 2019

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