Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Lincoln CA               2  3  357  381 -0.185    1 -1.072    1 -1.238    1 -1.289    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 11.889    1 -1.095    1 -1.484
North American U.        2 15 1204 1717 -1.139    2 -2.076    2 -2.290    5 -2.966    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2  7.989    3 -1.819   10 -4.113
Arkansas Baptist         1 23 1520 2007 -0.705    3 -2.571    3 -2.744    2 -1.952    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  6.996    4 -1.915    2 -1.988
Turtle Mountain          7  3  831  760 -3.301    4 -2.635    4 -2.848    4 -2.836    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  6.380    5 -2.585    4 -3.086
East-West                2 24 1760 2373 -1.117    5 -2.911    5 -3.183    3 -2.301    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  5.858    2 -1.737    3 -2.865
Leech Lake               5  5  782  794 -3.302    6 -2.989    6 -3.310    7 -3.493    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  5.171    6 -3.244    8 -3.743
Clark St CC              1  5  438  583 -2.395    7 -3.015    7 -3.346   10 -3.968    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  4.862    8 -3.424   11 -4.512
Pratt Institute          5 18 1388 1795 -2.931    8 -3.084    8 -3.412   11 -4.070    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  4.832   16 -4.802    6 -3.338
Cheyney                  4 11 1068 1272 -2.800    9 -3.111    9 -3.454    6 -3.488    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  4.881    7 -3.261    7 -3.716
Sisseton Wahpeton        4  6  811  881 -3.765   10 -3.434   10 -3.956   12 -4.185    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  3.903    9 -3.523   12 -4.846
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Union NE                 3  8  769  909 -3.424   11 -3.456   11 -3.993    9 -3.869    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  3.864   10 -3.686    9 -4.051
U of the Bahamas         0  1   55   68 -2.314   12 -3.457   12 -3.996    8 -3.584    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  3.972   13 -4.074    5 -3.093
Cal Miramar              0  7  420  731  1.382   13 -3.538   13 -4.143   13 -4.413    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  3.420   12 -3.948   13 -4.878
Northwest Indian         0 10  550 1072  1.454   14 -3.546   14 -4.172   15 -4.530    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  3.380   14 -4.111   14 -4.949
Canadian Mennonite       8  6 1116 1089 -4.822   15 -3.781   15 -4.628   16 -4.870    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  3.139   15 -4.298   17 -5.441
Nueta Hidatsa Sahnish    1 12 1014 1179 -3.520   16 -3.897   16 -4.789   14 -4.450    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  2.887   11 -3.729   16 -5.171
St-Boniface              2 10  762  935 -4.966   17 -4.220   17 -5.597   17 -5.522    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  1.911   17 -6.069   15 -4.975
Patrick Henry            0  9  448  715 -5.043   18 -4.425   18 -6.335   18 -6.677    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  0.872   18 -7.278   18 -6.076


Indep: strength=-3.384 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Lincoln CA               2  3  357  381 -0.185    1 -1.072    1 -1.238    1 -1.289    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 11.889    1 -1.095    1 -1.484
North American U.        2 15 1204 1717 -1.139    2 -2.076    2 -2.290    5 -2.966    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2  7.989    3 -1.819   10 -4.113
Arkansas Baptist         1 23 1520 2007 -0.705    3 -2.571    3 -2.744    2 -1.952    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  6.996    4 -1.915    2 -1.988
SAGU Amer Ind            0 22 1441 2138 -0.925      -2.704      -2.957      -2.459      0.0000      0.0000       6.295      -1.822      -3.096
East-West                2 24 1760 2373 -1.117    5 -2.911    5 -3.183    3 -2.301    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  5.858    2 -1.737    3 -2.865
Clark St CC              1  5  438  583 -2.395    7 -3.015    7 -3.346   10 -3.968    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  4.862    8 -3.424   11 -4.512
Cheyney                  4 11 1068 1272 -2.800    9 -3.111    9 -3.454    6 -3.488    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  4.881    7 -3.261    7 -3.716
Union NE                 3  8  769  909 -3.424   11 -3.456   11 -3.993    9 -3.869    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  3.864   10 -3.686    9 -4.051
U of the Bahamas         0  1   55   68 -2.314   12 -3.457   12 -3.996    8 -3.584    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  3.972   13 -4.074    5 -3.093
Cal Miramar              0  7  420  731  1.382   13 -3.538   13 -4.143   13 -4.413    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  3.420   12 -3.948   13 -4.878
Northwest Indian         0 10  550 1072  1.454   14 -3.546   14 -4.172   15 -4.530    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  3.380   14 -4.111   14 -4.949
Patrick Henry            0  9  448  715 -5.043   18 -4.425   18 -6.335   18 -6.677    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  0.872   18 -7.278   18 -6.076

MCAC-NIAC: strength=-3.899 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Turtle Mountain          7  3  831  760 -3.301    4 -2.635    4 -2.848    4 -2.836    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  6.380    5 -2.585    4 -3.086
FLBC                     8  7 1136 1048 -3.365      -2.735      -3.007      -2.843      0.0000      0.0000       6.101      -3.218      -2.468
Trinity Bible           13 16 2335 2477 -2.896      -2.769      -3.055      -3.041      0.0000      0.0000       5.954      -2.219      -3.862
Leech Lake               5  5  782  794 -3.302    6 -2.989    6 -3.310    7 -3.493    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  5.171    6 -3.244    8 -3.743
Oak Hills Christian      7 18 1881 2271 -2.773      -3.008      -3.338      -3.393      0.0000      0.0000       5.146      -2.782      -4.005
Sisseton Wahpeton        4  6  811  881 -3.765   10 -3.434   10 -3.956   12 -4.185    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  3.903    9 -3.523   12 -4.846
Canadian Mennonite       8  6 1116 1089 -4.822   15 -3.781   15 -4.628   16 -4.870    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  3.139   15 -4.298   17 -5.441
Providence MB            8  7 1145 1128 -4.870      -3.827      -4.632      -4.696      0.0000      0.0000       3.097      -4.494      -4.897
Nueta Hidatsa Sahnish    1 12 1014 1179 -3.520   16 -3.897   16 -4.789   14 -4.450    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  2.887   11 -3.729   16 -5.171
St-Boniface              2 10  762  935 -4.966   17 -4.220   17 -5.597   17 -5.522    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  1.911   17 -6.069   15 -4.975

ORCC: strength=-2.077 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Miami-Hamilton          17  9 2101 1940 -1.884      -1.303      -1.505      -1.741      0.0000      0.0000      10.790      -1.304      -2.179
Miami-Middletown         4 15 1425 1757 -1.835      -2.574      -2.754      -2.614      0.0000      0.0000       6.639      -1.673      -3.556

PCAC: strength=-3.410 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Bethesda                 4 25 2080 2732 -0.266      -1.176      -1.352      -1.533      0.0000      0.0000      11.176      -0.602      -2.464
West Coast Baptist       0 16 1074 1619 -1.554      -2.954      -3.242      -3.319      0.0000      0.0000       5.191      -2.598      -4.041
Portland Bible           0 12  638 1182 -1.030      -3.333      -3.778      -4.309      0.0000      0.0000       3.949      -4.544      -4.075

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
ORCC             21  24 0.467    1 -2.077
Indep            15 138 0.098    2 -3.384
PCAC              4  53 0.070    3 -3.410
MCAC-NIAC        63  90 0.412    4 -3.899

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.218 points in main ratings
     0.028 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Tue Apr  4 18:48:40 2023

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